{"id":107304,"date":"2026-05-25T00:14:16","date_gmt":"2026-05-24T22:14:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=107304"},"modified":"2026-05-24T15:55:20","modified_gmt":"2026-05-24T13:55:20","slug":"larry-c-johnson-je-mir-na-dosah-ruky-nedelejte-si-prilis-velke-nadeje","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/25\/larry-c-johnson-je-mir-na-dosah-ruky-nedelejte-si-prilis-velke-nadeje\/","title":{"rendered":"Larry C. Johnson: Je m\u00edr na dosah ruky? Ned\u011blejte si p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 velk\u00e9 nad\u011bje"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Od doby, kdy se Neville Chamberlain 30. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 1938 vr\u00e1til z jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s Hitlerem v Mnichov\u011b, jsme nebyli sv\u011bdky takov\u00e9 pod\u00edvan\u00e9 na podvod a fale\u0161nou nad\u011bji.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Tento v\u00edkend Trump dychtiv\u011b ozn\u00e1mil prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm sv\u00e9 platformy Truth Social:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eDohoda mezi Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty americk\u00fdmi, \u00cdr\u00e1nskou isl\u00e1mskou republikou a r\u016fzn\u00fdmi dal\u0161\u00edmi uveden\u00fdmi zem\u011bmi byla z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti vyjedn\u00e1na a podl\u00e9h\u00e1 kone\u010dn\u00e9mu dokon\u010den\u00ed\u2026 Kone\u010dn\u00e9 aspekty a podrobnosti dohody jsou v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b projedn\u00e1v\u00e1ny a budou brzy ozn\u00e1meny. Krom\u011b mnoha dal\u0161\u00edch prvk\u016f dohody bude otev\u0159en Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nci v\u0161ak maj\u00ed jin\u00fd pohled na v\u011bc: Trumpovo tvrzen\u00ed o n\u00e1vratu Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu do p\u016fvodn\u00edho stavu je nepravdiv\u00e9. Podle agentury Fars v\u00fdzkum report\u00e9ra ukazuje, \u017ee i toto tvrzen\u00ed m\u00e1 daleko k realit\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle toho z\u016fstane Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv pod \u00edr\u00e1nskou kontrolou, pokud by bylo dosa\u017eeno p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 dohody. A\u010dkoli \u00cdr\u00e1n souhlasil se zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm po\u010dtu proplouvaj\u00edc\u00edch lod\u00ed na p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dnou \u00farove\u0148, v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b to neznamen\u00e1 \u201evoln\u00fd pr\u016fjezd\u201c jako p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou. Spr\u00e1va pr\u016flivu, ur\u010den\u00ed trasy, \u010das\u016f a zp\u016fsobu plavby, jako\u017e i vyd\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed povolen\u00ed by z\u016fstaly v\u00fdhradn\u011b pod kontrolou a uv\u00e1\u017een\u00edm \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky. Trumpova verze je proto ne\u00fapln\u00e1 a odporuje realit\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za zm\u00ednku tak\u00e9 stoj\u00ed, \u017ee Trump d\u0159\u00edve ozna\u010dil jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m jadern\u00e9m programu za jednu z \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edch a neodd\u011bliteln\u00fdch podm\u00ednek jak\u00e9koli dohody. \u00cdr\u00e1n se v\u0161ak k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm takov\u00fdm z\u00e1vazk\u016fm nep\u0159ihl\u00e1sil a jadern\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka se v t\u00e9to f\u00e1zi ani neprojedn\u00e1vala.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie \u00fadajn\u011b nadnesla my\u0161lenku paktu o ne\u00fato\u010den\u00ed s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Stalo se tak pot\u00e9, co Rij\u00e1d byl sv\u011bdkem toho, jak Teher\u00e1n prorazil n\u011bkolik vrstev americk\u00e9 vzdu\u0161n\u00e9 a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed obrany v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu alarmuj\u00edc\u00edmi rychl\u00fdmi \u00fatoky b\u011bhem prvn\u00edch p\u011bti t\u00fddn\u016f ramad\u00e1nsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky \u2013 v\u00e1lky, kter\u00e1 za\u010dala 28. \u00fanora.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle Financial Times Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie \u2013 kter\u00e1 se kdysi spol\u00e9hala na \u201eneposkvrn\u011bn\u00e9\u201c bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky Washingtonu, je\u017e se ve skute\u010dnosti uk\u00e1zaly jako fata morg\u00e1na \u2013 nyn\u00ed ti\u0161e zva\u017euje region\u00e1ln\u00ed dohodu po vzoru star\u00fdch Helsinsk\u00fdch dohod: hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1 spolupr\u00e1ce, bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky a stabilita bez imp\u00e9ria diktuj\u00edc\u00edho pravidla.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud je to pravda, znamenalo by to, \u017ee Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie ji\u017e nepova\u017euje USA za sv\u00e9ho prim\u00e1rn\u00edho ochr\u00e1nce a m\u00edsto toho akceptuje novou bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architekturu, kter\u00e1 uzn\u00e1v\u00e1 \u00cdr\u00e1n jako nov\u00e9ho \u0161erifa v nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9m regionu. Kdy\u017e se v\u00e1\u0161 ochr\u00e1nce zd\u00e1 slab\u00fd a zraniteln\u00fd, za\u010dnete jednat se zem\u00ed, kter\u00e1 pr\u00e1v\u011b dok\u00e1zala, \u017ee dok\u00e1\u017ee splnit sv\u00e9 povinnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle vysoce postaven\u00e9ho zdroje z p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 diplomatick\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed slu\u017eby:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eBl\u00ed\u017e\u00edme se ke kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9mu okam\u017eiku. R\u00e1mec je v podstat\u011b nastaven. Zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed ot\u00e1zkou je, zda diplomacie dok\u00e1\u017ee p\u0159eklenout posledn\u00ed propast, ne\u017e region sklouzne do mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed konfrontace.