{"id":106125,"date":"2026-05-09T00:11:34","date_gmt":"2026-05-08T22:11:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=106125"},"modified":"2026-05-08T10:32:42","modified_gmt":"2026-05-08T08:32:42","slug":"alastair-crooke-dohodnute-reseni-pro-suverenni-iran-je-prakticky-nemozne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/09\/alastair-crooke-dohodnute-reseni-pro-suverenni-iran-je-prakticky-nemozne\/","title":{"rendered":"Alastair Crooke: Dohodnut\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed pro suver\u00e9nn\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n je prakticky nemo\u017en\u00e9"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
\n
\n

Trump se v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt rozpolcen mezi vyhl\u00eddkou na \u201emasivn\u00ed\u201c vojenskou eskalaci a pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed blok\u00e1dou Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu.<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

P\u0159iveden\u00ed dvou stran k jednac\u00edmu stolu \u2013 nato\u017e t\u0159\u00ed \u2013 s naprosto odli\u0161n\u00fdmi historick\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhy a je\u0161t\u011b men\u0161\u00edm po\u010dtem spole\u010dn\u00fdch rys\u016f p\u0159i formov\u00e1n\u00ed jejich budouc\u00edho n\u00e1rodn\u00edho sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed sotva od sam\u00e9ho za\u010d\u00e1tku vedlo k vz\u00e1jemn\u011b p\u0159ijateln\u00e9mu \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. Na takov\u00fdch \u0161patn\u011b p\u0159ipraven\u00fdch sch\u016fzk\u00e1ch je \u010dasto pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee se obecn\u00fd nedostatek konsensu bude opakovat jen zdlouhav\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tak tomu bylo i v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u201erozhovor\u016f\u201c mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem minul\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc v Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du \u2013 Izrael p\u016fsobil jako z\u00e1stupce \u201ekolektivn\u00ed s\u00edly\u201c usiluj\u00edc\u00ed o \u201evynucen\u00ed konce\u201c (region\u00e1ln\u00ed hegemonie Velk\u00e9ho Izraele) t\u00edm, \u017ee efektivn\u011b po\u017eadoval masivn\u00ed (a neomezenou) region\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fazemn\u00ed kontrolu pro Izrael.<\/span><\/p>\n

