{"id":106306,"date":"2026-05-12T00:11:09","date_gmt":"2026-05-11T22:11:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=106306"},"modified":"2026-05-11T09:31:37","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T07:31:37","slug":"andrew-korybko-jak-jemny-by-doopravdy-byl-rusko-armensky-rozvod","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/12\/andrew-korybko-jak-jemny-by-doopravdy-byl-rusko-armensky-rozvod\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Jak \u201ejemn\u00fd\u201c by doopravdy byl rusko-arm\u00e9nsk\u00fd \u201erozvod\u201c?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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M\u00edsto \u010dek\u00e1n\u00ed na to, a\u017e Pa\u0161injan uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1 referendum o vstupu do EU, co\u017e by se mu ale nemuselo poda\u0159it, aby si co nejd\u00e9le udr\u017eel v\u00fdhody plynouc\u00ed z \u010dlenstv\u00ed v Euroasijsk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 unii, by Putin mohl Arm\u00e9nii okam\u017eit\u011b od\u0159\u00edznout, pokud Pa\u0161injan vyhraje znovuzvolen\u00ed a\u0165 u\u017e jakoukoli slepou uli\u010dkou.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Jeden novin\u00e1\u0159 se o v\u00edkendu\u00a0<\/span>zeptal\u00a0<\/span><\/a>Putina na jeho reakci na to, \u017ee arm\u00e9nsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Nikol Pa\u0161injan minul\u00fd t\u00fdden hostil Zelensk\u00e9ho a dal mu platformu\u00a0<\/span>k vyhro\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed Rusku\u00a0<\/span><\/a>. Putin se t\u00e9to \u010d\u00e1sti ot\u00e1zky vyhnul, ale rozvedl se k budoucnosti jejich vztah\u016f. Rusko chce pro Arm\u00e9nii jen to nejlep\u0161\u00ed a bude respektovat p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00e9ho lidu, uvedl a v souvislosti s t\u00edm navrhl, aby se o Pa\u0161injanov\u00fdch pl\u00e1nech na vstup do EU uspo\u0159\u00e1dalo referendum, proto\u017ee tato politika riskuje zni\u010den\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch vazeb s Ruskem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro p\u0159ipomenut\u00ed, Putin uvedl, \u017ee o n\u011bco m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e \u010dtvrtina arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9ho HDP poch\u00e1z\u00ed z obchodu s Ruskem, co\u017e je zhruba 7 miliard dolar\u016f z 29 miliard dolar\u016f v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce. V\u00fdhody, kter\u00e9 Arm\u00e9nie z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 z \u010dlenstv\u00ed v Eurasijsk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 unii veden\u00e9 Ruskem, se vztahuj\u00ed na \u201ezem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed, zpracovatelsk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl, cla a dal\u0161\u00ed poplatky atd. To plat\u00ed i pro migraci\u201c. Pokud se jej\u00ed obyvatel\u00e9 rozhodnou s nimi skoncovat, \u0159ekl Putin, pak Rusko zah\u00e1j\u00ed proces \u201ejemn\u00e9ho, \u200b\u200binteligentn\u00edho a vz\u00e1jemn\u011b v\u00fdhodn\u00e9ho rozvodu\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin za\u010d\u00e1tkem dubna p\u0159iv\u00edtal Pa\u0161injana k otev\u0159en\u00fdm rozhovor\u016fm, kter\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>zde byly hodnoceny\u00a0<\/span><\/a>jako okam\u017eik pravdy v jejich vztaz\u00edch. Den pot\u00e9 \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Vysok\u00fd rusk\u00fd p\u0159edstavitel bijel na poplach kv\u016fli zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edm se vztah\u016fm s Arm\u00e9ni\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e konkr\u00e9tn\u011b odsoudil srpnovou \u201eTrumpovu cestu k mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edmu m\u00edru a prosperit\u011b\u201c (\u00a0<\/span>TRIPP\u00a0<\/span><\/a>) za naru\u0161en\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed geostrategick\u00e9 rovnov\u00e1hy. Minul\u00fd t\u00fdden n\u00e1sledovalo\u00a0<\/span>upevn\u011bn\u00ed vlivu EU\u00a0<\/span><\/a>v Arm\u00e9nii p\u0159ed volbami, kter\u00e9 se budou konat p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee Pa\u0161injan, a\u0165 u\u017e po dobr\u00e9m \u010di po zl\u00e9m, znovu vyhraje volby a n\u00e1sledn\u011b pod\u0159\u00edd\u00ed Arm\u00e9nii Z\u00e1padu, aby urychlil expanzi jej\u00edho vlivu\u00a0<\/span>pod\u00e9l cel\u00e9ho ji\u017en\u00edho okraje Ruska , kterou poh\u00e1n\u00ed Dohoda o trestn\u00e9m st\u00ednu (TRIPP\u00a0<\/span><\/a>). Nov\u00e9 de facto spojenectv\u00ed jejich spole\u010dn\u00e9ho \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho souseda s Ukrajinou p\u0159irozen\u011b zvy\u0161uje rusk\u00e9 hodnocen\u00ed hrozby a zvy\u0161uje riziko dlouhodob\u00e9 nestability v \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm regionu z d\u016fvod\u016f vysv\u011btlen\u00fdch\u00a0<\/span>zde\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

