{"id":105943,"date":"2026-05-06T00:31:47","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T22:31:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=105943"},"modified":"2026-05-05T20:08:42","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T18:08:42","slug":"scott-ritter-nove-mocenske-paradigma-na-blizkem-vychode","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/06\/scott-ritter-nove-mocenske-paradigma-na-blizkem-vychode\/","title":{"rendered":"Scott Ritter: Nov\u00e9 mocensk\u00e9 paradigma na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u00cdr\u00e1n vyhr\u00e1l v\u00e1lku. Postaven\u00ed se na \u0161patn\u00e9 stran\u011b rovnov\u00e1hy sil m\u00e1 sv\u00e9 d\u016fsledky \u2013 realitu, kterou se USA a jejich spojenci v arabsk\u00e9m Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu u\u010d\u00ed tvrd\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo hl\u00eddkuje v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je to \u0161patn\u00e1 doba pro to b\u00fdt arabsk\u00fdm st\u00e1tem Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu.<\/span><\/p>\n

USA a Izrael riskovaly, kdy\u017e 28. \u00fanora leto\u0161n\u00edho roku zah\u00e1jily sv\u016fj p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd \u00fatok na \u00cdr\u00e1n. Do t\u00e9 m\u00edry, do jak\u00e9 byli p\u0159edem konzultov\u00e1ni s nimi, byli konzultov\u00e1ni i se spojenci Ameriky v arabsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prohr\u00e1li.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pachatel\u00e9 t\u00e9to zrady nedos\u00e1hli \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdch zjevn\u00fdch politick\u00fdch ani vojensk\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f \u2013 ani zm\u011bny re\u017eimu, ani potla\u010den\u00ed raket, ani kontroly nad Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00edsto toho byla proti\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 klika nucena usilovat o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by \u00cdr\u00e1nu poskytlo \u00faplnou kontrolu nad strategick\u00fdm Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by ochromilo region\u00e1ln\u00ed i glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiky blokov\u00e1n\u00edm tranzitu pr\u00e1v\u011b t\u00e9 energie, na kter\u00e9 jsou z\u00e1visl\u00e9. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da z\u016fstala neporu\u0161en\u00e1, schopn\u00e1 a vzdorovit\u00e1, schopn\u00e1 zah\u00e1jit ni\u010div\u00e9 \u00fadery proti \u00fakryt\u016fm sv\u00fdch nep\u0159\u00e1tel.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010cty\u0159icetidenn\u00ed v\u00e1lka mezi kabalou USA\/Izrael\/arabsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu a \u00cdr\u00e1nem podtrhla realitu, kterou je pro mnoh\u00e9 t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 p\u0159ijmout: vojensk\u00e1 kapacita USA prom\u00edtat s\u00edlu na Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod se zmen\u0161ila t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 k bezmocnosti a p\u016fvodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektura, v n\u00ed\u017e dominovaly USA a kter\u00e1 existovala po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed, nedok\u00e1zala zabr\u00e1nit \u00cdr\u00e1nu v z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed faktick\u00e9 kontroly nad energetick\u00fdmi zdroji, kter\u00e9 m\u011bly USA zajistit. Tato nov\u00e1 realita donut\u00ed region a sv\u011bt opustit koncepty vojensk\u00e9ho odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na USA a posunout se sm\u011brem k multipol\u00e1rn\u00edmu bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edmu r\u00e1mci odvozen\u00e9mu z ekonomick\u00e9 reality, kter\u00fd zahrnuje Rusko, \u010c\u00ednu a vztahy podobn\u00e9 BRICS.<\/span><\/p>\n