Aby takov\u00e9 rozhovory slou\u017eily k n\u011bjak\u00e9mu \u00fa\u010delu, musely by konkretizovat z\u00e1kladn\u00ed dohodu mezi stranami \u2013 pokud se n\u011bjak\u00e1 poda\u0159\u00ed naj\u00edt. Jinak by nejlep\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdsledkem byly neform\u00e1ln\u00ed dohody, kter\u00e9 sice nebudou nikdy formalizovan\u00e9, ale prozat\u00edm mohou slou\u017eit z\u00e1jm\u016fm z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00fdch stran. Takov\u00e1 ujedn\u00e1n\u00ed trvaj\u00ed jen tak dlouho, jak trvaj\u00ed. To je v\u0161e.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mluv\u010d\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho ministerstva zahrani\u010d\u00ed Esmail Baqaei poznamenal, \u017ee se za posledn\u00edch 47 let nahromadila hlubok\u00e1 ned\u016fv\u011bra a podez\u0159\u00edvavost v\u016f\u010di USA:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eNem\u011blo by se o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee v kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 dob\u011b, po mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b krvav\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, v n\u00ed\u017e… \u00cdr\u00e1n bojoval proti dv\u011bma jadern\u011b vyzbrojen\u00fdm re\u017eim\u016fm, dv\u011bma mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b bezskrupul\u00f3zn\u00edm re\u017eim\u016fm, jejich\u017e brutalitu jsme byli sv\u011bdky zlo\u010din\u016f v Gaze a Libanonu za posledn\u00ed dva a p\u016fl roku, s n\u00e1mi rychle dos\u00e1hne dohody.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Aurelien<\/span><\/em>\u00a0stru\u010dn\u011b popisuje slepou uli\u010dku:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eUSA (p\u0159\u00edmo) a Izrael (nep\u0159\u00edmo) cht\u011bj\u00ed oslabit \u00cdr\u00e1n jako funguj\u00edc\u00ed st\u00e1t a pokud mo\u017eno ho zni\u010dit. Pro USA je to pomsta za t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 pades\u00e1t let poni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 za\u010dalo \u00fatokem na americk\u00e9 velvyslanectv\u00ed v Teher\u00e1nu a katastrof\u00e1ln\u00edm selh\u00e1n\u00edm n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 z\u00e1chrann\u00e9 mise \u2013 a tak\u00e9 za \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 pokusy ma\u0159it americkou politiku v Levant\u011b. Pro Izrael je c\u00edlem zni\u010dit jedinou zemi stoj\u00edc\u00ed mezi nimi a jejich dominanc\u00ed v regionu. (USA tento c\u00edl tak\u00e9 zastupuj\u00ed zprost\u0159edkovan\u011b.) \u00cdr\u00e1nci tomu samoz\u0159ejm\u011b cht\u011bj\u00ed zabr\u00e1nit, ale tak\u00e9 cht\u011bj\u00ed konec sankc\u00ed a izolace.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Esmail Baqaei dod\u00e1v\u00e1:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eNa\u0161\u00edm hlavn\u00edm z\u00e1jmem je co nejrychleji dos\u00e1hnout bodu, kdy budeme moci s jistotou prohl\u00e1sit, \u017ee nebezpe\u010d\u00ed v\u00e1lky [proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu] ji\u017e neexistuje.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Nov\u00fd nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u016fdce Mod\u017et\u00e1ba Chamene\u00ed vysv\u011btluje \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 c\u00edle v\u00fdslovn\u00fdm prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eV Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu za\u010dala nov\u00e1 \u00e9ra a americk\u00e1 hegemonie skon\u010dila.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, \u00cdr\u00e1n je odhodl\u00e1n dos\u00e1hnout \u201e\u00fat\u011bku\u201c z \u201eklece\u201c 74 let trvaj\u00edc\u00edho vojensk\u00e9ho obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed USA \u2013 sankc\u00ed, obl\u00e9h\u00e1n\u00ed a politick\u00e9 izolace \u2013 a t\u00edm, jak uvedl nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u016fdce, radik\u00e1ln\u011b zm\u011bnit geopolitickou situaci cel\u00e9ho regionu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Izraelsk\u00fd vojensk\u00fd sociolog Jagil Levy v\u0161ak v \u010dl\u00e1nku v den\u00edku Haarec<\/span><\/em>\u00a0tvrd\u00ed\u00a0, \u017ee chov\u00e1n\u00ed Izraele se po \u00fatoc\u00edch ze 7. \u0159\u00edjna v\u00fdrazn\u011b zm\u011bnilo a\u00a0<\/span>n\u00e1sledn\u011b se vyzna\u010dovalo \u201ep\u0159ijet\u00edm \u201atvrd\u00e9\u2018 verze trval\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti… Ta byla [ve skute\u010dnosti] vn\u00edm\u00e1na jako ji\u017e dosa\u017een\u00e1 [prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm] vojensk\u00e9 p\u0159evahy a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed tolerance\u201c.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\u201eRelativn\u00ed permanentn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost, \u201am\u011bkk\u00e1\u2018 verze, byla [naproti tomu] vn\u00edm\u00e1na jako poz\u016fstatek bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho konceptu, kter\u00fd umo\u017enil \u00fatok Ham\u00e1su [7. \u0159\u00edjna] \u2013 p\u0159esto\u017ee \u00fatok byl zp\u016fsoben izraelsk\u00fdm opomenut\u00edm a nep\u0159edstavoval novou skute\u010dnou hrozbu.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\u201eTrval\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnost\u201c \u2013 term\u00edn, kter\u00fd p\u016fvodn\u011b zavedl historik profesor Dirk Moses \u2013 byla v Izraeli po 7. \u0159\u00edjnu vn\u00edm\u00e1na nejen jako prost\u0159edek k eliminaci bezprost\u0159edn\u00edch hrozeb,\u00a0<\/span>ale i t\u011bch budouc\u00edch:<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\u201eSnaha o nalezen\u00ed trval\u00e9ho \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed nep\u0159ipou\u0161t\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 kompromisy, ani politick\u00e9, ani odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e zahrnuje vyhlazen\u00ed, vyhn\u00e1n\u00ed nebo kontrolu populace vn\u00edman\u00e9 jako hrozba pro bezpe\u010dnost st\u00e1tu.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

