{"id":105477,"date":"2026-04-28T00:16:49","date_gmt":"2026-04-27T22:16:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=105477"},"modified":"2026-04-28T02:13:54","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T00:13:54","slug":"zbynek-fiala-nepropasneme-tu-krizi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/28\/zbynek-fiala-nepropasneme-tu-krizi\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Neprop\u00e1sn\u011bme tu krizi"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

C\u00edlem Donalda Trumpa v \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce bylo pos\u00edlen\u00ed americk\u00e9ho trhu s ropou, ale kouzlem necht\u011bn\u00e9ho je, \u017ee naopak urychlil \u00faprk od fosilu. Historicky nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ropn\u00fd \u0161ok m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159in\u00e9st i dal\u0161\u00ed pozitivn\u00ed zm\u011bny.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Americko-izraelsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu p\u0159erostla r\u00e1mec b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho region\u00e1ln\u00edho konfliktu a stala se zdrojem z\u00e1sadn\u00ed geopolitick\u00e9 krize, mo\u017en\u00e1 nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed od druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Nejde o to, kolik mrtv\u00fdch a kolik rozbombardovan\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f a sest\u0159elen\u00fdch stroj\u016f je na ka\u017ed\u00e9 stran\u011b. Konflikt spustil tepenn\u00e9 krv\u00e1cen\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiky naru\u0161en\u00edm dod\u00e1vek ropy, a to bude pokra\u010dovat i po jeho skon\u010den\u00ed. Opravy kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch t\u011b\u017eebn\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed mohou zabrat spoustu \u010dasu, ale nal\u00e9hav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je ot\u00e1zka, zda se vyplat\u00ed investovat do jejich obnovy.<\/p>\n

Takov\u00fdch ot\u00e1zek, ovliv\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edch p\u0159edstavy o budoucnosti, se vyno\u0159uje v\u00edc. V\u00edme, \u017ee by to \u0161lo i bez ropy, v\u00edme, \u017ee drony za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed b\u00fdt mocn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 zbran\u011b, v\u00edme, \u017ee d\u0159\u00edve nemysliteln\u00e9 \u00fakoly zp\u0159\u00edstup\u0148uje skoro do kuchyn\u011b um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence. Dlouhodob\u011b je tedy \u0161ance, ale co te\u010f?<\/p>\n

Sta\u010d\u00ed se pod\u00edvat dom\u016f. Je\u0161t\u011b p\u00e1r t\u00fddn\u016f m\u016f\u017ee vl\u00e1da zvl\u00e1dat probl\u00e9my s\u00a0energi\u00ed a pohonn\u00fdmi hmotami, \u010derp\u00e1 se ropn\u00fdch z\u00a0rezerv, p\u0159ifoukne se zadlu\u017een\u00ed, ale v\u0161echno m\u00e1 sv\u00e9 meze. Jde o to, jak podpory ufinancovat.<\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed velkou ob\u011bt\u00ed budou nesmysln\u00e9 zbrojn\u00ed v\u00fddaje. Je jedno, na co se te\u010f k\u00fdvlo. Kdo obh\u00e1j\u00ed p\u011btiprocentn\u00ed \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed na americk\u00e9 zbrojn\u00ed v\u00fdpaln\u00e9, bude smeten ve volb\u00e1ch. Cht\u011bl bych b\u00fdt zlatou mu\u0161kou na summitu NATO v\u00a0Anka\u0159e. Jak chcete prosazovat dlouhodob\u00e9 z\u00e1vazky v nejistot\u011b, \u017ee Trump nevydr\u017e\u00ed do \u0161vestek?<\/p>\n

