{"id":106293,"date":"2026-05-11T00:30:38","date_gmt":"2026-05-10T22:30:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=106293"},"modified":"2026-05-10T19:33:44","modified_gmt":"2026-05-10T17:33:44","slug":"filipiny-prvni-asijske-domino-inflace-pohanene-valkou-proti-iranu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/11\/filipiny-prvni-asijske-domino-inflace-pohanene-valkou-proti-iranu\/","title":{"rendered":"Filip\u00edny, prvn\u00ed asijsk\u00e9 domino inflace poh\u00e1n\u011bn\u00e9 v\u00e1lkou proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

\u010cl\u00e1nek, kter\u00fd n\u00ed\u017ee p\u0159ekl\u00e1d\u00e1me, od Williama Peseka a publikovan\u00fd 6. kv\u011btna 2026 v\u00a0<\/span>Asia Times<\/span><\/em>\u00a0, popisuje nekontrolovatelnou inflaci, kter\u00e1 su\u017euje Filip\u00edny \u2013 prvn\u00ed asijskou zemi, jej\u00ed\u017e ekonomiku zjevn\u011b destabilizovala v\u00e1lka v \u00cdr\u00e1nu a uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu. Nejedn\u00e1 se pouze o makroekonomickou zpr\u00e1vu: Pesek ukazuje, \u017ee 7,2% n\u00e1r\u016fst cen v dubnu je jen \u0161pi\u010dkou ledovce \u0161okov\u00e9 vlny \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00edc\u00ed se rozvojovou Asi\u00ed, od finan\u010dn\u00edch trh\u016f a\u017e po nejchud\u0161\u00ed dom\u00e1cnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento p\u0159eklad je p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00edm dvou text\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsme zde publikovali.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prvn\u00edm je\u00a0<\/span>m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed hodnocen\u00ed \u201eTindaleovy kask\u00e1dy\u201c<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(30. b\u0159ezna 2026). Pro p\u0159ipomenut\u00ed, analytik Craig Tindale ji\u017e 4. b\u0159ezna modeloval, jak by \u00fapln\u00e9 naru\u0161en\u00ed ropn\u00e9 dopravy v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu spustilo dvan\u00e1ct kask\u00e1dov\u00fdch na\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed o naru\u0161en\u00ed: v oblasti t\u011b\u017ek\u00fdch chemik\u00e1li\u00ed, hnojiv, polovodi\u010d\u016f, financ\u00ed, potravin a dokonce i kompletn\u00ed reformy sv\u011btov\u00e9ho \u0159\u00e1du. Na\u0161e aktualizace z 30. b\u0159ezna potvrdila, \u017ee prvn\u00edch p\u011bt na\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed ji\u017e bylo aktivov\u00e1no a \u017ee jejich d\u016fsledky zasahuj\u00ed Asii a Evropu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Druh\u00fdm je vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed spole\u010dnosti\u00a0<\/span>Nikkei Asia<\/span><\/em>\u00a0, kter\u00e9 jsme 24. dubna p\u0159elo\u017eili pod n\u00e1zvem\u00a0<\/span>\u201e\u00a0<\/span>Bez\u00fat\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 vyhl\u00eddky pro migruj\u00edc\u00ed pracovn\u00edky z jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. Tato zpr\u00e1va dokumentovala \u010dasto opom\u00edjen\u00fd lidsk\u00fd a finan\u010dn\u00ed rozm\u011br krize: nucenou repatriaci tis\u00edc\u016f filip\u00ednsk\u00fdch, indon\u00e9sk\u00fdch a thajsk\u00fdch pracovn\u00edk\u016f, pokles remitenc\u00ed (kter\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed 8,7 % filip\u00ednsk\u00e9ho HDP) a kolaps zam\u011bstnanosti v hotelov\u00e9m a stavebn\u00edm sektoru v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pesek\u016fv \u010dl\u00e1nek uzav\u00edr\u00e1 kruh. Ukazuje, jak v Manile kask\u00e1da Tindale dos\u00e1hla 7. \u0159\u00e1du (finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy, klesaj\u00edc\u00ed peso) a 9. \u0159\u00e1du (soci\u00e1ln\u00ed a potravinov\u00e1 nejistota), zat\u00edmco pokles remitenc\u00ed, jak ho popisuje Nikkei Asia, zhor\u0161uje tlak na kupn\u00ed s\u00edlu dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed. Filip\u00edny se tak jev\u00ed jako skute\u010dn\u00fd \u201ekan\u00e1rek v uheln\u00e9m dole\u201c: zem\u011b, kter\u00e1 je \u010dist\u00fdm dovozcem ropy, z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na remitenc\u00edch od sv\u00fdch cizinc\u016f a politicky k\u0159ehk\u00e1, n\u00e1zorn\u011b ilustruje, jak se vzd\u00e1len\u00fd energetick\u00fd \u0161ok m\u016f\u017ee prom\u011bnit v krizi \u017eivotn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f a pot\u00e9 v krizi d\u016fv\u011bry.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fausto Giudice<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

