{"id":10671,"date":"2022-05-17T01:02:06","date_gmt":"2022-05-16T23:02:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=10671"},"modified":"2022-05-16T17:28:00","modified_gmt":"2022-05-16T15:28:00","slug":"jiri-paroubek-jake-jsou-skutecne-cile-ruska-na-ukrajine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/05\/17\/jiri-paroubek-jake-jsou-skutecne-cile-ruska-na-ukrajine\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: Jak\u00e9 jsou skute\u010dn\u00e9 c\u00edle Ruska na Ukrajin\u011b?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
Gener\u00e1ln\u00ed tajemn\u00edk NATO Stoltenberg vymezil – pon\u011bkud o sv\u00e9 \u00fajm\u011b – c\u00edle Ruska na Ukrajin\u011b v obsazen\u00ed Kyjeva a Charkova. Tedy dvou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch ukrajinsk\u00fdch m\u011bst.<\/strong><\/div>\n
\nA samoz\u0159ejm\u011b vyj\u00e1d\u0159il sp\u00ed\u0161e propagandisticky n\u00e1zor, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da dos\u00e1hla velk\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, kdy\u017e tomuto obsazen\u00ed dvou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch m\u011bst Rus\u016fm neumo\u017enila.<\/div>\n
\n

V\u00a0prvn\u00edch dnech vojensk\u00e9 operace na Ukrajin\u011b mohlo Rusko snad o\u010dek\u00e1vat st\u00e1tn\u00ed p\u0159evrat v\u00a0Kyjev\u011b. Jen nebylo jasn\u00e9, kdo by jej mohl prov\u00e9st.<\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da zbaven\u00e1 b\u00fdval\u00fdch k\u00e1dr\u016f a \u0161kolen\u00e1 Ameri\u010dany, Brity a dal\u0161\u00edmi instruktory ze Z\u00e1padu, to ur\u010dit\u011b nemohla b\u00fdt. A\u0165 si o V. Putinovi \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, kdo chce, co chce, fantasta jist\u011b nen\u00ed. Od prvn\u00edho dne muselo b\u00fdt jasn\u00e9, \u017ee Rusko nehodl\u00e1 vstupovat do z\u00e1padn\u00edch region\u016f Ukrajiny u\u017e tak\u00e9 proto, \u017ee pod\u00edl rusk\u00e9ho obyvatelstva v\u00a0t\u011bchto oblastech je mal\u00fd \u010di dokonce minim\u00e1ln\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed Kyjeva bylo tedy sp\u00ed\u0161e taktick\u00fdm c\u00edlem, kdy\u017e m\u011bsto nebylo masivn\u011b bombardov\u00e1no a ost\u0159elov\u00e1no. Z\u00a0m\u011bsta byl v\u00a0z\u00e1sad\u011b voln\u00fd v\u00fdjezd pro obyvatele, kte\u0159\u00ed se cht\u011bli evakuovat sm\u011brem na z\u00e1pad.<\/p>\n

Je tedy ot\u00e1zka, zda se c\u00edle Rus\u016f na Ukrajin\u011b v\u016fbec zm\u011bnily \u010di zda byly od za\u010d\u00e1tku zhruba stejn\u00e9. Rusov\u00e9 po zah\u00e1jen\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 operace rychle obsadili oblasti na jihu i v\u00fdchod\u011b Ukrajiny a nyn\u00ed postupuj\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0oblasti Donbasu, pomalu d\u00e1l.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0na\u0161ich m\u00e9di\u00edch jsou zpr\u00e1vy o skute\u010dn\u00e9m pr\u016fb\u011bhu boj\u016f na Donbasu velice kus\u00e9 a \u0159ekn\u011bme sp\u00ed\u0161e propagandistick\u00e9ho charakteru, postr\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed fakticitu.<\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee t\u00edm z\u00e1kladn\u00edm vojensk\u00fdm c\u00edlem Rus\u016f je, z\u00edskat kontrolu nad ji\u017en\u00edmi a v\u00fdchodn\u00edmi regiony Ukrajiny, s\u00a0p\u0159evahou rusk\u00e9ho nebo Rusku naklon\u011bn\u00e9ho obyvatelstva.<\/p>\n

Zaj\u00edmav\u00fd je v\u00a0t\u00e9to souvislosti pohled na mapu Ukrajiny, ve kter\u00e9 jsou prom\u00edtnuty volebn\u00ed v\u00fdsledky z\u00a0druh\u00e9ho kola prezidentsk\u00fdch voleb v\u00a0roce 2005, v\u00a0nich\u017e vyhr\u00e1l s\u00a052% Ju\u0161\u010denko a na druh\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b skon\u010dil s\u00a044,2% „prorusk\u00fd“ Janukovi\u010d.<\/p>\n

