{"id":106849,"date":"2026-05-18T05:54:59","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T03:54:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=106849"},"modified":"2026-05-18T05:54:59","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T03:54:59","slug":"belorusky-ministr-obrany-dostal-od-lukasenka-rozkaz-k-mobilizaci-vybranych-utvaru-armady","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/18\/belorusky-ministr-obrany-dostal-od-lukasenka-rozkaz-k-mobilizaci-vybranych-utvaru-armady\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u011blorusk\u00fd ministr obrany dostal od Luka\u0161enka rozkaz k mobilizaci vybran\u00fdch \u00fatvar\u016f arm\u00e1dy!"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<h4>B\u011blorusk\u00fd ministr obrany dostal od Luka\u0161enka rozkaz k mobilizaci vybran\u00fdch \u00fatvar\u016f arm\u00e1dy! Podle Zelensk\u00e9ho pr\u00fd Moskva chyst\u00e1 otev\u0159en\u00ed \u201cB\u011blorusk\u00e9ho frontu\u201d a Dmytro Kuleba prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee o front\u011b je ji\u017e rozhodnuto a \u010dek\u00e1 se jen na to, kdy a kde to Moskva a Minsk spust\u00ed! P\u0159ehl\u00eddka na Rud\u00e9m n\u00e1m\u011bst\u00ed bez tank\u016f a t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 techniky m\u016f\u017ee znamenat, \u017ee Moskv\u011b u\u017e opot\u0159ebov\u00e1vac\u00ed v\u00e1lka nevyhovuje a pot\u0159ebuje rychl\u00fd p\u00e1d Kyjeva!<\/h4>\n<p>Evropsk\u00fd prostor znovu sleduje sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, kter\u00fd p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 prvn\u00ed t\u00fddny v\u00e1lky z \u00fanora 2022. B\u011blorusk\u00fd prezident\u00a0<strong>Alexander Luka\u0161enko si podle zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00fdch informac\u00ed pozval do sv\u00e9 kancel\u00e1\u0159e ministra obrany Viktora Chrenina a b\u011bhem jedn\u00e1n\u00ed ozn\u00e1mil aktivaci \u010d\u00e1sti b\u011blorusk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch struktur.\u00a0<\/strong>Sou\u010dasn\u011b prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee v\u00e1lku si nikdo nep\u0159eje, ale v\u0161ichni se na ni p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed. Kr\u00e1tce nato b\u00fdval\u00fd ukrajinsk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Dmytro Kuleba uvedl, \u017ee Kreml chce B\u011blorusko zat\u00e1hnout p\u0159\u00edmo do v\u00e1lky a Minsk podle n\u011bj nem\u00e1 prostor odporovat.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"rumble_v77tims\">\n<div id=\"vid_v77tims\" class=\"rumble_v77tims-Rumble-cls\" tabindex=\"-1\">\n<div><div class='videoWrapper'>\r\n\t            <iframe src='https:\/\/rumble.com\/embed\/pj.v77tims\/' frameborder='0' allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\r\n\t        <\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Volodymyr Zelensk\u00fd nav\u00edc informoval, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e1 rozv\u011bdka zaznamenala mo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpravy na otev\u0159en\u00ed severn\u00edho\u00a0<em>B\u011blorusk\u00e9ho frontu<\/em>\u00a0na \u010cernihiv, Kyjev, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b i proti zem\u00edm NATO. V z\u00e1padn\u00edch m\u00e9di\u00edch se tato situace \u010dasto vykl\u00e1d\u00e1 jako dal\u0161\u00ed krok rusk\u00e9 eskalace. Jen\u017ee z hlediska vojensk\u00e9 logiky m\u016f\u017ee j\u00edt o pragmati\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed kalkulaci.<\/p>\n<p>Moskva po letech v\u00e1lky \u010del\u00ed vysok\u00e9mu opot\u0159eben\u00ed sil na Donbasu, rostouc\u00edm n\u00e1klad\u016fm dlouhodob\u00e9ho konfliktu a pot\u0159eb\u011b rozpt\u00fdlit ukrajinsk\u00e9 jednotky na co nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm prostoru. Aktivace b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho sm\u011bru proto nemus\u00ed znamenat bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed pl\u00e1n na velk\u00fd \u00fatok na Kyjev, ale p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm vytvo\u0159en\u00ed trval\u00e9 hrozby, kter\u00e1 donut\u00ed Ukrajinu dr\u017eet zna\u010dn\u00e9 rezervy mimo hlavn\u00ed boji\u0161t\u011b.<\/p>\n<h3>Strategick\u00fd probl\u00e9m Moskvy: v\u00e1lka se zm\u011bnila ve vy\u010derp\u00e1vac\u00ed konflikt<\/h3>\n<p>Rusk\u00e9 veden\u00ed vstupovalo do konfliktu s p\u0159edstavou relativn\u011b kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 operace. Dnes je v\u0161ak situace zcela odli\u0161n\u00e1. Fronta se prom\u011bnila v dlouhodobou pozi\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lku, ve kter\u00e9 rozhoduje pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 kapacita, po\u010det dostupn\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f, logistika a schopnost nahrazovat ztr\u00e1ty.