Se z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00edm\u00a0ropou se m\u016f\u017eeme vr\u00e1tit p\u0159es Slovensko k\u00a0Dru\u017eb\u011b, ale bude to jako rada Marie Antoinetty dav\u016fm, kter\u00fdm chyb\u011bl chleba. Tak a\u0165 jed\u00ed kol\u00e1\u010de! Historie trochu kec\u00e1, francouzsk\u00e1 kr\u00e1lovna fakticky radila hladov\u00fdm podan\u00fdm, a\u0165 jed\u00ed placky z\u00a0mlyn\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch odpad\u016f. Zapome\u0148me na historickou pravdu a porovnejme chlebov\u00e9 ceny ropy p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou s\u00a0lah\u016fdkami z ropn\u00fdch\u00a0cukr\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed za p\u00e1r m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. P\u0159edpov\u011bdi mluv\u00ed o n\u00e1sobn\u00e9m zdra\u017een\u00ed. Co platno, kdy\u017e to pote\u010de, ale p\u0159estane to b\u00fdt dostupn\u00e9 za tr\u017en\u00ed cenu.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed ob\u011bt\u00ed bude tradi\u010dn\u00ed energetika, z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na n\u011b\u010dem, co nejde ovlivnit. Pokusy obej\u00edt omezen\u00ed nap\u0159\u00edklad p\u0159es uhl\u00ed naraz\u00ed na rostouc\u00ed vn\u00edmavost ve\u0159ejnosti v\u016f\u010di klimatick\u00fdm zm\u011bn\u00e1m, kterou probud\u00ed katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed sucho. \u0158e\u010di o rychl\u00e9m rozvoji j\u00e1dra zn\u011bj\u00ed jako vypr\u00e1v\u011bnky o obran\u011b vlastn\u00edmi americk\u00fdmi st\u00edha\u010dkami. Za deset let? A do t\u00e9 doby ned\u00fdchat? Ze stamiliardov\u00fdch sn\u016f n\u00e1s probud\u00ed d\u00edra v\u00a0kapse.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed zranitelnost ekonomiky, kterou si za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1me uv\u011bdomovat, je jej\u00ed obrovsk\u00e1 energetick\u00e1, materi\u00e1ln\u00ed a dopravn\u00ed n\u00e1ro\u010dnost. Rozs\u00e1hl\u00fd pr\u016fmysl, kter\u00fd z n\u00e1s ud\u011blal nejprve kov\u00e1rnu Rakouska-Uherska, potom kov\u00e1rnu Var\u0161avsk\u00e9 smlouvy a te\u010f (hlavn\u011b automobilovou) kov\u00e1rnu EU, m\u00e1 i sv\u00e9 nev\u00fdhody.<\/p>\n

Jsme subdodavatel\u00e9, p\u0159\u00edjemci ceny, p\u0159ehnan\u00ed d\u00e1rci krve, jak poskytujeme zahrani\u010dn\u00edm odb\u011bratel\u016fm sv\u00e9 vybydlen\u00e9 \u017eivotn\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed. Zbylo hlavn\u011b to, co nikdo nechce, a za pen\u00edze, za kter\u00e9 by to ned\u011blal. D\u011bl\u00e1me na ciz\u00ed, ne na sebe. Nem\u016f\u017eeme si ur\u010dit, co chceme, a nem\u016f\u017eeme si to ani koupit, proto\u017ee za na\u0161i pr\u00e1ci dost nedostaneme. Bydlen\u00ed, zdrav\u00e9 potraviny, \u0161koly pro budoucnost, bezstarostn\u00e9 st\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, to v\u0161echno se sn\u00e1ze obdivuje jinde.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e to shrnu, lezeme do strm\u00e9ho kopce, za kter\u00fdm tu\u0161\u00edme historick\u00fd zlom. Ten nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v\u00a0tom, \u017ee se m\u00e1me uskromnit a zocelit na str\u00e1\u017ei p\u0159ed nep\u0159\u00edtelem za ka\u017ed\u00fdm rohem. Mus\u00edme tvo\u0159iv\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edt faktu, \u017ee n\u00e1rodn\u00edm st\u00e1t\u016fm doch\u00e1zej\u00ed s\u00edly. Ne\u010dekejme svobodu shora, v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u0161ance je dole. Decentralizovan\u00e1 energetika a finance, ekonomika kr\u00e1tk\u00fdch vzd\u00e1lenost\u00ed, v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pod\u00edl da\u0148ov\u00fdch v\u00fdnos\u016f do obc\u00ed a region\u016f, dru\u017estevnictv\u00ed, sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed tlaku zahrani\u010dn\u00edho kapit\u00e1lu, to jsou svobody nejen na pap\u00ed\u0159e.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed rol\u00ed st\u00e1tu mus\u00ed b\u00fdt ochrana t\u011bchto proces\u016f. D\u016frazn\u00e1 regulace monopol\u016f, jako u mar\u017e\u00ed pohonn\u00fdch hmot. Strategick\u00e9 pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed, jako po zest\u00e1tn\u011bn\u00ed v\u00fdrobn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti \u010cEZu. Podobn\u00e9 n\u00e1znaky v\u0161ak chyb\u00ed pro spu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 vlny.<\/p>\n