Ju\u0161\u010denko byl prezidentem v\u00a0letech 2006 \u2013 2010. Janukovi\u010d nastoupil po vyhran\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch v\u00a0roce 2010 a nedokon\u010dil sv\u016fj mand\u00e1t v\u00a0d\u016fsledku st\u00e1tn\u00edho p\u0159evratu v\u00a0Kyjev\u011b, tzv. Majdanu.<\/p>\n

Janukovi\u010d ve druh\u00e9m kole prezidentsk\u00fdch voleb v\u00a0roce 2005 z\u00edskal ve dvou oblastech \u2013 Luhansku a Don\u011bcku \u2013 p\u0159es 90% hlas\u016f voli\u010d\u016f. Na Krymu p\u0159es 80%. V\u00a0Charkovsk\u00e9 oblasti a v\u00a0Z\u00e1poro\u017esk\u00e9 oblasti to bylo p\u0159es 70%.V Nikolajevsk\u00e9 oblasti, Od\u011bsk\u00e9 a Dn\u011bpropetrovsk\u00e9 p\u0159es 60% a nejslab\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdsledek m\u011bl v\u00a0Chersonsk\u00e9 oblasti (52,3%).<\/p>\n

Naopak Ju\u0161\u010denko m\u011bl nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed volebn\u00ed v\u00fdsledky na z\u00e1pad\u011b zem\u011b, a to p\u0159es 90% hlas\u016f (s v\u00fdjimkou Zakarpat\u00ed s\u00a055%). Na st\u0159edn\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b to bylo od 60% v\u00a0Poltav\u011b a\u017e po t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 77% v\u00a0Rovensk\u00e9 oblasti. Nejslab\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdsledek m\u011bl v\u00a0Kirovohradsk\u00e9 oblasti s\u00a047%.<\/p>\n

Rusov\u00e9 nejsp\u00ed\u0161e budou cht\u00edt z\u00edskat kontrolu nad t\u011bmito regiony. Jedn\u00e1 se vesm\u011bs o oblasti, kter\u00e9 byly administrativn\u00edm rozhodnut\u00edm Lenina a Stalina v\u00a0roce 1922 p\u0159ipojeny k\u00a0Ukrajinsk\u00e9 sov\u011btsk\u00e9 socialistick\u00e9 republice. V\u00a0t\u011bchto oblastech je soust\u0159ed\u011bn pr\u016fmysl, v\u00fdte\u010dn\u00e1 zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e1 v\u00fdroba, ale tak\u00e9 t\u011b\u017eba surovin. A krom\u011b toho jsou tam v\u0161echny p\u0159\u00edstavy, kter\u00e9 umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed spojen\u00ed Ukrajiny se sv\u011btem po mo\u0159i. Up\u0159\u00edmn\u011b, bez t\u011bchto oblast\u00ed na jihu a v\u00fdchod\u011b Ukrajiny by \u017eivotaschopnost „zbytku“ Ukrajiny byla jen velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e1. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee v\u00a0Don\u011bck\u00e9 oblasti, kde je soust\u0159ed\u011bno j\u00e1dro ukrajinsk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch sil, doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0pomal\u00e9mu, ale jist\u00e9mu postupu Rus\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed v\u00a0bojov\u00fdch operac\u00edch vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm letectva a tak\u00e9 d\u011blost\u0159electva k bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed stanoven\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f. A to p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e nasad\u00ed tanky a p\u011bchotu, tedy tak, aby sn\u00ed\u017eili na co nejp\u0159ijateln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed arm\u00e1dn\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty.<\/p>\n

Pokud jde o Mariupol, zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch n\u011bkolik set p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edk\u016f pluku Azov je uzav\u0159eno v are\u00e1lu, na kter\u00fd \u00fato\u010d\u00ed bez ust\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011b\u017ek\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da. A nebude m\u00edt jinou mo\u017enost ne\u017eli se vzd\u00e1t do zajet\u00ed rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b anebo padnout. Rusov\u00e9 i Ukrajinci ch\u00e1pou symboliku boje v\u00a0Azovstalu. Pokud by nap\u0159. Rusov\u00e9 p\u0159istoupili na v\u00fdm\u011bnu zajatc\u016f z\u00a0\u0159ad Azovsk\u00fdch, bojuj\u00edc\u00edch v\u00a0Mariupolu, pos\u00edlilo by to velmi siln\u011b bojov\u00e9ho ducha ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy. Pokud tato skupina bude zni\u010dena, znamenalo by to siln\u00fd z\u00e1sah do mor\u00e1lky Ukrajinc\u016f. A naopak.<\/p>\n