<\/p>\n<p>P\u0159esto\u017ee rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da v posledn\u00edch letech postupn\u011b z\u00edsk\u00e1vala iniciativu v n\u011bkolika \u00fasec\u00edch Donbasu, tempo postupu z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 pomal\u00e9 a n\u00e1kladn\u00e9. Ka\u017ed\u00fd kilometr znamen\u00e1 spot\u0159ebu munice, techniky, dron\u016f, \u017eenijn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f i person\u00e1lu. Z tohoto pohledu se pro Moskvu st\u00e1v\u00e1 kl\u00ed\u010dovou ot\u00e1zkou, jak pokra\u010dovat v tlaku na v\u00fdchodn\u00ed front\u011b, ani\u017e by musela doma vyhl\u00e1sit dal\u0161\u00ed rozs\u00e1hlou mobilizaci.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"rumble_v77ta0u\">\n<div id=\"vid_v77ta0u\" class=\"rumble_v77ta0u-Rumble-cls\" tabindex=\"-1\">\n<div><div class='videoWrapper'>\r\n\t            <iframe src='https:\/\/rumble.com\/embed\/pj.v77ta0u\/' frameborder='0' allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\r\n\t        <\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Rusko se t\u00e9to variant\u011b dlouhodob\u011b vyh\u00fdb\u00e1. \u010c\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e1 mobilizace z podzimu 2022 vyvolala ve spole\u010dnosti nervozitu a vedla k odchodu \u010d\u00e1sti mu\u017e\u016f do zahrani\u010d\u00ed. Kreml proto rad\u011bji vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 syst\u00e9m dobrovoln\u00fdch kontrakt\u016f, vysok\u00fdch n\u00e1borov\u00fdch bonus\u016f, region\u00e1ln\u00edch pob\u00eddek a postupn\u00e9ho dopl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed arm\u00e1dy bez dramatick\u00e9ho jednor\u00e1zov\u00e9ho kroku.<\/p>\n<p>Tento model v\u0161ak nen\u00ed zadarmo.\u00a0<strong>\u010c\u00edm d\u00e9le v\u00e1lka trv\u00e1, t\u00edm dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed je z\u00edskat nov\u00e9 kontraktory.<\/strong>\u00a0Rostouc\u00ed astronomick\u00e9 bonusy v rusk\u00fdch regionech nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee n\u00e1bor nov\u00fdch sil u\u017e nen\u00ed tak jednoduch\u00fd jako d\u0159\u00edve. Neznamen\u00e1 to automaticky, \u017ee Rusku doch\u00e1zej\u00ed lid\u00e9, ale znamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee cena za jejich z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed roste.<\/p>\n<h3>Severn\u00ed fronta jako n\u00e1stroj tlaku, nikoliv nutn\u011b jako za\u010d\u00e1tek ofenzivy<\/h3>\n<p>Pr\u00e1v\u011b zde vstupuje do hry b\u011blorusk\u00fd sm\u011br. Ukrajina byla po roce 2022 nucena vybudovat rozs\u00e1hlou obranu severn\u00ed hranice. Kyjev si nem\u016f\u017ee dovolit ignorovat mo\u017enost, \u017ee by se z b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed znovu otev\u0159el sm\u011br na \u010cernihiv nebo Kyjev. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00e1 mobilizace, ka\u017ed\u00e9 cvi\u010den\u00ed a ka\u017ed\u00fd p\u0159esun b\u011blorusk\u00fdch jednotek m\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd dopad na ukrajinsk\u00e9 pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed. Kyjev mus\u00ed dr\u017eet \u010d\u00e1st sil na severu, i kdy\u017e by je pot\u0159eboval na Donbasu, v Charkovsk\u00e9 oblasti nebo v Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"rumble_v77ta3s\">\n<div id=\"vid_v77ta3s\" class=\"rumble_v77ta3s-Rumble-cls\" tabindex=\"-1\">\n<div><div class='videoWrapper'>\r\n\t            <iframe src='https:\/\/rumble.com\/embed\/pj.v77ta3s\/' frameborder='0' allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\r\n\t        <\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Z rusk\u00e9ho pohledu je to mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b v\u00fdhodn\u00fd efekt. Nen\u00ed nutn\u00e9 okam\u017eit\u011b zah\u00e1jit velkou ofenzivu. Sta\u010d\u00ed vytvo\u0159it re\u00e1lnou mo\u017enost, \u017ee k n\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee doj\u00edt.\u00a0<strong>Vojensk\u00e1 strategie tento princip dob\u0159e zn\u00e1: nep\u0159\u00edtele lze oslabit nejen p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm \u00fatokem, ale tak\u00e9 fixac\u00ed jeho sil na sm\u011brech, kde se \u00fatok teprve m\u016f\u017ee objevit.<\/strong>\u00a0B\u011blorusk\u00fd sm\u011br tak m\u016f\u017ee slou\u017eit jako forma strategick\u00e9ho n\u00e1tlaku. Pokud Ukrajina pos\u00edl\u00ed sever, oslab\u00ed v\u00fdchod. Pokud sever podcen\u00ed, riskuje pr\u016flom sm\u011brem k hlavn\u00edmu m\u011bstu. To je p\u0159esn\u011b typ dilematu, kter\u00fd Moskva m\u016f\u017ee cht\u00edt Kyjevu vnutit.