{"id":106177,"date":"2026-05-09T06:45:29","date_gmt":"2026-05-09T04:45:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=106177"},"modified":"2026-05-09T06:45:29","modified_gmt":"2026-05-09T04:45:29","slug":"uriel-araujo-presuny-americkych-raket-na-filipinach-zvysuji-sazky-ohledne-tchaj-wanu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/09\/uriel-araujo-presuny-americkych-raket-na-filipinach-zvysuji-sazky-ohledne-tchaj-wanu\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: P\u0159esuny americk\u00fdch raket na Filip\u00edn\u00e1ch zvy\u0161uj\u00ed s\u00e1zky ohledn\u011b Tchaj-wanu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 cvi\u010den\u00ed v Balikatanu jsou p\u0159\u00edkladem hlub\u0161\u00ed transformace prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed v Asii. Washingtonsk\u00e9 rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed protilodn\u00edch raketov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f pobl\u00ed\u017e Tchaj-wanu spolu s roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed se vojenskou spoluprac\u00ed s Filip\u00ednami a Japonskem p\u0159i\u017eivuje \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 obavy z obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed. Rostouc\u00ed militarizace Tchaj-wanu nyn\u00ed s sebou nese velk\u00e1 rizika pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed stabilitu a dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce v dostate\u010dn\u011b nestabiln\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tchajwansk\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry vypadla z glob\u00e1ln\u00edho centra pozornosti uprost\u0159ed blok\u00e1dy Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, exploz\u00ed a v\u0161ech obav ohledn\u011b ropy, kter\u00e9 v sou\u010dasnosti\u00a0<\/span>su\u017euj\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee se Washington a Teher\u00e1n op\u011bt\u00a0<\/span>nebezpe\u010dn\u011b bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 konfrontaci, mnoho pozorovatel\u016f se mohlo domn\u00edvat, \u017ee indicko-pacifick\u00fd prostor tak\u0159\u00edkaj\u00edc do\u010dasn\u011b utichl. A ti\u0161e se stup\u0148uje dal\u0161\u00ed geopolitick\u00e1 krize: nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj se t\u00fdk\u00e1 Tchaj-wanu a zahrnuje Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a Filip\u00edny (plus Japonsko). To si zaslou\u017e\u00ed pe\u010dliv\u00e9 zkoum\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

USA a Filip\u00edny zah\u00e1jily v podstat\u011b dosud nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ro\u010dn\u00edk (prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edch) ka\u017edoro\u010dn\u00edch vojensk\u00fdch cvi\u010den\u00ed Balikatan, kter\u00fdch se \u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159es 17 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0po boku sil ze spojeneck\u00fdch zem\u00ed, jako je\u00a0<\/span>Japonsko<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>Austr\u00e1lie<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Je\u0161t\u011b znepokojiv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nasadily\u00a0<\/span>protilodn\u00ed raketov\u00fd syst\u00e9m NMESIS<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v Batanes, strategicky citliv\u00e9m filip\u00ednsk\u00e9m ostrovn\u00edm \u0159et\u011bzci le\u017e\u00edc\u00edm pobl\u00ed\u017e\u00a0<\/span>Luzonsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0: jedn\u00e1 se o jeden z\u00a0<\/span>kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch<\/span><\/a>\u00a0n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch koridor\u016f v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b jak\u00e9koli tchajwansk\u00e9 nouze.<\/span><\/p>\n

