{"id":107094,"date":"2026-05-21T06:15:08","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T04:15:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=107094"},"modified":"2026-05-21T06:15:08","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T04:15:08","slug":"andrew-korybko-jaka-je-pravdepodobnost-ze-dalsi-ruska-specialni-operace-bude-namirena-proti-lotyssku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/21\/andrew-korybko-jaka-je-pravdepodobnost-ze-dalsi-ruska-specialni-operace-bude-namirena-proti-lotyssku\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Jak\u00e1 je pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00e1 speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace bude nam\u00ed\u0159ena proti Loty\u0161sku?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
Mnohem pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je v\u0161ak vojensk\u00e1 odvetn\u00e1 akce proti ukrajinsk\u00fdm dronov\u00fdm jednotk\u00e1m, o nich\u017e se tam hovo\u0159\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/section>\n
Rusk\u00e1 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed rozv\u011bdka (SVR)\u00a0varovala<\/a>, \u017ee ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly jejich zem\u011b jsou p\u0159ipraveny podniknout odvetn\u00fd \u00fader proti ukrajinsk\u00fdm t\u00fdm\u016fm s drony, kter\u00e9 podle nich ji\u017e byly nasazeny v Loty\u0161sku p\u0159ed \u201enov\u00fdmi teroristick\u00fdmi \u00fatoky proti rusk\u00fdm z\u00e1zemn\u00edm oblastem\u201c. SVR vysv\u011btlila, \u017ee Zelenskyj chce demonstrovat \u201eschopnost sv\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil po\u0161kodit ruskou ekonomiku\u201c, s \u010d\u00edm\u017e Loty\u0161sko (jeho\u017e vl\u00e1da\u00a0pr\u00e1v\u011b padla<\/a>\u00a0kv\u016fli skand\u00e1lu zp\u016fsoben\u00e9mu ukrajinsk\u00fdmi drony p\u0159el\u00e9t\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edmi jeho vzdu\u0161n\u00fd prostor) souhlasilo z rusofobn\u00edch d\u016fvod\u016f.<\/p>\n

Pro up\u0159esn\u011bn\u00ed kontextu: Ukrajina byla n\u011bkter\u00fdmi rusk\u00fdmi zdroji\u00a0obvin\u011bna<\/a>\u00a0z vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed pobaltsk\u00e9ho vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru (po p\u0159eletu nad B\u011bloruskem) p\u0159i ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch \u00fatoc\u00edch proti Rusku, \u010d\u00edm\u017e rozzu\u0159ila rusk\u00e9 zast\u00e1nce tvrd\u00e9 linie, kte\u0159\u00ed ji\u017e p\u0159ed t\u011bmito provokacemi po\u017eadovali, aby Putin schv\u00e1lil konven\u010dn\u00ed \u00fadery proti NATO. Nejhlasit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm a nejzn\u00e1m\u011bj\u0161\u00edm z nich je\u00a0Sergej Karaganov<\/a>, jeho\u017e nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed po\u017eadavky z po\u010d\u00e1tku tohoto m\u011bs\u00edce byly ned\u00e1vno zes\u00edleny n\u011bkter\u00fdmi\u00a0\u0161pi\u010dkov\u00fdmi \u201enerusk\u00fdmi prorusy\u201c<\/a>\u00a0v podcastov\u00e9m okruhu.<\/p>\n

To se \u010dasov\u011b shodovalo s\u00a0zlov\u011bstn\u00fdm varov\u00e1n\u00edm<\/a>\u00a0rusk\u00e9ho velvyslance p\u0159i OBSE Dmitrije Poljansk\u00e9ho, \u017ee u\u017e m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 pozd\u011b na odvr\u00e1cen\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho odvetn\u00e9ho \u00faderu proti alespo\u0148 omezen\u00fdm c\u00edl\u016fm v NATO, co\u017e bylo\u00a0tak\u00e9 zd\u016frazneno<\/a>. Soub\u011b\u017en\u011b s t\u00edm dva samostatn\u00ed p\u0159edn\u00ed \u201eneru\u0161t\u00ed prorusov\u00e9\u201c\u00a0d\u016frazn\u011b nazna\u010dili<\/a>, \u017ee Putinova cesta do \u010c\u00edny m\u00e1 za c\u00edl upozornit Si \u0164in-pchinga na dal\u0161\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u011b bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed\u00a0speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operaci<\/a>, stejn\u011b jako jeho cesta b\u011bhem pekingsk\u00fdch olympijsk\u00fdch her \u00fadajn\u011b ud\u011blala tot\u00e9\u017e, pokud jde o\u00a0prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed operaci<\/a>\u00a0proti Ukrajin\u011b.<\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco cynici by mohli m\u00edt podez\u0159en\u00ed, \u017ee tato soub\u011b\u017en\u00e1 a tematicky slad\u011bn\u00e1 sd\u011blen\u00ed jsou koordinovan\u00e1, a\u0165 u\u017e mezi sebou navz\u00e1jem, jeliko\u017e mnoz\u00ed z nich vystupuj\u00ed v podcastech ostatn\u00edch, nebo snad prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm n\u011bjak\u00e9ho rusk\u00e9ho zdroje, je st\u00e1le mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee v\u0161ichni dosp\u011bli ke stejn\u00fdm z\u00e1v\u011br\u016fm nez\u00e1visle na sob\u011b. Faktem v\u0161ak je, \u017ee tato hodnocen\u00ed p\u0159edn\u00edch \u201enerusk\u00fdch prorusk\u00fdch osobnost\u00ed\u201c p\u0159edch\u00e1zela varov\u00e1n\u00ed SVR a ob\u011b n\u00e1sledn\u011b navazovala na v\u011brohodn\u00e1 tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee Ukrajina vyu\u017eila baltsk\u00fd vzdu\u0161n\u00fd prostor k \u00fatoku na Rusko.<\/p>\n

