{"id":107031,"date":"2026-05-20T05:47:56","date_gmt":"2026-05-20T03:47:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=107031"},"modified":"2026-05-20T05:51:58","modified_gmt":"2026-05-20T03:51:58","slug":"zdenek-koudelka-usa-a-cina-bude-valka","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/20\/zdenek-koudelka-usa-a-cina-bude-valka\/","title":{"rendered":"Zden\u011bk Koudelka: USA a \u010c\u00edna \u2013 bude v\u00e1lka?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

USA a \u010c\u00edna jsou dv\u011b nejmocn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 velmoci. USA je velmoc, jej\u00ed\u017e vliv upad\u00e1, st\u00e1le je v\u0161ak mocenskou jedni\u010dkou. \u010c\u00edna je nastupuj\u00edc\u00ed mocnost\u00ed vyz\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed dosavadn\u00ed mocenskou jedni\u010dku.<\/p>\n

Th\u00fakydidova past<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Americk\u00fd politolog Graham Tillett Allison publikoval \u010dl\u00e1nek: \u201eTh\u00fakydidova past byla nastra\u017eena v Pacifiku\u201c (Financil Times<\/em>, 2012). V\u00a0n\u011bm pouk\u00e1zal na 16 r\u016fzn\u00fdch historick\u00fdch konflikt\u016f mezi starou etablovanou velmoc\u00ed a novou nastupuj\u00edc\u00ed vyz\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed velmoc\u00ed. Z\u00a0t\u011bchto 16 konflikt\u016f 12 skon\u010dilo v\u00e1lkou a jen 4 soupe\u0159en\u00edm, kde k\u00a0v\u00e1lce nedo\u0161lo. Jm\u00e9no pasti odkazuje na \u0159eck\u00e9ho autora knihy\u00a0D\u011bjiny pelopon\u00e9sk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky<\/em>\u00a0Th\u00fakydid\u00e9se, kter\u00fd popsal t\u00edmto zp\u016fsobem pelopon\u00e9skou v\u00e1lku mezi star\u00fdm vojensk\u00fdm hegemonem v\u00a0\u0158ecku Spartou a vyz\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edmi Ath\u00e9nami. V\u00fdsledkem pelopon\u00e9sk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky bylo sice v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Sparty, ale na v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd rozvrat doplatily oba \u0159eck\u00e9 m\u011bstsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty. Byl to po\u010d\u00e1tek \u00fapadku antick\u00e9ho \u0158ecka.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna je hlavn\u00ed soupe\u0159 USA<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Po konci studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, kdy USA zv\u00edt\u011bzily nad Sov\u011btsk\u00fdm svazem a na 20 let se staly monopoln\u00ed velmoc\u00ed, do\u0161lo k\u00a0razantn\u00edmu oslaben\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 dominance USA i cel\u00e9ho Z\u00e1padu. Hlavn\u00edm vyzyvatelem se stala \u010c\u00edna. Prezident Donald Trump tuto podstatu geopolitick\u00e9ho soupe\u0159en\u00ed pochopil. Proto jej nezaj\u00edm\u00e1 Ukrajina, Evropa, ale Asie a Tichomo\u0159\u00ed. Nov\u00fd mocensk\u00fd st\u0159et je v\u00a0Tichomo\u0159\u00ed. Pro USA jsou d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 Austr\u00e1lie a st\u00e1ty ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed a ji\u017en\u00ed Asii, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed obavu z\u00a0\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 s\u00edly. Proto je sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed mezi USA a Vietnamem. Ob\u011b zem\u011b nezapomn\u011bly na hr\u016fzy v\u00e1lky ve Vietnamu, ale s\u00a0obavami vzhl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed k\u00a0r\u016fstu moci \u010c\u00edny. A i zde plat\u00ed, \u017ee nep\u0159\u00edtel m\u00e9ho nep\u0159\u00edtele, je m\u016fj p\u0159\u00edtel.<\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e dnes tento geopolitick\u00fd sm\u011br symbolizuje prezident USA Donald Trump, je to sm\u011br, kter\u00fd bude v\u00a0americk\u00e9 politice dominovat, i kdyby se k\u00a0moci dostali demokrat\u00e9. I oni v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee probl\u00e9my USA s\u00a0Ruskem \u010di k\u00fdmkoliv jin\u00fdm, jsou druho\u0159ad\u00e9 v\u016f\u010di vztah\u016fm s\u00a0\u010c\u00ednou. Z\u00a0tohoto pohledu byl chybou tlak na roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed NATO na v\u00fdchod a protirusk\u00e1 politika, kter\u00e1 zni\u010dila z\u00e1padn\u00ed vliv v\u00a0Rusku, kde jej nahradila \u010c\u00edna, je\u017e si Rusko d\u00edky ekonomick\u00fdm sankc\u00edm Z\u00e1padu p\u0159ipoutala k\u00a0sob\u011b. To, \u017ee Rusko se stalo spojencem \u010c\u00edny a je schopno ji dod\u00e1vat rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 nerostn\u00e9 bohatstv\u00ed, \u010c\u00ednu pos\u00edlilo.<\/p>\n