<\/p>\n<h3>Luka\u0161enko mezi Moskvou a vlastn\u00edmi riziky<\/h3>\n<p>Postaven\u00ed Alexandra Luka\u0161enka je slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se m\u016f\u017ee zd\u00e1t. B\u011blorusko je form\u00e1ln\u011b bl\u00edzk\u00fdm spojencem Ruska, ale p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 zapojen\u00ed b\u011blorusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy do v\u00e1lky by pro Minsk znamenalo v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 dom\u00e1c\u00ed riziko. B\u011blorusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da nen\u00ed rozs\u00e1hl\u00e1 a nem\u00e1 zku\u0161enost s intenzivn\u00ed modern\u00ed v\u00e1lkou takov\u00e9ho typu, jak\u00fd prob\u00edh\u00e1 na Ukrajin\u011b. P\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 nasazen\u00ed by mohlo v\u00e9st k citeln\u00fdm ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m a z\u00e1rove\u0148 vyvolat nespokojenost uvnit\u0159 b\u011blorusk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti. Luka\u0161enko si dob\u0159e uv\u011bdomuje, \u017ee jeho re\u017eim stoj\u00ed na kontrole, nikoliv na spont\u00e1nn\u00ed mobiliza\u010dn\u00ed euforii obyvatelstva.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_66964\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 705px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukashenkoChreninOffice.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-66964 \" src=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukashenkoChreninOffice-1024x576.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukashenkoChreninOffice-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukashenkoChreninOffice-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukashenkoChreninOffice-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukashenkoChreninOffice-700x394.jpg 700w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukashenkoChreninOffice-635x357.jpg 635w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukashenkoChreninOffice-859x483.jpg 859w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukashenkoChreninOffice.jpg 1280w\" alt=\"\" width=\"705\" height=\"397\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Alexander Luka\u0161enko s ministrem obrany Viktorem Chreninem<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b je B\u011blorusko po roce 2020 mnohem v\u00edce z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na Rusku. Minsk se po sankc\u00edch a vnitropolitick\u00e9 krizi op\u00edr\u00e1 o Moskvu ekonomicky, bezpe\u010dnostn\u011b i politicky. To omezuje Luka\u0161enk\u016fv man\u00e9vrovac\u00ed prostor. M\u016f\u017ee se sna\u017eit oddalovat p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 zapojen\u00ed, ale nem\u016f\u017ee jednodu\u0161e ignorovat rusk\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 po\u017eadavky.<\/p>\n<p>Proto je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee B\u011blorusko bude slou\u017eit sp\u00ed\u0161e jako opera\u010dn\u00ed prostor, logistick\u00e1 z\u00e1kladna a n\u00e1stroj tlaku ne\u017e jako plnohodnotn\u00fd \u00fato\u010dn\u00edk. Takov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 by Moskv\u011b umo\u017enil vyu\u017e\u00edt b\u011blorusk\u00fd faktor bez okam\u017eit\u00e9ho rizika rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch b\u011blorusk\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t, s jedinou v\u00fdjimkou \u2013\u00a0<strong>v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u00fatoku na Kyjev bude muset B\u011blorusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da na Ukrajinu, bok po boku Rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy.<\/strong>\u00a0Bez podpory b\u011blorusk\u00fdch vojsk je podle vojensk\u00fdch analytik\u016f v t\u00e9to situaci \u00fatok Rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy na Kyjev vylou\u010den. A to m\u011bn\u00ed situaci.<\/p>\n<h3>Kyjev mus\u00ed po\u010d\u00edtat s nejhor\u0161\u00ed variantou<\/h3>\n<p>Ukrajinsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed se v t\u00e9to situaci tak u\u017e nem\u016f\u017ee \u0159\u00eddit pouze t\u00edm, co pova\u017euje za nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Mus\u00ed pl\u00e1novat i podle toho, co by bylo nejnebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. A nejnebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed variantou je obnoven\u00ed tlaku ze severu sm\u011brem na Kyjev. Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto maj\u00ed v\u00fdroky Zelensk\u00e9ho o mo\u017en\u00e9m \u00fatoku na \u010cernihivsko-kyjevsk\u00fd sm\u011br v\u00fdznam nejen vojensk\u00fd, ale i politick\u00fd. Kyjev t\u00edm vys\u00edl\u00e1 sign\u00e1l vlastn\u00ed ve\u0159ejnosti, spojenc\u016fm i NATO, \u017ee severn\u00ed hranice z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 rizikov\u00fdm prostorem a \u017ee Ukrajina pot\u0159ebuje dal\u0161\u00ed zdroje k obran\u011b v\u00edce sm\u011br\u016f sou\u010dasn\u011b.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_54114\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 705px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukashenkoPutinSummitMinsk.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-54114 \" src=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukashenkoPutinSummitMinsk-1024x576.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukashenkoPutinSummitMinsk-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukashenkoPutinSummitMinsk-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukashenkoPutinSummitMinsk-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukashenkoPutinSummitMinsk-700x394.jpg 700w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukashenkoPutinSummitMinsk-635x357.jpg 635w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukashenkoPutinSummitMinsk-859x483.jpg 859w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukashenkoPutinSummitMinsk.jpg 1280w\" alt=\"\" width=\"705\" height=\"397\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Luak\u0161enko a Putin po skon\u010den\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed za zav\u0159en\u00fdmi dve\u0159mi<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Z vojensk\u00e9ho hlediska se v\u0161ak velk\u00fd \u00fatok na Kyjev jev\u00ed jako mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e1 operace. Vy\u017eadoval by rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 s\u00edly, logistiku, zabezpe\u010den\u00ed z\u00e1sobovac\u00edch tras a schopnost p\u0159ekonat obranu, kter\u00e1 je dnes v\u00fdrazn\u011b p\u0159ipraven\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v \u00fanoru 2022. Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed proto m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt omezen\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159: demonstrativn\u00ed koncentrace vojsk, cvi\u010den\u00ed, pr\u016fzkumn\u00e9 aktivity, diverzn\u00ed tlak, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b lok\u00e1ln\u00ed operace, jejich\u017e hlavn\u00edm c\u00edlem nebude zpo\u010d\u00e1tku dobyt\u00ed Kyjeva, ale v\u00e1z\u00e1n\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch rezerv, a\u017e do doby, ne\u017e Kreml rozhodne j\u00edt d\u00e1l.<\/p>\n<h3>Doch\u00e1z\u00ed Rusku dobrovoln\u00edci? V roce 2026 p\u0159es\u00e1hl p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek za podpis kontraktu 4,6 milionu rubl\u016f za prvn\u00ed rok<\/h3>\n<p>Ot\u00e1zka, zda Rusku doch\u00e1zej\u00ed dobrovoln\u00edci, nem\u00e1 jednoduchou odpov\u011b\u010f. Rusko m\u00e1 st\u00e1le v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed popula\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1kladnu ne\u017e Ukrajina a disponuje mo\u017enost\u00ed postupn\u00e9ho dopl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed arm\u00e1dy. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u0161ak plat\u00ed, \u017ee dlouh\u00e1 v\u00e1lka spot\u0159ebov\u00e1v\u00e1 lidsk\u00e9 zdroje tempem, kter\u00e9 nelze donekone\u010dna kompenzovat pouze finan\u010dn\u00edmi pob\u00eddkami. Rostouc\u00ed n\u00e1borov\u00e9 bonusy ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee st\u00e1t mus\u00ed za nov\u00e9 kontraktory platit st\u00e1le v\u00edce.<\/p>\n<p>To je zn\u00e1mka nap\u011bt\u00ed v syst\u00e9mu. Nejde nutn\u011b o nedostatek lid\u00ed v absolutn\u00edm smyslu, ale o rostouc\u00ed cenu za jejich ochotu vstoupit do v\u00e1lky. Garantovan\u00e1 v\u00fdplata dosahuje nov\u011b 2 100 000 rubl\u016f, kter\u00e1 je garantovan\u011b vyplacena v\u017edy, i v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b smrti kontraktora, a to obvykle jeho rodin\u011b, man\u017eelce.\u00a0<strong>Cel\u00fd p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek po \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9m dokon\u010den\u00ed kontraktu \u010din\u00ed 4 620 000 rubl\u016f.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>V z\u00f3n\u011b SVO se vedle zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9ho jednor\u00e1zov\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku za podpis kontraktu nav\u00edc vypl\u00e1c\u00ed i tzv.\u00a0<em>bojov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek v nasazen\u00ed<\/em>, kter\u00fd se pohybuje od 210 000 rubl\u016f m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b. Na rusk\u00e9 pom\u011bry jde o naprosto nev\u00eddan\u00e9 sumy. Medi\u00e1nov\u00e1 mzda v Rusku je zhruba 74 000 rubl\u016f, pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 mzda je okolo 83 000 rubl\u016f, v Moskv\u011b je pr\u016fm\u011br okolo 100 000 rubl\u016f. \u017dold v z\u00f3n\u011b SVO ve v\u00fd\u0161i 210 000 rubl\u016f je tak skoro 3-n\u00e1sobkem rusk\u00e9ho medi\u00e1nu.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_66965\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 714px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/RecruitingPosterRussianArmy.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-66965 \" src=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/RecruitingPosterRussianArmy-1024x511.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/RecruitingPosterRussianArmy-1024x511.