{"id":106717,"date":"2026-05-17T00:18:09","date_gmt":"2026-05-16T22:18:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=106717"},"modified":"2026-05-16T15:54:24","modified_gmt":"2026-05-16T13:54:24","slug":"brandon-smith-zlato-dluh-a-nevyhnutelny-globalni-kolaps-trhu-s-bydlenim","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/17\/brandon-smith-zlato-dluh-a-nevyhnutelny-globalni-kolaps-trhu-s-bydlenim\/","title":{"rendered":"Brandon Smith: Zlato, dluh a nevyhnuteln\u00fd glob\u00e1ln\u00ed kolaps trhu s bydlen\u00edm"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
\n
\n

Snad nejdiskutovan\u011bj\u0161\u00edm ekonomick\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem sou\u010dasnosti je obava, \u017ee drtiv\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina lid\u00ed si ji\u017e nebude moci dovolit nemovitost po zbytek \u017eivota, bez ohledu na to, ve kter\u00e9 zemi \u017eij\u00ed. Mlad\u00ed lid\u00e9 generace Z a dokonce i generace Alfa ji\u017e pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed budoucnost, v n\u00ed\u017e vlastnictv\u00ed domu nebude mo\u017en\u00e9. Ti, kte\u0159\u00ed si ho koup\u00ed, maj\u00ed tendenci up\u0159ednost\u0148ovat n\u00e1kladovou efektivitu a nakupovat sami (up\u0159ednost\u0148uj\u00ed \u00faspory a vlastnictv\u00ed domu p\u0159ed man\u017eelstv\u00edm).<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto je t\u00e9ma na jin\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nek, ale p\u0159edstavuje obrat v tradi\u010dn\u00edm chov\u00e1n\u00ed spot\u0159ebitel\u016f; z\u00e1sadn\u00ed zm\u011bnu, kterou je t\u0159eba prozkoumat, proto\u017ee odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed soci\u00e1ln\u00ed a ekonomick\u00e9 probl\u00e9my.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto v\u00fdzvy se neomezuj\u00ed pouze na USA; v cel\u00e9m z\u00e1padn\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b, od Austr\u00e1lie po Kanadu a velkou \u010d\u00e1st Evropy, \u010del\u00ed lid\u00e9 nejhor\u0161\u00ed inflaci cen bydlen\u00ed za posledn\u00ed desetilet\u00ed a zoufale hledaj\u00ed zp\u016fsoby, jak se j\u00ed p\u0159izp\u016fsobit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stejn\u011b jako ve fyzice existuj\u00ed z\u00e1kony pohybu, kter\u00e9 plat\u00ed i pro trhy, bez ohledu na intervence vl\u00e1dy nebo centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky. Co roste, mus\u00ed nevyhnuteln\u011b klesat. V lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce do\u0161lo k zaj\u00edmav\u00e9mu v\u00fdvoji, zejm\u00e9na na stran\u011b prod\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch na trhu s nemovitostmi, a to nazna\u010duje velk\u00e9 zm\u011bny v bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kv\u016fli pandemii, boomu v oblasti st\u011bhov\u00e1n\u00ed, ekonomick\u00fdm opat\u0159en\u00edm v souvislosti s Covidem a n\u00e1r\u016fstu po\u010dtu kupuj\u00edc\u00edch komer\u010dn\u00edch nemovitost\u00ed se ceny plo\u0161n\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161ily a pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na vlastnictv\u00ed domu mezi lety 2019 a 2024 prudce vzrostly o 50 % nebo v\u00edce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st t\u011bchto n\u00e1kup\u016f se t\u00fdkala lid\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed se sna\u017eili uniknout drakonick\u00fdm regulac\u00edm \u201emodr\u00fdch\u201c st\u00e1t\u016f, ale existovalo tak\u00e9 mnoho spekulant\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed se sna\u017eili vyu\u017e\u00edt trhu a rychle vyd\u011blat pen\u00edze v o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edho r\u016fstu cen. M\u00edsto toho se popt\u00e1vka zhroutila a kupuj\u00edc\u00edch je m\u00e1lo, aby uspokojili nab\u00eddku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vyhled\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdrazu \u201eNem\u016f\u017eu prodat sv\u016fj d\u016fm\u201c na Googlu dos\u00e1hlo minul\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc nov\u00e9ho maxima a p\u0159ekonalo vrchol propadu v roce 2008. P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 se, \u017ee prodej dom\u016f mezi lety 2020 a 2026 klesne o 32 %, zat\u00edmco nab\u00eddka prudce vzrostla. Realitn\u00ed makl\u00e9\u0159i varuj\u00ed p\u0159ed masivn\u00edm zpomalen\u00edm, proto\u017ee mnoho prod\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch odm\u00edt\u00e1 \u0159\u00e1dn\u011b posoudit trh a sn\u00ed\u017eit sv\u00e9 ceny, zat\u00edmco se sna\u017e\u00ed naj\u00edt z\u00e1jemce o koupi.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u016fvodem patov\u00e9 situace a zamrzl\u00e9ho trhu je z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti dluh. V roce 2008 byl krach zp\u016fsoben snadno dostupn\u00fdmi hypote\u010dn\u00edmi \u00fav\u011bry pro lidi, kte\u0159\u00ed nem\u011bli p\u0159\u00edjem na pokryt\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f na hypot\u00e9ky s variabiln\u00ed \u00farokovou sazbou (ARM), jejich\u017e \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby se v pr\u016fb\u011bhu \u010dasu zvy\u0161ovaly. Miliony dom\u016f byly prod\u00e1ny lidem, kte\u0159\u00ed nem\u011bli pot\u0159ebn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edjem na jejich koupi, a v\u0161ichni najednou zkrachovali, co\u017e zp\u016fsobilo kolaps syst\u00e9mu a s n\u00edm spojen\u00fdch deriv\u00e1t\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Miliony majitel\u016f dom\u016f jsou dnes v\u00e1z\u00e1ny extr\u00e9mn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00fdmi hypote\u010dn\u00edmi sazbami z minul\u00fdch let. Prodej by znamenal vzd\u00e1t se \u00fav\u011bru s \u00farokovou sazbou 3 % a nahradit ho \u00fav\u011brem s t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 6,5 %. Proto neprod\u00e1vaj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mnoho majitel\u016f koupilo nemovitosti na vrcholu pandemick\u00e9ho boomu a r\u016fstu cen. Nyn\u00ed se ocitli v situaci, kdy se sna\u017e\u00ed prodat domy v hodnot\u011b 250 000 dolar\u016f za 600 000 dolar\u016f a domy v hodnot\u011b 500 000 dolar\u016f za v\u00edce ne\u017e milion dolar\u016f. Prodej s v\u00fdraznou slevou by v podstat\u011b znamenal dal\u0161\u00ed zadlu\u017een\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9m je v tom, \u017ee NIKDO si nechce koupit d\u016fm za 600 000 dolar\u016f, kdy\u017e v\u00ed, \u017ee za p\u00e1r let bude m\u00edt hodnotu jen 250 000 dolar\u016f. Nakonec spekulanti uv\u00edznou u sv\u00fdch nemovitost\u00ed a zb\u00fdvaj\u00ed jim jen dv\u011b mo\u017enosti: d\u00e1t sv\u00e9 p\u0159ebyte\u010dn\u00e9 domy na trh s pron\u00e1jmy nebo drasticky sn\u00ed\u017eit ceny a sm\u00ed\u0159it se se ztr\u00e1tou.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u011b\u0159\u00edm, \u017ee se tak stane v pr\u016fb\u011bhu p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku ve zrychlen\u00e9 form\u011b, i kdy\u017e dojde k intervenci ze strany vl\u00e1dy nebo centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Opat\u0159en\u00ed podporuj\u00edc\u00ed inflaci tentokr\u00e1t trh s nemovitostmi nezachr\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