*<\/span><\/strong><\/h5>\n

Filip\u00edny, prvn\u00ed zem\u011b, kter\u00e1 ztratila p\u016fdu pod nohama tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 inflaci poh\u00e1n\u011bn\u00e9 v\u00e1lkou proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu<\/span><\/h3>\n

od\u00a0<\/span>Williama Peseka<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Prudk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst inflace na 7,2 % je dosud nejjasn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm varov\u00e1n\u00edm p\u0159ed zk\u00e1zou, kterou ropn\u00fd \u0161ok z hnut\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n-Contras brzy zp\u016fsob\u00ed rozvojov\u00fdm zem\u00edm v Asii.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

V\u00fdzva k probuzen\u00ed pro celou rozvojovou Asii<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Prudk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst inflace na Filip\u00edn\u00e1ch v dubnu je v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdm varovn\u00fdm sign\u00e1lem \u2013 skute\u010dn\u00fdm ekonomick\u00fdm varovn\u00fdm sign\u00e1lem \u201ekan\u00e1rka v uheln\u00e9m dole\u201c, kter\u00fd by bylo nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 ignorovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
Z\u00e1kazn\u00edk dr\u017e\u00ed bankovky filip\u00ednsk\u00fdch pesos b\u011bhem bankovn\u00ed transakce v Manile. Inflace prudce roste kv\u016fli vysok\u00fdm cen\u00e1m dovozu potravin. Foto: Archivy Asia Times \/ AFP \/ Romeo Gacad<\/span><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Meziro\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst o 7,2 % je zhruba dvojn\u00e1sobkem\u00a0<\/span>3,4% tempa r\u016fstu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0zaznamenan\u00e9ho v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed. Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee propad Filip\u00edn do stagflace (obdob\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 stagnace spojen\u00e9 s vysokou inflac\u00ed) rozhodn\u011b nebyl na bingo kart\u011b prezidenta Ferdinanda Marcose Jr. pro rok 2026. Tato situace nen\u00ed jen drsn\u00fdm bud\u00ed\u010dkem pro \u00fa\u0159ady v Manile; je to nouzov\u00fd sign\u00e1l pro celou rozvojovou Asii.<\/span><\/p>\n

Filip\u00edny jsou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b prvn\u00edm infla\u010dn\u00edm dominem spojen\u00fdm s \u00edr\u00e1nsko-ir\u00e1ckou v\u00e1lkou, kter\u00e9 v Asii padlo. Jsou p\u0159edvojem nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edho ekonomick\u00e9ho traumatu, traumatu, kter\u00e9 se bude jen zhor\u0161ovat, dokud bude Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv uzav\u0159en.<\/span><\/p>\n

Buj\u00edc\u00ed inflace nut\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky k akci<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Ekonomy nejv\u00edce znepokojuje rozsah r\u016fstu cen. Od potravin a dopravy a\u017e po ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 slu\u017eby je n\u00e1r\u016fst cen tak rozs\u00e1hl\u00fd a strm\u00fd, \u017ee se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee inflace na Filip\u00edn\u00e1ch ve druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed 8 %. Je proto prakticky jist\u00e9, \u017ee filip\u00ednsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) v \u010dervnu zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea<\/span><\/a>\u00a0se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt dal\u0161\u00edm dominem, kter\u00e9 je t\u0159eba sledovat. Investo\u0159i se dnes dozv\u011bd\u011bli, \u017ee spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 ceny tam vzrostly nejrychlej\u0161\u00edm tempem za t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dva roky, a to v d\u016fsledku prudce rostouc\u00edch cen ropy. Meziro\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst o 2,6 % ost\u0159e kontrastuje s b\u0159eznov\u00fdm tempem 2,2 %, co\u017e v\u00fdrazn\u011b zvy\u0161uje pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee Korejsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby.<\/span><\/p>\n

