{"id":107577,"date":"2026-05-28T00:16:38","date_gmt":"2026-05-27T22:16:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=107577"},"modified":"2026-05-27T12:43:17","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T10:43:17","slug":"cez-vstoupil-do-roku-2026-silne-cisty-zisk-rostl-vyhled-se-zvedl-a-trh-znovu-resi-kam-az-muze-akcie-dojit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/28\/cez-vstoupil-do-roku-2026-silne-cisty-zisk-rostl-vyhled-se-zvedl-a-trh-znovu-resi-kam-az-muze-akcie-dojit\/","title":{"rendered":"\u010cEZ vstoupil do roku 2026 siln\u011b: \u010dist\u00fd zisk rostl, v\u00fdhled se zvedl a trh znovu \u0159e\u0161\u00ed, kam a\u017e m\u016f\u017ee akcie doj\u00edt"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

U \u010cEZ u\u017e d\u00e1vno nejde jen o to, kolik firma za jedno \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed vyd\u011blala. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 v\u00fdsledkov\u00e1 sezona je z\u00e1rove\u0148 testem toho, zda energetick\u00fd gigant st\u00e1le dr\u017e\u00ed svou ziskovou s\u00edlu, jak v\u00fdrazn\u011b m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159ekvapit trh a jestli se kolem akcie znovu neza\u010dne l\u00e1mat debata o dividend\u011b, investic\u00edch i budouc\u00ed roli st\u00e1tu. Prvn\u00ed leto\u0161n\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla p\u0159inesla pr\u00e1v\u011b takov\u00fd moment, kdy samotn\u00e9 tabulky \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed jen \u010d\u00e1st p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhu a podstatn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je to, co nazna\u010duj\u00ed pro dal\u0161\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce. V pozad\u00ed toti\u017e nejde jen o kvart\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdkon, ale tak\u00e9 o to, zda \u010cEZ z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 jedn\u00edm z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch titul\u016f pra\u017esk\u00e9 burzy i pro dal\u0161\u00ed f\u00e1zi trhu.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edsla vypadaj\u00ed l\u00e9pe, ne\u017e nazna\u010duje samotn\u00fd pokles EBITDA<\/strong>
\nZ\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u010dten\u00ed v\u00fdsledk\u016f ukazuje, \u017ee \u010cEZ sice meziro\u010dn\u011b oslabil na provozn\u00ed \u00farovni, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 p\u0159ekonal tr\u017en\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed v n\u011bkolika d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch \u0159\u00e1dc\u00edch v\u00fdsledovky. Podle dostupn\u00e9ho tr\u017en\u00edho konsenzu se \u010dekaly tr\u017eby 80,2 miliardy CZK, EBITDA 34,4 miliardy CZK a EBIT 19,8 miliardy CZK, zat\u00edmco skute\u010dnost dos\u00e1hla 85 miliard CZK, 35,3 miliardy CZK a 21,8 miliardy CZK. O\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00fd \u010dist\u00fd zisk 13,5 miliardy CZK byl tak\u00e9 nad medi\u00e1nem trhu 12,7 miliardy CZK, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee v\u00fdsledky nebyly jen solidn\u00ed absolutn\u011b, ale dopadly l\u00e9pe i ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s t\u00edm, co \u010dekali analytici. Pro akcii je to podstatn\u00e9 hlavn\u011b proto, \u017ee po slab\u0161\u00edm srovn\u00e1vac\u00edm efektu na \u00farovni cen elekt\u0159iny trh pot\u0159eboval vid\u011bt, zda firma st\u00e1le um\u00ed dodat v\u00fdsledek nad o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, a pr\u00e1v\u011b to prvn\u00ed kvart\u00e1l potvrdil.[1]<\/a><\/p>\n

Slab\u0161\u00ed provozn\u00ed zisk stla\u010dily ceny elekt\u0159iny, ne rozpad hlavn\u00edho byznysu<\/strong>
\nHlavn\u00edm d\u016fvodem meziro\u010dn\u00edho poklesu EBITDA nebyla provozn\u00ed nestabilita firmy, ale ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed realiza\u010dn\u00ed ceny vyroben\u00e9 elekt\u0159iny, co\u017e je pro interpretaci v\u00fdsledk\u016f z\u00e1sadn\u00ed. Provozn\u00ed v\u00fdnosy v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed meziro\u010dn\u011b klesly o 9 % na 85 miliard CZK a EBITDA se sn\u00ed\u017eila o 18 % na 35,3 miliardy CZK, p\u0159esto \u010dist\u00fd zisk vzrostl o 13 % na 14,5 miliardy CZK. \u010cEZ v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed vyrobil 13,8 TWh elekt\u0159iny, tedy o 4 % m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e p\u0159ed rokem, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e pokles souvisel hlavn\u011b s del\u0161\u00edmi pl\u00e1novan\u00fdmi odst\u00e1vkami v Temel\u00edn\u011b kv\u016fli p\u0159echodu na del\u0161\u00ed palivov\u00fd cyklus. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b v\u00fdroba v paroplynov\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rn\u011b Po\u010derady meziro\u010dn\u011b vzrostla t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o 50 %, co\u017e ukazuje, \u017ee v\u00fdrobn\u00ed mix z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 aktivn\u011b \u0159\u00edzen\u00fd a firma reaguje na podm\u00ednky trhu i dostupnost jednotliv\u00fdch zdroj\u016f.[2]<\/a><\/p>\n

Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed zpr\u00e1vou je vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdhled pro cel\u00fd rok 2026<\/strong>
\nNejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm sign\u00e1lem z v\u00fdsledk\u016f nen\u00ed samotn\u00fd kvart\u00e1l, ale zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed leto\u0161n\u00edho v\u00fdhledu, proto\u017ee firma posunula o\u010dek\u00e1vanou EBITDA z p\u016fvodn\u00edch 103 a\u017e 108 miliard CZK na 107 a\u017e 112 miliard CZK a o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00fd \u010dist\u00fd zisk z 27 a\u017e 31 miliard CZK na 30 a\u017e 34 miliard CZK. \u010cEZ jako hlavn\u00ed d\u016fvody uvedl r\u016fst realiza\u010dn\u00edch cen v\u00fdroby a vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed objem v\u00fdroby i t\u011b\u017eby v d\u016fsledku krize v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu a r\u016fstu tr\u017en\u00edch cen energetick\u00fdch komodit, co\u017e je velmi konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed sign\u00e1l, \u017ee lep\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdhled nestoj\u00ed na jednor\u00e1zov\u00e9 \u00fa\u010detn\u00ed polo\u017ece, ale na zm\u011bn\u011b provozn\u00edch a tr\u017en\u00edch podm\u00ednek. Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 je i srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s analytiky, proto\u017ee na str\u00e1nce \u010cEZ byl k 28. dubnu 2026 medi\u00e1n odhad\u016f pro leto\u0161n\u00ed EBITDA 111,1 miliardy CZK a pro \u010dist\u00fd zisk 35,5 miliardy CZK, tak\u017ee aktualizovan\u00fd firemn\u00ed v\u00fdhled EBITDA se u\u017e prakticky pohybuje v p\u00e1smu, kter\u00e9 odpov\u00edd\u00e1 d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu tr\u017en\u00edmu konsenzu. U zisku je ale pot\u0159eba rozli\u0161ovat mezi firemn\u011b reportovan\u00fdm o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdm \u010dist\u00fdm ziskem a analytickou polo\u017ekou \u010dist\u00fd zisk, tak\u017ee p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 srovn\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto dvou \u010d\u00edsel nen\u00ed \u00fapln\u011b p\u0159esn\u00e9, i kdy\u017e celkov\u00e9 vyzn\u011bn\u00ed je po zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fdhledu jednozna\u010dn\u011b lep\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku.1[3]<\/a> <\/sup>[1]<\/p>\n

Distribuce a investice ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee firma nehraje jen na kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd zisk<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vedle v\u00fdsledovky stoj\u00ed za pozornost i provozn\u00ed data ze s\u00edt\u00ed a investi\u010dn\u00ed tempo, proto\u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b tyto polo\u017eky \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed v\u00edc o dlouhodob\u00e9 kvalit\u011b p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhu ne\u017e samotn\u00fd jeden kvart\u00e1l. Distribuce elekt\u0159iny v s\u00edti \u010cEZ Distribuce meziro\u010dn\u011b vzrostla o 4 % na 9,9 TWh, po klimatick\u00e9m a kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00edm p\u0159epo\u010dtu o 4 %, zat\u00edmco distribuce plynu na \u00fazem\u00ed skupiny GasNet stoupla o 8 % na 25,5 TWh, z \u010deho\u017e 3 % p\u0159ipadla na chladn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed a 5 % na akvizici spole\u010dnosti Gas Distribution. Je\u0161t\u011b v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je v\u00fdvoj investic, proto\u017ee kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9 v\u00fddaje dos\u00e1hly v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 15,7 miliardy CZK, tedy meziro\u010dn\u011b o 130 % v\u00edce, a sm\u011b\u0159ovaly hlavn\u011b do bezemisn\u00edch zdroj\u016f, modernizace a pos\u00edlen\u00ed distribu\u010dn\u00edch s\u00edt\u00ed a p\u0159\u00edpravy strategick\u00fdch energetick\u00fdch projekt\u016f. Firma z\u00e1rove\u0148 zah\u00e1jila v\u00fdstavbu ZEVO M\u011bln\u00edk, tak\u017ee leto\u0161n\u00ed v\u00fdsledky nep\u016fsob\u00ed jen jako p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh o solidn\u00edm zisku, ale tak\u00e9 jako potvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee \u010cEZ v\u00fdrazn\u011b zrychluje investi\u010dn\u00ed f\u00e1zi sv\u00e9 transformace.2<\/sup><\/p>\n

