{"id":106611,"date":"2026-05-15T00:26:39","date_gmt":"2026-05-14T22:26:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=106611"},"modified":"2026-05-14T12:30:20","modified_gmt":"2026-05-14T10:30:20","slug":"andrew-korybko-jizni-korea-zustane-klicovou-soucasti-americkych-planu-na-zadrzeni-ciny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/15\/andrew-korybko-jizni-korea-zustane-klicovou-soucasti-americkych-planu-na-zadrzeni-ciny\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea z\u016fstane kl\u00ed\u010dovou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed americk\u00fdch pl\u00e1n\u016f na zadr\u017een\u00ed \u010c\u00edny"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u010c\u00ednsko-rusk\u00e1 dohoda by se mohla vyvinout v de facto alianci, pokud se Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea a Japonsko p\u0159ipoj\u00ed k AUKUS+, co\u017e je de facto americk\u00e9 \u201easijsk\u00e9 NATO\u201c, ale to by mohlo Indii vyd\u011bsit a p\u0159im\u011bt ji k de facto alianci s USA, aby vyv\u00e1\u017eila vn\u00edman\u00fd \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd vliv na Rusko, a t\u00edm d\u00e1le destabilizovala Eurasii.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Trumpovo setk\u00e1n\u00ed se Si \u0164in-pchingem\u00a0<\/span>vyvolalo nad\u011bje\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, \u017ee by mohlo b\u00fdt dosa\u017eeno pokroku v \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi \u010c\u00ednou a USA, ale mnoho z t\u011bchto pozorovatel\u016f zme\u0161kalo sch\u016fzku\u00a0<\/span>ministr\u016f\u00a0<\/a><\/span>obrany USA a Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, kter\u00e1 se konala za\u010d\u00e1tkem t\u00fddne ve Washingtonu, D.C., co\u017e tyto nad\u011bje zpochyb\u0148uje.\u00a0\u010c\u00e1st programu\u00a0<\/a>se t\u00fdkala\u00a0dohody\u00a0<\/a>, kter\u00e1 byla uzav\u0159ena b\u011bhem Trumpovy lo\u0148sk\u00e9 n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvy, \u017ee USA pomohou Ju\u017en\u00e9 Koreji s v\u00fdstavbou jadern\u00e9 ponorky, co\u017e\u00a0zde bylo hodnoceno\u00a0<\/a>jako usnad\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed jej\u00ed integraci do AUKUS+.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna\u00a0<\/span>ost\u0159e protestovala\u00a0<\/span><\/a>proti paktu AUKUS z roku 2021, kter\u00fdm se Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed a USA dohodly na pomoci Austr\u00e1lii s v\u00fdvojem flotily jadern\u00fdch ponorek. Zat\u00edmco reakce \u010c\u00edny na podobnou dohodu mezi Republik\u00e1nskou republikou a USA v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce byla\u00a0<\/span>relativn\u011b m\u00edrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>kv\u016fli\u00a0<\/span>ned\u00e1vno zlep\u0161en\u00fdm bilater\u00e1ln\u00edm vztah\u016fm\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, jej\u00ed hodnocen\u00ed hrozby je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b je\u0161t\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, proto\u017ee Republik\u00e1nsk\u00e1 republika je \u010c\u00edn\u011b mnohem bl\u00ed\u017ee ne\u017e Austr\u00e1lie. To tak\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuje prohlubov\u00e1n\u00ed vojensko-strategick\u00e9ho vlivu USA, kter\u00fd by mohl b\u00fdt zneu\u017eit k \u00fa\u010del\u016fm omezov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea by se nejen pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b integrovala do americk\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na AUKUS, kter\u00e1 neform\u00e1ln\u011b zahrnuje\u00a0<\/span>Japonsko, Filip\u00edny\u00a0<\/span><\/a>a dokonce i Tchaj-wan, ale \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd rival Japonsko ji\u017e\u00a0<\/span>nazna\u010dil z\u00e1jem\u00a0<\/span><\/a>o uzav\u0159en\u00ed vlastn\u00ed dohody s USA o jadern\u00fdch ponork\u00e1ch. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Ju\u017en\u00e1 Korea a\u00a0<\/span>Japonsko\u00a0<\/span><\/a>jsou z d\u016fvod\u016f, kter\u00e9 tato anal\u00fdza nedok\u00e1\u017ee vysv\u011btlit, \u201ezkratkou\u201c, je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee se USA rozhodnou dos\u00e1hnout paraleln\u00ed dohody s Japonskem, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by se zes\u00edlilo vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed hrozby AUKUS+ ze strany \u010c\u00edny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Aby toho nebylo m\u00e1lo, spolupr\u00e1ce USA s Ju\u017enou Koreou (a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b brzy i s Japonskem) v oblasti jadern\u00fdch ponorek by