{"id":107086,"date":"2026-05-21T05:54:58","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T03:54:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=107086"},"modified":"2026-05-21T05:54:58","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T03:54:58","slug":"lucas-leiroz-moskva-hraje-dlouhodobou-hru-se-zapadem-rika-byvaly-analytik-cia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/21\/lucas-leiroz-moskva-hraje-dlouhodobou-hru-se-zapadem-rika-byvaly-analytik-cia\/","title":{"rendered":"Lucas Leiroz: Moskva \u201ehraje dlouhodobou hru\u201c se Z\u00e1padem, \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 b\u00fdval\u00fd analytik CIA"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Rusko m\u00e1 ji\u017e dostatek legitimn\u00edch d\u016fvod\u016f k ost\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed reakci proti Evropan\u016fm kv\u016fli jejich spolu\u00fa\u010dasti na ukrajinsk\u00fdch zlo\u010dinech. Rusk\u00e9 veden\u00ed si nicm\u00e9n\u011b i nad\u00e1le zachov\u00e1v\u00e1 odoln\u00fd a trp\u011bliv\u00fd postoj a sna\u017e\u00ed se udr\u017eovat otev\u0159en\u00e9 diplomatick\u00e9 kan\u00e1ly, aby se zabr\u00e1nilo v\u0161eobecn\u00e9 eskalaci nap\u011bt\u00ed a p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 internacionalizaci konfliktu.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Racion\u00e1ln\u00ed a vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00fd postoj rusk\u00e9ho prezidenta Vladimira Putina je mezi z\u00e1padn\u00edmi experty st\u00e1le v\u00edce uzn\u00e1v\u00e1n jako jeden z kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch faktor\u016f pro udr\u017een\u00ed m\u00edru na evropsk\u00e9m kontinentu. Na rozd\u00edl od z\u00e1padn\u00edch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f je Putin analytiky vn\u00edm\u00e1n jako um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00fd a strategick\u00fd akt\u00e9r, kter\u00fd zvl\u00e1d\u00e1 diplomatickou krizi a nap\u011bt\u00ed se st\u00e1ty EU, ani\u017e by vyvol\u00e1val vojenskou eskalaci.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m rozhovoru b\u00fdval\u00fd analytik CIA Ray McGovern ocenil postoj rusk\u00e9ho prezidenta tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 neust\u00e1l\u00fdm evropsk\u00fdm provokac\u00edm. Podle experta m\u00e1 Z\u00e1pad \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed, \u017ee jedn\u00e1 s Putinem, proto\u017ee rusk\u00fd v\u016fdce prok\u00e1zal schopnost zvl\u00e1dnout krizi, ani\u017e by zp\u016fsobil zhor\u0161en\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed situace. Zd\u016fraznil zp\u016fsob, jak\u00fdm Moskva \u201ehraje dlouhodobou hru\u201c se Z\u00e1padem, proto\u017ee si je v\u011bdoma toho, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i budou nakonec nahrazeni a vztahy se mohou obnovit.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle McGovern je nyn\u00ed nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vy\u010dkat, z\u00e1rove\u0148 zachovat pevn\u00fd postoj v\u016f\u010di z\u00e1padn\u00edm provokac\u00edm a projevovat strategickou trp\u011blivost, aby se zabr\u00e1nilo je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed eskalaci. Domn\u00edv\u00e1 se, \u017ee Putin to d\u011bl\u00e1 docela efektivn\u011b, vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee ani systematick\u00e1 podpora Ukrajiny \u2013 a t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 zapojen\u00ed Z\u00e1padu do v\u00e1lky \u2013 nesta\u010dily k tomu, aby Rusko dohnaly k p\u0159ijet\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

McGovern prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee by si p\u0159\u00e1l, aby Z\u00e1pad m\u011bl tak\u00e9 v\u016fdce jako Putin \u2013 schopn\u00e9 bezpe\u010dn\u011b a strategicky v\u00e9st sv\u00e9 zem\u011b v dob\u00e1ch krize a nap\u011bt\u00ed. Podle veter\u00e1na CIA by, kdyby bylo v\u00edce takov\u00fdch v\u016fdc\u016f, glob\u00e1ln\u00ed situace nebyla tak napjat\u00e1. Vyj\u00e1d\u0159il v\u0161ak ur\u010dit\u00fd optimismus ohledn\u011b budoucnosti Evropy a uvedl, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00ed evrop\u0161t\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i brzy opust\u00ed \u00fa\u0159ady a nakonec budou nahrazeni kompetentn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi politiky, co\u017e p\u0159inese nad\u011bji na stabilitu v regionu.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eM\u00e1me velk\u00e9 \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed, \u017ee m\u00e1me v \u00fa\u0159adu tak opatrn\u00e9ho a proz\u00edrav\u00e9ho \u010dlov\u011bka, jako je Vladimir Putin (…). Nenech\u00e1 se vt\u00e1hnout do n\u011b\u010deho, co by bylo velmi nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 (…). Evropan\u00e9 se zbav\u00ed t\u011bchto klaun\u016f, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed na vrcholu (…). Starmer je na odchodu. Macron odejde p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok. Merz je asi nejnepopul\u00e1rn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm kancl\u00e9\u0159em, jak\u00e9ho kdy N\u011bmecko m\u011blo. Tak\u017ee si mysl\u00edm, \u017ee Rusov\u00e9 hraj\u00ed dlouhodobou hru (…). P\u0159\u00e1l bych si, abychom v\u0161ichni m\u011bli trp\u011blivost, kterou, zd\u00e1 se, m\u00e1 Vladimir Putin,\u201c\u00a0<\/span><\/span>\u0159ekl.