{"id":105363,"date":"2026-04-25T00:21:42","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T22:21:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=105363"},"modified":"2026-04-24T20:02:30","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T18:02:30","slug":"serge-savigny-jak-se-afrika-stava-novym-globalnim-centrem-ropy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/25\/serge-savigny-jak-se-afrika-stava-novym-globalnim-centrem-ropy\/","title":{"rendered":"Serge Savigny: Jak se Afrika st\u00e1v\u00e1 nov\u00fdm glob\u00e1ln\u00edm centrem ropy"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Vysok\u00e9 ceny ropy a v\u00e1lka p\u0159ekresluj\u00ed mapu budouc\u00edch ropn\u00fdch pol\u00ed. Kv\u016fli uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu za\u010daly velk\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti hledat nov\u00e1 pole v Africe a Ji\u017en\u00ed Americe.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Podle den\u00edku\u00a0<\/span>Wall Street Journal<\/span><\/em>\u00a0(WSJ) se ropn\u00ed giganti obracej\u00ed k t\u011bmto region\u016fm, aby se vyhnuli krizi na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eExxonMobil, Chevron, TotalEnergies a dal\u0161\u00ed energetick\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti\u00a0<\/span>urychluj\u00ed hled\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0nov\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch a plynov\u00fdch pol\u00ed daleko od konfliktn\u00ed z\u00f3ny na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b,\u201c p\u00ed\u0161e\u00a0<\/span>WSJ<\/span><\/em>\u00a0. Ofici\u00e1ln\u011b se jedn\u00e1 o sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed z\u00e1vislosti Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu na rop\u011b. Ve skute\u010dnosti jde o to, aby se p\u0159ipravily na dal\u0161\u00ed velk\u00fd ropn\u00fd cyklus.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed ropn\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti za\u010daly aktivn\u011bji investovat do nov\u00fdch t\u011b\u017eebn\u00edch oblast\u00ed mimo Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod, zejm\u00e9na v Africe, Ji\u017en\u00ed Americe a v\u00fdchodn\u00edm St\u0159edomo\u0159\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Na prvn\u00ed pohled to vypad\u00e1 jako reakce na riziko. Rychlost a rozsah investic v\u0161ak ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee se nejedn\u00e1 o obrann\u00fd, ale o ofenzivn\u00ed postoj.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle odhad\u016f v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9 a poradensk\u00e9 firmy Wood Mackenzie, zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00fdch 16. dubna, by velk\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti mohly\u00a0v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch letech na sv\u00fdch pr\u016fzkumn\u00fdch projektech\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>dohromady vyd\u011blat 120 miliard dolar\u016f.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Krize zp\u016fsobila prudk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst cen ropy a v d\u016fsledku toho i zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cash flow spole\u010dnost\u00ed. A pr\u00e1v\u011b tyto pen\u00edze jsou nyn\u00ed sm\u011brov\u00e1ny do pr\u016fzkumu a rozvoje nov\u00fdch lo\u017eisek. Vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed se tak za\u010darovan\u00fd kruh: nestabilita \u2192 rostouc\u00ed ceny \u2192 superzisky \u2192 investice do nov\u00fdch region\u016f. A hlavn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edjemcem t\u011bchto investic je Afrika.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud pomineme obecn\u00e9 formulace, z\u00e1v\u011br je z\u0159ejm\u00fd: Afrika se nyn\u00ed st\u00e1v\u00e1 kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm bodem pro p\u0159erozd\u011blen\u00ed ropn\u00fdch aktiv.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u017e doned\u00e1vna byl kontinent vn\u00edm\u00e1n jako slo\u017eit\u00fd: politick\u00e1 rizika, nedostate\u010dn\u00e1 infrastruktura, nestabilita. Tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 hrozb\u00e1m v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu se v\u0161ak rovnov\u00e1ha zm\u011bnila. Dnes se riziko naru\u0161en\u00ed provozu v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu jev\u00ed leteck\u00fdm spole\u010dnostem jako v\u00e1\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e dlouhodob\u00e9 probl\u00e9my kter\u00e9koli konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed africk\u00e9 zem\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

WSJ\u00a0to \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 velmi bez obalu: \u201eSpole\u010dnosti sp\u011bchaj\u00ed, aby si zajistily nov\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 oblasti daleko od geopolitick\u00fdch ohnisek.\u201c A Afrika t\u00e9to definici nejl\u00e9pe odpov\u00edd\u00e1\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edkladem je Namibie. Je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed n\u011bkolika lety tato zem\u011b prakticky nep\u016fsobila v glob\u00e1ln\u00edm ropn\u00e9m pr\u016fmyslu. Dnes se transformuje v jedno z nejslibn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch m\u00edst pro t\u011b\u017ebu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Spole\u010dnosti TotalEnergies a Shell objevily na kontinent\u00e1ln\u00edm \u0161elfu zem\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 lo\u017eiska ropy. Podle analytik\u016f z oboru by se mohly pohybovat v \u0159\u00e1du miliard barel\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nez\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed jen na objevu, ale tak\u00e9 na na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed. Tyto projekty se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed prioritami pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f, proto\u017ee firmy hledaj\u00ed alternativu