{"id":105987,"date":"2026-05-07T00:18:26","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T22:18:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=105987"},"modified":"2026-05-06T12:54:58","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T10:54:58","slug":"plukovnik-douglas-macgregor-primeri-a-blokada-iranu-budou-mit-nakladne-dusledky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/07\/plukovnik-douglas-macgregor-primeri-a-blokada-iranu-budou-mit-nakladne-dusledky\/","title":{"rendered":"Plukovn\u00edk Douglas Macgregor: P\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed a blok\u00e1da \u00cdr\u00e1nu budou m\u00edt n\u00e1kladn\u00e9 d\u016fsledky"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m hloubkov\u00e9m rozhovoru analyzuje b\u00fdval\u00fd poradce pro obranu a zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku a vysoce vyznamen\u00e1n\u00ed ocen\u011bn\u00fd v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd veter\u00e1n plukovn\u00edk Douglas Macgregor eskalaci krize na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b. Zat\u00edmco se Trumpova administrativa prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm komunik\u00e9 prezidenta, ministra obrany Peta Hegsetha a gener\u00e1la Dana Kainea, p\u0159edsedy Sboru n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edk\u016f \u0161t\u00e1b\u016f, sna\u017e\u00ed v konfliktu s \u00cdr\u00e1nem vykreslit obraz kontroly a s\u00edly, Macgregor nemilosrdn\u011b odhaluje jej\u00ed fas\u00e1du. V\u00fdchoz\u00edm bodem diskuse je jedin\u00e1 d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 statistika: po\u010det lod\u00ed proplouvaj\u00edc\u00edch Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem \u2013 a podle Macgregora toto \u010d\u00edslo kleslo na nulu. \u010cl\u00e1nek osv\u011btluje rozpor mezi ofici\u00e1ln\u00edmi tvrzen\u00edmi a krutou realitou konfliktu, kter\u00fd je ekonomicky i vojensky ve slep\u00e9 uli\u010dce a st\u00e1v\u00e1 se existen\u010dn\u00ed hrozbou pro samotn\u00e9 Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Plukovn\u00edk Douglas Macgregor: Za p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed a blok\u00e1du \u00cdr\u00e1nu bude peklo.\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/pGjhvHh1Hu4?feature=oembed\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Zat\u00edmco z B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu a Pentagonu se oz\u00fdvaj\u00ed optimistick\u00e9 hlasy, vyno\u0159uje se zcela jin\u00fd obraz vojensk\u00e9 reality v konfliktu s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. V pozoruhodn\u011b up\u0159\u00edmn\u00e9m rozhovoru s Danielem Davisem podrobil b\u00fdval\u00fd vysoce vyznamenan\u00fd plukovn\u00edk Douglas Macgregor nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj kolem blok\u00e1dy a fingovan\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu nemilosrdn\u00e9 anal\u00fdze. Jeho z\u00e1v\u011br je alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed: USA jsou uv\u011bzn\u011bny v situaci, kterou si samy zp\u016fsobily, jej\u00ed\u017e d\u016fsledky ovlivn\u00ed nejen Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod, ale cel\u00fd sv\u011bt, a zejm\u00e9na dom\u00e1c\u00ed ekonomiku.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 statistika: Nic u\u017e nefunguje.<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Diskuse za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 jednoduch\u00fdm, ale zdrcuj\u00edc\u00edm zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm. Zat\u00edmco prezident Trump, ministr obrany Hegseth a gener\u00e1l Kaine hovo\u0159\u00ed o \u201eohromuj\u00edc\u00edm\u201c \u00fasp\u011bchu blok\u00e1dy a popisuj\u00ed ji jako \u201ekus oceli\u201c, Macgregor poukazuje na jedinou relevantn\u00ed metriku: \u201eKolik lod\u00ed se dostalo Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem? Odpov\u011b\u010f je dnes velk\u00e1 nula.