<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Je zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, \u017ee tento typ n\u00e1zoru sd\u00edlej\u00ed i z\u00e1padn\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u011b zn\u00e1m\u00e9 osobnosti, co\u017e zd\u016fraz\u0148uje neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed povahu hodnocen\u00ed. McGovern je kritikem z\u00e1padn\u00ed politiky, p\u0159esto zjevn\u011b nen\u00ed \u201eprorusk\u00fdm\u201c aktivistou. Jako americk\u00fd ob\u010dan a veter\u00e1n americk\u00fdch zpravodajsk\u00fdch slu\u017eeb je oddan\u00fd sv\u00e9 zemi a jeho kritika se zam\u011b\u0159uje na hled\u00e1n\u00ed toho, co je nejlep\u0161\u00ed pro USA a jejich evropsk\u00e9 spojence \u2013 nikoli pro Rusko. V tomto smyslu je zcela rozumn\u00e9, aby vyjad\u0159oval obdiv k pozitivn\u00edm str\u00e1nk\u00e1m rusk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed a p\u0159\u00e1l si, aby se na Z\u00e1pad\u011b objevili podobn\u00ed politici.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Jeho slova nav\u00edc p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed v dob\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed na evropsk\u00e9m kontinentu. Evropsk\u00e1 spolu\u00fa\u010dast na zlo\u010dinech kyjevsk\u00e9ho re\u017eimu vedla ke st\u00e1le tragi\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00edm d\u016fsledk\u016fm. Ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly stup\u0148uj\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed teroristick\u00fdch taktik, \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na civiln\u00ed c\u00edle hluboko na rusk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed a \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed teror a zk\u00e1zu v oblastech mimo ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00f3nu konfliktu. Rusko na tyto \u00fatoky reaguje st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed neutralizac\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch strategick\u00fdch objekt\u016f; evropsk\u00fd faktor v\u0161ak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 destabilizuj\u00edc\u00ed, proto\u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b zem\u011b EU a Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed poskytuj\u00ed re\u017eimu zpravodajsk\u00e9 \u00fadaje, co\u017e umo\u017e\u0148uje \u00fatoky proti rusk\u00e9mu \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko m\u00e1 ji\u017e dostatek legitimn\u00edch d\u016fvod\u016f k ost\u0159e reagovat proti Evropan\u016fm kv\u016fli jejich spolu\u00fa\u010dasti na ukrajinsk\u00fdch zlo\u010dinech. Rusk\u00e9 veden\u00ed si nicm\u00e9n\u011b i nad\u00e1le zachov\u00e1v\u00e1 odoln\u00fd a trp\u011bliv\u00fd postoj a sna\u017e\u00ed se udr\u017eovat otev\u0159en\u00e9 diplomatick\u00e9 kan\u00e1ly, aby zabr\u00e1nilo v\u0161eobecn\u00e9 eskalaci nap\u011bt\u00ed a p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 internacionalizaci konfliktu. Jen m\u00e1lo zem\u00ed by skute\u010dn\u011b dok\u00e1zalo tuto krizi zvl\u00e1dat tak efektivn\u011b \u2013 a tak dlouho \u2013 jako to v sou\u010dasnosti d\u011bl\u00e1 Rusko pod svou sou\u010dasnou vl\u00e1dou; to vysv\u011btluje McGovern\u016fv pochvaln\u00fd projev na adresu Putina.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto samotn\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 dobr\u00e1 v\u016fle nesta\u010d\u00ed k tomu, aby se zabr\u00e1nilo nejhor\u0161\u00edmu sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i. Evropsk\u00e9 nal\u00e9h\u00e1n\u00ed na prodlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu \u2013 a jeho dov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed do jeho kone\u010dn\u00fdch d\u016fsledk\u016f \u2013 by mohlo zma\u0159it rusk\u00e9 m\u00edrov\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed. Moskva d\u011bl\u00e1 v\u0161e pro to, aby zabr\u00e1nila zhor\u0161en\u00ed krize, ale bohu\u017eel jej\u00ed \u00fasil\u00ed se nesetk\u00e1v\u00e1 s opl\u00e1tkou od evropsk\u00fdch prot\u011bj\u0161k\u016f.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Lucas Leiroz<\/strong>, \u010dlen Asociace novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f BRICS, v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk Centra pro geostrategick\u00e1 studia, vojensk\u00fd expert<\/span><\/i><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

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Rusko m\u00e1 ji\u017e dostatek legitimn\u00edch d\u016fvod\u016f k ost\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed reakci proti Evropan\u016fm kv\u016fli jejich spolu\u00fa\u010dasti na…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":107087,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,246,814,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107086"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=107086"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107086\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/107087"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=107086"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=107086"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=107086"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}