{"id":10762,"date":"2022-05-20T01:03:05","date_gmt":"2022-05-19T23:03:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=10762"},"modified":"2022-05-19T17:02:23","modified_gmt":"2022-05-19T15:02:23","slug":"the-swiss-connection-jak-rusko-preziva-tvrde-sankce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/05\/20\/the-swiss-connection-jak-rusko-preziva-tvrde-sankce\/","title":{"rendered":"The Swiss Connection: Jak Rusko p\u0159e\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 tvrd\u00e9 sankce"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fb4c2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-content\" data-id=\"1fb4c2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-content.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong><em>Moskva p\u0159est\u00e1la z\u00e1padn\u00ed sankce d\u00edky trval\u00e9mu v\u00fdvozu ropy a plynu a siln\u00e9mu rublu.<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span>JPM ustoupil od d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed o 35% poklesu rusk\u00e9ho HDP ve druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Lv\u00ed pod\u00edl rusk\u00fdch komodit se obchoduje p\u0159es \u0160v\u00fdcarsko a jeho t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 1000 komoditn\u00edch spole\u010dnost\u00ed.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Putin p\u0159ed n\u011bkolika t\u00fddny ozna\u010dil v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b za \u201etrag\u00e9dii\u201c a tvrdil, \u017ee ekonomick\u00e9 sankce uvalen\u00e9 na jeho zemi \u201eselhaly\u201c.\u00a0Jak se uk\u00e1zalo, zrovna neblafoval.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span>T\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce po nejtvrd\u0161\u00edch a nejl\u00e9pe koordinovan\u00fdch sankc\u00edch uvalen\u00fdch z\u00e1padn\u00edmi vl\u00e1dami se rusk\u00e1 ekonomika ukazuje jako tvrd\u00fd o\u0159\u00ed\u0161ek.\u00a0D\u00edky trval\u00e9mu v\u00fdvozu ropy a plynu a siln\u00e9mu rublu Moskva ust\u00e1la z\u00e1padn\u00ed sankce mnohem l\u00e9pe, ne\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1valo.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>V\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/markets.businessinsider.com\/news\/stocks\/russia-economy-gdp-stronger-expected-sanctions-ukraine-war-jpmorgan-ruble-2022-5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-type=\"URL\" data-id=\"https:\/\/markets.businessinsider.com\/news\/stocks\/russia-economy-gdp-stronger-expected-sanctions-ukraine-war-jpmorgan-ruble-2022-5\"><span>t\u00fddenn\u00edm sd\u011blen\u00ed<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0pro klienty zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e9m v pond\u011bl\u00ed JPMorgan Chase uvedla, \u017ee pr\u016fzkumy podnikatelsk\u00e9 d\u016fv\u011bry v zemi \u201eukazuj\u00ed na nep\u0159\u00edli\u0161 hlubokou recesi v Rusku, a proto p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed pro na\u0161e progn\u00f3zy r\u016fstu proinfla\u010dn\u00ed rizika.\u00a0Dostupn\u00e9 \u00fadaje proto neukazuj\u00ed na n\u00e1hl\u00fd kolaps ekonomick\u00e9 aktivity, alespo\u0148 ne v tuto chv\u00edli.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>JPM tak\u00e9 ustoupila od p\u0159edchoz\u00edch progn\u00f3z, \u017ee rusk\u00fd HDP klesne o 35 % ve druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed a o 7 % za cel\u00fd rok 2022, a nyn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee recese bude mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Banka v\u0161ak poznamenala, \u017ee Rusko jist\u011b poc\u00edt\u00ed dopady sou\u010dasn\u00fdch i potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch sankc\u00ed, a dodala, \u017ee rusk\u00e1 ekonomika by byla v mnohem lep\u0161\u00ed kondici, kdyby zem\u011b nenapadla Ukrajinu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>Rubl se vrac\u00ed na p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dnou \u00farove\u0148<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Mo\u017en\u00e1 p\u016fsobiv\u011bj\u0161\u00edm d\u016fkazem odolnosti rusk\u00e9 ekonomiky je, jak rychle se m\u011bna zem\u011b vzpamatovala z p\u00e1du na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku.\u00a0Navzdory spoust\u011b energetick\u00fdch a finan\u010dn\u00edch sankc\u00ed se rubl, rusk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bna, p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b dob\u0159e zotavil, dokonce se vr\u00e1til na p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dnou \u00farove\u0148.