{"id":10612,"date":"2022-05-15T01:00:13","date_gmt":"2022-05-14T23:00:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=10612"},"modified":"2022-05-14T17:48:46","modified_gmt":"2022-05-14T15:48:46","slug":"jiri-paroubek-davkovani-nepriznivych-zprav-pro-ceskeho-obcana","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/05\/15\/jiri-paroubek-davkovani-nepriznivych-zprav-pro-ceskeho-obcana\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: D\u00e1vkov\u00e1n\u00ed nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v pro \u010desk\u00e9ho ob\u010dana"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
….aneb, pro\u010d se lidem ne\u0159\u00edk\u00e1 pravda.
\n<\/strong>
\nV \u010desk\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00edch, a to i v odborn\u00fdch kruz\u00edch a v koment\u00e1\u0159\u00edch naprost\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161iny tzv.expert\u016f, chyb\u00ed odvaha k tomu, \u0159\u00edct lidem pravdu, jak to vlastn\u011b vypad\u00e1 s \u010deskou ekonomikou.<\/span>
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n
\n

Ekonomiku ovliv\u0148uje soub\u011bh n\u011bkolika velmi nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Naprost\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch komodit, a\u0165 u\u017e potravin (zj. p\u0161enice), energi\u00ed \u010di kov\u016f zaznamenala meziro\u010dn\u011b n\u00e1r\u016fst cen. \u010casto o des\u00edtky procent. P\u0159isp\u011bla k\u00a0tomu pandemie covidu-19, respektive jej\u00ed ukon\u010den\u00ed, kter\u00e9 znamenalo ur\u010dit\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 o\u017eiven\u00ed. Pro \u010deskou, zpracovatelskou ekonomiku, kter\u00e1 je s\u00a0v\u00fdjimkou uhl\u00ed a p\u0161enice prakticky z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na dovozu v\u0161ech v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch komodit se zvy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edmi se cenami, je to pochopiteln\u011b citeln\u00e1 r\u00e1na.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
      \n
    1. Do\u0161lo k\u00a0naru\u0161en\u00ed dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f v\u00a0glob\u00e1ln\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku (zdaleka se p\u0159itom nejedn\u00e1 jen o \u010dipy v\u00a0automobilov\u00e9m pr\u016fmyslu), \u010d\u00edm\u017e se vytvo\u0159ila zcela nov\u00e1 situace. Sv\u011btov\u00ed v\u00fdrobci si za\u010dali vytv\u00e1\u0159et v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1soby surovin a polotovar\u016f pro v\u00fdrobu, aby udr\u017eeli jej\u00ed plynulost. I to zvy\u0161uje pochopiteln\u011b popt\u00e1vku po surovin\u00e1ch a polotovarech.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
        \n
      1. Ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b trv\u00e1 skoro \u010dtvrt roku v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd konflikt mezi Ruskem a Ukrajinou. Nejistota plynouc\u00ed z\u00a0tohoto konfliktu p\u016fsob\u00ed rovn\u011b\u017e na ceny komodit i hotov\u00fdch v\u00fdrobk\u016f. Prakticky nikdo si neum\u00ed p\u0159edstavit, jak by se dalo uspo\u0159\u00e1dat m\u00edrov\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed na jihu a v\u00fdchod\u011b Ukrajiny, respektive mezi Ruskem a Ukrajinou, aby to respektovalo bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy Ruska i Ukrajiny. Nemluv\u011b o z\u00e1jmech rusk\u00fdch obyvatel t\u00e9to \u010d\u00e1sti Ukrajiny. Je jen opravdu \u0161koda, \u017ee l\u00edd\u0159i Z\u00e1padu, po\u010d\u00ednaje americk\u00fdm prezidentem p\u0159ed zah\u00e1jen\u00edm konfliktu s\u00a0takovou akademickou lehkost\u00ed hovo\u0159ili, \u017ee je pr\u00e1vem ka\u017ed\u00e9ho suver\u00e9nn\u00edho st\u00e1tu vstoupit do jak\u00e9koliv vojensk\u00e9 aliance. Pro Rusko to byl, bohu\u017eel, casus belli. Podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru v\u00e1lka nemus\u00ed trvat dlouho. Ale m\u00edrov\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed bude vlastn\u011b jen p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm mezi ob\u011bma st\u00e1ty a ob\u011bma bloky (tedy mezi Ruskem na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b a Z\u00e1padem na stran\u011b druh\u00e9).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
          \n
        1. Sankce proti Rusku, obl\u00edben\u00e1 metoda pr\u00e1ce zem\u00ed Z\u00e1padu, zd\u00e1 se, tentokr\u00e1t m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed tak trochu mimo ter\u010d. Rusko m\u00e1 toti\u017e na rozd\u00edl od st\u00e1t\u016f jako je \u00cdr\u00e1n \u010di Ir\u00e1k, v\u016f\u010di nim\u017e sankce byly v\u00a0z\u00e1sad\u011b \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9, k\u00a0dispozici \u0161irokou surovinovou i potravinovou b\u00e1zi. Je v z\u00e1sad\u011b autarkn\u00ed ekonomikou….Parf\u00e9my Chanel, boti\u010dky od Diora anebo francouzsk\u00e9 ko\u0148aky vlastn\u011b nepot\u0159ebuje.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          Leto\u0161n\u00ed sklize\u0148 p\u0161enice bude v\u00a0Rusku z\u0159ejm\u011b rekordn\u00ed. A Rusko tak m\u016f\u017ee z\u00e1sobovat p\u0161enic\u00ed i zem\u011b, kam se sv\u00fdm exportem nedos\u00e1hne Ukrajina. Alternativou v\u00fdvozu rusk\u00e9 p\u0161enice je hladomor v\u00a0cel\u00e9 \u0159ad\u011b zem\u00ed Afriky a Asie. Tak\u017ee nepo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1m s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee by byly Z\u00e1padem vyhl\u00e1\u0161eny na v\u00fdvoz rusk\u00e9ho obil\u00ed sankce.<\/p>\n