\u201c T\u011bch n\u011bkolik m\u00e1lo pohyb\u016f, ke kter\u00fdm do\u0161lo, sotva stoj\u00ed za zm\u00ednku. Dokonce i \u00fadajn\u011b \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd doprovod dvou tanker\u016f se uk\u00e1zal jako fale\u0161n\u00fd za\u010d\u00e1tek, proto\u017ee sou\u010dasn\u011b byly napadeny dal\u0161\u00ed dv\u011b lod\u011b. \u201ePrvn\u00ed den, prvn\u00ed hodinu se dva dostali, dva ne,\u201c nam\u00edt\u00e1 Davis. Pr\u016fliv je, tvrd\u00ed Macgregor, de facto uzav\u0159en\u00fd \u2013 ani masivn\u00ed nasazen\u00ed americk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva to nem\u016f\u017ee zm\u011bnit.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Kdo je agresor? Sv\u011bt vzh\u016fru nohama.<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00dast\u0159edn\u00edm prvkem ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed americk\u00e9 propagandy je zobrazov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu jako jedin\u00e9ho agresora. Ministr obrany Hegzet obvi\u0148uje Teher\u00e1n z obt\u011b\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed civiln\u00edch plavidel a z jak\u00e9si formy \u201emezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho vyd\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c. Macgregor tento narativ rozeb\u00edr\u00e1 v n\u011bkolika v\u011bt\u00e1ch: \u201eIzrael zah\u00e1jil v\u00e1lku sv\u00fdmi \u00fatoky na \u00cdr\u00e1n a my jsme ho rychle n\u00e1sledovali.\u201c USA a Izrael jsou skute\u010dn\u00fdmi agresory, kte\u0159\u00ed konflikt vyprovokovali. Tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee necht\u011bj\u00ed boj, je absurdn\u00ed vzhledem k jejich vlastn\u00ed blok\u00e1d\u011b. \u201ePokud \u00cdr\u00e1nci ji\u017e uzav\u0159eli silnici, pro\u010d pot\u0159ebujeme blok\u00e1du?\u201c pt\u00e1 se Macgregor r\u00e9toricky. Cel\u00fd argument je iracion\u00e1ln\u00ed a postr\u00e1d\u00e1 strategii. \u00dadajn\u00e1 osvobozovac\u00ed operace u\u017e d\u00e1vno selhala \u2013 ani o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 masov\u00e9 protesty proti re\u017eimu, ani dekapitace veden\u00ed nedos\u00e1hly po\u017eadovan\u00e9ho \u00fa\u010dinku. M\u00edsto toho \u00cdr\u00e1n reagoval odvetn\u00fdmi \u00fadery a v\u00e1\u017en\u011b po\u0161kodil americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v regionu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u201e\u010cerven\u00fd, b\u00edl\u00fd a modr\u00fd \u0161t\u00edt\u201c \u2013 vojensk\u00e9 zbo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Gener\u00e1l Kaine vykreslil obraz masivn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly, leteck\u00e9 a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed s\u00edly, kter\u00e1 na ji\u017en\u00edm konci silnice vytvo\u0159\u00ed \u201eroz\u0161\u00ed\u0159enou bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00f3nu\u201c. S v\u00edce ne\u017e 100 st\u00edha\u010dkami a v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdmi lod\u011bmi by odrazily \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 drony a motorov\u00e9 \u010dluny. Macgregor nen\u00ed nad\u0161en\u00fd. Poukazuje na bizarn\u00ed roli 82. v\u00fdsadkov\u00e9 divize, kter\u00e1 \u00fadajn\u011b tyto aktivity koordinuje, a nazna\u010duje, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 sp\u00ed\u0161e o politick\u00fd f\u00edkov\u00fd list ne\u017e o vojenskou nutnost.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm kritizuje fyzickou nemo\u017enost dokonal\u00e9ho \u0161t\u00edtu. \u201eHodn\u011b \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed s t\u00edm,\u201c poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 su\u0161e. \u201eNebude to fungovat, pokud nenajdeme zp\u016fsob, jak poru\u0161it z\u00e1kony fyziky a postavit laserov\u00e9 zdi.