Energetick\u00e1 z\u00e1vislost, kter\u00e1 ohro\u017euje cel\u00fd region<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Probl\u00e9my Filip\u00edn jsou v\u0161ak mnohem nal\u00e9hav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. P\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00ed zranitelnost jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie, kter\u00e1 dov\u00e1\u017e\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ve\u0161kerou svou ropu z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eMezi nejv\u00edce ohro\u017een\u00e9 pat\u0159\u00ed asijsk\u00e9 ekonomiky, v\u010detn\u011b Thajska, Singapuru, Filip\u00edn, ale tak\u00e9 Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje a Japonska,\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0vysv\u011btluje Evgenhia Sleptsova, ekonomka z Oxford Economics.\u00a0<\/span>\u201eTyto zem\u011b jsou siln\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na dovozu energie, do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry se spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na z\u00e1sobovac\u00ed trasy z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu a maj\u00ed omezen\u00e9 dom\u00e1c\u00ed energetick\u00e9 rezervy<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. \u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak napsal ekonom Ronald Goseco, \u0159editel Filip\u00ednsk\u00e9ho institutu finan\u010dn\u00edch mana\u017eer\u016f, v \u010dl\u00e1nku v den\u00edku\u00a0<\/span>Manila Times<\/span><\/em><\/a>\u00a0:\u00a0<\/span>\u201ePalivov\u00e1 krize zd\u016fraznila na\u0161i z\u00e1vislost na zahrani\u010dn\u00ed rop\u011b. Nedok\u00e1zali jsme zvl\u00e1dnout prudk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst cen na \u010derpac\u00edch stanic\u00edch. Ji\u017e nyn\u00ed vid\u00edme nekontrolovatelnou inflaci zp\u016fsobenou t\u00edmto ropn\u00fdm \u0161okem<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. \u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezi zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb a nad\u011bj\u00ed na do\u010dasn\u00fd \u0161ok<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Aris Dacanay, ekonom HSBC pro jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii, se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>\u201eBSP, vzhledem ke sv\u00e9mu mand\u00e1tu cenov\u00e9 stability, m\u016f\u017ee zv\u00fd\u0161it sv\u00e9 sazby a\u017e o 6 %\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0oproti sou\u010dasn\u00fdm 4,5 %.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ne ka\u017ed\u00fd se ob\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00fdvoje Filip\u00edn \u2013 ani toho, \u017ee BSP nebezpe\u010dn\u011b zaost\u00e1v\u00e1 ve sv\u00fdch akc\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eSt\u00e1le v\u011b\u0159\u00edme, \u017ee se inflace v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce vr\u00e1t\u00ed do c\u00edlov\u00e9ho rozmez\u00ed BSP, jakmile tento \u0161ok na stran\u011b nab\u00eddky odezn\u00ed<\/span><\/em>\u00a0,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Miguel Chanco, ekonom z Pantheon Macroeconomics v Lond\u00fdn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b na BSP roste tlak, aby zabr\u00e1nila tomu, aby se infla\u010dn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed vymkla kontrole.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eDvojit\u00e1 r\u00e1na\u201c pro nejchud\u0161\u00ed dom\u00e1cnosti<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