          Rusko m\u00e1 k\u00a0dispozici dostatek plynu, ropy, jeho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed se nezastav\u00ed, tak jako je tomu na Ukrajin\u011b, j\u00ed\u017e chyb\u00ed pohonn\u00e9 hmoty.<\/p>\n

          To, \u017ee sankce p\u0159inesou ur\u010dit\u00e9 dopady do \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b Rus\u016f, je n\u011bco, na co jsou Rusov\u00e9 ji\u017e zvykl\u00ed. A samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, \u017ee kremel\u0161t\u00ed propagandist\u00e9 to podaj\u00ed jako v\u00fdsledek \u010dinnosti z\u00e1padn\u00edch mocnost\u00ed.<\/p>\n

          \u010cesk\u00e1 ekonomika se pot\u00fdk\u00e1 s\u00a0probl\u00e9my dovozu n\u011bkter\u00fdch komponent pro automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl. Zdra\u017euj\u00ed se energetick\u00e9 suroviny a v ekonomice vlastn\u011b rostou v\u0161echny v\u00fdrobn\u00ed i spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 ceny. Podle ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch statistik u\u017e inflace v\u00a0\u010cR p\u0159es\u00e1hla 13%.<\/p>\n

          Pokud ale chod\u00edte nakupovat do supermarketu, shodnete se se mnou, \u017ee n\u00e1r\u016fst cen oproti lo\u0148sku v z\u00e1kladn\u00edm spot\u0159ebn\u00edm ko\u0161i potravin dos\u00e1huje u\u017e 20 \u2013 25%. A k tomu si p\u0159ipo\u010dteme n\u00e1r\u016fst cen benzinu a nafty o polovinu a vedle toho je\u0161t\u011b neukon\u010den\u00fd r\u016fst cen energi\u00ed….A to v\u0161e p\u0159i jen velmi m\u00edrn\u00e9m r\u016fstu nomin\u00e1ln\u00edch mezd ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch i soukrom\u00fdch zam\u011bstnanc\u016f. To m\u016f\u017ee znamenat pokles \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b ne o 5%, jak se to ji\u017e p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u00ed v\u00a0na\u0161ich mainstreamov\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00edch, ale o 15 \u2013 20%.<\/p>\n

          Prakticky \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 instituce v\u00a0zemi, kter\u00e1 k\u00a0tomu m\u00e1 tak \u0159\u00edkaj\u00edc \u201egeb\u00edry\u201c, od \u010cNB a\u017e po ministerstvo financ\u00ed, zat\u00edm nep\u0159ipou\u0161t\u00ed meziro\u010dn\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd pokles. J\u00e1 se ji\u017e n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f naopak ob\u00e1v\u00e1m, \u017ee letos dojde k\u00a0poklesu \u010desk\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed o 2 \u2013 3%.<\/p>\n

          K\u00a0n\u011bmu p\u0159isp\u011bj\u00ed samoz\u0159ejm\u011b tak\u00e9 probl\u00e9my v\u00a0oblasti ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch zak\u00e1zek, proto\u017ee stavebn\u00ed firmy nebudou schopny dodr\u017eet vysout\u011b\u017een\u00e9 ceny stavebn\u00edch prac\u00ed s\u00a0ohledem na razantn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst cen stavebnin. Je to smutn\u00e9 p\u0159edstaven\u00ed, a hlavn\u011b teprve bude. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, \u017ee hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd pokles, k n\u011bmu\u017e oproti optimistick\u00fdm kalkulacim HDP ministerstvem financ\u00ed dojde (po\u010d\u00edtalo se s jeho meziro\u010dn\u00edm r\u016fstem o 3-4 %), bude znamenat tak\u00e9 pokles p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu o 100 \u2013 120 mld. korun.<\/p>\n