\u201c \u00cdr\u00e1nci nepot\u0159ebuj\u00ed velk\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 lod\u011b, kter\u00e9 by ochromily lodn\u00ed dopravu. O v\u00fdsledku rozhodne jejich schopnost neust\u00e1le monitorovat ka\u017ed\u00fd kout regionu pomoc\u00ed pozemn\u00edho i vesm\u00edrn\u00e9ho pr\u016fzkumu a zasahovat c\u00edle v re\u00e1ln\u00e9m \u010dase. Americk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo nem\u016f\u017ee zaru\u010dit pr\u016fjezd tankeru. Mimochodem, jedin\u00fdm subjektem, kter\u00fd skute\u010dn\u011b zastavuje dopravu, nen\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n, ale lond\u00fdnsk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost Lloyd&#8217;s. Bez pojistn\u00e9ho kryt\u00ed, kter\u00e9 nyn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inou poskytuj\u00ed samotn\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed st\u00e1ty, se \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 lo\u010f nepohne.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ekonomick\u00e1 \u010dasovan\u00e1 bomba pro USA<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Snad nejv\u00fdbu\u0161n\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st anal\u00fdzy se t\u00fdk\u00e1 ekonomick\u00fdch d\u016fsledk\u016f pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty. Macgregor nal\u00e9hav\u011b varuje p\u0159ed fat\u00e1ln\u00edm sebeklamem. R\u00e9torika Washingtonu m\u016f\u017ee trhy kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b uklidnit \u2013 cena ropy kles\u00e1 \u2013 ale fyzick\u00e1 realita je nevyhnuteln\u011b do\u017eene. Z\u00e1soby pohonn\u00fdch hmot v USA jsou v tomto ro\u010dn\u00edm obdob\u00ed na nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farovni, jak\u00e1 kdy byla zaznamen\u00e1na. \u201eEkonomika b\u011b\u017e\u00ed na levn\u00e9 energii a levn\u00fdch \u00fav\u011brech,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Macgregor. \u201ePokud energie nen\u00ed levn\u00e1, \u00fav\u011br nen\u00ed levn\u00fd.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Vykresluje obraz kask\u00e1dovit\u00e9 krize: Blok\u00e1da vede k rostouc\u00edm cen\u00e1m energi\u00ed, co\u017e p\u0159i\u017eivuje inflaci a zp\u016fsobuje prudk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst v\u00fdnos\u016f st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f. \u201eDlouho jsem si myslel, \u017ee 5 % u desetilet\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f bude hranic\u00ed, kter\u00e1 zp\u016fsob\u00ed zhroucen\u00ed cel\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1. To je nyn\u00ed na dosah. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 konflikt urychluje glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dedolarizaci. \u010c\u00edna, Japonsko a dal\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b se zbavuj\u00ed americk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch pokladni\u010dn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f. \u201eSv\u011bt se bude p\u0159ikl\u00e1n\u011bt k j\u00fcanu. Tam se obchod kon\u010d\u00ed.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jeho progn\u00f3za produkce potravin je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed. \u201e70 % na\u0161ich farm\u00e1\u0159\u016f ji\u017e prohl\u00e1silo, \u017ee si u\u017e nemohou dovolit hnojiva,\u201c varuje Davis v rozhovoru. Rostouc\u00ed ceny a hroz\u00edc\u00ed nedostatek by mohly v USA v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch 60 dnech v\u00e9st ke katastrof\u011b. \u201eVypn\u011bte potravinov\u00e9 l\u00edstky a uvid\u00edte, jak\u00e9 peklo se rozpout\u00e1,\u201c prorokuje Macgregor pochmurn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dv\u011b mo\u017enosti \u2013 a ob\u011b jsou \u0161patn\u00e9.<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Co tedy d\u011blat? Macgregor vid\u00ed pro prezidenta Trumpa pouze dv\u011b cesty a ani jedna z nich nen\u00ed p\u0159ijateln\u00e1. Prvn\u00ed mo\u017enost\u00ed by byl \u00fapln\u00fd \u00fastup: p\u0159iznat, \u017ee vojensk\u00e1 s\u00edla nefunguje, zru\u0161it blok\u00e1du a nechat zbytek sv\u011bta, a\u0165 si d\u011bl\u00e1 svou pr\u00e1ci. To by se rovnalo ve\u0159ejn\u00e9mu pon\u00ed\u017een\u00ed. Druhou mo\u017enost\u00ed je masivn\u00ed eskalace s c\u00edlem zni\u010dit \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd st\u00e1t. Na to v\u0161ak chyb\u00ed zdroje, politick\u00e1 podpora doma i v zahrani\u010d\u00ed a p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm strategick\u00fd pl\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Prezidentsk\u00fd t\u00fdm se mezit\u00edm sna\u017e\u00ed konflikt bagatelizovat jako \u201eminiv\u00e1lku\u201c a poukazuje na dlouhov\u011bkost Vietnamu a Ir\u00e1ku. Macgregor s t\u00edm ale nesouhlas\u00ed: \u201eVe Vietnamu a Ir\u00e1ku nikdy nedo\u0161lo k naru\u0161en\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edch dod\u00e1vek energie.