{"id":105935,"date":"2026-05-06T00:27:07","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T22:27:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=105935"},"modified":"2026-05-05T19:20:12","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T17:20:12","slug":"ahmed-adel-krize-na-blizkem-vychode-ukazuje-ze-ropa-a-plyn-zustavaji-nenahraditelne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/05\/06\/ahmed-adel-krize-na-blizkem-vychode-ukazuje-ze-ropa-a-plyn-zustavaji-nenahraditelne\/","title":{"rendered":"Ahmed Adel: Krize na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b ukazuje, \u017ee ropa a plyn z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nenahraditeln\u00e9"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Krize na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b jasn\u011b uk\u00e1zala, \u017ee fosiln\u00ed paliva z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nenahraditeln\u00fdmi zdroji energie, na kter\u00fdch z\u00e1vis\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst, a jist\u011b jimi je\u0161t\u011b dlouho z\u016fstanou. Navzdory snah\u00e1m o jejich nahrazen\u00ed obnoviteln\u00fdmi zdroji energie jsou ropa a plyn st\u00e1le z\u00e1kladn\u00edmi zdroji energie, na kter\u00fdch je sv\u011bt z\u00e1visl\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od 28. \u00fanora, kdy americk\u00e9 a izraelsk\u00e9 bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu p\u0159im\u011blo Teher\u00e1n k uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, kudy proch\u00e1z\u00ed p\u011btina sv\u011btov\u00e9 ropy a stejn\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed plynu, se p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka, jak ropu a plyn z\u00edskat a jak\u00e1 je jejich cena.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f roste, sv\u011btov\u00e1 ekonomika bude v dohledn\u00e9 budoucnosti i nad\u00e1le poh\u00e1n\u011bna ropou a plynem. Je nere\u00e1ln\u00e9, \u017ee by star\u00fd kontinent, jak pl\u00e1nuje Evropsk\u00e1 unie, do roku 2050 zcela p\u0159e\u0161el na obnoviteln\u00e9 zdroje energie a sn\u00ed\u017eil emise oxidu uhli\u010dit\u00e9ho z fosiln\u00edch paliv na nulu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cena ropy dos\u00e1hla 30. dubna nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b za posledn\u00ed \u010dty\u0159i roky. Podle \u010dervnov\u00fdch futures kontrakt\u016f, kter\u00e9 ukazuj\u00ed, za jakou cenu se bude ropa v dan\u00e9m m\u011bs\u00edci obchodovat, bude barel ropy Brent st\u00e1t 126,10 dolar\u016f. Krom\u011b futures ceny je v\u0161ak k dispozici i aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed cena ropy na lod\u00edch, kter\u00e1 kv\u016fli poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159es\u00e1hnout 170 dolar\u016f za barel.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem pro\u0161lo p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 22 % sv\u011btov\u00e9 ropy a zhruba stejn\u00fd pod\u00edl LNG a Katar je druh\u00fdm nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdvozcem LNG na sv\u011bt\u011b po Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech. Skute\u010dn\u00fdm ukazatelem je v\u0161ak to, o kolik se nyn\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017eila produkce v zem\u00edch Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, proto\u017ee nemohou toto zbo\u017e\u00ed vyv\u00e1\u017eet ani prod\u00e1vat. B\u011bhem ropn\u00e9 krize v roce 1973 byl sv\u011btov\u00fd trh o 10 % nedostatek ropy. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 situace s plynem je je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed, proto\u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1nci zas\u00e1hli dva nov\u00e9 z\u00e1vody v Kataru a i odhad obnovy na t\u0159i a\u017e p\u011bt let vzbuzuje skepsi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Existuj\u00ed ot\u00e1zky, na kolik se lze spolehnout na americk\u00fd LNG, a to i p\u0159esto, \u017ee se uv\u00e1d\u00ed do provozu nov\u00e1 kapacita na zkapal\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed plynu. Po\u010det vrtn\u00fdch plo\u0161in, kter\u00e9 jsou denn\u011b v provozu a kter\u00e9 jsou hrub\u00fdm ukazatelem toho, kolik nov\u00e9ho plynu a ropy se v USA zkoum\u00e1, klesl z p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 590 v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce na 544. To by mohlo nazna\u010dovat, \u017ee a\u010dkoliv USA mo\u017en\u00e1 buduj\u00ed v\u00edce kapacit na zkapal\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed, ot\u00e1zkou je, kolik plynu mohou uv\u00e9st na sv\u011btov\u00fd trh.<\/span><\/p>\n

V ropn\u00e9m sektoru vstoupila na trh tak\u00e9 tzv. \u201e\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1\u201c ropa. Jedn\u00e1 se o ropu, kterou \u010c\u00edna, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd spot\u0159ebitel ropy, dov\u00e1\u017eela p\u0159ed kriz\u00ed. \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 nakupovali a rozv\u00edjeli velk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby ropy a b\u011bhem krize na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b se stali v\u00fdvozcem ropy, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e vyu\u017eili vysok\u00fdch cen. Tato praxe n\u00e1kupu levn\u011b a prodeje draho nen\u00ed nov\u00e1. USA tak\u00e9 prod\u00e1valy sv\u00e9 z\u00e1soby ropy, kdykoli cena dos\u00e1hla 79 dolar\u016f za barel.