{"id":107511,"date":"2026-05-27T03:49:09","date_gmt":"2026-05-27T01:49:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=107511"},"modified":"2026-05-27T03:49:09","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T01:49:09","slug":"dalsi-rana-bude-bolestivejsi-rusti-experti-signalizuji-neco-vetsiho-nez-odvetu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/27\/dalsi-rana-bude-bolestivejsi-rusti-experti-signalizuji-neco-vetsiho-nez-odvetu\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201eDal\u0161\u00ed r\u00e1na bude bolestiv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed\u201c: Ru\u0161t\u00ed experti signalizuj\u00ed n\u011bco v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho ne\u017e odvetu"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Po ukrajinsk\u00e9m \u00fatoku na vysokou \u0161kolu ve Starob\u011blsku a zavra\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed nevinn\u00fdch d\u011bt\u00ed ru\u0161t\u00ed strategi\u010dt\u00ed analytici popisuj\u00ed posun sm\u011brem k \u201e\u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 eskalaci\u201c proti Kyjevu a diskutuj\u00ed o \u0161ir\u0161\u00edch rizic\u00edch pro Evropu.<\/h3>\n

Rusk\u00e9 ministerstvo zahrani\u010d\u00ed vydalo 25. kv\u011btna d\u016frazn\u00e9 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed ohledn\u011b Ukrajiny. Odsoudilo ned\u00e1vn\u00fd \u00fatok ukrajinsk\u00fdch sil na budovu vysok\u00e9 \u0161koly a kolej ve Starob\u011blsku, kter\u00fd si vy\u017e\u00e1dal smrt 21 student\u016f a mnoho zran\u011bn\u00fdch, a varovalo, \u017ee incident byl pro Rusko posledn\u00ed kapkou a \u017ee jeho\u00a0<\/span>\u201epoh\u00e1r trp\u011blivosti p\u0159etekl\u201c.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Podle ministerstva zahrani\u010d\u00ed bude rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da nyn\u00ed systematicky \u00fato\u010dit na za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed obrann\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu v Kyjev\u011b. Moskva vyzvala cizince, v\u010detn\u011b diplomat\u016f a z\u00e1stupc\u016f mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch organizac\u00ed, aby\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\u201eco nejd\u0159\u00edve\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0opustili ukrajinsk\u00e9 hlavn\u00ed m\u011bsto , a doporu\u010dila civilist\u016fm, aby se k za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm obrann\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu vyh\u00fdbali.<\/span><\/p>\n

V n\u00e1vaznosti na toto prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed po\u017e\u00e1dal list Kommersant rusk\u00e9 experty o posouzen\u00ed sd\u011blen\u00ed ministerstva zahrani\u010d\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrej Ilnickij, vojensk\u00fd expert, \u010dlen prezidia Rady pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed a obrannou politiku (CFDP):<\/span><\/h3>\n

Prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed ministerstva zahrani\u010d\u00ed ohledn\u011b c\u00edlen\u00e9ho \u00fatoku na vzd\u011bl\u00e1vac\u00ed instituci ve Starob\u011blsku, kter\u00fd vedl k \u00famrt\u00ed student\u016f, zd\u016fraznilo, \u017ee \u201epoh\u00e1r trp\u011blivosti\u201c p\u0159etekl. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee mno\u017estv\u00ed utrpen\u00ed a hn\u011bvu, kter\u00e9 spole\u010dnost a st\u00e1t dok\u00e1\u017eou sn\u00e9st, dos\u00e1hlo ur\u010dit\u00e9ho bodu zlomu. V takov\u00e9 situaci se p\u0159echod ke strategii \u201e\u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 eskalace\u201c jev\u00ed jako racion\u00e1ln\u00ed nutnost.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Je nezbytn\u00e9 pochopit, \u017ee duchovn\u00ed podstata \u201e\u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 eskalace\u201c nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v pomst\u011b, ale v mor\u00e1ln\u00edm vztahu p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny a n\u00e1sledku: spravedlnost p\u016fsob\u00ed jako objektivn\u00ed duchovn\u00ed z\u00e1kon, forma odplaty, kter\u00e9 se nelze vyhnout. Z vojensk\u00e9ho hlediska tato strategie zahrnuje postupn\u00e9 zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f pro ukrajinsk\u00e9 nacionalisty a jejich z\u00e1padn\u00ed partnery.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Protivn\u00edk si mus\u00ed uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd krok, kter\u00fd ud\u011bl\u00e1me na eskala\u010dn\u00edm \u017eeb\u0159\u00ed\u010dku, vys\u00edl\u00e1 jasn\u00fd sign\u00e1l o na\u0161ich v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdch \u00famyslech, nevyhnuteln\u00e9m roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed \u00fader\u016f a \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch prost\u0159edk\u016f a ukazuje, \u017ee p\u0159edchoz\u00ed limity omezen\u00ed byly vy\u010derp\u00e1ny a dal\u0161\u00ed \u00fader bude je\u0161t\u011b bolestiv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a zp\u016fsob\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u0161kody.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\"RT\"<\/picture>\n
\n
Andrej Ilnickij \u00a9 Sputnik \/ Vadim Grishankin<\/span><\/em><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Vasilij Ka\u0161in, \u0159editel Centra pro komplexn\u00ed evropsk\u00e1 a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed studia na N\u00e1rodn\u00ed v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9 univerzit\u011b Vysok\u00e9 \u0161koly ekonomick\u00e9, \u010dlen CFDP<\/span><\/h3>\n

