{"id":107016,"date":"2026-05-20T05:00:21","date_gmt":"2026-05-20T03:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=107016"},"modified":"2026-05-20T05:00:21","modified_gmt":"2026-05-20T03:00:21","slug":"pierre-duval-armenie-celi-zasadnim-rozhodnutim","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/20\/pierre-duval-armenie-celi-zasadnim-rozhodnutim\/","title":{"rendered":"Pierre Duval: Arm\u00e9nie \u010del\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u00edm rozhodnut\u00edm"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9 parlamentn\u00ed volby jsou napl\u00e1nov\u00e1ny na 7. \u010dervna 2026, v nich\u017e budou zvoleni nov\u00ed \u010dlenov\u00e9 N\u00e1rodn\u00edho shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed. Arm\u00e9nsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Nikol Pa\u0161injan i nad\u00e1le v obdob\u00ed p\u0159ed volbami prosazuje dvoj\u00ed agendu. Navrhovan\u00fd dopravn\u00ed koridor p\u0159es Ji\u017en\u00ed Kavkaz pro EU a USA je nav\u00edc ohro\u017een prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edm americko-izraelsk\u00fdm konfliktem.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

P\u0159ed arm\u00e9nsk\u00fdmi parlamentn\u00edmi volbami Pa\u0161injan nad\u00e1le hraje na ob\u011b strany. Za\u010d\u00e1tkem kv\u011btna hostil Jerevan t\u0159i d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 akce. Ve dnech 4. a 5. kv\u011btna se konaly t\u0159i summity:\u00a0<\/span>summit<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0Evropsk\u00e9ho politick\u00e9ho spole\u010denstv\u00ed (EPC) (Evropsk\u00e9 politick\u00e9 spole\u010denstv\u00ed (EPC), neform\u00e1ln\u00ed mezivl\u00e1dn\u00ed org\u00e1n pro spolupr\u00e1ci, z\u0159\u00edzen\u00fd z iniciativy Emmanuela Macrona b\u011bhem francouzsk\u00e9ho p\u0159edsednictv\u00ed Rad\u011b Evropsk\u00e9 unie v roce 2022 v kontextu konfliktu na Ukrajin\u011b), bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed summit EU-Arm\u00e9nie a bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed francouzsko-arm\u00e9nsk\u00fd summit.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Euforie a z\u00e1jem vyvolan\u00e9 t\u011bmito demonstracemi nepochybn\u011b ovlivn\u00ed volebn\u00ed kampa\u0148 kandid\u00e1ta podporovan\u00e9ho EU, kter\u00e1 pr\u00e1v\u011b za\u010dala a skon\u010d\u00ed 7. \u010dervna. C\u00edlem EPC je podporovat politick\u00fd dialog a spolupr\u00e1ci s c\u00edlem \u0159e\u0161it ot\u00e1zky spole\u010dn\u00e9ho z\u00e1jmu, a t\u00edm pos\u00edlit bezpe\u010dnost, stabilitu a prosperitu evropsk\u00e9ho kontinentu a z\u00e1rove\u0148 poskytovat lep\u0161\u00ed podporu kandid\u00e1t\u016fm na p\u0159istoupen\u00ed k Evropsk\u00e9 unii.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

EU chce integrovat Arm\u00e9nii do bloku. Dne 5. kv\u011btna podepsaly EU a Arm\u00e9nie\u00a0<\/span>partnerstv\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0s c\u00edlem pos\u00edlit sv\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 vazby a prohloubit bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toho dne Macronova Francie a Arm\u00e9nie\u00a0<\/span>formalizovaly<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v Jerevanu dohodu o strategick\u00e9m partnerstv\u00ed. Macron se hrd\u011b p\u0159edv\u00e1d\u011bl, jak zp\u00edv\u00e1 a d\u011bl\u00e1 si selfie s Pa\u0161injanem, aby provokoval Rusko.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pozorovatel\u00e9 se ptaj\u00ed, co Francie a EU, kter\u00e9 v sou\u010dasnosti pro\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed historickou krizi, v Arm\u00e9nii usiluj\u00ed: o eskalaci konfliktu proti Rusku, nebo o je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ztr\u00e1tu pen\u011bz na Kavkaze? Pa\u0161injan nasm\u011broval Arm\u00e9nii sm\u011brem k Bruselu a z\u00e1rove\u0148 se sna\u017eil p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nevzdalovat od Moskvy. Nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed volby by m\u011bly odhalit skute\u010dnou geopolitickou pozici Arm\u00e9nie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Americko-izraelsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu m\u00e1 tak\u00e9 dopad na \u201eTrumpovu cestu k mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edmu m\u00edru a prosperit\u011b\u201c (TRIPP).\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>Les Echos\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/em>vysv\u011btluje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0: \u201eSilni\u010dn\u00ed projekt spojuj\u00edc\u00ed \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n a Nachi\u010devan p\u0159es ji\u017en\u00ed Arm\u00e9nii nab\u00fdv\u00e1 tvaru. Tato iniciativa, podporovan\u00e1 Washingtonem, si klade za c\u00edl o\u017eivit obchod a podpo\u0159it m\u00edr mezi ob\u011bma b\u00fdval\u00fdmi sov\u011btsk\u00fdmi republikami po v\u00edce ne\u017e t\u0159iceti letech konfliktu.