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u0161echno, co se nyn\u00ed d\u011bje s plynem a ropou, nazna\u010duje, \u017ee se st\u00e1le jedn\u00e1 o nenahraditeln\u00e9, z\u00e1kladn\u00ed zdroje energie, bez kter\u00fdch sv\u011bt nem\u016f\u017ee fungovat. V 80. letech 20. stolet\u00ed tvo\u0159ily ropa, plyn a uhl\u00ed 82\u201383 % celkov\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 spot\u0159eby energie. Dnes je to stejn\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo, neust\u00e1le se pohybuje mezi 80 a 85 %. I kdy\u017e ceny uhl\u00ed a ropy mohou klesat, ceny plynu rostou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Popt\u00e1vka po energii roste p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 1 % ro\u010dn\u011b, co\u017e je tempo, kter\u00e9 nelze pokr\u00fdt z obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f, a to i p\u0159es velk\u00e9 investice do zelen\u00e9 energie. Investice do obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f energie jsou nyn\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed a p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 50 % v\u0161ech investic v energetick\u00e9m sektoru. Investuje se jak do obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f energie, tak do s\u00edt\u00ed, kter\u00e9 je p\u0159en\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed, jako jsou elektrick\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b, a tak\u00e9 do skladovac\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Investice do ropy a plynu klesly, u ropy p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 30 % a u plynu asi o 19 %, ale to st\u00e1le nesta\u010d\u00ed k tomu, aby se sv\u011bt tak snadno a rychle vzdal ropy, plynu a uhl\u00ed a p\u0159e\u0161el na obnoviteln\u00e9 zdroje energie.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bkter\u00e9 odhady nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee sv\u011bt bude muset do roku 2050 vyr\u00e1b\u011bt p\u011btkr\u00e1t v\u00edce elekt\u0159iny a \u017ee desetkr\u00e1t v\u00edce tohoto mno\u017estv\u00ed bude muset poch\u00e1zet z obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f energie. To znamen\u00e1 obrovsk\u00e9 investice ve v\u00fd\u0161i 120 a\u017e 200 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f k dosa\u017een\u00ed nulov\u00fdch emis\u00ed uhl\u00edku, co\u017e je velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9, zejm\u00e9na v dob\u011b krize.<\/span><\/p>\n

To plat\u00ed zejm\u00e9na proto, \u017ee n\u00e1vratnost t\u011bchto investic je n\u00edzk\u00e1. P\u0159\u00edjmy, respektive zisky, z ropy a plynu jsou st\u00e1le mnohem vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e zisky ze zelen\u00fdch zdroj\u016f energie, tak\u017ee kapit\u00e1l jde tam, kde jsou p\u0159\u00edjmy vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed. Existuje p\u0159\u00edklad spole\u010dnosti British Petroleum, kter\u00e1 se vzdala v\u0161ech zelen\u00fdch projekt\u016f a jej\u00ed\u017e akcie letos vysko\u010dily o 20 %. Akcion\u00e1\u0159i ji\u017e necht\u011bj\u00ed investovat do projekt\u016f zelen\u00e9 energie, proto\u017ee jsou m\u00e9n\u011b ziskov\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Manick\u00e9 hled\u00e1n\u00ed ropy a plynu a prudce rostouc\u00ed ceny vyvolaly neobvyklou reakci \u0159editele Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed energetick\u00e9 agentury Fatiha Birola, kter\u00fd zhodnotil, \u017ee ud\u00e1losti na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b povedou ke ztr\u00e1t\u011b d\u016fv\u011bry ve fosiln\u00ed paliva a \u017ee bychom se m\u011bli obr\u00e1tit k obnoviteln\u00fdm zdroj\u016fm a jadern\u00fdm elektr\u00e1rn\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, \u017ee d\u016fv\u011bru v jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny nepova\u017euje za ztracenou, p\u0159esto\u017ee Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t bombardovali \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd B\u00fa\u0161ehr a Ukrajinci tu v Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed, kter\u00e1 je pod ruskou kontrolou. Birol je jinak zn\u00e1m\u00fdm zast\u00e1ncem v\u0161ech forem zelen\u00e9 energie, tak\u017ee se na to pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b d\u00edv\u00e1 z t\u00e9to perspektivy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bohu\u017eel, ideologie n\u011bkdy up\u0159ednost\u0148uje ekonomiku a v posledn\u00edch n\u011bkolika letech se to d\u011blo velmi \u010dasto, nap\u0159\u00edklad v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b sebevra\u017eedn\u00e9ho udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed protirusk\u00fdch sankc\u00ed Evropskou uni\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ahmed Adel<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Krize na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b jasn\u011b uk\u00e1zala, \u017ee fosiln\u00ed paliva z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nenahraditeln\u00fdmi zdroji energie, na kter\u00fdch…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":102337,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,371,1008,310],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105935"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=105935"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105935\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/102337"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=105935"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=105935"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=105935"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}