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Ve dnech bezprost\u0159edn\u011b n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch po na\u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 invazi prezidenta Vladimira Putina na Ukrajinu se rubl ok\u00e1zale propadl a v\u016f\u010di americk\u00e9mu dolaru se propadl a\u017e o 30 %.\u00a0M\u011bna vypadala odsouzen\u00e1 k z\u00e1hub\u011b, proto\u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed zem\u011b uvalily na Moskvu st\u00e1le p\u0159\u00edsn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sankce, v\u010detn\u011b opat\u0159en\u00ed omezuj\u00edc\u00edch p\u0159\u00edstup Rusk\u00e9 banky k jej\u00edm obrovsk\u00fdm m\u011bnov\u00fdm rezerv\u00e1m.\u00a0N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed analytici dokonce varovali p\u0159ed nevyhnuteln\u00fdm bankrotem, proto\u017ee Rusku do\u0161ly dolary.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Rubl v\u0161ak neklesl na dno dlouho a zotavil se jen n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f po sv\u00e9m nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm poklesu.\u00a0Na konci b\u0159ezna se rubl za\u010dal postupn\u011b zotavovat;\u00a0V polovin\u011b dubna jeho hodnota dos\u00e1hla 1 RUB = 0,013 USD, co\u017e je \u00farove\u0148 naposledy zaznamenan\u00e1 v p\u0159edve\u010der invaze.\u00a0Rubl se aktu\u00e1ln\u011b obchoduje za 0,016 USD, co\u017e je \u00farove\u0148 naposledy zaznamenan\u00e1 v lednu 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Jak lze toto zotaven\u00ed vysv\u011btlit?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Putin\u016fv po\u017eadavek, aby kupci rusk\u00e9ho plynu platili v rublech, byl tour de force.\u00a0Po po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edm odporu z\u00e1padn\u00ed spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 plynu t\u00e9to popt\u00e1vce st\u00e1le v\u00edce vyhovuj\u00ed.\u00a0Nap\u0159\u00edklad jeden z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch n\u011bmeck\u00fdch dovozc\u016f zemn\u00edho plynu VNG ned\u00e1vno otev\u0159el \u00fa\u010det u Gazprombank pro platby za rusk\u00fd plyn za podm\u00ednek Moskvy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Podle Marie Demertzis, z\u00e1stupkyn\u011b \u0159editele Bruegel, bruselsk\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho think-tanku, hr\u00e1ly platby EU za rusk\u00fd plynovodn\u00ed plyn velkou roli v podpo\u0159e m\u011bny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Navzdory v\u0161em tvrd\u00fdm slov\u016fm o vzd\u00e1n\u00ed se rusk\u00fdch energetick\u00fdch komodit se Rusku st\u00e1le da\u0159\u00ed prod\u00e1vat velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed sv\u00e9 ropy a plynu, proto\u017ee n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch sv\u011btov\u00fdch obchodn\u00edk\u016f s komoditami nemaj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 v\u00fd\u010ditky ohledn\u011b financov\u00e1n\u00ed Putinovy \u200b\u200bv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 ma\u0161in\u00e9rie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Oleg Ustenko, ekonomick\u00fd poradce ukrajinsk\u00e9ho prezidenta Volodymyra Zelensk\u00e9ho, p\u00edsemn\u011b vyzval tyto \u010dty\u0159i spole\u010dnosti, aby okam\u017eit\u011b zastavily obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s rusk\u00fdmi uhlovod\u00edky, proto\u017ee zisky z exportu financuj\u00ed moskevsk\u00e9 n\u00e1kupy zbran\u00ed a raket.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Podle \u00fadaj\u016f o sledov\u00e1n\u00ed lod\u00ed a p\u0159\u00edstavech \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti Vitol, Glencore a Gunvor a singapursk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost Trafigura nad\u00e1le obchoduj\u00ed s velk\u00fdmi objemy rusk\u00e9 ropy a produkt\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b nafty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Vitol se zav\u00e1zal, \u017ee p\u0159estane nakupovat ruskou ropu do konce tohoto roku, ale to je je\u0161t\u011b daleko.\u00a0Trafigura ozn\u00e1mila, \u017ee od 15. kv\u011btna p\u0159estane nakupovat ropu od rusk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti Rosn\u011bf\u0165, ale st\u00e1le m\u016f\u017ee odeb\u00edrat ruskou ropu od jin\u00fdch dodavatel\u016f.