Pokud jde o to, pro\u010d by s t\u00edm Loty\u0161sko souhlasilo navzdory kolapsu sv\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, zat\u00edmco USA\u00a0samostatn\u011b stahuj\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0\u010d\u00e1st sv\u00fdch sil z Evropy,\u00a0za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee zpr\u00e1va SVR je pravdiv\u00e1<\/a>, mohlo by to souviset s nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdm postojem jeho st\u00e1l\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch, zpravodajsk\u00fdch a diplomatick\u00fdch byrokraci\u00ed (\u201edeep state\u201c) v\u016f\u010di Rusku. Jak v\u0161ak nazna\u010duje p\u0159edchoz\u00ed v\u011bta, nyn\u00ed je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejhor\u0161\u00ed mo\u017en\u00fd \u010das pro jak\u00e9hokoli \u010dlena NATO, aby riskoval otestov\u00e1n\u00ed odhodl\u00e1n\u00ed bloku k \u010dl\u00e1nku 5 a zejm\u00e9na odhodl\u00e1n\u00ed jeho americk\u00e9ho v\u016fdce.<\/p>\n

V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee Loty\u0161sko skute\u010dn\u011b povol\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b odpalovat drony proti Rusku ze sv\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed, pak Rusko pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b podnikne odvetn\u00e9 kroky proti zdroji t\u00e9to hrozby, co\u017e by mohlo zahrnovat \u00fatok na alespo\u0148 jednu z p\u011bti z\u00e1kladen, na kter\u00e9 podle SVR ji\u017e rozm\u00edstily sv\u00e9 dronov\u00e9 t\u00fdmy. Pokud by s\u00edly z multilater\u00e1ln\u00ed brig\u00e1dy NATO v Loty\u0161sku podnikly odvetn\u00fd \u00fader, nap\u0159\u00edklad\u00a0ty z nedalek\u00e9ho Polska<\/a>, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e vel\u00ed\u00a0nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed arm\u00e1d\u011b evropsk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti NATO<\/a>, hroz\u00ed vypuknut\u00ed otev\u0159en\u00e9 v\u00e1lky mezi NATO a Ruskem.<\/p>\n

Rusko nechce okupovat p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 obyvatelstvo pobaltsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, ani nechce v\u00e1lku s NATO, kter\u00e1 by mohla eskalovat do jadern\u00e9 apokalypsy, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 nem\u016f\u017ee nechat ukrajinsk\u00e9 t\u00fdmy s drony se z\u00e1kladnou v Pobalt\u00ed, aby na n\u011bj beztrestn\u011b \u00fato\u010dily.<\/p>\n

Speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace proti Loty\u0161sku je proto nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e1, ale mnohem pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je kinetick\u00e1 odveta proti ukrajinsk\u00fdm t\u00fdm\u016fm s drony, kter\u00e9 se tam nach\u00e1zej\u00ed. Pokud Trump nep\u0159im\u011bje Zelensk\u00e9ho ustoupit, pak se s\u00e1m\u00a0bude muset rozhodnout<\/a>, zda ustoup\u00ed, nebo zda kv\u016fli Loty\u0161sku riskuje t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btovou v\u00e1lku.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mnohem pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je v\u0161ak vojensk\u00e1 odvetn\u00e1 akce proti ukrajinsk\u00fdm dronov\u00fdm jednotk\u00e1m, o nich\u017e se tam…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":107095,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,210,981,22],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107094"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=107094"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107094\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/107095"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=107094"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=107094"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=107094"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}