{"id":105520,"date":"2026-04-29T05:50:05","date_gmt":"2026-04-29T03:50:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=105520"},"modified":"2026-04-29T05:50:05","modified_gmt":"2026-04-29T03:50:05","slug":"scott-ritter-nove-mocenske-usporadani-na-blizkem-vychode","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/29\/scott-ritter-nove-mocenske-usporadani-na-blizkem-vychode\/","title":{"rendered":"Scott Ritter: Nov\u00e9 mocensk\u00e9 uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n vyhr\u00e1l v\u00e1lku. B\u00fdt na \u0161patn\u00e9 stran\u011b m\u00e1 sv\u00e9 d\u016fsledky \u2013 USA a jejich arab\u0161t\u00ed spojenci si to pr\u00e1v\u011b tvrd\u011b uv\u011bdomuj\u00ed<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Pro arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu je to nyn\u00ed t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 obdob\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a Izrael riskovaly, kdy\u017e 28. \u00fanora tohoto roku zah\u00e1jily p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd \u00fatok na \u00cdr\u00e1n. Pokud s nimi bylo p\u0159edem konzultov\u00e1no, riskovali i ameri\u010dt\u00ed spojenci z arabsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Prohr\u00e1li.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ti, kdo se dopustili zrady, nedos\u00e1hli \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdch z\u0159eteln\u00fdch politick\u00fdch ani vojensk\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f \u2013 ani zm\u011bny re\u017eimu, ani potla\u010den\u00ed raketov\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f, ani kontroly nad Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem.<\/p>\n

M\u00edsto toho byla proti\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 klika donucena usilovat o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, kter\u00e9 ponechalo \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u00faplnou kontrolu nad strategick\u00fdm Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem, \u010d\u00edm\u017e dus\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed i glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiky blokov\u00e1n\u00edm tranzitu pr\u00e1v\u011b t\u00e9 energie, na n\u00ed\u017e z\u00e1vis\u00ed jejich fungov\u00e1n\u00ed, a jeho arm\u00e1da z\u016fstala neporu\u0161en\u00e1, schopn\u00e1 a vzdorn\u00e1, schopn\u00e1 zasadit ni\u010div\u00e9 r\u00e1ny do doupat sv\u00fdch nep\u0159\u00e1tel.<\/p>\n

40denn\u00ed v\u00e1lka mezi Ameri\u010dany\/ Izraelem a arabsk\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu a \u00cdr\u00e1nem podtrhla realitu, kterou mnoz\u00ed t\u011b\u017eko p\u0159ij\u00edmaj\u00ed \u2013 \u017ee vojensk\u00e1 schopnost Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f projektovat s\u00edlu na Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod se oslabila a\u017e k t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u00fapln\u00e9 bezmocnosti a \u017ee p\u016fvodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektura zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 na USA, kter\u00e1 fungovala po desetilet\u00ed, nedok\u00e1zala zabr\u00e1nit \u00cdr\u00e1nu v z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed faktick\u00e9 kontroly nad t\u011bmi energetick\u00fdmi uzly, kter\u00e9 m\u011bly USA zabezpe\u010dit. Tato nov\u00e1 realita donut\u00ed region i sv\u011bt opustit koncepce zalo\u017een\u00e9 na vojensk\u00e9m odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed veden\u00e9m USA a p\u0159ej\u00edt k multipol\u00e1rn\u00edmu bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edmu r\u00e1mci odvozen\u00e9mu z ekonomick\u00e9 reality, kter\u00fd bude zahrnovat Rusko, \u010c\u00ednu a vztahy podobn\u00e9 t\u011bm v r\u00e1mci BRICS. Tradi\u010dn\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 doktr\u00edna, na n\u00ed\u017e byly zalo\u017eeny star\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed vztahy, ji\u017e nen\u00ed \u017eivotaschopn\u00e1 a jak\u00e1koli snaha o jej\u00ed o\u017eiven\u00ed by byla ne\u00fanosn\u011b n\u00e1kladn\u00e1 a v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku nedosa\u017eiteln\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, USA prohr\u00e1ly, proto\u017ee jejich z\u00e1kladn\u00ed vojensk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup k \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f ji\u017e nebyl \u00fa\u010dinn\u00fd a \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 v\u00fd\u0161e v\u00fddaj\u016f na obranu tuto realitu nem\u016f\u017ee zvr\u00e1tit.<\/p>\n