To znamen\u00e1 zna\u010dn\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty kapit\u00e1lu v nemovitostech a celkov\u00e9ho bohatstv\u00ed obyvatelstva, nemluv\u011b o prudk\u00e9m poklesu hypote\u010dn\u00edch \u00fav\u011br\u016f a \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9 likvidity. Omezen\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup k \u00fav\u011br\u016fm znamen\u00e1 oslaben\u00ed spot\u0159eby. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b komer\u010dn\u00edch kupuj\u00edc\u00edch a bank by stimula\u010dn\u00ed bal\u00ed\u010dek mohl ochr\u00e1nit je, ale ne b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho ob\u010dana.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tam, kde nen\u00ed likvidita, doch\u00e1z\u00ed k krachu. V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b se zd\u00e1, \u017ee tok pen\u011bz st\u00e1le prob\u00edh\u00e1 zdrav\u00fdm tempem, ale to plat\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm pro akciov\u00fd trh, kter\u00fd nen\u00ed ukazatelem stabiln\u00ed ekonomiky. Akcie nejsou \u010dasn\u00fdm ukazatelem kriz\u00ed; v\u017edy se objev\u00ed pozd\u011b. Obecn\u011bji \u0159e\u010deno, akcie nebudou signalizovat budouc\u00ed kolaps trhu s nemovitostmi ani nebudou odr\u00e1\u017eet sou\u010dasnou neochotu nakupovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lze tento potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed pokles zvl\u00e1dnout? Ano, do ur\u010dit\u00e9 m\u00edry, ale ne v glob\u00e1ln\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku, pouze v n\u00e1rodn\u00edm. A ani tehdy to nezm\u011bn\u00ed kone\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdsledek, kter\u00fdm jsou konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty likvidity a prudk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst dluhu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro lidi, kte\u0159\u00ed \u010dekaj\u00ed na koupi domu, by to mohla b\u00fdt dobr\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va. Sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed cen o 30 % a\u017e 50 % je mo\u017en\u00e9 a u\u017e d\u00e1vno o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9. Kupuj\u00edc\u00ed v\u0161ak pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b po\u010dkaj\u00ed, dokud neuv\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee ceny dos\u00e1hly dna. Mezit\u00edm existuje riziko syst\u00e9mov\u00e9ho po\u0161kozen\u00ed akciov\u00fdch a \u00fav\u011brov\u00fdch trh\u016f po krachu. Investo\u0159i budou hledat bezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed alternativu.<\/span><\/p>\n

