{"id":106196,"date":"2026-05-10T00:11:17","date_gmt":"2026-05-09T22:11:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=106196"},"modified":"2026-05-09T12:56:21","modified_gmt":"2026-05-09T10:56:21","slug":"propast-mezi-usa-a-iranem-je-prilis-hluboka-na-to-aby-se-dala-preklenout","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/10\/propast-mezi-usa-a-iranem-je-prilis-hluboka-na-to-aby-se-dala-preklenout\/","title":{"rendered":"Propast mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 hlubok\u00e1 na to, aby se dala p\u0159eklenout"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Jak jsem nast\u00ednil ve sv\u00e9m posledn\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nku, n\u011bkdo z Trumpovy administrativy, kdo byl informov\u00e1n o Trumpov\u00fdch bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edch se prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edch ohledn\u011b v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, v\u010dera dos\u00e1hl zna\u010dn\u00e9ho finan\u010dn\u00edho zisku. To je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edho Trumpova modelu \u00famysln\u00e9ho klam\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 tedy p\u0159edst\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e9ho pokroku v rozhovorech s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, co\u017e n\u00e1sledn\u011b zp\u016fsobuje prudk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst americk\u00e9ho akciov\u00e9ho trhu a pokles cen ropn\u00fdch futures kontrakt\u016f.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Realita je takov\u00e1: V p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch \u0161esti m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch nebude dosa\u017eeno \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9ho vyjednan\u00e9ho \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, proto\u017ee americk\u00fd a \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd narativ jsou neslu\u010diteln\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za\u010dn\u011bme americk\u00fdm postojem, respektive narativem\u2026 \u00cdr\u00e1n je nenapraviteln\u00fd isl\u00e1msk\u00fd teroristick\u00fd st\u00e1t na pokraji kolapsu. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 politick\u00e9 a vojensk\u00e9 veden\u00ed je hluboce rozd\u011blen\u00e9. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 ekonomika nem\u00e1 \u0161anci na zotaven\u00ed, dokud v\u00e1lka pokra\u010duje. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 kapacity byly zdecimov\u00e1ny. \u00cdr\u00e1n mus\u00ed zastavit obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed uranu a umo\u017enit pln\u00e9 a neru\u0161en\u00e9 inspekce sv\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Toto je p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed drtiv\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161iny Trumpov\u00fdch poradc\u016f a americk\u00fdch politick\u00fdch koment\u00e1tor\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed je stejn\u011b ne\u00fastupn\u00e9\u2026 \u00cdr\u00e1n bude souhlasit s vyjednan\u00fdm \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm o ukon\u010den\u00ed blok\u00e1dy Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu pouze tehdy, pokud Izrael souhlas\u00ed s \u00fapln\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm v Libanonu a Gaze. Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv z\u016fstane pod \u00edr\u00e1nskou kontrolou a kontrola nad Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem se nikdy nevzd\u00e1. Dne 5. kv\u011btna 2026 \u00cdr\u00e1n z\u0159\u00eddil nov\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad, \u00da\u0159ad pro Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv (PGSA), kter\u00fd vy\u017eaduje, aby se v\u0161echny lod\u011b, kter\u00e9 cht\u011bj\u00ed proplout Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem, zaregistrovaly, vyplnily formul\u00e1\u0159e a zaplatily m\u00fdtn\u00e9 p\u0159ed obdr\u017een\u00edm povolen\u00ed k tranzitu. \u00cdr\u00e1n se nikdy nevzd\u00e1 sv\u00fdch z\u00e1sob obohacen\u00e9ho uranu a jako suver\u00e9nn\u00ed st\u00e1t a signat\u00e1\u0159 Smlouvy o ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed bude uplat\u0148ovat sv\u00e9 pr\u00e1vo na obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed uranu pro m\u00edrov\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dely. \u00cdr\u00e1n bude i nad\u00e1le podporovat palestinsk\u00fd lid a jeho boj za svobodu a sebeur\u010den\u00ed a bude i nad\u00e1le poskytovat pomoc Hizball\u00e1hu. \u00cdr\u00e1n se v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku nevzd\u00e1 sv\u00e9ho pr\u00e1va vyr\u00e1b\u011bt balistick\u00e9 rakety.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tomuto, lidi, \u0159\u00edk\u00e1te slep\u00e1 uli\u010dka. Americk\u00e1 pozice spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 na \u0159ad\u011b myln\u00fdch p\u0159edpoklad\u016f. Zaprv\u00e9, \u00cdr\u00e1n nen\u00ed hlavn\u00edm sponzorem terorismu a nem\u00e1 v pl\u00e1nu destabilizovat sv\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 sousedy v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. Zadruh\u00e9, mezi \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm politick\u00fdm veden\u00edm a Isl\u00e1msk\u00fdmi revolu\u010dn\u00edmi gardami (IRGC) neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd rozpor \u2013 prezident, ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed, p\u0159edseda parlamentu a ajatoll\u00e1h, v\u0161ichni bojovali a slou\u017eili za IRGC b\u011bhem v\u00e1lky v Ir\u00e1ku. Zat\u0159et\u00ed, \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 ekonomika se za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 zotavovat d\u00edky podpo\u0159e Ruska, \u010c\u00edny a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu, stejn\u011b jako vysok\u00fdm cen\u00e1m ropy. Za\u010dtvrt\u00e9, na rozd\u00edl od Trumpov\u00fdch tvrzen\u00ed jsou \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo, letectvo a z\u00e1soby balistick\u00fdch raket, st\u0159el s plochou dr\u00e1hou letu a dron\u016f neporu\u0161en\u00e9 a schopn\u00e9 pokra\u010dovat ve p\u0159est\u0159elce s USA a Izraelem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Donald Trump \u010del\u00ed n\u011bkolika dilemat\u016fm\u2026 Americk\u00e1 