\u00a0Glencore prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee neuzav\u0159e \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 \u201enov\u00e9\u201c obchodn\u00ed dohody s Ruskem.\u00a0Skute\u010dnost je v\u0161ak takov\u00e1, \u017ee zat\u00edmco se skupina G7 zav\u00e1zala zak\u00e1zat nebo postupn\u011b ukon\u010dit dovoz rusk\u00e9 ropy a USA, Kanada, Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed a Austr\u00e1lie zavedly \u00fapln\u00e9 z\u00e1kazy, EU to st\u00e1le nem\u016f\u017ee ud\u011blat, aby dos\u00e1hla pokroku, proto\u017ee Ma\u010farsko zak\u00e1zat rukojm\u00ed.\u00a0Mezit\u00edm Indie a \u010c\u00edna tvo\u0159\u00ed velkou \u010d\u00e1st rusk\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>Zlat\u00e9 tele \u0160v\u00fdcarska<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st viny le\u017e\u00ed na \u0160v\u00fdcarsku.\u00a0Lv\u00ed pod\u00edl rusk\u00fdch komodit se obchoduje p\u0159es \u0160v\u00fdcarsko a jeho t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 1000 komoditn\u00edch spole\u010dnost\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u0160v\u00fdcarsko je v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm glob\u00e1ln\u00edm finan\u010dn\u00edm centrem s prosperuj\u00edc\u00edm komoditn\u00edm sektorem, p\u0159esto\u017ee je daleko od v\u0161ech sv\u011btov\u00fdch obchodn\u00edch cest, nem\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edstup k mo\u0159i, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 b\u00fdval\u00e1 koloni\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed a \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 komodity.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Oliver Classen, medi\u00e1ln\u00ed pracovn\u00edk \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9 nevl\u00e1dn\u00ed organizace Public Eye, \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee \u201etento sektor tvo\u0159\u00ed mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pod\u00edl na \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9m HDP ne\u017e cestovn\u00ed ruch nebo stroj\u00edrensk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl\u201c.\u00a0Podle zpr\u00e1vy \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy z roku 2018 dosahuje objem obchodu s komoditami t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 1 bilionu dolar\u016f (903,8 miliardy eur).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Deutsche Welle ozn\u00e1milo, \u017ee 80 % rusk\u00fdch komodit se obchoduje p\u0159es \u0160v\u00fdcarsko, uv\u00e1d\u00ed zpr\u00e1va \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9ho velvyslanectv\u00ed v Moskv\u011b.\u00a0Asi t\u0159etinu komodit tvo\u0159\u00ed ropa a plyn a dv\u011b t\u0159etiny obecn\u00e9 kovy jako zinek, m\u011b\u010f a hlin\u00edk.\u00a0Jin\u00fdmi slovy, dohody podepsan\u00e9 na \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00fdch desk\u00e1ch p\u0159\u00edmo p\u0159isp\u00edvaj\u00ed k udr\u017een\u00ed voln\u00e9ho toku rusk\u00e9 ropy a plynu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee v\u00fdvoz plynu a ropy je hlavn\u00edm zdrojem p\u0159\u00edjmu Ruska a tvo\u0159\u00ed 30\u201340 % rusk\u00e9ho rozpo\u010dtu, nelze \u00falohu \u0160v\u00fdcarska v t\u00e9to v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 rovnici p\u0159ehl\u00e9dnout.\u00a0V roce 2021 vyd\u011blaly rusk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti jen na v\u00fdvozu ropy kolem 180 miliard dolar\u016f (163 miliard eur).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>I zde se bohu\u017eel \u0160v\u00fdcarsko chovalo ke sv\u00e9mu obchodu s komoditami d\u011btsk\u00fdmi rukavicemi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Podle DW se s komoditami \u010dasto obchoduje p\u0159\u00edmo mezi vl\u00e1dami a prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm komoditn\u00edch burz.\u00a0Lze s nimi ale tak\u00e9 voln\u011b obchodovat a \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti se d\u00edky sv\u00e9mu kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9mu bohatstv\u00ed specializovaly na p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd prodej.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>P\u0159i transakc\u00edch s komoditami pou\u017e\u00edvali \u0161v\u00fdcar\u0161t\u00ed obchodn\u00edci s komoditami jako preferovan\u00e9 n\u00e1stroje akreditivy.\u00a0Banka poskytne obchodn\u00edkovi \u00fav\u011br a jako z\u00e1ruku obdr\u017e\u00ed dokument, kter\u00fd z n\u00ed \u010din\u00ed vlastn\u00edka zbo\u017e\u00ed.