\u017de je pr\u016fmyslu u\u017e te\u010f a\u017e p\u0159\u00edli\u0161? Ano, toho pod\u0159\u00edzen\u00e9ho. Te\u010f pot\u0159ebujeme ten mal\u00fd chytr\u00fd vlastn\u00ed pro zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed sob\u011bsta\u010dnosti region\u016f. Aby p\u0159i\u0161krcen\u00ed kohoutk\u016f n\u011bkde ve sv\u011bt\u011b byla jen zaj\u00edmavost, nikoliv r\u00e1na. Pot\u0159ebujeme obnovu masov\u00e9ho dru\u017estevnictv\u00ed energetick\u00e9ho, v\u00fdrobn\u00edho, stavebn\u00edho, dopravn\u00edho, finan\u010dn\u00edho a nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho dal\u0161\u00edho. Mal\u00e9 podniky vlastn\u011bn\u00e9 zam\u011bstnanci a obcemi, kter\u00e9 mohou tvo\u0159it \u2013 jak rad\u00ed ekonom David Ellermann \u2013 i finan\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1zem\u00ed penzijn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu.<\/p>\n

Mus\u00ed se obnovit zdrav\u00fd pom\u011br sil mezi prac\u00ed (kterou mezi lidmi m\u00e1me) a kapit\u00e1lem (kter\u00fd mezi lidmi u\u017e tolik nem\u00e1me). \u010ctu o tom znovu a znovu, jak byl tento pom\u011br zvr\u00e1cen v\u00a070. letech minul\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed a od t\u00e9 doby jsme zajatci n\u011bkolika glob\u00e1ln\u00edch bank a nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch finan\u010dn\u00edch instituc\u00ed. Trend by m\u011bl b\u00fdt jasn\u00fd, ale jak vyhr\u00e1t bitvu s\u00a0\u010f\u00e1bly, kte\u0159\u00ed s\u00eddl\u00ed v\u00a0detailech?<\/p>\n

Tohle \u0159\u00edkal v\u00a0sobotu britsk\u00fd historik Rana Dasgupta v\u00a0rozhovoru pro list Politico:<\/p>\n

Domn\u00edv\u00e1m se, \u017ee n\u00e1rodn\u00ed st\u00e1t nar\u00e1\u017e\u00ed na \u0159adu probl\u00e9m\u016f jak v bohat\u00fdch, tak v chud\u00fdch zem\u00edch, v\u00a0Asii i na Z\u00e1pad\u011b. Tyto probl\u00e9my se li\u0161\u00ed, ale obecn\u011b plat\u00ed, \u017ee n\u011bkter\u00e9 bohat\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, mezi n\u011b\u017e pat\u0159\u00ed Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st Evropy, maj\u00ed pot\u00ed\u017ee zajistit politick\u00e1 pr\u00e1va a svobody, jak\u00e1 zaji\u0161\u0165ovaly v minulosti.<\/em><\/p>\n

Jsou mnohem chud\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e d\u0159\u00edve. Sout\u011b\u017e\u00ed s rychle rostouc\u00edmi st\u00e1ty nap\u0159\u00edklad v Asii. \u010cel\u00ed nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm probl\u00e9m\u016fm nerovnosti a podobn\u00fdm v\u011bcem, kter\u00e9 nejsou schopny vy\u0159e\u0161it vlastn\u00edmi silami. K tomu v\u0161emu jsou v podivn\u00e9 konkurenci s velk\u00fdmi technologick\u00fdmi spole\u010dnostmi, kter\u00e9 se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed rivaly v geopolitick\u00e9 sf\u00e9\u0159e \u2013 vyd\u00edraj\u00ed n\u011bkter\u00e9 z t\u011bchto st\u00e1t\u016f, naru\u0161uj\u00ed jejich schopnost v\u00e9st sv\u00e9 demokratick\u00e9 instituce a syst\u00e9my, monitorovat vlastn\u00ed m\u00e9dia a informa\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9my. Pronikaj\u00ed dokonce i do oblast\u00ed jako arm\u00e1da a m\u011bna, tak\u017ee n\u00e1rodn\u00ed st\u00e1ty ji\u017e nemaj\u00ed v\u0161echny monopoly, kter\u00e9 m\u011bly d\u0159\u00edve.<\/em><\/p>\n