(Profesor Dirk Moses vysv\u011btlil, \u017ee term\u00edn \u201etrval\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnost\u201c ve skute\u010dnosti poch\u00e1z\u00ed od Otta Ohlendorfa,\u00a0<\/span>\u201enacistick\u00e9ho v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho zlo\u010dince, kter\u00fd p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e ho Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 v Norimberku ob\u011bsili, [\u0159ekl, \u017ee] z \u017eidovsk\u00fdch d\u011bt\u00ed vyrostli partyz\u00e1ni a nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u00e9 a \u017ee my] mus\u00edme pochopit, \u017ee N\u011bmci necht\u011bj\u00ed jen norm\u00e1ln\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost, ale bezpe\u010dnost trvalou: budovali tis\u00edciletou \u0159\u00ed\u0161i.\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0)<\/span><\/p>\n

Meron Rapoport a Ameer Fakhoury na\u010drt\u00e1vaj\u00ed, jak ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eKoncept \u201atrval\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti\u2018 byl pov\u00fd\u0161en na je\u0161t\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148. U\u017e nesta\u010dilo podniknout tvrd\u00e9 kroky proti v\u016fdc\u016fm, jadern\u00fdm za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm a vojensk\u00fdm c\u00edl\u016fm, jak to u\u010dinil Izrael v \u010dervnu 2025. Tentokr\u00e1t byla c\u00edlem zm\u011bna re\u017eimu \u2013 nejen neutralizace vn\u00edman\u00e9 hrozby,\u00a0<\/span><\/em>ale i p\u0159etv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed samotn\u00e9ho politick\u00e9ho prost\u0159ed\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/strong>\u00a0.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

V\u00edme, \u017ee \u017eidovsk\u00fd historik a u\u010denec Ger\u0161om \u0160olem ji\u017e p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl, \u017ee n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fd sionismus bude p\u016fsobit jako \u201emilitantn\u00ed\u201c, \u201eapokalyptick\u00e9\u201c a \u201eradik\u00e1ln\u00ed\u201c mesianistick\u00e9 hnut\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se sna\u017e\u00ed \u201evynutit si konec [tj. sp\u00e1su]\u201c t\u00edm, \u017ee nap\u0159\u00edklad po\u017eaduje, aby st\u00e1t p\u0159evzal masivn\u00ed \u00fazemn\u00ed kontrolu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno: Scholem, v\u0161eobecn\u011b pova\u017eovan\u00fd za p\u0159edn\u00edho odborn\u00edka na mesianistick\u00fd judaismus, v podstat\u011b p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl obrat Izraele k \u201epermanentn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti\u201c,\u00a0<\/span>nikoli jako \u010dist\u011b bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edmu opat\u0159en\u00ed,<\/span><\/em>\u00a0ale jako n\u00e1stroj militantn\u00edho sionistick\u00e9ho mesianismu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b jsou \u201ehlub\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1jmy\u201c \u00cdr\u00e1nu, Ameriky a Izraele podle v\u0161eho tak vzd\u00e1len\u00e9, jak si lze p\u0159edstavit. Izrael i \u00cdr\u00e1n usiluj\u00ed o z\u00e1sadn\u00ed zm\u011bnu v politick\u00e9 krajin\u011b Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu. Proto lze prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm jedn\u00e1n\u00ed dos\u00e1hnout pouze kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch, omezen\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 by mohla do\u010dasn\u011b uspokojit USA a \u00cdr\u00e1n, ale t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b budou pro Izrael (a jeho lobbisty a hlavn\u00ed d\u00e1rce v USA) nep\u0159ijateln\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