Bude to velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e1 realita pro ty n\u00e1rody, jako jsou arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu a Indie, kter\u00e9 zalo\u017eily sv\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 postoje na p\u0159edpokladu a slibu americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 dominance.<\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed tyto zem\u011b varuj\u00ed sv\u011bt p\u0159ed oslaben\u00edm pr\u00e1vn\u00edho st\u00e1tu v souvislosti se ztr\u00e1tou kontroly nad Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem a poukazuj\u00ed na to, \u017ee existuje \u0159ada podobn\u00fdch \u00fazk\u00fdch m\u00edst, kter\u00e1 by mohla b\u00fdt ohro\u017eena, pokud by precedens z Hormuzu obst\u00e1l, co\u017e by znamenalo riziko \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho konfliktu a naru\u0161en\u00ed globalizace. Tito l\u00edd\u0159i nyn\u00ed prosazuj\u00ed my\u0161lenku, \u017ee m\u00edr z\u00e1vis\u00ed na spole\u010dn\u00e9 prosperit\u011b, ropovodech, obchodu a udr\u017eiteln\u00fdch ekonomick\u00fdch s\u00edt\u00edch, sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e na vojensk\u00e9 okupaci nebo eskalaci.<\/p>\n

To jsou samoz\u0159ejm\u011b p\u0159esn\u011b ty politiky, kter\u00e9 \u00cdr\u00e1n prosazuje ji\u017e des\u00edtky let, jen\u017ee se setkal s odm\u00edtav\u00fdm postojem sv\u00fdch arabsk\u00fdch soused\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed se c\u00edtili v bezpe\u010d\u00ed pod americk\u00fdm bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm de\u0161tn\u00edkem, kter\u00fd se uk\u00e1zal jako iluzorn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Indi\u010dt\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 rovn\u011b\u017e \u017eij\u00ed v \u0159\u00ed\u0161i sn\u016f, kter\u00e1 usiluje o n\u00e1vrat k p\u0159edkonfliktn\u00edmu status quo. Na to je v\u0161ak ji\u017e p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 pozd\u011b. Indie se v ot\u00e1zce \u00cdr\u00e1nu tradi\u010dn\u011b stav\u00ed na \u0161patnou stranu, kdy\u017e se v ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch \u00cdr\u00e1nu a jeho strategick\u00fdch partner\u016f, jako je \u010c\u00edna, stav\u00ed na stranu Izraele (kter\u00fd premi\u00e9r M\u00f3d\u00ed nav\u0161t\u00edvil v p\u0159edve\u010der v\u00e1lky) a USA. Zapojen\u00ed Indie do iniciativy Quad neunik\u00e1 pozornosti v dob\u011b, kdy USA prosazuj\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1du \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 lodn\u00ed dopravy.<\/p>\n

Realitou pro arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu je, \u017ee Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv je fakticky uzav\u0159en a \u017ee jejich d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edpoklady o automatick\u00e9m vojensk\u00e9m znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed americk\u00fdm n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvem ji\u017e neplat\u00ed. Zat\u00edmco energeticky produkuj\u00edc\u00ed zem\u011b regionu hledaj\u00ed konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed nouzov\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed, jako je roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e9 vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed ropovod\u016f v\u00fdchod-z\u00e1pad v Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii a n\u00e1vrhy na dal\u0161\u00ed ropovody a zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159epravn\u00ed kapacity v Yamboru a Fud\u017eaj\u0159e, realita je takov\u00e1, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina energetick\u00e9 produk\u010dn\u00ed kapacity regionu z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 uv\u011bzn\u011bna v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu a nem\u016f\u017ee se dostat na trh. I kdyby v\u00e1lka skon\u010dila dnes, vy\u0159e\u0161en\u00ed znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu a obnovy region\u00e1ln\u00ed infrastruktury by trvalo m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/p>\n