Star\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 doktr\u00edna, na kter\u00e9 byly zalo\u017eeny p\u0159edchoz\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed vztahy, ji\u017e nen\u00ed \u017eivotaschopn\u00e1 a jak\u00fdkoli pokus o jej\u00ed o\u017eiven\u00ed by byl ne\u00fanosn\u011b drah\u00fd a v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku nedosa\u017eiteln\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno: USA prohr\u00e1ly, proto\u017ee jejich z\u00e1kladn\u00ed vojensky orientovan\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup k \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f ji\u017e nebyl efektivn\u00ed a \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 v\u00fddaje na obranu tuto realitu nedok\u00e1\u017eou zvr\u00e1tit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro st\u00e1ty, jako jsou arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu a Indie, kter\u00e9 sv\u016fj strategick\u00fd postoj zalo\u017eily na p\u0159ijet\u00ed a p\u0159\u00edslibu americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 dominance, bude velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 to p\u0159ijmout.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto n\u00e1rody nyn\u00ed varuj\u00ed sv\u011bt p\u0159ed oslaben\u00edm pr\u00e1vn\u00edho st\u00e1tu v d\u016fsledku ztr\u00e1ty kontroly nad Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem a poukazuj\u00ed na to, \u017ee pokud bude dodr\u017een precedent Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, mohlo by doj\u00edt k ohro\u017een\u00ed mnoha podobn\u00fdch \u00fazk\u00fdch m\u00edst, co\u017e by vedlo k riziku \u0161ir\u0161\u00edch konflikt\u016f a naru\u0161en\u00ed globalizace. Tito v\u016fdci nyn\u00ed propaguj\u00ed my\u0161lenku, \u017ee m\u00edr z\u00e1vis\u00ed na sd\u00edlen\u00e9 prosperit\u011b, ropovodech, obchodu a udr\u017eiteln\u00fdch ekonomick\u00fdch s\u00edt\u00edch \u2013 nikoli na vojensk\u00e9 okupaci nebo eskalaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

To byla samoz\u0159ejm\u011b p\u0159esn\u011b ta politika, kterou \u00cdr\u00e1n prosazoval po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed, jen aby ji jeho arab\u0161t\u00ed soused\u00e9 odm\u00edtli, proto\u017ee se c\u00edtili bezpe\u010dn\u011b pod bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm de\u0161tn\u00edkem USA \u2013 de\u0161tn\u00edkem, kter\u00fd se uk\u00e1zal jako iluze.<\/span><\/p>\n

