{"id":106145,"date":"2026-05-09T00:23:12","date_gmt":"2026-05-08T22:23:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=106145"},"modified":"2026-05-08T11:24:01","modified_gmt":"2026-05-08T09:24:01","slug":"klimaticky-panel-osn-mlcky-priznava-ze-jeho-scenare-soudneho-dne-byly-nepravdepodobne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/09\/klimaticky-panel-osn-mlcky-priznava-ze-jeho-scenare-soudneho-dne-byly-nepravdepodobne\/","title":{"rendered":"Klimatick\u00fd panel OSN ml\u010dky p\u0159izn\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee jeho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e soudn\u00e9ho dne byly \u201enepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9\u201c"},"content":{"rendered":"
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IPCC zve\u0159ejnil novou generaci klimatick\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f \u2013 a v jejich drobn\u00e9m p\u00edsmu se skr\u00fdv\u00e1 pozoruhodn\u00e9 p\u0159izn\u00e1n\u00ed: extr\u00e9mn\u00ed oteplovac\u00ed trendy, kter\u00e9 po desetilet\u00ed dominovaly v\u00fdzkumu klimatu, politice a medi\u00e1ln\u00edmu pokryt\u00ed, nikdy nebyly skute\u010dn\u011b v\u011brohodn\u00e9. Chv\u00edli trvalo, ne\u017e si toho lid\u00e9 v\u0161imli, proto\u017ee se o tom v mainstreamov\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00edch sotva n\u011bkdo obt\u011b\u017eoval informovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eMezivl\u00e1dn\u00ed panel pro zm\u011bnu klimatu (IPCC) pr\u00e1v\u011b zve\u0159ejnil novou generaci klimatick\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f,\u201c\u00a0<\/span>napsal analytik v\u011bdeck\u00e9 politiky Roger Pielke Jr.<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a ozna\u010dil to za \u201evelkou zpr\u00e1vu\u201c, \u017ee byly eliminov\u00e1ny nejextr\u00e9mn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, kter\u00e9 po mnoho desetilet\u00ed dominovaly v\u00fdzkumu klimatu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br byl jasn\u00fd: \u201eIPCC a \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdzkumn\u00e1 komunita nyn\u00ed p\u0159ipustily, \u017ee sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, kter\u00e9 dominovaly v\u00fdzkumu, hodnocen\u00ed a politice v oblasti klimatu v posledn\u00edch dvou hodnot\u00edc\u00edch cyklech IPCC, jsou nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9. Popisuj\u00ed nemo\u017enou budoucnost.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Po v\u00edce ne\u017e deset let tvo\u0159ily tyto \u201enemo\u017en\u00e9 budoucnosti\u201c p\u00e1te\u0159 apokalyptick\u00e9 klimatick\u00e9 komunikace \u2013 t\u00e1n\u00ed pol\u00e1rn\u00edch ledovc\u016f, zaplaven\u00e1 pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed, masov\u00e9 vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed, rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 ne\u00farody a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed hlad, v\u017edy bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed a v\u017edy pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e9 jako ospravedln\u011bn\u00ed pro okam\u017eit\u00e1, ekonomicky transforma\u010dn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed k odvr\u00e1cen\u00ed katastrofy, kter\u00e1 se nyn\u00ed jev\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e jako sci-fi ne\u017e realistick\u00e1 projekce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nov\u00fd r\u00e1mec IPCC ofici\u00e1ln\u011b sni\u017euje zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed \u201eVYSOK\u00dd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u201c z o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9ho v\u00fdsledku na \u201epr\u016fzkumn\u00fd my\u0161lenkov\u00fd experiment, nikoli projekci\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto je v\u00fdznamn\u00fd institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fastup.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pielke poznamenal, \u017ee p\u0159edchoz\u00ed r\u00e1mec neobsahoval \u201e\u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 systematick\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed o posouzen\u00ed v\u011brohodnosti sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f\u201c, co\u017e znamenalo, \u017ee ty nejd\u011bsiv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed cesty mohly dominovat politick\u00e9 debat\u011b po cel\u00e1 l\u00e9ta, ani\u017e by kdokoli provedl z\u00e1kladn\u00ed kontrolu reality.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eDnes je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, \u017ee skupina s ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed odpov\u011bdnost\u00ed za v\u00fdvoj klimatick\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f pro IPCC a \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdzkumnou komunitu nyn\u00ed p\u0159iznala, \u017ee sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, kter\u00e9 dominovaly v\u00fdzkumu, hodnocen\u00ed a politice v oblasti klimatu v posledn\u00edch dvou hodnot\u00edc\u00edch cyklech, jsou nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9. Popisuj\u00ed nemo\u017enou budoucnost.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Je pozoruhodn\u00e9, \u017ee revidovan\u00fd r\u00e1mec byl technicky p\u0159ijat ji\u017e v roce 2021, ale do pov\u011bdom\u00ed ve\u0159ejnosti se dostal a\u017e nyn\u00ed, proto\u017ee byly provedeny odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed technick\u00e9 a institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bny. A je legitimn\u00ed ot\u00e1zkou pro\u010d. Politick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky t\u011bchto \u201enemo\u017en\u00fdch budoucnost\u00ed\u201c byly velmi re\u00e1ln\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Chris Morrison z Daily Sceptic\u00a0:<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u016fle\u017eitost tohoto zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed o nepravd\u011bpodobnosti nelze p\u0159ece\u0148ovat. Znamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee prakticky ka\u017ed\u00fd alarmistick\u00fd titulek o klimatu a \u010dl\u00e1nek v mainstreamov\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00edch za posledn\u00edch 15 let je bezcenn\u00fd. Vysv\u011btluje to tak\u00e9, pro\u010d rostouc\u00ed skupina skeptick\u00fdch koment\u00e1tor\u016f odm\u00edt\u00e1 politick\u00fd koncept \u201ezaveden\u00e9\u201c v\u011bdy a provedla rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 protianal\u00fdzy. S minim\u00e1ln\u00edm investigativn\u00edm skepticismem lze mnoho z t\u011bchto p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh\u016f vn\u00edmat jako ur\u00e1\u017eku pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 lidsk\u00e9 inteligence.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se p\u0159edpoklady RCP8.5 zavedou do po\u010d\u00edta\u010dov\u00fdch model\u016f, vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed politicky v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky, kter\u00e9 nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee teplota do roku 2100 vzroste p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 4 \u00b0C ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s \u00farovn\u00ed z let 1850\u20131900 \u2013 tedy t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o 3 \u00b0C v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch 80 letech. Pouze ty nejextr\u00e9mn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hlasy by otev\u0159en\u011b prosazovaly takov\u00e9 kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed, a proto aktivisti\u010dt\u00ed v\u011bdci ti\u0161e za\u010dle\u0148uj\u00ed nerealistick\u00e9 p\u0159edpoklady do sv\u00fdch model\u016f, aby vytvo\u0159ili dramatick\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1nik RCP8.5 byl p\u0159edznamen\u00e1n ji\u017e v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce, kdy prezident Trump v\u00fdkonn\u00fdm na\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm s n\u00e1zvem \u201eObnova v\u011bdy zlat\u00e9ho standardu\u201c fakticky zak\u00e1zal pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed tohoto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e v\u011bdci v americk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed spr\u00e1v\u011b. Na\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed rovn\u011b\u017e uv\u00e1d\u011blo, \u017ee \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edm nerealistick\u00fdm p\u0159edpokladem RCP8.5 bylo, \u017ee spot\u0159eba uhl\u00ed do konce stolet\u00ed p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed skute\u010dn\u011b dostupn\u00e9 z\u00e1soby.<\/span><\/p>\n