Syst\u00e9m pro zastaven\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstupu expedi\u010dn\u00edch lod\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u011bchoty (\u00a0<\/span>NMESIS<\/span><\/a>\u00a0) je speci\u00e1ln\u011b\u00a0<\/span>navr\u017een<\/span><\/a>\u00a0tak, aby znemo\u017enil nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9mu n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvu p\u0159\u00edstup v napaden\u00fdch n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch prost\u0159ed\u00edch. V praxi toto nasazen\u00ed jasn\u011b a jednodu\u0161e signalizuje, \u017ee se Washington opera\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ipravuje na mo\u017enost konfliktu souvisej\u00edc\u00edho s Tchaj-wanem, kter\u00fd zahrnuje n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed zastaven\u00ed a v\u00e1lku proti p\u0159\u00edstupu v bl\u00edzkosti \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 periferie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed divu, \u017ee Peking vn\u00edm\u00e1 tento v\u00fdvoj jako dal\u0161\u00ed krok v konsolidaci architektury zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed veden\u00e9 USA kolem sebe. \u010c\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed analytici st\u00e1le v\u00edce vn\u00edmaj\u00ed Filip\u00edny jako platformu pro p\u0159edsunutou opera\u010dn\u00ed operaci americk\u00e9 s\u00edly v indicko-pacifick\u00e9m regionu. Tyto obavy jsou jen umocn\u011bny skute\u010dnost\u00ed, \u017ee Washington ji\u017e v t\u00e9to zemi nasadil raketov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my Typhon \u2013 a tento t\u00fdden \u00fadajn\u011b provedl prvn\u00ed odpal\u00a0<\/span>raket Tomahawk<\/span><\/a>\u00a0z platformy na filip\u00ednsk\u00e9 p\u016fd\u011b (b\u011bhem prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edch cvi\u010den\u00ed Balikatan). To, co bylo p\u016fvodn\u011b prezentov\u00e1no jako do\u010dasn\u00e9 nasazen\u00ed, se nyn\u00ed vyvinulo v opera\u010dn\u00ed testov\u00e1n\u00ed raket p\u0159\u00edmo na filip\u00ednsk\u00e9m boji\u0161ti. Spolu s paraleln\u00edmi raketov\u00fdmi cvi\u010den\u00edmi za \u00fa\u010dasti\u00a0<\/span>japonsk\u00fdch sil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0je poselstv\u00ed dostate\u010dn\u011b jasn\u00e9: z pohledu \u010c\u00edny se Manila st\u00e1le v\u00edce st\u00e1v\u00e1 kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm centrem americk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch operac\u00ed zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdch na zadr\u017een\u00ed Pekingu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 si vzpomeneme, \u017ee b\u011bhem Bidenov\u00fdch let Washington opakovan\u011b testoval hranice Pekingu pod heslem \u201eodstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c a \u201estrategick\u00e9ho uji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed\u201c. Nejzn\u00e1m\u011bj\u0161\u00ed epizodou byla\u00a0<\/span>n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bva b\u00fdval\u00e9 p\u0159edsedkyn\u011b Sn\u011bmovny reprezentant\u016f Nancy Pelosiov\u00e9 na Tchaj-wanu v roce 2022<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kter\u00e1 spustila rozs\u00e1hl\u00e1 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 cvi\u010den\u00ed kolem ostrova a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zah\u00e1jila novou \u00e9ru otev\u0159en\u011b militarizovan\u00e9ho boje na hranici hranic v Tchajwansk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak jsem\u00a0<\/span>argumentoval<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, v roce 2024 vlivn\u00e9 kruhy v USA up\u0159ednost\u0148ovaly dlouhodobou strategii destabilizace sv\u00e9ho asijsk\u00e9ho rivala prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm tlaku na jeho geopolitickou periferii, v\u010detn\u011b Tchaj-wanu. Ostrov se tak stal jakousi strategickou p\u00e1kou v \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed americko-\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 rivalit\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

V roce 2022 jsem\u00a0<\/span>poznamenal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee jak\u00fdkoli konflikt na Tchaj-wanu by se mohl rychle roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it za hranice samotn\u00e9ho ostrova a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b by do n\u011bj mohl zat\u00e1hnout akt\u00e9ry z \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho indicko-pacifick\u00e9ho a dokonce i him\u00e1lajsk\u00e9ho prostoru.\u00a0<\/span>Takov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, i kdy\u017e je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd, by nem\u011bl b\u00fdt snadno zavrhov\u00e1n: sou\u010dasn\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 cvi\u010den\u00ed by mohla odhalit hlub\u0161\u00ed strategickou transformaci prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed v Asii.<\/span><\/p>\n