V\u011b\u0159\u00edm, \u017ee zintenzivn\u011bn\u00ed \u00fader\u016f na Kyjev je nevyhnutelnou reakc\u00ed na ned\u00e1vnou eskalaci ukrajinsk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f hluboko na rusk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed. Pokud Rusko zintenzivn\u00ed sv\u00e9 \u00fadery na nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 m\u011bsto, ani\u017e by se muselo ob\u00e1vat vedlej\u0161\u00edch \u0161kod, bude m\u00edt v\u00edce p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed zni\u010dit ukrajinsk\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na v\u00fdrobu dron\u016f a jejich z\u00e1soby. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se t\u00edm zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed tlak na ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady, aby zah\u00e1jily jedn\u00e1n\u00ed. Nav\u00edc v Rusku existuj\u00ed tac\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed prosazuj\u00ed rozhodn\u00e9 odvetn\u00e9 \u00fadery.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\"RT\"<\/picture>\n
\n
Vasilij Ka\u0161in \u00a9 Sputnik \/ Vitalij Belousov<\/span><\/em><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Sergej Poletajev, analytik, \u010dlen CFDP, spoluzakladatel a redaktor projektu Vatfor:\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n

Je rozd\u00edl mezi prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edmi a vojenskou proveditelnost\u00ed. Kyjev je z hlediska protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany nejv\u00edce opevn\u011bn\u00e9 m\u011bsto na Ukrajin\u011b (a mo\u017en\u00e1 i v Evrop\u011b, s v\u00fdjimkou Ruska).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Zimn\u00ed \u00fatoky na energetickou infrastrukturu Kyjeva a pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed vojensk\u00fdch objekt\u016f a velitelsk\u00fdch center opakovan\u011b zd\u016fraznily slo\u017eitost a n\u00e1kladnost prolomen\u00ed kyjevsk\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany. V\u010derej\u0161\u00ed ud\u00e1losti v\u0161ak odhalily, \u017ee schopnosti protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany v okol\u00ed Kyjeva byly dostate\u010dn\u011b vy\u010derp\u00e1ny na to, aby byl masov\u00fd \u00fatok \u00fa\u010dinn\u00fd.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u011b\u0159\u00edm, \u017ee to byl hlavn\u00ed d\u016fvod zm\u011bny v na\u0161em paradigmatu leteck\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f. Uvid\u00edme, jak se prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed ministerstva zahrani\u010d\u00ed prom\u011bn\u00ed v \u010diny.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\"RT\"<\/picture>\n
\n
Sergej Poletajev<\/span><\/em><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Dmitrij Suslov, z\u00e1stupce \u0159editele Centra pro komplexn\u00ed evropsk\u00e1 a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed studia na N\u00e1rodn\u00ed v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9 univerzit\u011b Vysok\u00e9 \u0161koly ekonomick\u00e9, \u010dlen CFDP:<\/span><\/h3>\n