Klimatolog Zeke Hausfather tehdy odm\u00edtl obvin\u011bn\u00ed Trumpovy administrativy s t\u00edm, \u017ee v\u00fdzkumn\u00e1 komunita se ji\u017e posunula d\u00e1l. Pielke v\u0161ak toto tvrzen\u00ed vyvr\u00e1til a pouk\u00e1zal na to, \u017ee mezi lety 2018 a 2021 bylo publikov\u00e1no p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 17 000 v\u011bdeck\u00fdch prac\u00ed s vyu\u017eit\u00edm RCP8.5, oproti 16 900 v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch t\u0159ech letech. \u201eObrovsk\u00fd posun,\u201c poznamenal ironicky.<\/span><\/p>\n

RCP8.5 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dal vysok\u00e9 emise CO\u2082, kter\u00e9 by vedly k radia\u010dn\u00edmu p\u016fsoben\u00ed 8,5 wattu na metr \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00ed. Nov\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e slou\u017e\u00ed jako vod\u00edtko pro po\u010d\u00edta\u010dov\u00e9 modely, kter\u00e9 zase tvo\u0159\u00ed z\u00e1klad pro nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed sedm\u00e9 hodnot\u00edc\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy IPCC. Pielke odhaduje, \u017ee nov\u00fd vysoce rizikov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 povede k oteplen\u00ed o p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 3 \u00b0C do roku 2100 \u2013 m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e d\u0159\u00edve p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fdch 3,9 \u00b0C, ale st\u00e1le nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9 oteplen\u00ed o 1,8 \u00b0C za m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 80 let.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto nov\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e samoz\u0159ejm\u011b z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed pouh\u00fdmi p\u0159edpoklady a na z\u00e1klad\u011b historick\u00fdch dat o nasycen\u00ed atmosf\u00e9ry plyny za 600 milion\u016f let st\u00e1le v\u00fdrazn\u011b nadhodnocuj\u00ed oteplovac\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinek stopov\u00fdch plyn\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Klimatick\u00e1 zm\u011bna byla po l\u00e9ta prezentov\u00e1na jako existen\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1vod s \u010dasem a navzdory \u010detn\u00fdm ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdm p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00edm panika neustala.<\/span><\/p>\n

