{"id":107713,"date":"2026-05-30T00:18:48","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T22:18:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=107713"},"modified":"2026-05-29T12:31:50","modified_gmt":"2026-05-29T10:31:50","slug":"andrew-korybko-britove-francouzi-a-nemci-jsou-ted-primo-na-prahu-ruska","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/30\/andrew-korybko-britove-francouzi-a-nemci-jsou-ted-primo-na-prahu-ruska\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Britov\u00e9, Francouzi a N\u011bmci jsou te\u010f p\u0159\u00edmo na prahu Ruska"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Zb\u00fdvaj\u00ed ve skute\u010dnosti jen t\u0159i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e: NATO kone\u010dn\u011b souhlas\u00ed s n\u011bjakou formou rusk\u00fdch n\u00e1vrh\u016f; Rusko zah\u00e1j\u00ed preventivn\u00ed v\u00e1lku proti evropsk\u00e9mu NATO v s\u00e1zce na to, \u017ee USA nebudou p\u0159\u00edmo zasahovat; nebo se Rusko pokojn\u011b pod\u0159\u00edd\u00ed Z\u00e1padu.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

P\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd telefon\u00e1t mezi prezidenty Emmanuelem Macronem a Alexandrem Luka\u0161enkem\u00a0<\/span><\/a>minul\u00fd v\u00edkend\u00a0<\/span>n\u00e1sledoval pot\u00e9, co m\u00edstop\u0159edseda rusk\u00e9 Bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed rady Dmitrij Medved\u011bv\u00a0<\/span>varoval\u00a0<\/span><\/a>p\u0159ed hrozbou podobnou t\u00e9 z roku 1941, kterou p\u0159edstavuje remilitarizace N\u011bmecka a budov\u00e1n\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>nadn\u00e1rodn\u00edho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva Spojen\u00e9ho kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>k zadr\u017een\u00ed Ruska. Tyto t\u0159i ud\u00e1losti spole\u010dn\u011b upozor\u0148uj\u00ed na to, jak se Britov\u00e9, Francouzi a N\u011bmci, tradi\u010dn\u00ed evrop\u0161t\u00ed rivalov\u00e9 Ruska, ocitli p\u0159\u00edmo na jeho prahu. Bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed d\u016fsledky jsou hlubok\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Britov\u00e9 se\u00a0<\/span>usazuj\u00ed v Estonsku\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, odkud pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed v\u00e9st rusk\u00e9 zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed na\u00a0<\/span>arkticko-baltsk\u00e9 front\u011b\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, zat\u00edmco N\u011bmci otev\u0159eli\u00a0<\/span>z\u00e1kladnu v Litv\u011b\u00a0<\/span><\/a>a Francouzi pr\u00e1v\u011b ozn\u00e1mili\u00a0<\/span>pravideln\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 cvi\u010den\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>s Polskem. Pro p\u0159ipomenut\u00ed, Estonsko hrani\u010d\u00ed s \u201epevninsk\u00fdm Ruskem\u201c, zat\u00edmco Litva a Polsko hrani\u010d\u00ed s jeho exkl\u00e1vou Kaliningrad a spojencem v oblasti vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 obrany B\u011bloruskem. \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Vojensk\u00fd Schengen\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c mezi Nizozemskem, N\u011bmeckem a Polskem by se tak mohl brzy roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it o\u00a0<\/span>Francii\u00a0<\/span><\/a>a\u00a0<\/span>pobaltsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