k Bl\u00edzk\u00e9mu v\u00fdchodu. Namibie jim nab\u00edz\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost vstoupit na \u201e\u010dist\u00fd\u201c trh, kde je\u0161t\u011b neexistuje siln\u00e1 konkurence ani zaveden\u00e9 smlouvy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00edm kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm regionem je Nig\u00e9rie, jeden z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch producent\u016f ropy v Africe. Zam\u011b\u0159uje se tam na projekty v hlubinn\u00e9 vod\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle den\u00edku\u00a0<\/span>WSJ<\/span><\/em>\u00a0zva\u017euje spole\u010dnost ExxonMobil investice des\u00edtek miliard dolar\u016f do nov\u00fdch projekt\u016f. To je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd bod: hlubinn\u00e9 vrt\u00e1n\u00ed vy\u017eaduje zna\u010dn\u00e9 investice a je ziskov\u00e9 pouze p\u0159i vysok\u00fdch cen\u00e1ch ropy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Bez krize kolem Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu by se tyto projekty rozv\u00edjely mnohem pomaleji.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Krom\u011b zjevn\u00fdch l\u00eddr\u016f se zrychlen\u00ed dot\u00fdk\u00e1 i zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 d\u0159\u00edve byly v pozad\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Angola je dlouhodob\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm v\u00fdvozcem ropy, ale nyn\u00ed t\u011b\u017e\u00ed z nov\u00e9 vlny z\u00e1jmu kv\u016fli pot\u0159eb\u011b diverzifikovat dod\u00e1vky.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Mosambik se mezit\u00edm st\u00e1v\u00e1 centrem pro plynov\u00e9 projekty. I kdy\u017e se nejedn\u00e1 o ropu jako takovou, logika je stejn\u00e1: vytvo\u0159it alternativn\u00ed energetickou z\u00e1kladnu mimo rizikovou z\u00f3nu Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u016fsob\u00ed zde z\u00e1padn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti i asij\u0161t\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010di v pop\u0159ed\u00ed s \u010c\u00ednou, co\u017e region transformuje na ar\u00e9nu p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 konkurence.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdo z toho vlastn\u011b t\u011b\u017e\u00ed?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Spole\u010dnosti kv\u016fli krizi ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed pen\u00edze. Podle\u00a0<\/span>agentury Bloomberg Law<\/span><\/em>\u00a0se produkce u hlavn\u00edch hr\u00e1\u010d\u016f\u00a0<\/span>skute\u010dn\u011b<\/span><\/a>\u00a0sn\u00ed\u017eila o n\u011bkolik procentn\u00edch bod\u016f. R\u016fst cen v\u0161ak tyto ztr\u00e1ty v\u00edce ne\u017e vykompenzoval.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc byl v tomto sektoru ji\u017e pozorov\u00e1n zaj\u00edmav\u00fd sign\u00e1l: vedouc\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 ropn\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed prodali akcie uprost\u0159ed rostouc\u00edch cen a dos\u00e1hli zisku ve v\u00fd\u0161i p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 1,4 miliardy dolar\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee krize nen\u00ed vn\u00edm\u00e1na jako katastrofa, ale jako okno p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti. V\u00edt\u011bzi jsou: podniky, kter\u00e9 z\u00edskaj\u00ed financov\u00e1n\u00ed pro svou expanzi, africk\u00e9 zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 p\u0159il\u00e1kaj\u00ed investice, a st\u00e1ty schopn\u00e9 rozv\u00edjet nov\u00e9 silnice a projekty.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00edm pora\u017een\u00fdm je Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod jako\u017eto monopoln\u00ed centrum dod\u00e1vek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Afrika, dal\u0161\u00ed Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Krize kolem Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu se neuk\u00e1zala jako pouh\u00fd \u0161ok pro trh, ale jako katalyz\u00e1tor zm\u011bn, kter\u00e9 se va\u0159ily ji\u017e dlouhou dobu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ropn\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti zneu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed situaci k p\u0159esm\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed investic, etablov\u00e1n\u00ed se v nov\u00fdch regionech a sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1vislosti na jedin\u00e9 \u00fazk\u00e9 silnici.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A hlavn\u00edm v\u00fdsledkem tohoto procesu je dramatick\u00e9 pos\u00edlen\u00ed role Afriky. Kontinent, doned\u00e1vna pova\u017eovan\u00fd za periferii, se za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 transformovat v jedno ze sv\u011btov\u00fdch v\u00fdrobn\u00edch center.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud bude sou\u010dasn\u00fd trend pokra\u010dovat, pr\u00e1v\u011b zde se v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch letech rozhodne o tom, kdo ovl\u00e1dne dal\u0161\u00ed vlnu glob\u00e1ln\u00edho trhu s ropou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Serge Savigny<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vysok\u00e9 ceny ropy a v\u00e1lka p\u0159ekresluj\u00ed mapu budouc\u00edch ropn\u00fdch pol\u00ed. Kv\u016fli uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu za\u010daly…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":105364,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1271,310,276],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105363"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=105363"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105363\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/105364"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=105363"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=105363"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=105363"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}