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/RecruitingPosterRussianArmy-300x150.jpg 300w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/RecruitingPosterRussianArmy-768x383.jpg 768w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/RecruitingPosterRussianArmy-700x349.jpg 700w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/RecruitingPosterRussianArmy-715x357.jpg 715w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/RecruitingPosterRussianArmy-968x483.jpg 968w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/RecruitingPosterRussianArmy.jpg 1280w\" alt=\"\" width=\"714\" height=\"356\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">N\u00e1borov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek za podpis kontraktu v roce 2026 dosahuje 4 620 000 rubl\u016f za prvn\u00ed rok slu\u017eby. Garantovan\u00e1 v\u00fdplata (v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b smrti p\u0159ed dokon\u010den\u00edm kontraktu) 2 100 000 rubl\u016f, v\u00fdplaty m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b od 210 000 rubl\u016f v z\u00f3n\u011b SVO<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Rusk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed kase se tak v\u00e1lka opravdu prodra\u017euje. Z tohoto hlediska d\u00e1v\u00e1 aktivace b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho sm\u011bru smysl. Pokud Moskva dok\u00e1\u017ee donutit Ukrajinu p\u0159esunout \u010d\u00e1st sil na sever, m\u016f\u017ee t\u00edm relativn\u011b levn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eit ukrajinskou koncentraci na Donbasu. Jin\u00fdmi slovy: nen\u00ed nutn\u00e9 dodat na v\u00fdchodn\u00ed frontu des\u00edtky tis\u00edc nov\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f, pokud lze \u010d\u00e1st ukrajinsk\u00fdch jednotek odt\u00e1hnout jinam.<\/p>\n<p>Hrozba ale mus\u00ed b\u00fdt uv\u011b\u0159iteln\u00e1, aby to fungovalo. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee B\u011blorusko se mus\u00ed opravdu p\u0159ipravit na v\u00e1lku, ne jenom jako, ale doopravdy. A tady nast\u00e1v\u00e1 probl\u00e9m a past. Pokud bude B\u011blorusko p\u0159ipraveno na v\u00e1lku doopravdy, ne jenom jako, bude u\u017e jen kr\u016f\u010dek od nasazen\u00ed B\u011blorusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy na Ukrajin\u011b tak\u00e9 doopravdy, u\u017e ne jenom jako na stra\u0161en\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9ho gen\u0161t\u00e1bu na severn\u00ed hranici Ukrajiny.<\/p>\n<h3>Donbas jako hlavn\u00ed c\u00edl cel\u00e9 operace. V roce 2023 za kontrakt jen 1 400 000 rubl\u016f, dnes o 3 roky pozd\u011bji skoro 2x tolik<\/h3>\n<p>Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdznam b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho sm\u011bru proto m\u016f\u017ee le\u017eet nikoliv na severu, ale na v\u00fdchod\u011b. Donbas z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 pro Rusko kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm boji\u0161t\u011bm. Ka\u017ed\u00e9 oslaben\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch rezerv na tomto sm\u011bru m\u016f\u017ee zv\u00fd\u0161it ruskou \u0161anci na dal\u0161\u00ed postup. Pokud Ukrajina kv\u016fli obav\u011b ze severn\u00ed fronty ponech\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st elitn\u00edch jednotek u Kyjeva a \u010cernihivu, budou tyto s\u00edly chyb\u011bt p\u0159i obran\u011b Don\u011bck\u00e9 oblasti.<\/p>\n<p>To je p\u0159esn\u011b efekt, kter\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee Moskva sledovat.\u00a0<strong>B\u011blorusk\u00e1 mobilizace tak nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt p\u0159edehrou k okam\u017eit\u00e9mu \u00fatoku, ale sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho opera\u010dn\u00edho man\u00e9vru.<\/strong>\u00a0Jej\u00edm c\u00edlem m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt vyvolat nejistotu, prodra\u017eit ukrajinskou obranu, v\u00e1zat rezervy a vytvo\u0159it lep\u0161\u00ed podm\u00ednky pro rusk\u00fd tlak jinde. V\u00e1lka se ale prodra\u017euje i Rusku, proto\u017ee v roce 2023 se vypl\u00e1celo za podpis kontraktu s Ruskou arm\u00e1dou jen 1 400 000 rubl\u016f.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_66966\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 677px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/RecruitingPosterRussianArmy2.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-66966 \" src=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/RecruitingPosterRussianArmy2.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/RecruitingPosterRussianArmy2.jpg 700w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/RecruitingPosterRussianArmy2-263x300.jpg 263w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/RecruitingPosterRussianArmy2-313x357.jpg 313w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/RecruitingPosterRussianArmy2-424x483.jpg 424w\" alt=\"\" width=\"677\" height=\"772\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">N\u00e1borov\u00fd let\u00e1k z roku 2023. P\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek tehdy \u010dinil jen 1 400 000 rubl\u016f<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Dal\u0161\u00ed rovinu p\u0159edstavuje NATO. Pokud se b\u011blorusk\u00e9 jednotky p\u0159esouvaj\u00ed sm\u011brem k z\u00e1padn\u00edm hranic\u00edm, pozornost se neomezuje pouze na Ukrajinu. Polsko, Litva a Loty\u0161sko mus\u00ed sledovat vlastn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed situaci a aliance mus\u00ed po\u010d\u00edtat s mo\u017enost\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edho nap\u011bt\u00ed na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm k\u0159\u00eddle.