To by maxim\u00e1ln\u011b optimalizovalo tok voj\u00e1k\u016f a vybaven\u00ed ze z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evropy k rusk\u00fdm hranic\u00edm, a t\u00edm by odpov\u00eddalo obav\u00e1m rusk\u00fdch politik\u016f, \u017ee se EU p\u0159ipravuje na\u00a0<\/span>mo\u017enou invazi\u00a0<\/span><\/a>do jejich zem\u011b v budoucnu. Vzhledem k francouzsk\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>z\u00e1kladn\u011b v Rumunsku\u00a0<\/span><\/a>a\u00a0<\/span>vojensk\u00e9 dohod\u011b\u00a0<\/span><\/a>se sousedn\u00edm Moldavskem, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>kritick\u00e9\u00a0<\/span><\/a>k\u0159\u00eddlo\u00a0<\/a>v\u00a0ukrajinsk\u00e9m konfliktu\u00a0<\/a>, jeliko\u017e umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed Francii\u00a0pom\u00e1hat Od\u011bse\u00a0<\/a>v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b hrozby\u00a0konven\u010dn\u00ed intervence\u00a0<\/a>, by se tato zem\u011b a dal\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b mohly tak\u00e9 p\u0159idat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Aby to bylo z hlediska rusk\u00fdch n\u00e1rodn\u00edch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1jm\u016f je\u0161t\u011b znepokojiv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, N\u011bmecko ned\u00e1vno uzav\u0159elo s Ukrajinou\u00a0<\/span>dohodu o koprodukci obrany s hlubok\u00fdm \u00faderem\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, \u010d\u00edm\u017e je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ilo svou vojenskou p\u0159\u00edtomnost v r\u00e1mci toho, co Rusko pova\u017euje za svou \u201esf\u00e9ru vlivu\u201c. V\u00fdsledkem je, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed upev\u0148uje sv\u016fj vliv pod\u00e9l arkticko-baltsk\u00e9 fronty, N\u011bmecko tak \u010din\u00ed v pobaltsk\u00e9 (litevsk\u00e9) a ukrajinsk\u00e9 oblasti, zat\u00edmco Francie je ji\u017e zako\u0159en\u011bna v Polsku, Rumunsku a Moldavsku.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bmecko\u00a0<\/span>usiluje\u00a0<\/span><\/a>o vybudov\u00e1n\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed arm\u00e1dy v evropsk\u00e9m NATO, co\u017e by vy\u017eadovalo p\u0159edb\u011bhnut\u00ed Polska a ide\u00e1ln\u011b z jeho pohledu pod\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed t\u00e9to zem\u011b jako vazala, zat\u00edmco Francie a Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed jsou jadern\u00e9 mocnosti. Hrozbu, kterou p\u0159edstavuje jejich vojensko-strategick\u00e1 konvergence p\u0159\u00edmo na prahu Ruska, proto nelze p\u0159ece\u0148ovat. P\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm by to mohlo povzbudit jejich partnery k agresivn\u00edmu chov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u016f\u010di Rusku, i kdy\u017e by si mysleli, \u017ee tyto velmoci odrad\u00ed ruskou odvetu.<\/span><\/p>\n

To by byla chyba epick\u00fdch rozm\u011br\u016f, proto\u017ee Rusko nem\u016f\u017ee dovolit, aby se takov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 rozvinul, nato\u017e aby se stal \u201enov\u00fdm norm\u00e1lem\u201c, jeliko\u017e by se to rovnalo tomu, \u017ee by ho zneu\u017eili k vynucen\u00ed nekone\u010dn\u00fdch \u00fastupk\u016f, kter\u00e9 by \u010dasem vyvrcholily pod\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm Ruska a nakonec \u201ebalkanizac\u00ed\u201c. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, hork\u00e1 v\u00e1lka mezi NATO a Ruskem by byla pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nevyhnuteln\u00e1, a\u010dkoli nikdo nem\u016f\u017ee s jistotou \u0159\u00edci, zda by USA pomohly sv\u00fdm evropsk\u00fdm spojenc\u016fm, a pokud ano, do jak\u00e9 m\u00edry, nebo zda by je nechaly napospas osudu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Proto je nal\u00e9hav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e kdy jindy, aby byla evropsk\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektura reformov\u00e1na, podobn\u011b jako se o to Rusko sna\u017eilo diplomatick\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky p\u0159ed\u00a0<\/span>speci\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>operac\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>, jej\u00ed\u017e ne\u00fasp\u011bch byl d\u016fvodem, pro\u010d se Putin sna\u017eil prosadit tuto reformu vojenskou cestou. Ve skute\u010dnosti zb\u00fdvaj\u00ed u\u017e jen t\u0159i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e: NATO kone\u010dn\u011b souhlas\u00ed s n\u011bjakou formou rusk\u00fdch n\u00e1vrh\u016f; Rusko zah\u00e1j\u00ed\u00a0preventivn\u00ed v\u00e1lku proti evropsk\u00e9mu NATO\u00a0<\/a>v s\u00e1zce na to, \u017ee USA nebudou p\u0159\u00edmo zasahovat; nebo se Rusko pokojn\u011b pod\u0159\u00edd\u00ed Z\u00e1padu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Zb\u00fdvaj\u00ed ve skute\u010dnosti jen t\u0159i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e: NATO kone\u010dn\u011b souhlas\u00ed s n\u011bjakou formou rusk\u00fdch n\u00e1vrh\u016f; Rusko…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":107714,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,39,22],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107713"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=107713"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107713\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/107714"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=107713"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=107713"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=107713"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}