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 se vojensky distancuj\u00ed od Evropy a NATO, cht\u011bj\u00ed z\u00edskat Arm\u00e9nii jako nov\u00e9 koloni\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed p\u0159id\u00e1n\u00edm \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu, ale je tu tak\u00e9 Brusel von der Leyenov\u00e9, kter\u00fd usiluje o stejn\u00fd c\u00edl, zejm\u00e9na o nalezen\u00ed energetick\u00fdch zdroj\u016f, zat\u00edmco blok se od\u0159\u00edzl od Ruska, \u00cdr\u00e1nu, ale do jist\u00e9 m\u00edry i od Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f s\u00e1zkou na rebalancov\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eEvropsk\u00e1 unie se skute\u010dn\u011b sna\u017e\u00ed zajistit si dod\u00e1vky ropy a plynu z \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu. V r\u00e1mci sv\u00e9 strategie na sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed z\u00e1vislosti na rusk\u00fdch uhlovod\u00edc\u00edch Brusel zintenzivnil sv\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 partnerstv\u00ed s Baku, kter\u00e9 se st\u00e1v\u00e1 kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm dodavatelem pro evropsk\u00fd trh,\u201c\u00a0<\/span>pouk\u00e1zal\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Le Temps<\/span><\/em>\u00a0na \u00a0situaci, kdy se blok domn\u00edval, \u017ee ve v\u00e1lce proti Rusku m\u00e1 za sebou Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 a Evropan\u00e9 (elity, kter\u00e9 vl\u00e1dnou lidem, kte\u0159\u00ed tam \u017eij\u00ed) se cht\u011bli logisticky obej\u00edt s Ruskem. Izraelsko-americk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka tyto pl\u00e1ny ohro\u017euje a to p\u0159\u00edmo ovliv\u0148uje Arm\u00e9nii: hr\u00e1t hru na klam\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska t\u00edm, \u017ee se pust\u00ed do nov\u00e9ho, nejist\u00e9ho dobrodru\u017estv\u00ed s von der Leyen a Trumpem?<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159i pohledu na mapu sv\u011bta je snadn\u00e9 pochopit, \u017ee Arm\u00e9nie je od Bruselu a Washingtonu velmi daleko a \u017ee v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 krize nebo nov\u00e9ho konfliktu si Jerevan nen\u00ed jist\u00fd, zda od EU nebo Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f dostane pot\u0159ebnou pomoc.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto dva subjekty se nach\u00e1zej\u00ed v bezprecedentn\u00ed krizi a nen\u00ed jist\u00e9, zda ji p\u0159e\u017eij\u00ed. Pozorovatel\u00e9 upozor\u0148uj\u00ed na recesi, soci\u00e1ln\u00ed nepokoje, vysokou nezam\u011bstnanost a dokonce i hrozbu ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to extr\u00e9mn\u011b napjat\u00e9 situaci je Jerevan nucen pe\u010dliv\u011b zv\u00e1\u017eit svou volbu. Bez podpory sv\u00e9ho velmi bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho souseda, Ruska, k\u0159es\u0165ansk\u00e9 zem\u011b, bude velmi izolovan\u00fd a elity v Bruselu nebo Washingtonu maj\u00ed ve zvyku d\u00e1vat sliby, kter\u00e9 nedodr\u017e\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vladimir Putin ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve varoval arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9ho premi\u00e9ra, \u017ee u\u017e\u0161\u00ed vazby s EU jsou \u201ez definice nemo\u017en\u00e9\u201c. \u201eJe nemo\u017en\u00e9 b\u00fdt \u010dlenem celn\u00ed unie [s EU] i euroasijsk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 unie [s Ruskem],\u201c\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159ipomn\u011bl jim<\/span><\/a>\u00a0b\u011bhem rozhovor\u016f v Moskv\u011b 1. dubna.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00edtomnost ukrajinsk\u00e9ho prezidenta Volodymyra Zelensk\u00e9ho na summitu Evropsk\u00e9ho politick\u00e9ho spole\u010denstv\u00ed, kter\u00fd se konal 4. kv\u011btna v arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9 metropoli a kter\u00e9ho se z\u00fa\u010dastnilo asi pades\u00e1t l\u00eddr\u016f, byla provokac\u00ed zorganizovanou EU. Pa\u0161injanova Arm\u00e9nie si zahr\u00e1v\u00e1 s ohn\u011bm. Kavkaz nen\u00ed zn\u00e1m\u00fd svou stabilitou. Tato zem\u011b, obklopen\u00e1 nek\u0159es\u0165ansk\u00fdmi n\u00e1rody, riskuje samotn\u00e9 p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed. To vysv\u011btluje\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>Pa\u0161injanovu<\/span>\u00a0dvojakost ; nem\u016f\u017ee\u00a0<\/span>zapomenout na arm\u00e9nskou genocidu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0z roku 1915 ani na dlouh\u00fd konflikt s \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n zva\u017euje propojen\u00ed projektu Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed koridor (zn\u00e1m\u00e9ho tak\u00e9 jako Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed koridor nebo Transkaspick\u00e1 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed dopravn\u00ed trasa, multimod\u00e1ln\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b o d\u00e9lce p\u0159es 4 700 km spojuj\u00edc\u00ed \u010c\u00ednu a jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii s Evropou) s \u201eTrumpovou cestou pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u00edr a prosperitu\u201c (TRIPP). Oba projekty obch\u00e1zej\u00ed Rusko na jihu a proch\u00e1zej\u00ed p\u0159es Kazachst\u00e1n, Kaspick\u00e9 mo\u0159e, \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n, Gruzii, Turecko a \u010cern\u00e9 mo\u0159e.