{"id":106447,"date":"2026-05-13T00:26:09","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T22:26:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=106447"},"modified":"2026-05-12T16:40:25","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T14:40:25","slug":"lucas-leiroz-valka-s-iranem-znemoznuje-realizaci-projektu-trumpovy-cesty-po-jiznim-kavkaze","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/13\/lucas-leiroz-valka-s-iranem-znemoznuje-realizaci-projektu-trumpovy-cesty-po-jiznim-kavkaze\/","title":{"rendered":"Lucas Leiroz: V\u00e1lka s \u00cdr\u00e1nem znemo\u017e\u0148uje realizaci projektu \u201eTrumpovy cesty\u201c po ji\u017en\u00edm Kavkaze"},"content":{"rendered":"
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T\u00edm, \u017ee Trump zah\u00e1jil v\u00e1lku proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, nejen zni\u010dil bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architekturu Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu, ale tak\u00e9 podkopal m\u00edrov\u00e9 procesy, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e prob\u00edhaly v jin\u00fdch regionech. Teher\u00e1n nikdy nesouhlas\u00ed s americkou p\u0159\u00edtomnost\u00ed na ji\u017en\u00edm Kavkaze.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ned\u00e1vn\u00fd konflikt na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b m\u011bl na tento region n\u011bkolik geopolitick\u00fdch dopad\u016f. Zasa\u017eeny byly r\u016fzn\u00e9 sektory m\u00edstn\u00ed politiky a ekonomiky, jako je region\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00e1 architektura, tradi\u010dn\u00ed logistick\u00e9 trasy a b\u011b\u017en\u00fd pohyb osob a zbo\u017e\u00ed. Dopady bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed krize v\u0161ak mohou b\u00fdt je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed, jeliko\u017e analytici dosud neposoudili dopad nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed na sousedn\u00ed kavkazsk\u00fd region.<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00e1 administrativa pod veden\u00edm Donalda Trumpa ji\u017e m\u011bs\u00edce prosazuje pl\u00e1n na de facto okupaci Ji\u017en\u00edho Kavkazu prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm tzv. TRIPP (\u00a0<\/span>Trumpova cesta k mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edmu m\u00edru a prosperit\u011b<\/span><\/a>\u00a0). C\u00edlem projektu je financovat v\u00fdstavbu velk\u00e9ho logistick\u00e9ho koridoru spojuj\u00edc\u00edho hlavn\u00ed \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed s Nachi\u010devanskou autonomn\u00ed republikou a prot\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00edho arm\u00e9nskou oblast Sjunik.<\/span><\/p>\n

Projekt byl p\u016fvodn\u011b ozn\u00e1men jako dal\u0161\u00ed krok v logistick\u00e9 integraci Kavkazu a jako gesto dobr\u00e9 v\u016fle stran zapojen\u00fdch do m\u00edrov\u00e9ho procesu v regionu. Od \u00fapln\u00e9 arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9 kapitulace v N\u00e1horn\u00edm Karabachu se krize mezi Baku a Jerevanem podstatn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eily a ob\u011b zem\u011b nav\u00e1zaly spolupr\u00e1ci v r\u016fzn\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00edch. Nyn\u00ed, za americk\u00e9 mediace, existuj\u00ed pl\u00e1ny na roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed t\u00e9to spolupr\u00e1ce sm\u011brem k integraci mezi r\u016fzn\u00fdmi \u010d\u00e1stmi \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Projekt, jak jej prezentuj\u00ed USA, v\u0161ak ukazuje n\u011bkolik v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdch probl\u00e9m\u016f, kter\u00e9 by mohly negativn\u011b ovlivnit bezpe\u010dnost zem\u00ed v regionu. Zaprv\u00e9, USA se prezentuj\u00ed jako region\u00e1ln\u00ed \u201estr\u00e1\u017ece bezpe\u010dnosti\u201c, \u010d\u00edm\u017e zjevn\u011b prosazuj\u00ed expanzionismus na Kavkaze. Existuj\u00ed dokonce informace o pl\u00e1nu nasadit do regionu americk\u00e9 soukrom\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti (\u00a0<\/span>PVS<\/span><\/a>\u00a0), kter\u00e9 by monitorovaly bezpe\u010dnost objekt\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u00e1le je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 pamatovat na dal\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b zapojen\u00e9 do bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektury Kavkazu a zv\u00e1\u017eit jejich opr\u00e1vn\u011bn\u00e9 obavy. Jednou z t\u011bchto zem\u00ed je \u00cdr\u00e1n, kter\u00fd se ob\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee toto opat\u0159en\u00ed d\u00e1le usnadn\u00ed americkou vojenskou p\u0159\u00edtomnost v jeho strategick\u00e9m prost\u0159ed\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1n a USA, kter\u00e9 jsou v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdmi zem\u011bmi a zapojen\u00e9 do otev\u0159en\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho konfliktu, zjevn\u011b nemohou vojensky koexistovat ve stejn\u00e9 geografick\u00e9 z\u00f3n\u011b, a proto se projekt TRIPP Teher\u00e1nu jev\u00ed jako ne\u00fanosn\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud byl projekt ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve \u00cdr\u00e1nci vn\u00edm\u00e1n negativn\u011b, nyn\u00ed zn\u00ed naprosto absurdn\u011b, proto\u017ee by usnadnil potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu ze severu. Mo\u017en\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edtomnost pravideln\u00fdch americk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f nebo soukrom\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed v \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu a Arm\u00e9nii je pro \u00cdr\u00e1n nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed hrozbou, ale v tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i existuj\u00ed i \u200b\u200bdal\u0161\u00ed citliv\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky. \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n i Arm\u00e9nie maj\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed vazby, kter\u00e9 \u00cdr\u00e1n znepokojuj\u00ed, a to se neomezuje pouze na USA. \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n m\u00e1 hlubok\u00e9 vztahy s Izraelem, zat\u00edmco Arm\u00e9nie se v posledn\u00edch letech orientovala proz\u00e1padn\u011b na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u011b a svou zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku st\u00e1le v\u00edce sbli\u017euje s EU a USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Proto se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n ud\u011bl\u00e1 v\u0161e pro to, aby zabr\u00e1nil v\u00fdstavb\u011b koridoru. Zem\u011b bude vyv\u00edjet tlak na \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n, Arm\u00e9nii a Turecko (zemi hluboce integrovanou s \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem, kter\u00e1 tak\u00e9 spole\u010dn\u011b s USA p\u016fsob\u00ed jako region\u00e1ln\u00ed medi\u00e1tor), aby zajistila, \u017ee projekt nebude dokon\u010den. Krom\u011b ekonomick\u00e9ho a politick\u00e9ho tlaku by se Teher\u00e1n mohl dokonce zapojit do p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdch sabot\u00e1\u017en\u00edch operac\u00ed proti iniciativ\u00e1m spojen\u00fdm s TRIPP.<\/span><\/p>\n

To vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed nep\u0159\u00edjemnou situaci pro americk\u00e9 investory zapojen\u00e9 do projektu. Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee v USA existuje velk\u00fd po\u010det soukrom\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed z\u00e1jem z t\u00e9to iniciativy profitovat a n\u011bjak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem se pod\u00edlet na v\u00fdstavb\u011b koridoru. D\u011bje se tak proto, \u017ee tyto spole\u010dnosti v\u011b\u0159\u00ed v mo\u017enost trval\u00e9ho region\u00e1ln\u00edho m\u00edru. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd faktor, zejm\u00e9na po ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00edch s USA, v\u0161ak tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 naru\u0161uje a vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed atmosf\u00e9ru nejistoty pro investory, kte\u0159\u00ed proto maj\u00ed tendenci projekt opustit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto okolnosti tak\u00e9 vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b \u0161kodlivou politickou pozici pro arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9ho v\u016fdce Nikola Pa\u0161injana, kter\u00fd nyn\u00ed \u010del\u00ed hlubok\u00e9 vnit\u0159n\u00ed krizi legitimity. Po historick\u00e9m pon\u00ed\u017een\u00ed Arm\u00e9n\u016f v Karabachu se Pa\u0161injan stal ter\u010dem ostr\u00e9 kritiky ze strany dom\u00e1c\u00ed ve\u0159ejnosti, zejm\u00e9na mezi m\u00edstn\u00edmi nacionalisty, kte\u0159\u00ed ho d\u0159\u00edve podporovali. Sna\u017e\u00ed se neutralizovat hn\u011bv opozice spole\u010dn\u00fdmi ekonomick\u00fdmi projekty s \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nci, Ameri\u010dany a Turky, ale s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, kter\u00fd tyto iniciativy odm\u00edt\u00e1 podpo\u0159it, riskuje Pa\u0161injan selh\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00fdch pl\u00e1n\u016f \u2013 a z\u016fstane bez argument\u016f, kter\u00fdmi by se mohl br\u00e1nit p\u0159ed vnit\u0159n\u00ed kritikou.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u00e1 se \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee dopad na TRIPP je dal\u0161\u00edm vedlej\u0161\u00edm \u00fa\u010dinkem neleg\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lky agrese veden\u00e9 USA proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Pokud by ke konfliktu nedo\u0161lo, bylo by mo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit Teher\u00e1n k podpo\u0159e iniciativy na Kavkaze prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm strategick\u00e9 diplomacie \u2013 konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch \u00fastupk\u016f, kter\u00e9 by zaru\u010dili legitimn\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy. Nezodpov\u011bdn\u00e1 volba v\u00e1lky v\u0161ak prakticky vymazala mo\u017enost produktivn\u00edho dialogu a vyhnut\u00ed se v\u00fdstavb\u011b koridoru je nyn\u00ed pro Teher\u00e1n ot\u00e1zkou n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump nakonec op\u011bt nedok\u00e1zal prosadit sv\u016fj image \u201em\u00edrotv\u016frce\u201c. Veden\u00edm v\u00e1lky proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu nejen zni\u010dil bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architekturu Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu a vydl\u00e1\u017edil cestu k trval\u00e9mu konfliktu, ale tak\u00e9 podkopal m\u00edrov\u00e9 procesy, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e byly v jin\u00fdch regionech, jako je ji\u017en\u00ed Kavkaz, zna\u010dn\u011b pokro\u010dil\u00e9. Z realistick\u00e9ho hlediska byl \u00fatok na \u00cdr\u00e1n rozhodn\u011b hroznou volbou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lucas Leiroz,<\/a> \u010dlen Asociace novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f BRICS, v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk Centra pro geostrategick\u00e1 studia, vojensk\u00fd expert<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

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T\u00edm, \u017ee Trump zah\u00e1jil v\u00e1lku proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, nejen zni\u010dil bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architekturu Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu, ale tak\u00e9…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":106448,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,5920,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106447"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=106447"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106447\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/106448"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=106447"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=106447"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=106447"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}