USA nal\u00e9hav\u011b pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed naj\u00edt cestu ven \u2013 a obvykl\u00fdm mechanismem pro to se zdaj\u00ed b\u00fdt jedn\u00e1n\u00ed. Vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed v tradi\u010dn\u00edm slova smyslu by v\u0161ak ve skute\u010dnosti vedla k vn\u00edman\u00e9 kapitulaci USA a, pokud by se prot\u00e1hla, ke katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 katastrof\u011b v d\u016fsledku \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 kontroly nad Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump se dnes zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt rozpolcen mezi vyhl\u00eddkou na \u201emasivn\u00ed\u201c vojenskou eskalaci (prosazovanou frakc\u00ed \u201eIzrael na prvn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b\u201c) v nad\u011bji, \u017ee donut\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n ke kapitulaci, a prodlou\u017eenou (by\u0165 propustnou) blok\u00e1dou Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, kterou prosazuje ministryn\u011b Bessentov\u00e1, co\u017e nazna\u010duje my\u0161lenku dal\u0161\u00ed \u201ev\u011b\u010dn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky\u201c. Ani jedna z mo\u017enost\u00ed nen\u00ed bez hlubok\u00fdch d\u016fsledk\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n na druhou stranu odolal kombinovan\u00e9mu vojensk\u00e9mu tlaku Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a Izraele. Izrael sice nedos\u00e1hl \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9ho ze sv\u00fdch p\u016fvodn\u00edch v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f (kter\u00e9 sahaj\u00ed a\u017e do 28. \u00fanora), a proto se sna\u017e\u00ed tla\u010dit na Trumpa, aby ve v\u00e1lce pokra\u010doval \u2013 v \u201enad\u011bji\u201c, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd st\u00e1t n\u011bjak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem padne.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1sadn\u00edm probl\u00e9mem Trumpa p\u0159i ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem (krom\u011b toho, \u017ee mu jeho ego br\u00e1n\u00ed p\u016fsobit jako \u201epora\u017een\u00fd\u201c) je, \u017ee jeliko\u017e je zav\u00e1z\u00e1n a z\u00e1visl\u00fd na Izraeli a hlavn\u00edch prosionistick\u00fdch d\u00e1rc\u00edch, nen\u00ed schopen u\u010dinit\u00a0<\/span>v\u011brohodn\u00e9<\/span><\/em>\u00a0z\u00e1vazky ohledn\u011b politiky ne\u00fato\u010den\u00ed v\u016f\u010di \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 nebo zru\u0161en\u00ed sankc\u00ed \u2013 kter\u00e9 nedos\u00e1hnou statusu pln\u00e9 dohody.<\/span><\/p>\n

A smluvn\u00ed status nen\u00ed v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b politicky provediteln\u00fd, vzhledem k rozmanitosti a povaze frakc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 vykon\u00e1vaj\u00ed kontrolu nad Kongresem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak by se dal \u00cdr\u00e1n ujistit, \u017ee konflikt skon\u010dil a hrozba budouc\u00edch v\u00e1lek byla odvr\u00e1cena? \u00cdr\u00e1n by se dal uklidnit pouze tehdy, kdyby se na\u0161el zp\u016fsob, jak omezit USA a Izrael v dal\u0161\u00edch kolech v\u00e1lky proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 ale jak by se daly omezit izraelsk\u00e9 pravomoci? Pouze (pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b) zastaven\u00edm finan\u010dn\u00ed, vojensk\u00e9 a zpravodajsk\u00e9 podpory Tel Avivu.<\/span><\/p>\n

A to by znamenalo zaprv\u00e9 \u201erevoluci\u201c v glob\u00e1ln\u00edch struktur\u00e1ln\u00edch vztaz\u00edch mezi USA a Izraelem a zadruh\u00e9 jin\u00e9ho prezidenta.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mohla by alternativou b\u00fdt jak\u00e1si \u010d\u00ednsko-rusk\u00e1 z\u00e1ruka p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 intervence v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 eskalace? Takov\u00e1 vyhl\u00eddka by znamenala novou glob\u00e1ln\u00ed alianci mocnost\u00ed \u2013 ud\u00e1lost, kter\u00e1 se v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b jev\u00ed jako p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e1, vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee USA jsou zapleteny do nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00e9ho druhu a na r\u016fzn\u00fdch \u00farovn\u00edch s \u010c\u00ednou i Ruskem, kter\u00e9 se sp\u00ed\u0161e zintenziv\u0148uj\u00ed ne\u017e ustupuj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n

Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trump se v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt rozpolcen mezi vyhl\u00eddkou na \u201emasivn\u00ed\u201c vojenskou eskalaci a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":106126,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106125"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=106125"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106125\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/106126"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=106125"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=106125"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=106125"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}