I indi\u010dt\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 \u017eij\u00ed ve sv\u011bt\u011b fantazie, kter\u00fd usiluje o n\u00e1vrat k p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9mu status quo. Na to je v\u0161ak p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 pozd\u011b. Indie se ve vztahu k \u00cdr\u00e1nu obvykle stav\u00ed na \u0161patnou stranu a stav\u00ed se na stranu Izraele (kter\u00fd premi\u00e9r Narendra Modi nav\u0161t\u00edvil v p\u0159edve\u010der v\u00e1lky) a USA, pokud jde o \u00cdr\u00e1n a jeho strategick\u00e9 partnery, jako je \u010c\u00edna. Zapojen\u00ed Indie do Quadu tak\u00e9 nez\u016fstalo bez pov\u0161imnut\u00ed, zat\u00edmco USA podporuj\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1du \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch lod\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Realita pro arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu je takov\u00e1, \u017ee Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv je fakticky uzav\u0159en a jejich p\u0159edchoz\u00ed p\u0159edpoklady o automatick\u00e9m vojensk\u00e9m znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed americk\u00fdm n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvem ji\u017e nejsou platn\u00e9. Zat\u00edmco st\u00e1ty produkuj\u00edc\u00ed energii v regionu usiluj\u00ed o konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed nouzov\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed, jako je zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed ropovod\u016f v\u00fdchod-z\u00e1pad v Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii a n\u00e1vrhy na dal\u0161\u00ed ropovody a zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159epravn\u00ed kapacity v Yanbu a Fujairah, realitou z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina energetick\u00e9 v\u00fdrobn\u00ed kapacity regionu je uv\u011bzn\u011bna v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu a nem\u016f\u017ee se dostat na trh. I kdyby v\u00e1lka skon\u010dila dnes, znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu a obnova region\u00e1ln\u00ed infrastruktury by trvalo m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Arogance arabsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu je v\u0161ak st\u00e1le z\u0159ejm\u00e1. Tyto n\u00e1rody se chovaj\u00ed, jako by se \u00cdr\u00e1nu p\u0159izp\u016fsobovat nemusely, a \u010dekaj\u00ed na jeho dobrou v\u016fli, ne\u017e se pust\u00ed do \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed dne\u0161n\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je to, jako by arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu nespolupracovaly s USA a Izraelem proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b poskytov\u00e1n\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 ob\u011b zem\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edvaly k z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed vojensk\u00fdmi, zpravodajsk\u00fdmi a logistick\u00fdmi zdroji pro p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd \u00fatok z 28. \u00fanora. Arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu byly na t\u00e9to zrad\u011b spoluvin\u00edky, a p\u0159esto dnes cht\u011bj\u00ed hr\u00e1t kartu ob\u011bti.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n jim nev\u011b\u0159\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku fakticky ztratily v\u0161echny strategick\u00e9 pozice, kter\u00e9 m\u011bly p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou. M\u00edsto toho, aby se sna\u017eily o n\u00e1vrat do doby, kdy jejich spolu\u00fa\u010dast p\u0159etrv\u00e1vala, ale nebyla otev\u0159en\u011b uzn\u00e1v\u00e1na, mus\u00ed arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu \u2013 pokud cht\u011bj\u00ed z t\u00e9to sou\u010dasn\u00e9 krize vyj\u00edt bez \u00fahony \u2013 p\u0159ijmout strategickou por\u00e1\u017eku proti\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed aliance veden\u00e9 USA a uznat trvalost a v\u00fdznam Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky. Aby toho mohly dos\u00e1hnout, mus\u00ed se tyto st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu nau\u010dit myslet nad r\u00e1mec paradigmatu ovl\u00e1dan\u00e9ho USA a m\u00edsto toho p\u0159ijmout novou realitu, v n\u00ed\u017e Rusko, \u010c\u00edna a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed mocnosti hraj\u00ed roli v budouc\u00edm bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jednodu\u0161e \u0159e\u010deno, obnoven\u00ed v\u00e1lky nen\u00ed mo\u017enost\u00ed, kterou by arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu mohly zv\u00e1\u017eit \u2013 u\u017e jen proto, \u017ee by takov\u00fd v\u00fdvoj ud\u00e1lost\u00ed nep\u0159e\u017eily. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da zve\u0159ejnila strategickou energetickou infrastrukturu, kter\u00e1 by byla v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku zni\u010dena. Pokud by \u00cdr\u00e1n splnil sv\u00e9 hrozby \u2013 a minul\u00e9 precedenty siln\u011b nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee se tak stane \u2013 arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu by utrp\u011bly trval\u00e9 ochromen\u00ed sv\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 kapacity, co\u017e by pro tyto n\u00e1rody jako modern\u00ed a \u017eivotaschopn\u00e9 st\u00e1ty znamenalo rozsudek smrti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Diplomacie je jedin\u00e1 cesta vp\u0159ed, kter\u00e1 nevede k jist\u00e9mu zni\u010den\u00ed arabsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. Neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 mo\u017enost. A vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n dr\u017e\u00ed v\u0161echny karty v ruce (navzdory tomu, co \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 prezident Donald Trump), mus\u00ed arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu pochopit, \u017ee jak\u00e9koli diplomatick\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 krize mus\u00ed uznat a splnit \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 po\u017eadavky na sta\u017een\u00ed americk\u00fdch vojsk z regionu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku si v\u0161echny strany zapojen\u00e9 do d\u011bn\u00ed na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b mus\u00ed uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee USA jsou probl\u00e9mem, nikoli \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm, a ka\u017ed\u00e1 zem\u011b, kter\u00e1 se bude i nad\u00e1le spol\u00e9hat na USA, aby se dostala ze sou\u010dasn\u00e9 situace, nalezne pouze smutek a zoufalstv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b dnes prob\u00edh\u00e1 nov\u00e9 mocensk\u00e9 paradigma.<\/span><\/p>\n

A nezahrnuje USA.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00cdr\u00e1n vyhr\u00e1l v\u00e1lku. Postaven\u00ed se na \u0161patn\u00e9 stran\u011b rovnov\u00e1hy sil m\u00e1 sv\u00e9 d\u016fsledky \u2013 realitu,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":105944,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,6382,38,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105943"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=105943"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105943\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/105944"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=105943"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=105943"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=105943"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}