{"id":106574,"date":"2026-05-15T00:12:45","date_gmt":"2026-05-14T22:12:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=106574"},"modified":"2026-05-14T10:35:30","modified_gmt":"2026-05-14T08:35:30","slug":"usa-prohravaji-varuje-john-mearsheimer-pred-geopolitickou-katastrofou-na-blizkem-vychode","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/15\/usa-prohravaji-varuje-john-mearsheimer-pred-geopolitickou-katastrofou-na-blizkem-vychode\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201eUSA prohr\u00e1vaj\u00ed,\u201c varuje John Mearsheimer p\u0159ed geopolitickou katastrofou na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V explozivn\u00edm rozhovoru analyzuje renomovan\u00fd americk\u00fd geostrat\u00e9g John Mearsheimer dramatickou eskalaci mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem, Izraelem a Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty \u2013 a vykresluje obraz, kter\u00fd by jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed mohl b\u00fdt bez\u00fat\u011b\u0161n\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Zat\u00edmco Washington a Tel Aviv ve\u0159ejn\u011b hovo\u0159\u00ed o \u201ev\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed\u201c, Mearsheimer bez obalu prohla\u0161uje: USA a Izrael v\u00e1lku prohr\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 \u201esituaci pod kontrolou\u201c a NATO by se v d\u016fsledku krize mohlo fakticky zhroutit. Rozhovor vykresluje obraz sv\u011btov\u00e9ho \u0159\u00e1du, kter\u00fd se sou\u010dasn\u011b rozpad\u00e1 na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, v Evrop\u011b a na glob\u00e1ln\u00edch energetick\u00fdch trz\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"\u00cdr\u00e1n zah\u00e1jil masivn\u00ed \u00fatok na Tel Aviv \u2013 V Izraeli vypukl chaos | John Mearsheimer\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Uv-whc8AUPY?feature=oembed\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Podle Mearsheimera vojensk\u00fd v\u00fdvoj nazna\u010duje, \u017ee izraelsk\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 syst\u00e9my jsou pod obrovsk\u00fdm tlakem. Zpr\u00e1vy uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed, \u017ee zhruba 80 procent \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch raket zasahuje sv\u00e9 c\u00edle, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e neexistuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 d\u016fkazy o tom, \u017ee by Teher\u00e1nu doch\u00e1zely z\u00e1soby. Tato situace st\u00e1le v\u00edce p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 lo\u0148skou v\u00e1lku, kdy s\u00e1m Izrael byl na pokraji vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00e9ho raketov\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Strategick\u00e1 situace kolem Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kritick\u00e1. Mearsheimer tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n nyn\u00ed kontroluje toto kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00e9 \u00fazk\u00e9 hrdlo a nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd racion\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fvod se ho vzd\u00e1t. Pokud by USA a Izrael vyu\u017eily p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed k p\u0159ezbrojen\u00ed a pozd\u011bji znovu ude\u0159ily, byla by to z pohledu \u00cdr\u00e1nu strategick\u00e1 chyba. Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto Mearsheimer nev\u011b\u0159\u00ed v jednoduchou deeskalaci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">J\u00e1drem jeho anal\u00fdzy je Donald Trump. Mearsheimer o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee se Trump pokus\u00ed prezentovat dvoud\u00edln\u00fd narativ: Zaprv\u00e9 prohl\u00e1s\u00ed \u201ev\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed\u201c nebo prohl\u00e1s\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed je na spadnut\u00ed. Zadruh\u00e9 sou\u010dasn\u011b ozn\u00e1m\u00ed konec p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho zapojen\u00ed do v\u00e1lky. Mearsheimer v\u0161ak pr\u00e1v\u011b tento v\u00edt\u011bzn\u00fd narativ pova\u017euje za nep\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159ed za\u010d\u00e1tkem v\u00e1lky Washington a Tel Aviv formulovaly p\u011bt hlavn\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f: zm\u011bnu re\u017eimu v \u00cdr\u00e1nu, ukon\u010den\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho programu, zni\u010den\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho raketov\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu, ukon\u010den\u00ed podpory Ham\u00e1su, Hizball\u00e1hu a H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f a celkov\u00e9 oslaben\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu. Podle Mearsheimera nebyl \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd z t\u011bchto c\u00edl\u016f dosa\u017een \u2013 a \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd z nich ani nen\u00ed v bezprost\u0159edn\u00edm okol\u00ed. M\u00edsto toho se americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da nyn\u00ed pokou\u0161\u00ed zp\u011btn\u011b definovat nov\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 c\u00edle, jako je zni\u010den\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho letectva nebo n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva, p\u0159esto\u017ee tyto c\u00edle p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou nehr\u00e1ly prakticky \u017e\u00e1dnou roli.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">B\u011bhem rozhovoru se objevily zpr\u00e1vy o nov\u00fdch \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch raketov\u00fdch \u00fatoc\u00edch na Izrael. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ministerstvo zahrani\u010d\u00ed odm\u00edtlo Trumpovo tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n po\u017e\u00e1dal o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Pro Mearsheimera to byl pr\u00e1v\u011b d\u016fkaz, \u017ee se hrout\u00ed americk\u00fd narativ o v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. Prohl\u00e1sil: \u201eProhr\u00e1v\u00e1me v\u00e1lku.\u201c I kdy\u017e v\u00e1lka je\u0161t\u011b nebyla ofici\u00e1ln\u011b prohran\u00e1, nikdo nedok\u00e1zal v\u011brohodn\u011b vysv\u011btlit, jak USA a Izrael hodlaj\u00ed zvr\u00e1tit v\u00fdvoj situace.