          N\u011bco budou st\u00e1t tak\u00e9 \u201ena\u0161i\u201c Ukrajinci, nebo\u0165 jsme u\u017e de facto akreditovali zat\u00edm t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 350 tis\u00edc ukrajinsk\u00fdch uprchl\u00edk\u016f. V\u00fddaje s\u00a0nimi spojen\u00e9 se mohou v tomto roce pohybovat kolem 100 mld. K\u010d. Ministr financ\u00ed Stanjura je povinn\u011b optimistick\u00fd, kdy\u017e tyto v\u00fddaje odhaduje na polovinu. Zdravotn\u00ed p\u00e9\u010de, \u0161kolstv\u00ed, doprava, soci\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u00e9\u010de atd., to v\u0161e se prom\u00edtne v\u00a0t\u011bch des\u00edtk\u00e1ch miliard, kter\u00e9 n\u00e1s uprchl\u00edci budou st\u00e1t. P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1m, \u017ee n\u00e1m tato suma bude kompenzov\u00e1na Evropskou uni\u00ed.<\/p>\n

          V\u00a0t\u00e9to chv\u00edli, kdy se st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det na tento rok vlastn\u011b rozpad\u00e1, fantaz\u00edruje nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed strana, ODS, o rychl\u00e9m navy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed arm\u00e1dn\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u016f. Z\u00a0leto\u0161n\u00edch 88 mld. na n\u011bjak\u00fdch 150 \u2013 170 mld. K\u010d (podle v\u00fdvoje HDP) v\u00a0roce 2024. Pr\u00fd nutn\u011b pot\u0159ebujeme nakoupit nap\u0159. za zhruba 85 mld. korun 28 americk\u00fdch Fantom\u016f.<\/p>\n

          No, zat\u00edm m\u00e1me dvan\u00e1ct, mo\u017en\u00e1 ji\u017e obstaro\u017en\u00edch, \u0161v\u00e9dsk\u00fdch st\u00edha\u010dek gripen, kter\u00e9 zajistit nebe nad \u010ceskem a kdy\u017e je pot\u0159eba i nad Slovenskem a pobaltsk\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty. K\u00a0\u010demu pot\u0159ebujeme dvaap\u016flkr\u00e1t v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed leteckou s\u00edlu? Snad proto, aby byly americk\u00e9 zbrojovky spokojen\u00e9. Tak ty budou ur\u010dit\u011b spokojen\u00e9, ale n\u00e1m budou prost\u011b v\u00a0rozpo\u010dtu chyb\u011bt pen\u00edze na \u0161kolstv\u00ed, zdravotnictv\u00ed, v\u011bdu, zkr\u00e1tka, na co si vzpomenete. Jedn\u00e1 se o naprosto neodpov\u011bdn\u00e9 rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 a n\u00e1rodohospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 \u00favahy pravicov\u00fdch politik\u016f a ekonom\u016f.<\/p>\n

          Prakticky ka\u017ed\u00e1 pravicov\u00e1 vl\u00e1da v\u00a0t\u00e9to zemi skon\u010dila sv\u00e9 p\u016fsoben\u00ed zata\u017een\u00edm \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky do recese. P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm pak Topol\u00e1nkova a Ne\u010dasova vl\u00e1da se v tomto sm\u011bru „vyznamenaly“. Ale proti tomu, jak skon\u010d\u00ed ekonomicky sou\u010dasn\u00e1 vl\u00e1da, ty konce t\u011bch dvou p\u0159edchoz\u00edch jsou jen bursk\u00fdm o\u0159\u00ed\u0161kem.<\/p>\n

          Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 vl\u00e1da probl\u00e9my \u0159e\u0161it neum\u00ed a nov\u00e9 vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1. Snad by to cht\u011blo si d\u00e1t z\u00e1vazek na dobu evropsk\u00e9ho p\u0159edsednictv\u00ed b\u00fdt l\u00eddrem m\u00edrov\u00e9ho procesu mezi Ukrajinou a Ruskem. Alespo\u0148 jeden z\u00a0t\u011bch problematick\u00fdch faktor\u016f, kter\u00e9 zp\u016fsobuj\u00ed na\u0161e sou\u010dasn\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 probl\u00e9my a pokles \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b \u010desk\u00e9ho obyvatelstva, je pot\u0159eba odstranit. A neok\u0159ikovat ty, alespo\u0148 pro za\u010d\u00e1tek, kte\u0159\u00ed toto prosazuj\u00ed, jako rusk\u00e9 trolly, \u0161v\u00e1by, putinovce apod.<\/p>\n

          Pokud se vl\u00e1da nevzpamatuje, do konce tohoto roku sho\u0159\u00ed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

          Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

          \"\"<\/p>\n

           <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          ….aneb, pro\u010d se lidem ne\u0159\u00edk\u00e1 pravda. V \u010desk\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00edch, a to i v odborn\u00fdch kruz\u00edch…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1907,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[506,59,346,683,750,22,99],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10612"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10612"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10612\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1907"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10612"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10612"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10612"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}