Pokud se Rus\u016fm poda\u0159\u00ed dokon\u010dit operaci v\u00a0Don\u011bcku, kde jsou siln\u00e1 opevn\u011bn\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy, taktick\u00fdm v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00edm, mohou se rusk\u00e1 vojska p\u0159esunout na jin\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti fronty. Nap\u0159. k\u00a0Charkovu nebo do Mikolajevsk\u00e9 oblasti.<\/p>\n

Rusov\u00e9 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daj\u00ed, \u017ee oblasti s\u00a0p\u0159evahou ruskojazy\u010dn\u00e9ho obyvatelstva nebo s\u00a0velk\u00fdm pod\u00edlem ruskojazy\u010dn\u00e9ho obyvatelstva na jihu a v\u00fdchod\u011b zem\u011b, by snadno akceptovaly i p\u0159ipojen\u00ed k\u00a0Rusku.<\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee rusk\u00e9 politick\u00e9 elity a arm\u00e1dn\u00ed veden\u00ed budou pokra\u010dovat ve v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch operac\u00edch, aby obsadily co nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st \u00fazem\u00ed ji\u017en\u00edch a v\u00fdchodn\u00edch region\u016f Ukrajiny.<\/p>\n

Veden\u00ed Ruska spol\u00e9h\u00e1 na to, \u017ee sankce, se kter\u00fdmi p\u0159i\u0161el Z\u00e1pad, jsou dvouse\u010dn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Je sice nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9, \u017ee se do Ruska nep\u0159iv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed nap\u0159. z\u00a0Francie skv\u011bl\u00e1 v\u00edna \u010di ko\u0148aky anebo galanterie \u010di s\u00fdry. Z\u00a0N\u011bmecka automobily Volkswagen \u010di pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 technologie atd., ale obchodn\u00ed bilance Ruska na stran\u011b importu se t\u00edm v\u00fdrazn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed a rusk\u00fd export zejm\u00e9na strategick\u00fdch surovin (plyn, ropa, p\u0161enice) i d\u00edky r\u016fstu sv\u011btov\u00fdch cen, ke kter\u00e9mu p\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1 tak\u00e9 tento v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd konflikt, z\u016fstane minim\u00e1ln\u011b v\u00a0solidn\u00ed poloze. Prost\u011b obchodn\u00ed bilance Ruska bude vysoce aktivn\u00ed i v\u00a0tomto roce. A pokud se Z\u00e1pad bude cht\u00edt zbavovat dod\u00e1vek rusk\u00e9 ropy a zemn\u00edho plynu, bude tak \u010dinit postupn\u011b a Rusko si mezit\u00edm najde jin\u00e1 odbyti\u0161t\u011b v\u00a0\u010c\u00edn\u011b, v\u00a0Indii, v\u00a0zem\u00edch Latinsk\u00e9 Ameriky a Afriky. Zejm\u00e9na v\u00fdvoz p\u0161enice bude vysloven\u011b strategickou z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed.<\/p>\n

P\u0159i p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9m omezen\u00e9m v\u00fdvozu ukrajinsk\u00e9 p\u0161enice to budou Rusov\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed budou dod\u00e1vat sv\u00e9 obil\u00ed do zem\u00ed, kde jej pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed, tedy zejm\u00e9na do zem\u00ed Afriky i Asie. A lze tak\u00e9 o\u010dek\u00e1vat, vzhledem k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee Indie pr\u00e1v\u011b vyhl\u00e1sila embargo na v\u00fdvoz sv\u00e9 p\u0161enice, rychl\u00fd r\u016fst cen p\u0161enice na sv\u011btov\u00fdch komoditn\u00edch trz\u00edch.<\/p>\n

Rusko v\u00a0tomto roce p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 rekordn\u00ed sklize\u0148 p\u0161enice, co\u017e mu umo\u017en\u00ed uspokojit jak dom\u00e1c\u00ed popt\u00e1vku, tak velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b i zv\u00fd\u0161it export.<\/p>\n

Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, \u017ee rusk\u00e9 veden\u00ed vs\u00e1z\u00ed na nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fd dopad sankc\u00ed Z\u00e1padu tak\u00e9 na \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 obyvatel z\u00e1padn\u00edch zem\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky.<\/p>\n