– Jak\u00e1 je hlavn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010dina tohoto v\u00fdvoje, pokud ji lze ur\u010dit?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Jedn\u00e1 se o proces, kter\u00fd prob\u00edh\u00e1 ji\u017e del\u0161\u00ed dobu a kter\u00fd ve skute\u010dnosti za\u010dal v 70. letech. Mezi koncem druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky a 70. \u010di 80. lety ovl\u00e1daly st\u00e1ty velkou \u010d\u00e1st n\u00e1rodn\u00ed reality. Bylo obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 sm\u011b\u0148ovat m\u011bny, kapit\u00e1l byl z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti v\u00e1z\u00e1n uvnit\u0159 st\u00e1t\u016f, dan\u011b byly velmi vysok\u00e9, st\u00e1ty byly ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s v\u011bt\u0161inou sv\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f a korporac\u00ed velmi bohat\u00e9 a byly schopny realizovat skute\u010dn\u011b mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 rozvojov\u00e9 projekty v oblasti vzd\u011bl\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed nebo infrastruktury.<\/em><\/p>\n

Od 80. let v\u0161ak doch\u00e1z\u00ed k opravdov\u00e9mu proti\u00fatoku kapit\u00e1lu: k pokusu o obnoven\u00ed nadvl\u00e1dy kapit\u00e1lu a jeho osvobozen\u00ed od st\u00e1tn\u00edho \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Do\u0161lo k rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9mu p\u0159esunu financ\u00ed a pracovn\u00ed s\u00edly do zahrani\u010d\u00ed, do t\u00e9 m\u00edry, \u017ee korporace, banky a bohat\u00ed jednotlivci byli schopni vyd\u00edrat st\u00e1ty \u2013 a v podstat\u011b reorganizovat st\u00e1t tak, aby slou\u017eil jejich vlastn\u00edm z\u00e1jm\u016fm. St\u00e1t se tak stal m\u00e9n\u011b reprezentativn\u00edm pro sv\u00e9 ob\u010dany a v\u00edce jakousi kapitalistickou ma\u0161in\u00e9ri\u00ed.<\/em><\/p>\n

K\u00a0norm\u00e1lu se sv\u011bt vr\u00e1t\u00ed tak\u00e9 n\u00e1vratem k\u00a0multipolarit\u011b. Dasgupta nep\u0159epokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna by\u00a0m\u011bla z\u00e1jem o p\u0159evzet\u00ed hegemonistick\u00e9 role USA. Budoucnost podle n\u011bj nebude ani koncertem t\u0159\u00ed supervelmoc\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u201eDomn\u00edv\u00e1m se, \u017ee vstupujeme do sv\u011bta, v n\u011bm\u017e jsou centra moci mnohem v\u00edce rozpt\u00fdlena. Nejde jen o ty nejviditeln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010de. Velmi, velmi mocn\u00e9 zem\u011b, jako je Indon\u00e9sie nebo Braz\u00edlie, sice zjevn\u011b nejsou glob\u00e1ln\u00edmi supervelmocemi, disponuj\u00ed v\u0161ak obrovsk\u00fdm po\u010dtem obyvatel, velmi rychle rostouc\u00edm pr\u016fmyslem a v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm region\u00e1ln\u00edm vlivem, a\u0165 u\u017e jde o obchod, nebo politick\u00fd dosah. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 jednotliv\u00e1 mocnost nem\u016f\u017ee v\u0161echny tyto zem\u011b druh\u00e9 \u0159ady ovl\u00e1dnout.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/newsletter\/forecast\/what-the-next-world-order-looks-like\/<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n nejsp\u00ed\u0161 do tohoto seznamu pat\u0159\u00ed taky. Kdybychom o\u017eivili V4, m\u016f\u017eeme m\u00edt taky \u0161anci. Multipolarita je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b lep\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e monopoln\u00ed dikt\u00e1t. A pokud jde o roli st\u00e1tu, nemus\u00edme opakovat star\u00e9 chyby. Ale to jsou zm\u011bny naho\u0159e. N\u00e1s m\u016f\u017eou zachr\u00e1nit a\u017e ty dole. \u0160koda nevyu\u017e\u00edt ka\u017ed\u00e9 dobr\u00e9 krize.<\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

C\u00edlem Donalda Trumpa v \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce bylo pos\u00edlen\u00ed americk\u00e9ho trhu s ropou, ale kouzlem necht\u011bn\u00e9ho…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":60059,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,59,371,310,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105477"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=105477"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105477\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/60059"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=105477"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=105477"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=105477"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}