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Mearsheimer pova\u017euje mo\u017enost nasazen\u00ed americk\u00fdch pozemn\u00edch vojsk za obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed. V regionu jsou ji\u017e nasazeny jednotky 82. v\u00fdsadkov\u00e9 pluku, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u011bchoty a speci\u00e1ln\u00edch jednotek. Pokud by Washington skute\u010dn\u011b nasadil pozemn\u00ed jednotky na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed, Mearsheimer se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee by to situaci vyhrotilo \u201ez naprosto hrozn\u00e9 na mnohem hor\u0161\u00ed\u201c. \u00cdr\u00e1n ji\u017e jasn\u011b uvedl, \u017ee bude bojovat nejen proti americk\u00fdm jednotk\u00e1m, ale tak\u00e9 za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed na st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, kter\u00e9 USA podporuj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">To by zp\u016fsobilo, \u017ee se konflikt roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed daleko za hranice \u00cdr\u00e1nu a Izraele. P\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm c\u00edlem by mohly b\u00fdt Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie a dal\u0161\u00ed st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 by se zhroutila d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost americk\u00fdch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1ruk. Mearsheimer otev\u0159en\u011b zpochyb\u0148uje, zda jsou USA v\u016fbec je\u0161t\u011b schopny \u00fa\u010dinn\u011b chr\u00e1nit sv\u00e9 spojence.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1rove\u0148 vid\u00ed NATO v existen\u010dn\u00ed krizi. Trump otev\u0159en\u011b hroz\u00ed odchodem USA z aliance pot\u00e9, co evropsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty odm\u00edtly podniknout vojensk\u00e9 kroky proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Podle Mearsheimera se Trump nyn\u00ed sna\u017e\u00ed svalit vinu za ne\u00fasp\u011bchy na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b na Evropu. My\u0161lenku, \u017ee by evropsk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed s\u00edly mohly sehr\u00e1t kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli p\u0159i vojensk\u00e9m otev\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, ozna\u010duje za \u201eneseri\u00f3zn\u00ed argument\u201c. Ani americk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo samo o sob\u011b to nem\u016f\u017ee zaru\u010dit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Mearsheimer jde je\u0161t\u011b d\u00e1l: NATO jako funguj\u00edc\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 aliance je fakticky mrtv\u00e9. Transatlantick\u00e9 vztahy jsou naru\u0161eny a Evropa se mus\u00ed za\u010d\u00edt strategicky distancovat od Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. M\u00edsto toho, aby se Evropan\u00e9 nad\u00e1le spol\u00e9hali na Washington, m\u011bli by zlep\u0161it sv\u00e9 vztahy s \u010c\u00ednou a Ruskem. Rusko pro Evropu hrozbou nep\u0159edstavuje, tvrd\u00ed \u2013 sp\u00ed\u0161e se nebezpe\u010d\u00edm stala z\u00e1vislost na USA sama o sob\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1rove\u0148 varuje p\u0159ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomickou \u0161okovou vlnou. Vysok\u00e9 ceny ropy, naru\u0161en\u00e9 dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce a zni\u010den\u00e1 infrastruktura v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu by mohly spustit glob\u00e1ln\u00ed depresi. Zem\u011b jako Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea ji\u017e nyn\u00ed omezuj\u00ed dod\u00e1vky paliva, Vietnam se pot\u00fdk\u00e1 s nedostatkem dod\u00e1vek a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed je pod tlakem, proto\u017ee jsou naru\u0161eny dod\u00e1vky hnojiv z oblasti Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b nebezpe\u010dnou situaci p\u0159edstavuje skute\u010dnost, \u017ee se neni\u010d\u00ed jen ropn\u00e1 infrastruktura. Po\u0161kozov\u00e1ny jsou tak\u00e9 hlin\u00edk\u00e1rny, ocel\u00e1rny, odsolovac\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00ed ekonomicky d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed v oblasti Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. Ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky by mohly trvat roky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Mearsheimer na z\u00e1v\u011br popisuje glob\u00e1ln\u00ed situaci drsn\u00fdm obrazem: sv\u011bt sm\u011b\u0159uje k ledovci. Trump zjevn\u011b douf\u00e1, \u017ee se sr\u00e1\u017ece vyhne r\u00e9torick\u00fdm prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed a \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00fdm sta\u017een\u00edm vojsk. Podle Mearsheimera je to v\u0161ak extr\u00e9mn\u011b nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9. V\u00e1lka se bude d\u00e1le stup\u0148ovat a USA u\u017e t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nemaj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 sch\u016fdn\u00e9 mo\u017enosti. Pozemn\u00ed invaze by byla katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed a sta\u017een\u00ed vojsk bez masivn\u00edch \u00fastupk\u016f \u00cdr\u00e1nu je prakticky nemo\u017en\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jeho z\u00e1v\u011br je jednozna\u010dn\u00fd: \u00cdr\u00e1n je ve strategicky siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pozici. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a Izrael jsou st\u00e1le v\u00edce uv\u011bzn\u011bny v konfliktu, kter\u00fd nemohou ani jasn\u011b vyhr\u00e1t, ani se mu snadno vyhnout. A to je podle Mearsheimera nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hrozbou pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159\u00e1d v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V explozivn\u00edm rozhovoru analyzuje renomovan\u00fd americk\u00fd geostrat\u00e9g John Mearsheimer dramatickou eskalaci mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem, Izraelem a&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":106575,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1854,2181,1052,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106574"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=106574"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106574\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/106575"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=106574"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=106574"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=106574"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}