\u00a0Jakmile kupuj\u00edc\u00ed zaplat\u00ed bance, je dokument (a vlastnictv\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed) p\u0159eveden na obchodn\u00edka.\u00a0Tento syst\u00e9m poskytuje obchodn\u00edk\u016fm v\u00edce \u00fav\u011brov\u00fdch linek, ani\u017e by museli kontrolovat jejich bonitu, a banka m\u00e1 hodnotu zbo\u017e\u00ed jako z\u00e1ruku.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Jde o uk\u00e1zkov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edklad tranzitn\u00edho obchodu, p\u0159i kter\u00e9m p\u0159es \u0160v\u00fdcarsko proud\u00ed pouze pen\u00edze, ale skute\u010dn\u00e9 suroviny se \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9 p\u016fdy obvykle nedot\u00fdkaj\u00ed.\u00a0Na stole \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00fdch celn\u00edch org\u00e1n\u016f tak neskon\u010d\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 podrobnosti o rozsahu transakce, co\u017e vede k velmi nep\u0159esn\u00fdm informac\u00edm o objemu tok\u016f surovin.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><span>Ve\u0161ker\u00e9 obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s komoditami je podhodnoceno a nedostate\u010dn\u011b regulov\u00e1no.\u00a0Mus\u00edte se prohrabat, abyste sb\u00edrali data, a ne v\u0161echny informace jsou dostupn\u00e9, \u0159ekla DW Elisabeth B\u00fcrgi Bonanomi, lektorka pr\u00e1va a udr\u017eitelnosti na univerzit\u011b v Bernu.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span>Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee nedostatek regulace je velmi p\u0159ita\u017eliv\u00fd pro obchodn\u00edky s komoditami \u2013 zejm\u00e9na pro ty, kte\u0159\u00ed obchoduj\u00ed s komoditami t\u011b\u017een\u00fdmi v nedemokratick\u00fdch zem\u00edch, jako je Demokratick\u00e1 republika Kongo.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><span>Na rozd\u00edl od finan\u010dn\u00edho trhu, kde existuj\u00ed pravidla pro boj proti pran\u00ed \u0161pinav\u00fdch pen\u011bz a nez\u00e1konn\u00fdm \u010di nez\u00e1konn\u00fdm finan\u010dn\u00edm tok\u016fm a org\u00e1n dohledu nad finan\u010dn\u00edm trhem, v sou\u010dasnosti nic takov\u00e9ho pro obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s komoditami neexistuje, \u0159ekl ARD David M\u00fchlemann, finan\u010dn\u00ed a pr\u00e1vn\u00ed expert z Public Eye. .<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span>Ani to se v dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b nezm\u011bn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Po\u017eadavek na dozorov\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad pro surovinov\u00fd sektor podle modelu finan\u010dn\u00edho trhu, kter\u00fd vznesly mimo jin\u00e9 \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9 nevl\u00e1dn\u00ed organizace Public Eye a \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e1 Strana zelen\u00fdch, zat\u00edm neusp\u011bl.\u00a0Thomas Mattern ze \u0160v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9 lidov\u00e9 strany (SVP) se vyslovil proti takov\u00e9 instituci a zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee \u0160v\u00fdcarsko by m\u011blo z\u016fstat neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed: &#8222;Nepot\u0159ebujeme \u017e\u00e1dnou dal\u0161\u00ed regulaci, a to ani v sektoru surovin.&#8220;<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c57238 quelle dc-has-condition dc-condition-empty elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c57238\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/commodities\/swiss-connection-how-russia-weathering-tough-sanctions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">ZDROJ: THE SWISS CONNECTION: HOW RUSSIA IS WEATHERING TOUGH SANCTIONS<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Moskva p\u0159est\u00e1la z\u00e1padn\u00ed sankce d\u00edky trval\u00e9mu v\u00fdvozu ropy a plynu a siln\u00e9mu rublu. JPM ustoupil&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5139,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[350,22,125,467],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10762"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10762"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10762\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5139"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10762"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10762"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10762"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}