NATO je pro americko-\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 soupe\u0159en\u00ed bezcenn\u00e9<\/strong><\/h3>\n

NATO je produktem studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky Z\u00e1padu a sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho bloku. Vzniklo v\u00a0roce 1949. NATO je \u00fazemn\u011b omezeno na obranu \u010dlensk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f na \u00fazem\u00ed Evropy, severn\u00edho Atlantiku (severn\u011b od obratn\u00edku Raka) a St\u0159edozemn\u00edho mo\u0159e, v\u010detn\u011b asijsk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti Turecka. Pro oblast Tichomo\u0159\u00ed, a tedy p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho konfliktu USA a \u010c\u00edny, je nepou\u017eiteln\u00e9. Pro USA ztr\u00e1c\u00ed smysl. Ten snad mohou je\u0161t\u011b americk\u00e9 zbrojovky vid\u011bt v\u00a0tom, \u017ee americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da donut\u00ed zvy\u0161ovat zbrojn\u00ed v\u00fddaje evropsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f za \u00fa\u010delem n\u00e1kupu americk\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. V\u00edc v\u0161ak NATO nyn\u00ed pro USA neznamen\u00e1.<\/p>\n

V\u00e1lka nebo m\u00edr<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Jestli bude v\u00e1lka, nikdo nev\u00ed. Dle Allisona konflikty mezi st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed a nastupuj\u00edc\u00ed velmoc\u00ed k\u00a0v\u00e1lce vedly ve t\u0159ech \u010dtvrtin\u00e1ch p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f. Nen\u00ed to v\u0161ak nutn\u00e9. M\u00edr m\u00e1 \u0161anci. Znamen\u00e1 to v\u0161ak, \u017ee na obou stran\u00e1ch mus\u00ed b\u00fdt politici, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou schopni ud\u011blat smlouvu o form\u011b sou\u017eit\u00ed. Smlouvu, kter\u00e1 nebude ide\u00e1ln\u00ed, ale funk\u010dn\u00ed a to sta\u010d\u00ed. Star\u00e1 mocnost mus\u00ed pochopit, \u017ee se doba zm\u011bnila a u\u017e nebude v\u0161emocn\u00e1 a nov\u00e9 mocnosti mus\u00ed n\u011bkde ustoupit. Nov\u00e1 mocnost pak m\u00e1 respektovat, \u017ee jsou ur\u010dit\u00e9 hranice, za kter\u00e9 nem\u016f\u017ee star\u00e1 mocnost ustoupit, by\u0165 by to vedlo k\u00a0v\u00e1lce.<\/p>\n

To pro USA v\u017edy byla z\u00e1sada Amerika Ameri\u010dan\u016fm. Nikdo nem\u016f\u017ee ohrozit monopoln\u00ed mocenskou dominanci USA na cel\u00e9m americk\u00e9m kontinentu. Stejn\u011b tak nem\u016f\u017ee nikdo bl\u00edzko \u010c\u00edny vytv\u00e1\u0159et proti\u010d\u00ednskou z\u00e1kladnu. Proto je \u010c\u00edna nesmlouvav\u00e1 v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Tchaj-wanu.<\/p>\n

A co Evropa? Evropa nic. Evropa ve form\u011b Evropsk\u00e9 unie, kter\u00e1 ut\u00e1p\u00ed obrovsk\u00e9 prost\u0159edky na hloupou politiku Zelen\u00e9ho \u00fad\u011blu a boje s\u00a0oxidem uhli\u010dit\u00fdm, likviduje sv\u016fj pr\u016fmysl. Proto nen\u00ed konkurenc\u00ed ani pro USA, ani pro \u010c\u00ednu. Evropsk\u00e1 unie, jej\u00ed\u017e hlavn\u00ed geopolitick\u00e9 paradigma zamrzlo v\u00a0\u010dase studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, nech\u00e1pe, \u017ee sv\u011bt je u\u017e jinde. Je a bude mimo.<\/p>\n

Zden\u011bk Koudelka<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USA a \u010c\u00edna jsou dv\u011b nejmocn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 velmoci. USA je velmoc, jej\u00ed\u017e vliv upad\u00e1, st\u00e1le…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":34184,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[30,1503,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107031"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=107031"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107031\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34184"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=107031"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=107031"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=107031"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}