\u201c Nyn\u00ed je v\u0161ak situace z\u00e1sadn\u011b odli\u0161n\u00e1. Zbran\u011b, a zejm\u00e9na vysoce p\u0159esn\u00e1 munice pro velk\u00fd \u00fader proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, budou spot\u0159ebov\u00e1ny za m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e dva t\u00fddny. \u201eV\u0161echny tyto exotick\u00e9 p\u0159esn\u00e9 zbran\u011b budou vy\u010derp\u00e1ny b\u011bhem p\u011bti a\u017e deseti dn\u016f.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Role Izraele a skute\u010dn\u00fd c\u00edl<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Cel\u00fd konstrukt podle Macgregora v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku slou\u017e\u00ed jin\u00e9mu \u00fa\u010delu: ochran\u011b Izraele. Izraelci maj\u00ed dlouhodob\u00fd pl\u00e1n s n\u00e1zvem \u201eProjekt Velk\u00fd Izrael\u201c a \u00cdr\u00e1n pova\u017euj\u00ed za posledn\u00ed zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eku. P\u016fvodn\u00ed spou\u0161t\u011b\u010d, \u00fatok ze 7. \u0159\u00edjna, je st\u00e1le v\u00edce zdiskreditov\u00e1n \u2013 dokonce i v Izraeli se uzn\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee tento \u00fatok byl zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n \u00cdr\u00e1nem. D\u016fsledkem je podle n\u011bj to, \u017ee se sv\u011bt v \u010dele s Egyptem a Tureckem bude st\u00e1le v\u00edce sjednocovat proti Izraeli, a tedy i proti jeho neochv\u011bjn\u00e9mu stoupenci, Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1v\u011br: Nen\u00ed v dohledu \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 cesta ven<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Anal\u00fdza plukovn\u00edka Douglase Macgregora je zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed ob\u017ealobou sou\u010dasn\u00e9 americk\u00e9 politiky. Bez jasn\u00e9ho c\u00edle, spol\u00e9haj\u00edc\u00ed se na fale\u0161n\u00e9 narativy a projevuj\u00edc\u00ed nebezpe\u010dnou ne\u00factu k fyzik\u00e1ln\u00edm a ekonomick\u00fdm z\u00e1kon\u016fm, vede administrativa zemi do slep\u00e9 uli\u010dky. Selh\u00e1n\u00ed se projev\u00ed nikoli na vzd\u00e1len\u00e9m Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, ale na dom\u00e1c\u00edch \u010derpac\u00edch stanic\u00edch, v reg\u00e1lech supermarket\u016f a na finan\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch. \u201eBude to peklo,\u201c shrnuje Davis na konci Macgregorovo poselstv\u00ed. Ot\u00e1zkou u\u017e nen\u00ed, zda se to stane, ale kdy. Dokud se administrativa bude dr\u017eet fikce \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 blok\u00e1dy, chyb\u00ed z\u00e1klad pro racion\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bnu kurzu. \u201ePrezident Trump ned\u011bl\u00e1 svou pr\u00e1ci jako v\u016fdce t\u00e9to zem\u011b,\u201c uzav\u00edr\u00e1 Macgregor. \u201eTo je v sou\u010dasnosti nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m hloubkov\u00e9m rozhovoru analyzuje b\u00fdval\u00fd poradce pro obranu a zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku a vysoce vyznamen\u00e1n\u00ed&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":105988,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,4199,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105987"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=105987"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105987\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/105988"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=105987"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=105987"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=105987"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}