Pro akcii bude d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 hlavn\u011b to, zda se leto\u0161n\u00ed s\u00edla p\u0159elije i do roku 2027<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pro investory je nyn\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9, \u017ee prvn\u00ed \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed zlep\u0161ilo leto\u0161n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 nevy\u0159e\u0161ilo ot\u00e1zku, jak udr\u017eiteln\u00e1 tato ziskovost bude v dal\u0161\u00edch letech. Podle tabulky analytick\u00fdch odhad\u016f na webu \u010cEZ je pro rok 2027 medi\u00e1n o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 EBITDA 105,8 miliardy CZK a \u010dist\u00e9ho zisku 30,5 miliardy CZK, tedy n\u00ed\u017ee ne\u017e u roku 2026, co\u017e nazna\u010duje, \u017ee trh st\u00e1le po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s ur\u010dit\u00fdm ochlazen\u00edm v\u00fdsledk\u016f po leto\u0161n\u00edm roce. Sou\u010dasn\u011b firma v r\u00e1mci earnings call uvedla, \u017ee \u010dist\u00fd dluh z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b na 200 miliard\u00e1ch CZK a \u017ee p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt z pohledu investic rekordn\u00ed, tak\u017ee valuace akcie se bude d\u00e1l l\u00e1mat mezi vysokou schopnost\u00ed generovat hotovost a rostouc\u00ed kapit\u00e1lovou n\u00e1ro\u010dnost\u00ed transformace. Pokud ale \u010cEZ udr\u017e\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed realiza\u010dn\u00ed ceny, stabiln\u00ed provoz v\u00fdrobn\u00edch zdroj\u016f a sou\u010dasn\u011b potvrd\u00ed celoro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdhled v dal\u0161\u00edch kvart\u00e1lech, m\u016f\u017ee se dne\u0161n\u00ed debata na trhu posunout od obav z normalizace zisk\u016f zp\u011bt k tomu, jak vysoko je\u0161t\u011b m\u016f\u017ee j\u00edt dividenda a zda titul neza\u010dne znovu dost\u00e1vat lep\u0161\u00ed ocen\u011bn\u00ed.3[4]<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n

Ol\u00edvia Lacenov\u00e1, analyti\u010dka <\/strong>Wonderinterest Trading Ltd.<\/strong><\/a><\/h4>\n

[1] V\u00fdhledov\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed vych\u00e1zej\u00ed z p\u0159edpoklad\u016f a aktu\u00e1ln\u00edch o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 mohou b\u00fdt nep\u0159esn\u00e9, nebo z aktu\u00e1ln\u00edho ekonomick\u00e9ho prost\u0159ed\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se m\u016f\u017ee zm\u011bnit. Takov\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed nejsou z\u00e1rukou budouc\u00ed v\u00fdkonnosti. Zahrnuj\u00ed rizika a dal\u0161\u00ed nejistoty, kter\u00e9 se daj\u00ed t\u011b\u017eko p\u0159edv\u00eddat. V\u00fdsledky se mohou podstatn\u011b li\u0161it od v\u00fdsledk\u016f vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00fdch nebo implikovan\u00fdch v jak\u00fdchkoli v\u00fdhledov\u00fdch prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edch.<\/p>\n

[1]<\/a> https:\/\/www.akcie.cz\/komentare-a-doporuceni\/217596-cez-vysledky-hospodareni-za-1q-2026\/<\/a><\/p>\n

[2]<\/a> https:\/\/www.cez.cz\/nextcez\/cs\/pro-media\/tiskove-zpravy\/skupina-cez-v-prvnim-ctvrtleti-2026-vydelala-145-mld.-kc-234236<\/a><\/p>\n

[3]<\/a> https:\/\/www.cez.cz\/nextcez\/cs\/pro-investory\/akcie\/analytici-o-cez<\/a><\/p>\n

[4]<\/a> https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4904658-cez-a-s-czavf-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

U \u010cEZ u\u017e d\u00e1vno nejde jen o to, kolik firma za jedno \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed vyd\u011blala. Ka\u017ed\u00e1…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":102726,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1298,45,7183,11045,3287],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107577"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=107577"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107577\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/102726"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=107577"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=107577"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=107577"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}