To n\u00e1s vede k trendu, kter\u00fd se vyvinul v posledn\u00edch letech a kter\u00fd jsme nevid\u011bli od krachu v letech 2008\u20132012. Tento krach se shodoval s historick\u00fdm n\u00e1r\u016fstem cen zlata a st\u0159\u00edbra a stejn\u00fd vzorec se nyn\u00ed objevuje znovu. B\u011bhem kr\u00e1tk\u00fdch obdob\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 nejistoty se nemovitosti ji\u017e nemus\u00ed jevit jako bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edsto pro investov\u00e1n\u00ed pen\u011bz. Kdy\u017e trhy panika\u0159\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00ed hmotn\u00e1 aktiva ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed hodnotu, drah\u00e9 kovy se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed preferovanou investic\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Navzdory prudk\u00fdm v\u00fdkyv\u016fm v posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch je cena zlata od roku 2019 st\u00e1le o 270 % vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b bude i nad\u00e1le r\u016fst, a to i v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b kolapsu realitn\u00edch trh\u016f. D\u016fvod je jednoduch\u00fd: Spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fd dluh nad\u00e1le roste navzdory intervenc\u00edm centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank a zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. Tato opat\u0159en\u00ed m\u011bla omezit spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 zadlu\u017een\u00ed, ale k tomu nedo\u0161lo.<\/span><\/p>\n

A s r\u016fstem dluhu nevyhnuteln\u011b rostou i ceny drah\u00fdch kov\u016f (inflace v d\u016fsledku opat\u0159en\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9ho stimulu nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt nutn\u011b p\u0159\u00edtomna, ale obvykle ano).<\/span><\/p>\n