<\/p>\n<p>Pro Moskvu m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt tento efekt samostatnou hodnotu. \u010c\u00edm v\u00edce mus\u00ed NATO pl\u00e1novat obranu v\u00fdchodn\u00edho k\u0159\u00eddla, t\u00edm slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je politick\u00e1 i vojensk\u00e1 koordinace podpory Ukrajin\u011b. B\u011blorusko se tak st\u00e1v\u00e1 nejen ukrajinsk\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem, ale i n\u00e1strojem \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho tlaku na evropskou bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architekturu.<\/p>\n<h3>V\u00e1lka nerv\u016f vstupuje do nov\u00e9 f\u00e1ze. N\u00e1klady na v\u00e1lku pro Ruskou arm\u00e1du rostou do astronomick\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161in. V roce 2022 st\u00e1l kontrakt 5x m\u00e9n\u011b<\/h3>\n<p>Sou\u010dasn\u00e9 d\u011bn\u00ed kolem B\u011bloruska zat\u00edm nemus\u00ed znamenat bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed za\u010d\u00e1tek nov\u00e9 velk\u00e9 ofenzivy. Mnohem pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bji jde o kombinaci vojensk\u00e9ho n\u00e1tlaku, psychologick\u00e9 operace a snahy rozpt\u00fdlit ukrajinsk\u00e9 s\u00edly. Rusko m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt k tomuto kroku tla\u010deno pot\u0159ebou zlep\u0161it svou pozici na Donbasu bez dal\u0161\u00ed politicky citliv\u00e9 mobilizace doma.<\/p>\n<p>B\u011blorusko mu nab\u00edz\u00ed n\u00e1stroj, jak vytv\u00e1\u0159et tlak na severu, ani\u017e by nutn\u011b muselo okam\u017eit\u011b otev\u0159\u00edt plnohodnotnou novou frontu.\u00a0<strong>Ale znovu je t\u0159eba \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee Ukrajina a\u017e dosud t\u00e9 hrozb\u011b nev\u011b\u0159ila a na severn\u00ed hranici Ukrajiny jsou naprosto minim\u00e1ln\u00ed stavy ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy.<\/strong>\u00a0Pro zm\u011bnu Rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da u\u017e rovn\u011b\u017e nem\u016f\u017ee po\u010d\u00edtat s lacin\u00fdmi dobrovoln\u00edky. V roce 2022 jim vypl\u00e1cela jednor\u00e1zov\u011b 505 000 rubl\u016f. Dnes v roce 2026 je to 5x v\u00edce!<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_66967\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 600px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/KontraktRuArmy2022.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-66967 \" src=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/KontraktRuArmy2022.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/KontraktRuArmy2022.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/KontraktRuArmy2022-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/KontraktRuArmy2022-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/KontraktRuArmy2022-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/KontraktRuArmy2022-700x700.jpg 700w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/KontraktRuArmy2022-357x357.jpg 357w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/KontraktRuArmy2022-483x483.jpg 483w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/KontraktRuArmy2022-210x210.jpg 210w\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"600\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">V roce 2022 vypl\u00e1cela Rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da n\u00e1borov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek ve v\u00fd\u0161i jen 505 000 rubl\u016f<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Ukrajina proto te\u010f u\u017e nem\u016f\u017ee riskovat, \u017ee severn\u00ed hrozbu podcen\u00ed. Pr\u00e1v\u011b v tom spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 hlavn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinek cel\u00e9 situace. I pokud b\u011blorusk\u00e9 jednotky nikdy nep\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed hranici, jejich aktivace m\u016f\u017ee splnit strategick\u00fd \u00fa\u010del: dr\u017eet ukrajinsk\u00e9 velen\u00ed v nejistot\u011b a nutit ho rozd\u011blovat s\u00edly mezi v\u00edce sm\u011br\u016f. B\u011blorusk\u00fd faktor se tak st\u00e1v\u00e1 sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lky nerv\u016f. Nejde pouze o ot\u00e1zku, zda Minsk vstoup\u00ed do v\u00e1lky p\u0159\u00edmo. Jde o to, \u017ee samotn\u00e1 mo\u017enost tohoto kroku m\u011bn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 kalkulace Kyjeva, Moskvy i NATO.