To, co se odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 na ji\u017en\u00edm k\u0159\u00eddle Ruska, je v\u00fdsledkem toho, co lze popsat jako\u00a0<\/span>neoreaganskou doktr\u00ednu\u00a0<\/span><\/a>neboli zrychlen\u00e9 omezov\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho vlivu po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b ze strany Trumpa 2.0, se zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edm zam\u011b\u0159en\u00edm na jeho \u201esf\u00e9ru vlivu\u201c zn\u00e1mou jako \u201ebl\u00edzk\u00e9 zahrani\u010d\u00ed\u201c. Pokud se to v Arm\u00e9nii nezvr\u00e1t\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00edm vlasteneck\u00e9 opozice navzdory v\u0161em o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm a pokud se Pa\u0161injan rychle postav\u00ed k je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu po\u0161kozen\u00ed rusk\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f, ne\u017e u\u017e to ud\u011blal, pak jejich \u201erozvod\u201c nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt tak \u201ejemn\u00fd\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzestup rusk\u00e9 frakce tvrd\u00e9 linie, o kter\u00e9m se\u00a0<\/span>zde mluvilo\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, sni\u017euje pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee Putin souhlas\u00ed s ponech\u00e1n\u00edm d\u0159\u00edve zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdch v\u00fdhod Arm\u00e9nie z Euroasijsk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 unie. Pokud bude rusk\u00fd vliv v Arm\u00e9nii nen\u00e1vratn\u011b ztracen na neur\u010dito do budoucna (s referendem o Pa\u0161injanov\u011b politice vstupu do EU \u010di bez n\u011bj), pak by jej mohl okam\u017eit\u011b p\u0159eru\u0161it. C\u00edlem by mohlo b\u00fdt za\u017eehnout zoufal\u00e9 vlasteneck\u00e9 povst\u00e1n\u00ed a pot\u00e9 nechat rusk\u00e9 nep\u0159\u00e1tele, aby se postarali o sv\u00e9hlavou Arm\u00e9nii, pokud to sel\u017ee.<\/span><\/p>\n

Daleko od \u201ejemn\u00e9ho\u201c rozvodu by to mohl b\u00fdt velmi nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00fd a kone\u010dn\u00fdm v\u00fdsledkem by mohlo b\u00fdt, \u017ee \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsko-tureck\u00e1 osa formalizuje status Arm\u00e9nie jako jejich spole\u010dn\u00e9ho \u201eneoosmansk\u00e9ho Sand\u017eaku\u201c se v\u0161emi\u00a0<\/span>zde p\u0159edpov\u011bzen\u00fdmi sociokulturn\u00edmi n\u00e1klady\u00a0<\/span><\/a>. Pokud se to zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Pa\u0161injanova znovuzvolen\u00ed nevyhnuteln\u00e9, mohli by argumentovat zast\u00e1nci tvrd\u00e9 linie, pak je lep\u0161\u00ed radik\u00e1ln\u011b urychlit v\u0161e v nad\u011bji, \u017ee \u0161okov\u00e1n\u00ed Arm\u00e9n\u016f je p\u0159im\u011bje k odporu, ne\u017e nechat situaci pomalu se odv\u00edjet, dokud nebude p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 pozd\u011b na zvr\u00e1cen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

M\u00edsto \u010dek\u00e1n\u00ed na to, a\u017e Pa\u0161injan uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1 referendum o vstupu do EU, co\u017e by se…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":106307,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1730,2181,22],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106306"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=106306"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106306\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/106307"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=106306"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=106306"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=106306"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}