Arogance arabsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu v\u0161ak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 z\u0159ejm\u00e1. Tyto zem\u011b zauj\u00edmaj\u00ed postoj, \u017ee st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu nemus\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu vych\u00e1zet vst\u0159\u00edc a \u017ee tyto stejn\u00e9 st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu \u010dekaj\u00ed na \u00edr\u00e1nskou dobrou v\u016fli, ne\u017e se zapoj\u00ed do \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed probl\u00e9m\u016f, kter\u00e9 dnes existuj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Je to, jako by arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu nem\u011bly za sebou des\u00edtky let spolupr\u00e1ce s USA a Izraelem proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, v\u010detn\u011b poskytov\u00e1n\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 ob\u011b zem\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edvaly k rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed vojensk\u00fdch, zpravodajsk\u00fdch a logistick\u00fdch zdroj\u016f, kter\u00e9 umo\u017enily p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd \u00fatok 28. \u00fanora. Arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu se na t\u00e9to zrad\u011b pod\u00edlely, a p\u0159esto dnes cht\u011bj\u00ed hr\u00e1t na kartu ob\u011bti.<\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n jim to nev\u011b\u0159\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011brem je, \u017ee arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu fakticky ztratily jakoukoli strategickou pozici, kterou m\u011bly p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou. M\u00edsto toho, aby se sna\u017eily o n\u00e1vrat do doby, kdy jejich spoluvina pokra\u010dovala, ale nebyla otev\u0159en\u011b p\u0159izn\u00e1na, mus\u00ed arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu \u2013 pokud cht\u011bj\u00ed tuto sou\u010dasnou krizi p\u0159e\u017e\u00edt bez \u00fahony \u2013 p\u0159ijmout strategickou por\u00e1\u017eku region\u00e1ln\u00ed proti\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 kliky veden\u00e9 USA a uznat trvalost a v\u00fdznam Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky. Aby toho dos\u00e1hly, mus\u00ed se tyto arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu nau\u010dit myslet mimo paradigma dominovan\u00e9 USA a m\u00edsto toho p\u0159ijmout novou realitu, v n\u00ed\u017e Rusko, \u010c\u00edna a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed mocnosti hraj\u00ed roli v budouc\u00edm bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Zjednodu\u0161en\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, obnoven\u00ed v\u00e1lky nen\u00ed mo\u017enost\u00ed, kterou by arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu mohly zva\u017eovat, u\u017e jen proto, \u017ee takov\u00fd v\u00fdvoj ud\u00e1lost\u00ed nep\u0159e\u017eij\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da zve\u0159ejnila strategickou infrastrukturu pro v\u00fdrobu energie, kter\u00e1 bude ter\u010dem \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho ni\u010den\u00ed, pokud by \u00cdr\u00e1n byl vystaven \u00fatoku. Kdyby \u00cdr\u00e1n sv\u00e9 hrozby splnil \u2013 a minul\u00e9 precedenty siln\u011b nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee by tak u\u010dinil \u2013 pak by arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu utrp\u011bly trval\u00e9 ochromen\u00ed sv\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 kapacity, co\u017e by znamenalo z\u00e1nik t\u011bchto n\u00e1rod\u016f jako \u017eivotaschopn\u00fdch modern\u00edch n\u00e1rodn\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f.<\/p>\n

Diplomacie je jedinou cestou vp\u0159ed, kter\u00e1 nevede k jist\u00e9 zk\u00e1ze arabsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. Neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 mo\u017enost. A vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n dr\u017e\u00ed v\u0161echny trumfy (navzdory tomu, co \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 prezident Trump), mus\u00ed arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu pochopit, \u017ee jak\u00e9koli diplomatick\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 krize mus\u00ed uznat a vyhov\u011bt \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm po\u017eadavk\u016fm na odstran\u011bn\u00ed americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edtomnosti z regionu.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011brem lze \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee pokud jde o budoucnost Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu, mus\u00ed v\u0161echny z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00e9 strany uznat, \u017ee USA jsou probl\u00e9mem, nikoli \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm, a \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd n\u00e1rod, kter\u00fd se i nad\u00e1le spol\u00e9h\u00e1 na USA, aby ho vyvedly ze sou\u010dasn\u00e9 sv\u00edzeln\u00e9 situace, \u010dek\u00e1 pouze smutek a zoufalstv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Dnes se na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 nov\u00fd mocensk\u00fd paradigmat.<\/p>\n

A ten nezahrnuje Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty.<\/p>\n

\n

A New Middle Eastern Power Paradigm<\/a> vy\u0161el 27.4.2026 na scottritter.substack.com<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00cdr\u00e1n vyhr\u00e1l v\u00e1lku. B\u00fdt na \u0161patn\u00e9 stran\u011b m\u00e1 sv\u00e9 d\u016fsledky \u2013 USA a jejich arab\u0161t\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":105521,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1854,2181,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105520"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=105520"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105520\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/105521"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=105520"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=105520"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=105520"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}