<\/p>\n<h3>Rostouc\u00ed tlak uvnit\u0159 Ruska a ot\u00e1zka \u201eurychlen\u00e9 ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky\u201c<\/h3>\n<p>Do cel\u00e9 situace nav\u00edc vstupuje je\u0161t\u011b jeden faktor, kter\u00fd b\u00fdv\u00e1 mimo Rusko \u010dasto podce\u0148ov\u00e1n: vnit\u0159n\u00ed tlak na ukon\u010den\u00ed vlekl\u00e9ho konfliktu. V\u00e1lka trv\u00e1 d\u00e9le, ne\u017e Moskva p\u016fvodn\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1vala, a p\u0159esto\u017ee rusk\u00fd st\u00e1t dok\u00e1zal ekonomiku p\u0159epnout do v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho re\u017eimu,\u00a0<strong>dlouhodob\u00fd konflikt postupn\u011b vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed uvnit\u0159 samotn\u00e9ho mocensk\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Symbolick\u00fdm momentem leto\u0161n\u00edch spekulac\u00ed byla p\u0159ehl\u00eddka 9. kv\u011btna na Rud\u00e9m n\u00e1m\u011bst\u00ed. Oproti minul\u00fdm rok\u016fm p\u016fsobila v\u00fdrazn\u011b st\u0159\u00eddm\u011bji a pozornost vyvolala p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm absence pozemn\u00ed bojov\u00e9 techniky. Podle n\u011bkter\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f a koment\u00e1tor\u016f p\u0159itom p\u0159ehl\u00eddkov\u00e9 stroje nezmizely kv\u016fli nedostatku techniky na front\u011b, ale m\u011bly z\u016fstat v gar\u00e1\u017e\u00edch Suvorovsk\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho \u0161koln\u00edho institutu.<\/p>\n<div class=\"twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered\"><iframe id=\"twitter-widget-0\" class=\"\" title=\"X Post\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?dnt=false&amp;embedId=twitter-widget-0&amp;features=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%3D%3D&amp;frame=false&amp;hideCard=false&amp;hideThread=false&amp;id=2055863548736418008&amp;lang=cs&amp;origin=https%3A%2F%2Faeronet.news%2Fbelorusky-ministr-obrany-dostal-od-lukasenka-rozkaz-k-mobilizaci-vybranych-utvaru-armady-podle-zelenskeho-pry-moskva-chysta-otevreni-beloruskeho-frontu%2F&amp;sessionId=61cac0a418b9591461c48cf45775600cd415bca5&amp;theme=light&amp;widgetsVersion=6a3ad42b224df%3A1778106238597&amp;width=550px\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-tweet-id=\"2055863548736418008\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p>Pr\u00e1v\u011b tato okolnost vyvolala mezi analytiky dal\u0161\u00ed ot\u00e1zky. \u010c\u00e1st z nich upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee rusk\u00e9 veden\u00ed po zku\u0161enosti s povst\u00e1n\u00edm Jevgenije Prigo\u017eina za\u010dalo mnohem citliv\u011bji vn\u00edmat ot\u00e1zku loajality ozbrojen\u00fdch struktur. V rusk\u00e9m historick\u00e9m kontextu nav\u00edc existuje siln\u00e1 psychologick\u00e1 stopa ud\u00e1lost\u00ed ze srpna 1991, kdy pr\u00e1v\u011b nasazen\u00ed tank\u016f v Moskv\u011b sehr\u00e1lo kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli b\u011bhem pokusu o p\u0159evrat proti Michailu Gorba\u010dovovi.<\/p>\n<p>Z tohoto pohledu n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed koment\u00e1to\u0159i interpretuj\u00ed omezenou p\u0159\u00edtomnost t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 techniky v centru Moskvy jako bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed proti pu\u010di. Tato interpretace sice nen\u00ed ofici\u00e1ln\u011b potvrzena, ale zapad\u00e1 do \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho obrazu rostouc\u00ed ned\u016fv\u011bry uvnit\u0159 \u010d\u00e1sti rusk\u00e9ho mocensk\u00e9ho apar\u00e1tu po ud\u00e1lostech posledn\u00edch let.<\/p>\n<h3>\u010cistky v Kremlu jsou d\u016fkazem, \u017ee opot\u0159ebov\u00e1vac\u00ed v\u00e1lka ji\u017e nen\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm, je t\u0159eba v\u00e1lku ukon\u010dit co nejrychleji<\/h3>\n<p>Sou\u010dasn\u011b pokra\u010duj\u00ed rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 person\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bny v okol\u00ed b\u00fdval\u00e9ho ministra obrany Sergeje \u0160ojgua. V posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch prob\u011bhla s\u00e9rie zat\u010den\u00ed, vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed a \u010distek v arm\u00e1dn\u00edch a logistick\u00fdch struktur\u00e1ch ministerstva obrany. Ofici\u00e1ln\u011b jde o protikorup\u010dn\u00ed operace, ale v z\u00e1kulis\u00ed se st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji hovo\u0159\u00ed tak\u00e9 o mocensk\u00e9m boji uvnit\u0159 rusk\u00fdch elit a o nespokojenosti \u010d\u00e1sti arm\u00e1dn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed s pr\u016fb\u011bhem v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n<p>Pr\u00e1v\u011b zde vznik\u00e1 teorie, kterou nyn\u00ed diskutuje \u010d\u00e1st analytik\u016f:\u00a0<strong>Kreml u\u017e nemus\u00ed vn\u00edmat b\u011blorusk\u00fd sm\u011br pouze jako prost\u0159edek k v\u00e1z\u00e1n\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch rezerv, ale jako potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1stroj k urychlen\u00ed konce v\u00e1lky.