V b\u0159eznu, kdy se Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv uzav\u0159el a prudce rostouc\u00ed ceny ropy a hnojiv ot\u0159\u00e1sly trhy, Marcos Jr. vyhl\u00e1sil\u00a0<\/span>celost\u00e1tn\u00ed energetickou nouzovou situaci<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prudk\u00fd r\u016fst cen ropy a oslaben\u00ed filip\u00ednsk\u00e9ho pesa p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>\u201edvojitou r\u00e1nu, kter\u00e1 v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch zdvojn\u00e1sob\u00ed inflaci a nejv\u00edce zas\u00e1hne miliony chud\u00fdch filip\u00ednsk\u00fdch rodin<\/span><\/em>\u00a0,\u201c uv\u00e1d\u00ed think tank IBON Foundation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gabriel Collins, ekonom z Bakerova institutu Riceovy univerzity, poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>\u201ekdy\u017e ceny ropy vzrostou b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika dn\u00ed o v\u00edce ne\u017e 40 %, dopady se roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed v\u0161ude. V zem\u00edch s vysok\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edjmy se d\u016fsledky pohybuj\u00ed od drobn\u00fdch nep\u0159\u00edjemnost\u00ed a\u017e po v\u00e1\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dilemata \u201a\u00a0<\/span>topit, nebo j\u00edst<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u2018, kdy si dom\u00e1cnosti mus\u00ed vybrat mezi v\u00fddaji na energii a z\u00e1kladn\u00edmi pot\u0159ebami. V rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se zemi, jako jsou Filip\u00edny, kde v\u011bt\u0161ina lid\u00ed \u017eije s velmi mal\u00fdm finan\u010dn\u00edm prostorem, m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt prudk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst cen energi\u00ed dramatick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. \u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Filip\u00edny jako laborato\u0159 pro budouc\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Filip\u00edny slou\u017e\u00ed jako reprezentativn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edklad rozvojov\u00fdch ekonomik z\u00e1visl\u00fdch na rop\u011b, Collins dod\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>\u201eilustruj\u00ed, jak se prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lka v \u00cdr\u00e1nu m\u016f\u017ee prom\u00edtnout do soci\u00e1ln\u00edho, rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9ho a politick\u00e9ho tlaku\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento konflikt m\u00e1 pro zemi obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9 d\u016fsledky, proto\u017ee je dvojn\u00e1sobn\u011b vystavena rop\u011b. P\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 30 % jej\u00edch prim\u00e1rn\u00edch energetick\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek poch\u00e1z\u00ed z ropy, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ve\u0161ker\u00e1 ropa se dov\u00e1\u017e\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jeho dopravn\u00ed syst\u00e9m je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u00fdhradn\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00fd na rop\u011b. Krom\u011b toho v oblasti Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu pracuje t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159\u00a0<\/span>2,5 milionu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Filip\u00ednc\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed ro\u010dn\u011b vyd\u011bl\u00e1vaj\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 15 miliard dolar\u016f a v\u00fdznamnou \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00fdch v\u00fdd\u011blk\u016f pos\u00edlaj\u00ed dom\u016f ve form\u011b remitenc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 podporuj\u00ed rodiny a m\u00edstn\u00ed ekonomiky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Strategick\u00fd test proamerick\u00e9ho sm\u00fd\u0161len\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Pro Filip\u00edny je v s\u00e1zce je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak\u00a0<\/span>p\u00ed\u0161e<\/span><\/a>\u00a0David Dichoso z George Washington University v\u00a0<\/span>\u010dasopise The Diplomat<\/span><\/em>\u00a0:\u00a0<\/span>\u201eV\u00e1lka v \u00cdr\u00e1nu nen\u00ed pro Filip\u00edny jen ekonomick\u00fdm \u0161okem \u2013 je to strategick\u00fd z\u00e1t\u011b\u017eov\u00fd test pro proamerick\u00e9 sm\u00fd\u0161len\u00ed administrativy Marcose Jr.<\/span><\/em>\u00a0\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Julie Chernov Hwang, ekonomka ze Soufan Center, poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee Asie za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 ot\u0159esy a dopady v mnoha ekonomick\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00edch kv\u016fli v\u00e1lce mezi USA a Izraelem a \u00cdr\u00e1nem.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eNegativn\u00ed dopady jsou patrn\u00e9 v odv\u011btv\u00edch energetiky, potravin\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed a zam\u011bstnanosti v ji\u017en\u00ed a jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii<\/span><\/em>\u00a0,\u201c uvedla.\u00a0<\/span>\u201eEnergetick\u00e1 krize postihuje i \u010d\u00e1sti v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie<\/span><\/em>\u00a0.\u201c Hwang dodal, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>\u201e\u00a0<\/span>pokud by<\/span><\/a>\u00a0po ne\u00fasp\u011bchu\u00a0<\/span>rozhovor\u016f v Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du<\/span><\/a>\u00a0do\u0161lo k poru\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed a pokud by Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv z\u016fstal uzav\u0159en, zv\u00fd\u0161ilo by se riziko, \u017ee velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st Asie za\u017eije hospod\u00e1\u0159skou recesi. Nejv\u00edce znepokojiv\u00fd je p\u0159\u00edpad Filip\u00edn, kter\u00e9 z\u00edsk\u00e1vaj\u00ed 90 % sv\u00e9 ropy z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. \u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Omezen\u00fd man\u00e9vrovac\u00ed prostor asijsk\u00fdch vl\u00e1d<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, co m\u016f\u017ee Manila ud\u011blat pro ochranu ekonomiky p\u0159ed t\u011bmito roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00fdmi riziky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ministr hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed Arsenio Balisacan uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee vl\u00e1da\u00a0<\/span>\u201eklade d\u016fraz na c\u00edlen\u00e9 intervence, zejm\u00e9na na zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed tlaku na r\u016fst cen potravin, energi\u00ed a\u00a0<\/span>dopravy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Na\u0161\u00ed prioritou je zajistit stabiln\u00ed dod\u00e1vky paliv, zvl\u00e1dnuteln\u00e9 ceny a odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed ochranu v\u0161ech odv\u011btv\u00ed tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 sou\u010dasn\u00fdm n\u00e1rodn\u00edm a glob\u00e1ln\u00edm v\u00fdzv\u00e1m<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. \u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

