{"id":106581,"date":"2026-05-15T00:15:59","date_gmt":"2026-05-14T22:15:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=106581"},"modified":"2026-05-14T10:47:37","modified_gmt":"2026-05-14T08:47:37","slug":"predpoved-kolaps-nato-a-jaderna-valka","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/15\/predpoved-kolaps-nato-a-jaderna-valka\/","title":{"rendered":"P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f: Kolaps NATO a jadern\u00e1 v\u00e1lka"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">NATO bylo v\u017edy zam\u00fd\u0161leno jako do\u010dasn\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 aliance, sjednocen\u00e1 spole\u010dn\u00fdm nep\u0159\u00edtelem a spole\u010dnou hrozbou b\u011bhem studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Kdy\u017e tato hrozba s koncem studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky a n\u00e1sledn\u011b s rozpadem Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu zmizela, \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed ot\u00e1zkou 90. let 20. stolet\u00ed bylo: Jak\u00fd bude nov\u00fd \u00fa\u010del NATO? Odpov\u011bd\u00ed na tuto ot\u00e1zku bylo usilovat o unipolaritu neboli kolektivn\u00ed hegemonii v \u00e9\u0159e po studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lce prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm expanzionismu NATO a vojensk\u00e9ho intervencionismu (\u201emimo oblast p\u016fsobnosti, nebo mimo \u010dinnost\u201c).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Rusko dostalo implicitn\u011b ultim\u00e1tum: bu\u010f bude poslu\u0161n\u00fdm studentem civilizace, nebo se stane anticiviliza\u010dn\u00ed silou. Rusko mohlo p\u0159ijmout hegemonickou roli NATO jako \u201es\u00edly dobra\u201c, nebo se postavit na odpor \u2013 na\u010de\u017e by se NATO vr\u00e1tilo ke sv\u00e9 d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed roli konfrontace s Ruskem. V\u00e1lku v roce 2014 spustila zm\u011bna re\u017eimu na Ukrajin\u011b podporovan\u00e1 NATO \u2013 jej\u00edm\u017e c\u00edlem bylo p\u0159em\u011bnit zemi z rusk\u00e9ho partnera na st\u00e1t v frontov\u00e9 linii proti Rusku. NATO se za\u010dalo vracet ke sv\u00e9 d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed roli konfrontace s Ruskem, ale k tomu do\u0161lo v dob\u011b, kdy hegemonick\u00e1 \u00e9ra ji\u017e skon\u010dila.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Nyn\u00ed, kdy\u017e byla d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed kolektivn\u00ed hegemonie vyv\u00e1\u017eena a vznikl multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed sv\u011bt, NATO op\u011bt ztratilo sv\u016fj \u00fa\u010del a je na pokraji kolapsu. Evrop\u0161t\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i cht\u011bj\u00ed obnovit p\u016fvodn\u00ed \u00fa\u010del NATO: omezit Rusko. To sel\u017ee, proto\u017ee je zalo\u017eeno na klamn\u00e9m narativu, \u017ee Rusko chce obnovit Sov\u011btsk\u00fd svaz, sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e jen \u010delit expanzionismu a vojensk\u00e9mu intervencionismu NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">USA se v\u0161ak k p\u016fvodn\u00edmu \u00fa\u010delu NATO nevr\u00e1t\u00ed, proto\u017ee se glob\u00e1ln\u00ed rovnov\u00e1ha sil posunula, a proto se nep\u0159idaj\u00ed k fale\u0161n\u00fdm narativ\u016fm evropsk\u00fdch l\u00eddr\u016f. USA jsou na relativn\u00edm \u00fapadku a nemohou si udr\u017eet sou\u010dasnou strategickou dominanci v Evrop\u011b, na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii a na z\u00e1padn\u00ed polokouli. USA nemohou b\u00fdt v multipol\u00e1rn\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b v\u0161ude najednou a p\u0159esunou svou pozornost na z\u00e1padn\u00ed polokouli a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii. Americk\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edtomnost v Evrop\u011b spot\u0159ebov\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mnoho zdroj\u016f a tla\u010d\u00ed Rusko bl\u00ed\u017ee k \u010c\u00edn\u011b \u2013 jeho hlavn\u00edmu protivn\u00edkovi. USA jsou v\u0161ak docela ochotny outsourcovat konflikt s Ruskem na Evropany. Evropa z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 poslu\u0161n\u00e1 a Rusko je oslabeno.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Kdyby Evropa m\u011bla racion\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u016fdce, p\u0159izp\u016fsobila by se nov\u00e9 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed rovnov\u00e1ze sil, ukon\u010dila by tuto v\u00e1lku, uzav\u0159ela m\u00edr s Ruskem, vytvo\u0159ila by spole\u010dnou panevropskou bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architekturu \u2013 o 35 let pozd\u011bji \u2013 kter\u00e1 by tak\u00e9 zachr\u00e1nila Ukrajinu t\u00edm, \u017ee by ji odstranila z frontov\u00e9 linie op\u011bt rozd\u011blen\u00e9 Evropy, a diverzifikovala by sv\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 vztahy, aby se vyhnula p\u0159\u00edli\u0161n\u00e9mu spol\u00e9h\u00e1n\u00ed se na jakoukoli jednotlivou zahrani\u010dn\u00ed mocnost. Evropa v\u0161ak \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 racion\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u016fdce nem\u00e1 a dokonce i argument, \u017ee zbran\u011b nejsou cestou k m\u00edru nebo \u017ee diplomacie je nezbytn\u00e1, je hanoben a cenzurov\u00e1n jako \u201eprorusk\u00e1\u201c zrada. Evropsk\u00e1 politick\u00e1 t\u0159\u00edda je i nad\u00e1le odd\u00e1na rusofobn\u00edm narativ\u016fm a politik\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 zhor\u0161uj\u00ed konfrontaci a prodlu\u017euj\u00ed konflikt.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pr\u016fb\u011bh ud\u00e1lost\u00ed se nyn\u00ed st\u00e1v\u00e1 st\u00e1le jasn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm: NATO se bude d\u00e1le rozpadat a Evropan\u00e9 to budou kompenzovat dal\u0161\u00ed eskalac\u00ed v\u00e1lky proti Rusku. To se d\u011bje v dob\u011b, kdy se Rusko zoufale sna\u017e\u00ed obnovit sv\u016fj odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinek odvetn\u00fdmi opat\u0159en\u00edmi proti Evrop\u011b \u2013 s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed N\u011bmecku \u2013 zat\u00edmco americk\u00fd z\u00e1vazek v\u016f\u010di Evrop\u011b a jej\u00ed ochrana sl\u00e1bnou. P\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fdm d\u016fsledkem je, \u017ee evrop\u0161t\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i nakonec vyprovokuj\u00ed silnou ruskou reakci, kter\u00e1 by se mohla rychle vyhrotit v doufejme omezen\u00fd jadern\u00fd \u00fader.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/glenndiesen.substack.com\/p\/a-prediction-natos-collapse-of-nuclear\"><span dir=\"auto\">Glenn Diesen<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>NATO bylo v\u017edy zam\u00fd\u0161leno jako do\u010dasn\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 aliance, sjednocen\u00e1 spole\u010dn\u00fdm nep\u0159\u00edtelem a spole\u010dnou hrozbou b\u011bhem&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":106582,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1652,39,1496],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106581"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=106581"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106581\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/106582"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=106581"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=106581"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=106581"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}