Filip\u00edny pod veden\u00edm prezidenta Marcose Jr. v\u00fdrazn\u011b\u00a0<\/span>roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ily<\/span><\/a>\u00a0vojenskou spolupr\u00e1ci s Washingtonem a v r\u00e1mci Dohody o pos\u00edlen\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ci (\u00a0<\/span>EDCA<\/span><\/a>\u00a0) tak\u00e9 poskytly Americe \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup k z\u00e1kladn\u00e1m. Mnoho z t\u011bchto za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed se nach\u00e1z\u00ed na severn\u00edch filip\u00ednsk\u00fdch \u00fazem\u00edch s v\u00fdhledem na Tchaj-wan. Z pohledu Pekingu to op\u011bt d\u00e1le roz\u0161i\u0159uje vojensk\u00fd oblouk veden\u00fd USA, tedy americk\u00fd takzvan\u00fd\u00a0p\u0159\u00edstup \u201e\u00a0<\/span>prvn\u00edho ostrovn\u00edho \u0159et\u011bzce \u201c.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Japonsko mezit\u00edm tak\u00e9 p\u0159eb\u00edr\u00e1 explicitn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vojenskou roli v pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed pro p\u0159\u00edpad nouze souvisej\u00edc\u00ed s Tchaj-wanem. V\u00fd\u0161e \u200b\u200bzm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e1 \u00fa\u010dast Japonska na raketov\u00fdch cvi\u010den\u00edch po boku Washingtonu a Manily signalizuje zrychluj\u00edc\u00ed se odklon Tokia od jeho tradi\u010dn\u00edho pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho postoje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jin\u00fdmi slovy: tchajwansk\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka se st\u00e1le v\u00edce multilateralizuje. Tento bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed spor mezi USA a \u010c\u00ednou se vyv\u00edj\u00ed v region\u00e1ln\u00ed vojenskou architekturu zahrnuj\u00edc\u00ed Filip\u00edny, Japonsko, Austr\u00e1lii a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b i partnery napojen\u00e9 na NATO (i uprost\u0159ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>krize<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Atlantick\u00e9 aliance ). Jak jsem\u00a0<\/span>psal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, NATO se ji\u017e dlouho sna\u017e\u00ed o trvalej\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtomnost v Indo-Pacifiku pod z\u00e1minkou obrany tzv. \u201emezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho \u0159\u00e1du zalo\u017een\u00e9ho na pravidlech\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nebezpe\u010d\u00ed zde nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 jen v \u00famysln\u00e9 eskalaci, ale v logice samotn\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f. Jakmile se v regionu zako\u0159en\u00ed raketov\u00e9 baterie, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed prost\u0159edky, logistick\u00e9 koridory a spole\u010dn\u00e9 velitelsk\u00e9 struktury, pr\u00e1h krize se rapidn\u011b sni\u017euje. Vojen\u0161t\u00ed pl\u00e1nova\u010di za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed uva\u017eovat v term\u00ednech opera\u010dn\u00edch oken, \u00fazk\u00fdch m\u00edst a preventivn\u00edch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f. Vid\u011bli jsme, jak se to d\u011bje\u00a0<\/span>ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Luzonsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv je v tomto ohledu obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd: jak\u00e1koli blok\u00e1da nebo konflikt t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se Tchaj-wanu by se t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b soust\u0159edil na n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed kontrolu kolem tohoto koridoru. Rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00edm protilodn\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f v Batanes atlantick\u00e1 supervelmoc efektivn\u011b signalizuje, \u017ee m\u00e1 v \u00famyslu \u010delit \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edm pohyb\u016fm pr\u00e1v\u011b v tomto prostoru. A proto by reakce Pekingu mohla b\u00fdt ostr\u00e1. Pro \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 strat\u00e9gy se tato ot\u00e1zka st\u00e1le v\u00edce podob\u00e1 obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed. Nen\u00ed divu: od Jiho\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e po Guam, od Japonska po Filip\u00edny, \u010c\u00edna vn\u00edm\u00e1 roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed se s\u00ed\u0165 americk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch tlakov\u00fdch bod\u016f, jejich\u017e c\u00edlem je omezit jej\u00ed svobodu man\u00e9vrov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

To v\u0161e se odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 v dob\u011b, kdy je velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st sv\u011bta rozptylov\u00e1na kriz\u00ed na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b. Tchaj-wan v\u0161ak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 jednou ze struktur\u00e1ln\u011b nejnebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch geopolitick\u00fdch ar\u00e9n na planet\u011b. Koneckonc\u016f, Tchaj-wan le\u017e\u00ed v srdci polovodi\u010dov\u00e9ho\u00a0<\/span>pr\u016fmyslu a\u00a0<\/span><\/a>dodavatelsk\u00e9ho \u0159et\u011bzce<\/span><\/a>\u00a0pokro\u010dil\u00fdch technologi\u00ed\u00a0. Jak\u00e9koli v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed naru\u0161en\u00ed v t\u00e9to oblasti by vyvolalo \u0161okov\u00e9 vlny prakticky ve v\u0161ech pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00edch po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b, od infrastruktury um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence a\u017e po automobilovou v\u00fdrobu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jin\u00fdmi slovy, \u00fazemn\u00ed spor Tchaj-wanu p\u0159edstavuje tak\u00e9 syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 riziko pro samotnou glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku. A pr\u00e1v\u011b proto by sou\u010dasn\u00e1 militarizace kolem ostrova m\u011bla znepokojit tv\u016frce politik v\u0161ude na sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dne\u0161n\u00ed sv\u011bt je u\u017e tak dost nestabiln\u00ed: nepokoje na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, energetick\u00e1 nejistota, celn\u00ed konflikty a eskalace konkurence mezi velmocemi. Otev\u0159en\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed velk\u00e9 fronty ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii by nejen \u201ezadr\u017eelo\u201c asijskou supervelmoc. Mohlo by to mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed syst\u00e9m posunout do mnohem nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed f\u00e1ze.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 cvi\u010den\u00ed v Balikatanu jsou p\u0159\u00edkladem hlub\u0161\u00ed transformace prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed v Asii. Washingtonsk\u00e9 rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed protilodn\u00edch…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":106178,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[3986,349,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106177"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=106177"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106177\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/106178"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=106177"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=106177"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=106177"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}