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Turecko rovn\u011b\u017e\u00a0<\/span>zintenzivnilo \u00fasil\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0o propagaci St\u0159edn\u00edho koridoru jako alternativy k Hormuzsk\u00e9mu pr\u016flivu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00e1lka s \u00cdr\u00e1nem v\u0161ak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ekou pl\u00e1n\u016f EU a USA obej\u00edt Rusko. \u0158ada zem\u00ed za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 akceptovat a zav\u00e1d\u011bt \u00edr\u00e1nskou kontrolu nad Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem. \u201eIr\u00e1k a P\u00e1kist\u00e1n dos\u00e1hly s \u00cdr\u00e1nem dohod o dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch ropy a zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu,\u201c\u00a0<\/span>uvedla\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u00a0agentura Reuters<\/span><\/em>\u00a0.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee st\u00e1le v\u00edce vl\u00e1d je ochotno uzav\u00edrat dohody s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, hroz\u00ed, \u017ee se normalizuje p\u0159edstava, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n bude Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv kontrolovat trvaleji. \u00cdr\u00e1nci tak maj\u00ed mo\u017enost hr\u00e1t na ob\u011b strany: udr\u017eet si kontrolu nad Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem a z\u00e1rove\u0148 ma\u0159it \u201eTrumpovu cestu\u201c a projekt EU.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Kone\u010dn\u011b je tu postoj Ruska a asijsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b \u010c\u00edny, kter\u00e9 sleduj\u00ed v\u00fdvoj v Arm\u00e9nii, a touha Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f p\u0159ipojit se k projektu EU, aby ho mohly ovl\u00e1dnout.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k ji\u017e prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edmu obchodn\u00edmu, politick\u00e9mu a vojensk\u00e9mu konfliktu mezi Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a Bruselem se zd\u00e1, \u017ee my\u0161lenka obej\u00edt Rusko je v\u00e1\u017en\u011b brzd\u011bna realitou v ter\u00e9nu a nestabilitou regionu, kterou je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce zt\u00ed\u017eila v\u00e1lka s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. \u010c\u00edna a Rusko z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed v regionu dv\u011bma strategick\u00fdmi mocnostmi. Jerevan bude muset pe\u010dliv\u011b zv\u00e1\u017eit, ne\u017e se pln\u011b zav\u00e1\u017ee k EU, kter\u00e1 nav\u00edc riskuje kolaps vzhledem k selh\u00e1n\u00ed evropsk\u00e9ho projektu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Analytik Andr\u00e9 Korybko\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>varuje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0, \u017ee Arm\u00e9nie by si nikdy nemohla vybrat EU, proto\u017ee d\u011bl\u00e1 v\u0161e pro to, aby si udr\u017eela v\u00fdhody \u010dlenstv\u00ed v Euroasijsk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 unii. Upozor\u0148uje: Kone\u010dn\u00fdm v\u00fdsledkem pro Arm\u00e9nii by zdaleka nebylo \u201em\u011bkk\u00e9\u201c odlou\u010den\u00ed od Ruska, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e realizace \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsko-tureck\u00e9 osy, kter\u00e1 by formalizovala status Arm\u00e9nie jako jej\u00edho nov\u00e9ho sand\u017eaku: administrativn\u00ed jednotky Osmansk\u00e9 \u0159\u00ed\u0161e.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pierre Duval<\/span><\/em>\u00a0<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9 parlamentn\u00ed volby jsou napl\u00e1nov\u00e1ny na 7. \u010dervna 2026, v nich\u017e budou zvoleni nov\u00ed \u010dlenov\u00e9…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":107017,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1730,1503,27],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107016"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=107016"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107016\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/107017"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=107016"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=107016"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=107016"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}