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee P\u00e1kist\u00e1n hraje v tomto dramatu \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed roli. Poln\u00ed mar\u0161\u00e1l \u00c1sim Munir nyn\u00ed dokon\u010dil druhou misi v Teher\u00e1nu, kter\u00e1 zahrnovala p\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s vysoce postaven\u00fdmi \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi politick\u00fdmi, vojensk\u00fdmi a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fdmi mocensk\u00fdmi strukturami \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b osob z nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edho okruhu nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho v\u016fdce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ministr vnitra Mohsin Naqvi se z\u00e1rove\u0148 i nad\u00e1le aktivn\u011b pod\u00edl\u00ed na umo\u017e\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed ka\u017edodenn\u00edch mechanism\u016f nep\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 komunikace mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem a na koordinaci tohoto r\u00e1mce.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00e1kist\u00e1n se v sou\u010dasnosti jev\u00ed jako jedin\u00e1 zem\u011b, kter\u00e1 sou\u010dasn\u011b udr\u017euje funk\u010dn\u00ed kan\u00e1ly d\u016fv\u011bry s Teher\u00e1nem, Pekingem, Dauh\u00e1, Rij\u00e1dem, Ab\u00fa Zab\u00edm a s medi\u00e1tory bl\u00edzk\u00fdmi Washingtonu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stejn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd je rychle rostouc\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed odpor v\u016f\u010di obnoven\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 eskalaci USA. Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, Katar, Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty a P\u00e1kist\u00e1n \u00fadajn\u011b p\u0159\u00edmo varovaly Washington p\u0159ed nov\u00fdmi vojensk\u00fdmi akcemi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jejich obavy nejsou zalo\u017eeny na ideologick\u00fdch sympati\u00edch k Teher\u00e1nu, ale na nebezpe\u010d\u00ed nekontrolovateln\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed destabilizace, kter\u00e1 by mohla ovlivnit infrastrukturu Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, energetick\u00e9 syst\u00e9my, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed trasy, odsolovac\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trhy s ropou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 \u00cdr\u00e1n ji\u017e neoperuje z oslaben\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 pozice, v jak\u00e9 se nach\u00e1zel na za\u010d\u00e1tku leto\u0161n\u00edho roku. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 raketov\u00e1 infrastruktura byla z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti obnovena. N\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed schopnosti byly p\u0159erozd\u011bleny a pos\u00edleny. Velitelsk\u00e9 struktury pod Revolu\u010dn\u00edmi gardami se stabilizovaly.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e9 odhady nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n st\u00e1le disponuje p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 70 % sv\u00fdch raketov\u00fdch kapacit a obnovil opera\u010dn\u00ed funk\u010dnost zhruba 30 z 33 strategick\u00fdch raketov\u00fdch pozic pobl\u00ed\u017e Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna a Rusko tak\u00e9 ti\u0161e pos\u00edlily odolnost \u00cdr\u00e1nu, ani\u017e by otev\u0159en\u011b zasahovaly do konfliktu. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 podpora \u00fadajn\u011b zahrnuje technologie dvoj\u00edho u\u017eit\u00ed, podporu satelit\u016f, komponenty dron\u016f a raket, integraci BeiDou a nep\u0159\u00edmou obrannou pomoc prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm tajn\u00fdch kan\u00e1l\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Rusko poskytuje zpravodajsk\u00e9 informace a z\u00e1rove\u0148 strategicky t\u011b\u017e\u00ed z energetick\u00e9ho \u0161oku zp\u016fsoben\u00e9ho prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed nestabilitou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nechte si prach such\u00fd a po\u010dkejte, co p\u0159inese pond\u011bl\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Od doby, kdy se Neville Chamberlain 30. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 1938 vr\u00e1til z jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s Hitlerem v…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":107305,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[38,565,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107304"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=107304"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107304\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/107305"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=107304"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=107304"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=107304"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}