<\/strong>\u00a0Jin\u00fdmi slovy \u2014 pokud v Moskv\u011b s\u00edl\u00ed pocit, \u017ee vlekl\u00fd konflikt za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 b\u00fdt nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd i pro vnit\u0159n\u00ed stabilitu vl\u00e1dy, m\u016f\u017ee nar\u016fstat tlak na dosa\u017een\u00ed rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edho strategick\u00e9ho zlomu. V tomto kontextu se znovu objevuje sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 takzvan\u00e9 \u201edekapita\u010dn\u00ed operace\u201c, tedy pokusu o rychl\u00e9 ochromen\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u00fatoku na Kyjev.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_64871\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 705px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukasenkoPutinTalksKremlin.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-64871 \" src=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukasenkoPutinTalksKremlin-1024x576.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukasenkoPutinTalksKremlin-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukasenkoPutinTalksKremlin-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukasenkoPutinTalksKremlin-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukasenkoPutinTalksKremlin-700x394.jpg 700w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukasenkoPutinTalksKremlin-635x357.jpg 635w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukasenkoPutinTalksKremlin-859x483.jpg 859w, https:\/\/aeronet.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/LukasenkoPutinTalksKremlin.jpg 1280w\" alt=\"\" width=\"705\" height=\"397\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Alexander Luka\u0161enko s Vladimirem Putinem na tiskov\u00e9 konferenci<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Z vojensk\u00e9ho hlediska by \u0161lo o mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b riskantn\u00ed operaci, kter\u00e1 by vy\u017eadovala rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 s\u00edly a nesla by obrovsk\u00e9 logistick\u00e9 n\u00e1roky.\u00a0<strong>Z pohledu \u010d\u00e1sti rusk\u00fdch strat\u00e9g\u016f by v\u0161ak mohla p\u0159edstavovat jedinou mo\u017enost, jak konflikt v\u00fdrazn\u011b urychlit bez nutnosti dal\u0161\u00edch zhruba 5 a\u017e 10 let vy\u010derp\u00e1vac\u00ed v\u00e1lky.<\/strong>\u00a0Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto nyn\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 velen\u00ed bere b\u011blorusk\u00e9 pohyby velmi v\u00e1\u017en\u011b. Zat\u00edmco je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed rokem p\u0159evl\u00e1dal n\u00e1zor, \u017ee severn\u00ed sm\u011br slou\u017e\u00ed hlavn\u011b jako psychologick\u00fd tlak, dnes \u010d\u00e1st analytik\u016f upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee situace m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt odli\u0161n\u00e1.<\/p>\n<p>Pokud by se v Moskv\u011b spojil tlak na rychlej\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdsledek v\u00e1lky s obavami z vnit\u0159n\u00ed destabilizace, mohla by se ochota podstoupit riskantn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed operaci v\u00fdrazn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161it. To z\u00e1rove\u0148 vysv\u011btluje, pro\u010d Kyjev i NATO reaguj\u00ed na b\u011bloruskou mobilizaci mnohem citliv\u011bji ne\u017e v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch. Nejde pouze o po\u010det voj\u00e1k\u016f nebo techniky. Jde o ot\u00e1zku, zda se strategick\u00e9 uva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed Kremlu neposouv\u00e1 od dlouh\u00e9 opot\u0159ebovac\u00ed v\u00e1lky sm\u011brem k pokusu o z\u00e1sadn\u00ed pr\u016flom do Kyjeva ze severu, kter\u00fd by konflikt rozhodl rychleji a s men\u0161\u00edmi politick\u00fdmi riziky uvnit\u0159 samotn\u00e9ho Ruska.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/aeronet.news\/belorusky-ministr-obrany-dostal-od-lukasenka-rozkaz-k-mobilizaci-vybranych-utvaru-armady-podle-zelenskeho-pry-moskva-chysta-otevreni-beloruskeho-frontu\/\">-VK-<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>B\u011blorusk\u00fd ministr obrany dostal od Luka\u0161enka rozkaz k mobilizaci vybran\u00fdch \u00fatvar\u016f arm\u00e1dy! Podle Zelensk\u00e9ho pr\u00fd&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":106850,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,150,1929,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106849"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=106849"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106849\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/106850"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=106849"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=106849"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=106849"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}