To je n\u00e1kladn\u00e9 a situaci komplikuje\u00a0<\/span>4,1% pokles<\/span><\/a>\u00a0pesa v\u016f\u010di americk\u00e9mu dolaru od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokles pesa a indick\u00e9 rupie ukazuje, jak\u00a0<\/span>\u201eAsie \u010del\u00ed z\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu cenov\u00e9mu \u0161oku a \u0161oku v oblasti sm\u011bnn\u00fdch relac\u00ed (tj. pom\u011bru mezi cenami v\u00fdvozu a dovozu), ne\u017e nazna\u010duj\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed indexy<\/span><\/em>\u00a0,\u201c vysv\u011btluje Priyanka Kishore, hlavn\u00ed ekonomka spole\u010dnosti Asia Decoded.\u00a0<\/span>\u201eD\u016fsledky pro \u010dist\u00e9 dovozce energie jsou okam\u017eit\u00e9 a v\u00fdrazn\u00e9: zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se extern\u00ed platebn\u00ed bilance,\u00a0<\/span>devalvace m\u011bny<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 infla\u010dn\u00ed tlaky, kter\u00e9 se prom\u00edtaj\u00ed do ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch re\u00e1ln\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f a v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku do ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed produkce<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. \u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Uhl\u00ed, nerovnom\u011brn\u011b dostupn\u00e9 \u00fato\u010di\u0161t\u011b<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Celkov\u011b podle Kishorea panuje v regionu\u00a0<\/span>\u201ev\u00fdrazn\u00e1 odli\u0161nost\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0v tom, jak, kdy a do jak\u00e9 m\u00edry se naru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek projev\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eNa z\u00e1klad\u011b na\u0161eho hodnocen\u00ed jsou rizika fyzick\u00e9ho nedostatku v ropn\u00e9m a plyn\u00e1rensk\u00e9m sektoru v bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pro Filip\u00edny, Vietnam, Indii a\u00a0<\/span>Thajsko<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Ohniska v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9ho naru\u0161en\u00ed se v\u0161ak mohou objevit dlouho p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e ekonomika dos\u00e1hne bodu zlomu \u2013 jak dokazuje nedostatek plynu na va\u0159en\u00ed v Indii, kter\u00fd zp\u016fsobuje prudk\u00fd pokles popt\u00e1vky, a to i v dob\u011b, kdy se z\u00e1rove\u0148 projevuje negativn\u00ed dopad vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch cen.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