Hypote\u010dn\u00ed dluh v USA od roku 2019 prudce vzrostl o 38 %. Dluh z americk\u00fdch spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch kreditn\u00edch karet se od roku 2019 zv\u00fd\u0161il o 35 %. Vl\u00e1dn\u00ed dluh USA od roku 2019 vzrostl o 71 %. Nemovitosti d\u0159\u00edve nab\u00edzely bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 \u00fato\u010di\u0161t\u011b na zadlu\u017een\u00fdch trz\u00edch, ale to se ch\u00fdl\u00ed ke konci. V tomto prost\u0159ed\u00ed zb\u00fdv\u00e1 jen velmi m\u00e1lo bezpe\u010dn\u00fdch \u00fato\u010di\u0161\u0165. Pokud se akciov\u00e9 trhy zhrout\u00ed (co\u017e je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9), drah\u00e9 kovy jsou jednou z posledn\u00edch ba\u0161t bezpe\u010d\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rozhodn\u011b existuje korela\u010dn\u00ed trend, kter\u00fd p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 krizi z let 2008\u20132012. Kdykoli ceny bydlen\u00ed v USA klesnou nebo v\u00fdrazn\u011b zpomal\u00ed, ceny zlata a st\u0159\u00edbra maj\u00ed tendenci r\u016fst.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak ji\u017e bylo zm\u00edn\u011bno, kolaps trhu s bydlen\u00edm ne\u010del\u00ed jen USA. Zpr\u00e1vy nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee situace je je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed v Kanad\u011b, Austr\u00e1lii, Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nii a v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b Evropy. Nap\u0159\u00edklad v Kanad\u011b hledaj\u00ed levicov\u011b sm\u00fd\u0161lej\u00edc\u00ed Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 alternativn\u00ed bydlen\u00ed, aby \u201eunikli Trumpovu re\u017eimu\u201c, jen aby se v zoufalstv\u00ed vr\u00e1tili pot\u00e9, co se setkaj\u00ed s bezprecedentn\u00edmi n\u00e1klady na bydlen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve Spojen\u00e9m kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed je bydlen\u00ed pro osoby se st\u0159edn\u00edmi p\u0159\u00edjmy vz\u00e1cn\u00e9, a to i pro ty, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou ochotni si byt pronajmout. V Austr\u00e1lii se st\u0159edn\u00ed cena domu pohybuje kolem 700 000 dolar\u016f (ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s 415 000 dolary v USA). Tomuto trendu se nelze vyhnout, pokud nechcete \u017e\u00edt v rozvojov\u00e9 zemi. A ironicky, tito lid\u00e9 nejsou zrovna nad\u0161en\u00ed z toho, \u017ee se do jejich \u010dtvrt\u00ed st\u011bhuj\u00ed lid\u00e9 ze Z\u00e1padu.<\/span><\/p>\n

K ji\u017e tak infla\u010dn\u00edm podm\u00ednk\u00e1m pro kupuj\u00edc\u00ed dom\u016f se p\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 masivn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edliv neleg\u00e1ln\u00edch imigrant\u016f na Z\u00e1pad v posledn\u00edm desetilet\u00ed, kter\u00fd vy\u010derpal trh s n\u00e1jmy a je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce zv\u00fd\u0161il ceny. Deportace by mohly tlak pon\u011bkud zm\u00edrnit, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 to bude p\u016fsobit jako katalyz\u00e1tor, kter\u00fd urychl\u00ed pokles hodnoty nemovitost\u00ed. Majitel\u00e9 dom\u016f mohou o\u010dek\u00e1vat zna\u010dnou ztr\u00e1tu vlastn\u00edho kapit\u00e1lu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato bolest je nakonec nezbytn\u00e1; n\u011bco mus\u00ed ustoupit. Mus\u00ed doj\u00edt k oddlu\u017een\u00ed a ekonomika mus\u00ed spolknout sv\u016fj l\u00e9k (defla\u010dn\u00ed ud\u00e1lost). V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b se trh s n\u00e1kupem po letech poklesu stabilizoval, ale st\u00e1le m\u00e1me p\u0159ed sebou dlouhou cestu, ne\u017e se nab\u00eddka a popt\u00e1vka vyrovnaj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je pochybn\u00e9, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky, kter\u00e9 jsou zcela zalo\u017eeny na keynesi\u00e1nsk\u00e9m intervencionismu, dovol\u00ed, aby tento proces pokra\u010doval bez intervence. Nakonec zas\u00e1hnou dal\u0161\u00edmi ekonomick\u00fdmi stimula\u010dn\u00edmi opat\u0159en\u00edmi, co\u017e n\u00e1sledn\u011b povede k dal\u0161\u00edmu n\u00e1r\u016fstu cen zlata a st\u0159\u00edbra. Prozat\u00edm je moudr\u00e9, aby si lid\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed si cht\u011bj\u00ed koupit nemovitost (nebo ochr\u00e1nit sv\u00e9 \u00faspory), pronaj\u00edmali nemovitost, dokud tento proces nebude dokon\u010den, a mezit\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b investovali do drah\u00fdch kov\u016f jako zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Majitel\u00e9 dom\u016f by tak\u00e9 m\u011bli zv\u00e1\u017eit investov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti sv\u00fdch \u00faspor do drah\u00fdch kov\u016f, aby vyrovnali ztr\u00e1ty vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z propadu hodnot nemovitost\u00ed. Sou\u010dasn\u00fd stav je zral\u00fd na zem\u011bt\u0159esen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n

Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Snad nejdiskutovan\u011bj\u0161\u00edm ekonomick\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem sou\u010dasnosti je obava, \u017ee drtiv\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina lid\u00ed si ji\u017e nebude moci…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":106718,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[632,2245,371,693],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106717"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=106717"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106717\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/106718"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=106717"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=106717"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=106717"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}