V roce 2019 americk\u00e1 politi\u010dka Alexandria Ocasio-Cortezov\u00e1 varovala, \u017ee pokud se nevy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed klimatick\u00fd probl\u00e9m, planeta bude zni\u010dena b\u011bhem pouh\u00fdch 12 let.<\/span><\/p>\n

V roce 2023 Bernie Sanders prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee zm\u011bna klimatu je \u201enejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hrozbou pro na\u0161i zemi a cel\u00e9 lidstvo\u201c a varoval, \u017ee bez okam\u017eit\u00fdch kolektivn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed bude kvalita \u017eivota budouc\u00edch generac\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u011b ohro\u017eena.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto opakovan\u00e9 zd\u016fraz\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed nal\u00e9hav\u00e9 pot\u0159eby jednat vedlo k masivn\u00edm v\u00fddaj\u016fm a dalekos\u00e1hl\u00fdm politick\u00fdm opat\u0159en\u00edm. Do projekt\u016f obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f energie proudily miliardy dolar\u016f da\u0148ov\u00fdch poplatn\u00edk\u016f, zat\u00edmco nov\u00e1 na\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161ila n\u00e1klady pro ob\u010dany a omezila jejich mo\u017enosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

V roce 2020 podepsal kalifornsk\u00fd guvern\u00e9r Gavin Newsom v\u00fdkonn\u00e9 na\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed o postupn\u00e9m vy\u0159azen\u00ed vozidel na benz\u00ednov\u00fd pohon do roku 2035. O dva roky pozd\u011bji n\u00e1sledovala guvern\u00e9rka New Yorku Kathy Hochulov\u00e1 s podobn\u00fdmi na\u0159\u00edzen\u00edmi, kter\u00e1 stanovila rostouc\u00ed kv\u00f3ty pro vozidla s nulov\u00fdmi emisemi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato opat\u0159en\u00ed byla prezentov\u00e1na jako nezbytn\u00e1 reakce na sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, kter\u00e9 nyn\u00ed samotn\u00fd IPCC pova\u017euje za nere\u00e1ln\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Klimatick\u00fd alarmismus se vyvinul v komplexn\u00ed politick\u00fd a finan\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9m \u2013 s dotacemi, z\u00e1jmov\u00fdmi skupinami, medi\u00e1ln\u00edmi narativy a regula\u010dn\u00edmi programy zalo\u017een\u00fdmi na p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee lidstvo m\u00e1 jen omezen\u00e9 \u010dasov\u00e9 okno na to, aby zabr\u00e1nilo kolapsu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eExtr\u00e9mn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, kter\u00e9 jsou nyn\u00ed pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9 [\u2026], nejsou jen akademick\u00e9 konstrukty,\u201c vysv\u011btluje Pielke. \u201eJsou zakotveny v politik\u00e1ch a regulac\u00edch nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch ekonomik, nach\u00e1zej\u00ed se v kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch multilater\u00e1ln\u00edch instituc\u00edch a pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed se v klimatick\u00fdch z\u00e1t\u011b\u017eov\u00fdch testech, kter\u00e9 ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed stovky miliard dolar\u016f bankovn\u00edho kapit\u00e1lu.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato realita by m\u011bla vyvolat pobou\u0159en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve\u0159ejnost je po l\u00e9ta bombardov\u00e1na nejhor\u0161\u00edmi mo\u017en\u00fdmi sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i, kter\u00e9 ovliv\u0148ovaly politick\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed, ospravedl\u0148ovaly masivn\u00ed v\u00fddaje a sm\u011brovaly enormn\u00ed toky kapit\u00e1lu \u2013 to v\u0161e pod hlavi\u010dkou nal\u00e9havosti a strachu. Pokud se tyto p\u0159edpov\u011bdi uk\u00e1\u017eou jako p\u0159ehnan\u00e9 nebo nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, rozsah nespr\u00e1vn\u00e9 alokace bude obrovsk\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee toto zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed dosud nevyvolalo \u0161irokou protireakci, vypov\u00edd\u00e1 stejn\u011b mnoho jako po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed alarmismus.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyler Durden<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

IPCC zve\u0159ejnil novou generaci klimatick\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f \u2013 a v jejich drobn\u00e9m p\u00edsmu se skr\u00fdv\u00e1 pozoruhodn\u00e9…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":106146,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[873,1503,186],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106145"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=106145"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106145\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/106146"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=106145"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=106145"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=106145"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}