To v\u0161e nut\u00ed asijsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, a\u0165 u\u017e k lep\u0161\u00edmu nebo k hor\u0161\u00edmu, zkoumat zp\u016fsoby, jak p\u0159ej\u00edt na uhl\u00ed. Japonsko a Korea zva\u017euj\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sv\u00e9 kapacity v\u00fdroby elekt\u0159iny z v sou\u010dasnosti nedostate\u010dn\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdch uheln\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eTo m\u016f\u017ee pomoci sn\u00ed\u017eit tlak na v\u00fdrobu elekt\u0159iny<\/span><\/em>\u00a0,\u201c vysv\u011btluje Kishore,\u00a0<\/span>\u201eale moc to nepom\u016f\u017ee k \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed nedostatku dopravn\u00edch paliv nebo kuchy\u0148sk\u00e9ho plynu. Nav\u00edc ne v\u0161echny ekonomiky maj\u00ed pot\u0159ebnou flexibilitu k proveden\u00ed t\u00e9to zm\u011bny. Thajsko m\u00e1 omezenou kapacitu rezerv uhl\u00ed, Singapur \u017e\u00e1dnou a dodate\u010dn\u00e1 substitu\u010dn\u00ed kapacita je v\u00a0<\/span>\u010c\u00edn\u011b<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, Indii, na Filip\u00edn\u00e1ch a ve Vietnamu skromn\u00e1, vzhledem k ji\u017e tak vysok\u00e9mu pod\u00edlu uhl\u00ed v jejich energetick\u00e9m mixu<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. \u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se do krize vm\u00eds\u00ed m\u00edstn\u00ed politika<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Investo\u0159i se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee v dob\u011b, kdy se Filip\u00edny pot\u00fdkaj\u00ed s rostouc\u00ed inflac\u00ed, by politick\u00e9 spory v Manile mohly situaci d\u00e1le zkomplikovat. Za\u010d\u00e1tkem tohoto t\u00fddne justi\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdbor Sn\u011bmovny reprezentant\u016f rozhodl, \u017ee existuj\u00ed dostate\u010dn\u00e9 d\u016fvody k\u00a0<\/span>odvol\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0viceprezidentky Sary Duterteov\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eMnoho faktor\u016f komplikuje, jak se na\u0161e schopnost zvl\u00e1dat krizi prom\u00edt\u00e1 do \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho politick\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhu<\/span><\/em>\u00a0,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Bob Herrera-Lim, gener\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159editel spole\u010dnosti Teneo Holdings.\u00a0<\/span>\u201eTyto prvky nelze odd\u011blit od toho, co se d\u011bje ve zbytku sv\u011bta<\/span><\/em>\u00a0.\u201c A\u00a0pt\u00e1 se:\u00a0<\/span>\u201ePokud bude proces impeachmentu proti Sa\u0159e pokra\u010dovat, ovlivn\u00ed to politick\u00e9 kalkulace kolem tohoto impeachmentu?\u201c a poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee tato politick\u00e1 s\u00e1ga by mohla m\u00edt\u00a0<\/span><\/em>\u201ere\u00e1ln\u00e9 dopady\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0na ekonomiku.<\/span><\/p>\n

V roce 2025 \u010dinil filip\u00ednsk\u00fd r\u016fst 4,4 %, co\u017e je m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e vl\u00e1dn\u00ed c\u00edl 5,5 % a\u017e 6,5 %. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee se zem\u011b st\u00e1le v\u00edce vzdaluje od sv\u00fdch r\u016fstov\u00fdch ambic\u00ed ve v\u00fd\u0161i 7 % a\u017e 8 %, nem\u016f\u017ee Marcosova administrativa vinit obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lku americk\u00e9ho prezidenta Donalda Trumpa ani deflaci importovanou z \u010c\u00edny. Skute\u010dn\u00fdm vin\u00edkem je dom\u00e1c\u00ed politick\u00fd chaos.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zabr\u00e1n\u011bn\u00ed zhroucen\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bry v dom\u00e1cnostech<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

V tomto turbulentn\u00edm kontextu je z\u00e1sadn\u00ed, aby tv\u016frci politik v Manile obnovili kolektivn\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bru dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed v ekonomiku, \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Aris Dacanay z HSBC.\u00a0<\/span>\u201eDom\u00e1cnosti se nep\u0159esouvaj\u00ed pouze z nepodstatn\u00fdch na nezbytn\u00e9 v\u00fddaje<\/span><\/em>\u00a0,\u201c poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1.\u00a0<\/span>\u201eZcela omezuj\u00ed v\u00fddaje<\/span><\/em>\u00a0,\u201c dod\u00e1v\u00e1 s odkazem na data z pr\u016fzkum\u016f, kter\u00e1 ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00edce dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed spo\u0159\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159ed pandemi\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee nekontrolovateln\u00e1 inflace\u00a0<\/span>b\u011bhem v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Manile k obnoven\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bry nijak zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 nepom\u016f\u017ee. A jeliko\u017e se filip\u00ednsk\u00e9 domino v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch t\u00fddnech bude kym\u00e1cet, m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt prvn\u00edm, kter\u00e9 v Asii spadne, ale pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ne posledn\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zdroj: <\/span>Asia Times<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u010cl\u00e1nek, kter\u00fd n\u00ed\u017ee p\u0159ekl\u00e1d\u00e1me, od Williama Peseka a publikovan\u00fd 6. kv\u011btna 2026 v\u00a0Asia Times\u00a0, popisuje…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":106294,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,3986,45,38,371,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106293"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=106293"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106293\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/106294"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=106293"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=106293"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=106293"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}