R\u016fst cen energi\u00ed, pohonn\u00fdch hmot, potravin m\u00e1 p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b vysokou dynamiku. A r\u016fst inflace se zdaleka nemus\u00ed omezit hranic\u00ed 20%. To by p\u0159i minim\u00e1ln\u00edm r\u016fstu nomin\u00e1ln\u00edch mezd u n\u00e1s znamenalo v\u00fdznamn\u00fd pokles \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b v\u00a0na\u0161\u00ed zemi o 15 \u2013 20%. A tento pokles bude velmi nerovnom\u011brn\u011b rozvr\u017een mezi jednotliv\u00e9 vrstvy obyvatelstva. Ob\u00e1v\u00e1m se, \u017ee ti chud\u00ed budou je\u0161t\u011b chud\u0161\u00ed a st\u0159edn\u00ed vrstvy zchudnou.<\/p>\n

Tak, jak sleduji zejm\u00e9na ve\u0159ejnopr\u00e1vn\u00ed televizi, objevuj\u00ed se v\u00a0n\u00ed nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00favahy „odborn\u00edk\u016f“ i odborn\u00edk\u016f o tom, jak\u00e9 jsou vlastn\u011b c\u00edle rusk\u00e9 operace na Ukrajin\u011b a co v\u0161echno vlastn\u011b u\u017e Rusov\u00e9 prohr\u00e1li. M\u00e1lokdo z\u00a0koment\u00e1tor\u016f, jen\u017e je vyu\u017eit \u010ceskou televiz\u00ed, dok\u00e1\u017ee ve sv\u00fdch vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00edch odd\u011blit fakticitu od protirusk\u00e9 propagandy.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b proti sob\u011b bojuj\u00ed dv\u011b arm\u00e1dy, kter\u00e9 jsou velmi siln\u011b motivovan\u00e9 a dob\u0159e p\u0159ipraven\u00e9 k\u00a0boji.<\/p>\n

Zaj\u00edmavost\u00ed t\u00e9to v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 operace je, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da m\u00e1 p\u0159evahu v po\u010dtu bojovn\u00edk\u016f nad rusk\u00fdmi interventy. Ti tento nedostatek bojovn\u00edk\u016f nahrazuj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed palebnou silou. A jsou trp\u011bliv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Koment\u00e1to\u0159i na Z\u00e1pad\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1vali, \u017ee prezident Putin vyhl\u00e1s\u00ed 9.5. v\u00e1lku Ukrajin\u011b, co\u017e by mu umo\u017enilo prov\u00e9st v\u0161eobecnou mobilizaci. To by samoz\u0159ejm\u011b na ukrajinsk\u00e1 boji\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ivedlo statis\u00edce nov\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch bojovn\u00edk\u016f. Putin se zachoval jinak, podle sv\u00e9ho.<\/p>\n

Stejn\u011b tak se o\u010dek\u00e1valo, \u017ee Putin p\u0159istoup\u00ed k\u00a0protisankc\u00edm, nap\u0159. zastaven\u00edm dod\u00e1vek zemn\u00edho plynu anebo jin\u00e9 komodity nezbytn\u00e9 pro evropsk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl. Dod\u00e1vky plynu a ropy z\u00a0Ruska na Z\u00e1pad se nezastavily ani v\u00a0dob\u00e1ch nejtu\u017e\u0161\u00ed studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. A V. Putin v tom chce pokra\u010dovat. Nechce vyklidit prostor konkurenci. Je ot\u00e1zkou, jak\u00e9 jsou v\u016fbec dodavatelsk\u00e9 mo\u017enosti potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch konkurent\u016f, pokud jde o dod\u00e1vky zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho plynu (LNG). V\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Al\u017e\u00edrska jsou tyto mo\u017enosti limitovan\u00e9, v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Kataru jsou uzav\u0159eny dlouhodob\u00e9 kontrakty o dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch plynu p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm se zem\u011bmi Asie. A v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f razantn\u00ed nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed t\u011b\u017eby plynu z\u00a0b\u0159idlic nebude tak snadn\u00e9 a rychl\u00e9.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gener\u00e1ln\u00ed tajemn\u00edk NATO Stoltenberg vymezil – pon\u011bkud o sv\u00e9 \u00fajm\u011b – c\u00edle Ruska na Ukrajin\u011b…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":9993,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,29,22,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10671"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10671"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10671\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9993"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10671"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10671"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10671"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}