ekonomika za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 sl\u00e1bnout, co\u017e je doprov\u00e1zeno rostouc\u00ed nespokojenost\u00ed ve\u0159ejnosti s prudce rostouc\u00edmi cenami benzinu. Neexistuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 sch\u016fdn\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 mo\u017enosti, jak dos\u00e1hnout zm\u011bny re\u017eimu v \u00cdr\u00e1nu nebo donutit \u00cdr\u00e1n k p\u0159ijet\u00ed americk\u00fdch po\u017eadavk\u016f. Americk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby kritick\u00fdch zbra\u0148ov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f by se d\u00e1le vy\u010derpaly, pokud by USA obnovily sv\u00e9 leteck\u00e9 a raketov\u00e9 \u00fatoky na \u00cdr\u00e1n, a \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 odveta proti americk\u00fdm a izraelsk\u00fdm c\u00edl\u016fm by zp\u016fsobila zna\u010dn\u00e9 \u0161kody. Dokud budou USA pokra\u010dovat v \u00fatoc\u00edch na \u00cdr\u00e1n, jejich vztahy s Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou se budou d\u00e1le zhor\u0161ovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Skute\u010dn\u00e1 hrozba pro USA nen\u00ed vojensk\u00e1, ale ekonomick\u00e1. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed blok\u00e1da Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu p\u0159edstavuje pro sv\u011bt bezprecedentn\u00ed ekonomickou hrozbu. Americk\u00e9 pokusy o jej\u00ed zvl\u00e1dnut\u00ed jen zhor\u0161\u00ed situaci, kter\u00e1 hroz\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomickou katastrofou.<\/span><\/p>\n

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surovina<\/span><\/th>\nP\u0159ibli\u017en\u00fd pod\u00edl Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu na sv\u011btov\u00e9 produkci (2025)<\/span><\/th>\nPozn\u00e1mky<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Ropa (surov\u00e1 ropa a kondenz\u00e1t)<\/span><\/td>\n~32 % (oblast Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu\/Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu)<\/span><\/td>\nDominuj\u00ed nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed producentsk\u00e9 zem\u011b (Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, Ir\u00e1k, \u00cdr\u00e1n, Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty, Kuvajt); ty p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b t\u0159etinu sv\u011btov\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LNG<\/span><\/td>\n~20 % (hlavn\u011b Katar; Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv jako celek ~20\u201322 %)<\/span><\/td>\nKatar je dominantn\u00edm producentem v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu a jedn\u00edm z p\u0159edn\u00edch sv\u011btov\u00fdch v\u00fdvozc\u016f LNG.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
mo\u010dovina<\/span><\/td>\nV\u00fdznamn\u00fd (golf ~36 % sv\u011btov\u00e9ho exportu; pod\u00edl na produkci men\u0161\u00ed, ale st\u00e1le v\u00fdznamn\u00fd)<\/span><\/td>\nSt\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu (\u00cdr\u00e1n, Katar, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie) jsou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm sv\u011btov\u00fdm v\u00fdvozcem mo\u010doviny.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
s\u00edra<\/span><\/td>\n44 % celosv\u011btov\u00e9 produkce s\u00edry<\/span><\/td>\nMezi aplikace s\u00edry pat\u0159\u00ed: v\u00fdroba fosf\u00e1tov\u00fdch hnojiv (60\u201370 % celosv\u011btov\u00e9 popt\u00e1vky po kyselin\u011b s\u00edrov\u00e9), zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed rud (lou\u017een\u00ed m\u011bdi, niklu, kobaltu), rafinace ropy, \u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed polovodi\u010dov\u00fdch desti\u010dek (pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdch spole\u010dnostmi TSMC, Intel a Samsung), v\u00fdroba bateri\u00ed a farmaceutick\u00fd pr\u016fmysl.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
h\u00e9lium<\/span><\/td>\n~33 % (hlavn\u011b Katar)<\/span><\/td>\nKatar je druh\u00fdm nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm producentem na sv\u011bt\u011b po USA.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hlin\u00edk (prim\u00e1rn\u00ed)<\/span><\/td>\n~8\u20139 % (chaty v zem\u00edch GCC\/Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu)<\/span><\/td>\nSpojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty, Bahrajn, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie a Katar jsou d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdmi producenty mimo \u010c\u00ednu.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n usiluje o diplomatick\u00e9 kontakty se Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed, Katarem a Kuvajtem, aby obnovil v\u00fdvoz t\u011bchto surovin do sv\u011bta v r\u00e1mci \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 dohody o priorit\u00e1ch pro boj s terorismem (PGSA). Pokud Katar a Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie uzav\u0159ou s \u00cdr\u00e1nem dohodu, americk\u00fd vliv v regionu se zmen\u0161\u00ed. Pokud dojde ke glob\u00e1ln\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed krizi spojen\u00e9 s t\u011b\u017ekou reces\u00ed, ne-li k depresi, budou USA pod obrovsk\u00fdm tlakem, aby s \u00cdr\u00e1nem dos\u00e1hly dohody, kter\u00e1 obnov\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed obchod a dod\u00e1vky z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 v ruce hlavn\u00ed trumf \u2013 Trump nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Larry C. Johnson<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jak jsem nast\u00ednil ve sv\u00e9m posledn\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nku, n\u011bkdo z Trumpovy administrativy, kdo byl informov\u00e1n o…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":106197,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[38,1503,452,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106196"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=106196"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106196\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/106197"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=106196"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=106196"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=106196"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}