P\u0159echod k systematick\u00fdm \u00fader\u016fm na za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed obrann\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu a rozhodovac\u00ed centra v Kyjev\u011b byl ji\u017e d\u00e1vno o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd. Vzhledem k zintenzivn\u011bn\u00ed teroristick\u00fdch aktivit kyjevsk\u00e9ho re\u017eimu se to stalo naprosto nezbytn\u00fdm. Nav\u00edc s ohledem na vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1sob raket pro z\u00e1padn\u00ed syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany dod\u00e1van\u00e9 Kyjevu je to nyn\u00ed technicky provediteln\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Barbarsk\u00fd \u00fatok ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil na Starob\u011blsk znamenal vrchol jejich stup\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edch se teroristick\u00fdch aktivit proti Rusku, kter\u00e9 se stup\u0148uj\u00ed ji\u017e m\u011bs\u00edce. Mezi tyto akce pat\u0159ily st\u00e1le rozs\u00e1hlej\u0161\u00ed \u00fatoky na d\u00e1lku zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na civiln\u00ed infrastrukturu hluboko na rusk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Evropa hraje v t\u011bchto \u00fatoc\u00edch p\u0159\u00edmou roli, proto\u017ee v\u00fdroba dron\u016f pro Ukrajinu prob\u00edh\u00e1 na jej\u00edm \u00fazem\u00ed. Evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b tak\u00e9 umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed t\u011bmto dron\u016fm pr\u016flet p\u0159es sv\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed a poskytuj\u00ed Kyjevu kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 informace pou\u017eit\u00e9 pro \u00fadery. C\u00edlem t\u011bchto \u00fatok\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b nelidsk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku na vysokou \u0161kolu ve Starob\u011blsku, je zhatit jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e1 m\u011bla b\u00fdt v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch t\u00fddnech obnovena za zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n\u00ed USA. Tato jedn\u00e1n\u00ed byla zalo\u017eena na tzv. dohod\u00e1ch z Anchorage (kter\u00e9 stanovily, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e9 s\u00edly se mus\u00ed st\u00e1hnout z \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e1 okupuj\u00ed v Don\u011bck\u00e9 lidov\u00e9 republice, jako prim\u00e1rn\u00ed podm\u00ednku pro p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed). Evropsk\u00e9 elity tou\u017e\u00ed po prodlou\u017een\u00ed konfliktu a v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee to nakonec povede ke kritick\u00e9mu vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska a d\u00e1 jim \u010das na pos\u00edlen\u00ed vlastn\u00edch vojensk\u00fdch zdroj\u016f. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se Evropa a Kyjev sna\u017e\u00ed donutit Rusko k \u00fastupk\u016fm, kter\u00e9 by znemo\u017enily jakoukoli p\u0159edstavu o jeho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V tomto kontextu maj\u00ed rusk\u00e9 systematick\u00e9 \u00fatoky na Kyjev demonstrovat, \u017ee cena t\u00e9to strategie pro ukrajinsk\u00fd re\u017eim m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt p\u0159emr\u0161t\u011bn\u011b vysok\u00e1. To s sebou nese nejen materi\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0161kody (vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee v Kyjev\u011b se nach\u00e1z\u00ed \u0159ada podnik\u016f obrann\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu), ale tak\u00e9 politickou a psychologickou \u00fanavu obyvatelstva v d\u016fsledku prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lky. Hlavn\u00ed m\u011bsto Ukrajiny bylo doned\u00e1vna relativn\u011b bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 a d\u016fsledn\u00e9 \u00fatoky by mohly zes\u00edlit tlak ve\u0159ejnosti na vl\u00e1du, aby ukon\u010dila nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 akce na z\u00e1klad\u011b podm\u00ednek dohod z Anchorage.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\"RT\"<\/picture>\n
\n
Dmitrij Suslov \u00a9 Sputnik \/ Anastasia Petrova<\/span><\/em><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Nav\u00edc rostouc\u00ed nedostatek raket pro z\u00e1padn\u00ed syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany, zejm\u00e9na americk\u00fdch raket Patriot (jich\u017e nedostatek \u010del\u00ed i samotn\u00e9 USA v d\u016fsledku sv\u00e9 agrese proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu), \u010din\u00ed Kyjev st\u00e1le zraniteln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm v\u016f\u010di rusk\u00fdm \u00fader\u016fm. Obt\u00ed\u017enost prolomen\u00ed hust\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany kolem Kyjeva byla jedn\u00edm z d\u016fvod\u016f, pro\u010d k takov\u00fdm \u00fatok\u016fm dosud nedoch\u00e1zelo \u010dast\u011bji.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e1 odvetn\u00e1 eskalace kone\u010dn\u011b vys\u00edl\u00e1 jasn\u00fd sign\u00e1l evropsk\u00fdm elit\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 proti Rusku vedly v\u00e1lku prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm Ukrajiny. Reakce Evropy jak na ukrajinsk\u00fd \u00fader na Starob\u011blsk, tak na n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 nasazen\u00ed rakety Ore\u0161nik proti c\u00edl\u016fm v Kyjev\u011b jasn\u011b nazna\u010duje, \u017ee je zapojena do v\u00e1lky proti Rusku. Evropa slou\u017e\u00ed jako t\u00fdlov\u00e1 podp\u016frn\u00e1 z\u00e1kladna a do jist\u00e9 m\u00edry i vojensk\u00e9 velitelsk\u00e9 centrum kyjevsk\u00e9ho re\u017eimu. Evropa je tak\u00e9 zodpov\u011bdn\u00e1 za n\u00e1r\u016fst d\u00e1lkov\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f hluboko v Rusku; je hlavn\u00edm motorem sou\u010dasn\u00e9 eskalace a d\u016fvodem, pro\u010d i po dev\u00edti m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 \u00fasil\u00ed o pln\u011bn\u00ed dohod z Anchorage pozastaveno.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko se rozhodlo zah\u00e1jit systematick\u00e9 \u00fadery proti Kyjevu. Dal\u0161\u00edm krokem na \u017eeb\u0159\u00ed\u010dku eskalace budou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 \u00fadery proti c\u00edl\u016fm v zem\u00edch EU a NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jelena\u00a0<\/span>\u010cernenko<\/span>\u00a0, zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed zpravodajka den\u00edku Kommersant\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Po ukrajinsk\u00e9m \u00fatoku na vysokou \u0161kolu ve Starob\u011blsku a zavra\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed nevinn\u00fdch d\u011bt\u00ed ru\u0161t\u00ed strategi\u010dt\u00ed analytici…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":107512,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,7355,221,22,2703],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107511"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=107511"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107511\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/107512"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=107511"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=107511"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=107511"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}