se\u00a0<\/span>snadno mohla vyvinout ve spolupr\u00e1ci v oblasti jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, co\u017e je v\u011brohodn\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 pot\u00e9, co vypr\u0161en\u00ed platnosti nov\u00e9 dohody START\u00a0<\/span>dle p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed Trumpa 2.0\u00a0<\/span><\/a>zv\u00fd\u0161ilo riziko\u00a0<\/span>glob\u00e1ln\u00edch z\u00e1vod\u016f v jadern\u00e9m zbrojen\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span>Ju\u017en\u00e1 Korea\u00a0<\/span><\/a>i\u00a0<\/span>Japonsko\u00a0<\/span><\/a>maj\u00ed jak jadernou latenci, neboli schopnost vyr\u00e1b\u011bt jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, pokud bude u\u010din\u011bno rozhodnut\u00ed, co\u017e podporuje\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159es 75 %\u00a0<\/span><\/a>Jihokorejc\u016f, ale\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159es 60 %\u00a0<\/span><\/a>Japonc\u016f je proti.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00e1m\u011bstek ministra v\u00e1lky pro politiku Elbridge Colby\u00a0<\/span>d\u0159\u00edve prohl\u00e1sil\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, \u017ee USA budou \u201ed\u016frazn\u011b oponovat\u201c v\u00fdvoji jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed ve v\u00edce evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b za \u00fa\u010delem kontroly eskalace v\u016f\u010di Rusku, tak\u017ee stejn\u00fd v\u00fdpo\u010det v\u016f\u010di \u010c\u00edn\u011b by mohl b\u00fdt pou\u017eit i v\u016f\u010di v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii. Tyto v\u00fdpo\u010dty se v\u0161ak mohou v\u017edy zm\u011bnit a USA by mohly takov\u00e9 programy tajn\u011b podporovat, nebo alespo\u0148 p\u0159imhou\u0159it o\u010di p\u0159ed Franci\u00ed a\/nebo Spojen\u00fdm kr\u00e1lovstv\u00edm, kter\u00e9 jim pom\u00e1haj\u00ed. \u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 proto d\u016fvod k obav\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee USA budou sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 s jadern\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi Ju\u017en\u00e9 Koreje a\/nebo Japonska pou\u017e\u00edvat jako Damokl\u016fv me\u010d proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b ve snaze ji odradit od recipro\u010dn\u00ed eskalace \u010d\u00ednsko-americk\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed uprost\u0159ed nevyhnuteln\u00e9 konsolidace AUKUS+, de facto \u201easijsk\u00e9ho NATO\u201c. Vzhledem k tomu, jak USA budou i v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed dohody nad\u00e1le \u010c\u00ednu omezovat, by se \u010c\u00edna mohla st\u00e1t vn\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed k\u00a0<\/span>n\u00e1vrh\u016fm\u00a0<\/a><\/span>rusk\u00fdch\u00a0<\/span><\/a>zast\u00e1nc\u016f tvrd\u00e9 linie\u00a0<\/a>na komplexn\u00ed prohlouben\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce, a t\u00edm vytvo\u0159it de facto alianci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kompromisem je, \u017ee Indie by pak mohla b\u00fdt vyd\u011b\u0161en\u00e1 k upevn\u011bn\u00ed sv\u00fdch \u00fazk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch vazeb s USA ze strachu, \u017ee se \u010c\u00edna stane hlavn\u00edm partnerem Ruska a n\u00e1sledn\u011b ji donut\u00ed p\u0159eru\u0161it dod\u00e1vky zbran\u00ed a n\u00e1hradn\u00edch d\u00edl\u016f Indii, co\u017e by \u010c\u00edn\u011b umo\u017enilo vyd\u00edrat Indii uprost\u0159ed jejich hrani\u010dn\u00edch spor\u016f. Tato odvetn\u00e1 alian\u010dn\u00ed sekvence katalyzovan\u00e1 AUKUS+ by mohla d\u00e1le destabilizovat Eurasii, usnadnit americk\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny na rozd\u011bl a panuj a u\u010dinit\u00a0<\/span>\u010d\u00ednsko-americkou bimultipolaritu\u00a0<\/span><\/a>nevyhnutelnou, ale tak\u00e9 ji nelze vylou\u010dit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u010c\u00ednsko-rusk\u00e1 dohoda by se mohla vyvinout v de facto alianci, pokud se Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":106612,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,30,2181,1189,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106611"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=106611"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106611\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/106612"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=106611"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=106611"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=106611"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}