{"id":105349,"date":"2026-04-24T00:52:49","date_gmt":"2026-04-23T22:52:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=105349"},"modified":"2026-04-24T00:52:49","modified_gmt":"2026-04-23T22:52:49","slug":"energeticka-krize-zpusobena-blokadou-hormuzskeho-prulivu-se-stupnuje-v-potravinovou-krizi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/24\/energeticka-krize-zpusobena-blokadou-hormuzskeho-prulivu-se-stupnuje-v-potravinovou-krizi\/","title":{"rendered":"Energetick\u00e1 krize zp\u016fsoben\u00e1 blok\u00e1dou Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu se stup\u0148uje v potravinovou krizi."},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Jak a pro\u010d k tomu doch\u00e1z\u00ed a kter\u00e9 zem\u011b a regiony sv\u011bta jsou ohro\u017eeny hladomorem?<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv nen\u00ed jen hlavn\u00edm energetick\u00fdm uzlem. Proch\u00e1z\u00ed j\u00edm p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b t\u0159etina sv\u011btov\u00e9ho obchodu s hnojivy, v\u010detn\u011b z\u00e1silek s\u00edry a amoniaku ur\u010den\u00fdch pro zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fd trh. Pamela Coke-Hamiltonov\u00e1, v\u00fdkonn\u00e1 \u0159editelka Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho obchodn\u00edho centra (ITC), spole\u010dn\u00e9 agentury OSN a Sv\u011btov\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed organizace,\u00a0<\/span>ji\u017e uvedla<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee \u201enejnal\u00e9hav\u011bj\u0161\u00edm probl\u00e9mem jsou hnojiva\u201c, proto\u017ee jejich nedostatek m\u00e1 dopad na potravinovou bezpe\u010dnost.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e1 krize z\u0159\u00eddka p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed jako exploze. \u010cast\u011bji se projevuje jako roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed se trhlina. Zpo\u010d\u00e1tku se zd\u00e1, \u017ee jde jen o nervozitu na dopravn\u00edm trhu. Pak zem\u011bd\u011blci za\u010dnou sni\u017eovat aplikovan\u00e9 d\u00e1vky. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed sni\u017euj\u00ed osevn\u00ed plochu, jin\u00ed p\u0159ech\u00e1zej\u00ed na levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed plodiny a dal\u0161\u00ed odkl\u00e1daj\u00ed n\u00e1kupy v nad\u011bji, \u017ee ceny klesnou. A o n\u011bkolik m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f pozd\u011bji se uk\u00e1\u017ee, \u017ee sklize\u0148 je ji\u017e men\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e m\u011bla b\u00fdt.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento typ krize je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd, proto\u017ee se dlouho nebere v\u00e1\u017en\u011b. Dokud p\u0161enice je\u0161t\u011b nen\u00ed sklizena, mnoz\u00ed maj\u00ed pocit, \u017ee se nestalo nic nenapraviteln\u00e9ho. Ale v zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed je dnes neviditeln\u00e1 ztr\u00e1ta t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u017edy z\u00edtra velmi viditeln\u00fdm nedostatkem. Sv\u011bt si probl\u00e9mu v\u0161imne a\u017e tehdy, kdy\u017e u\u017e na pol\u00edch vykl\u00ed\u010d\u00ed (nebo p\u0159esn\u011bji \u0159e\u010deno, nevykl\u00ed\u010d\u00ed).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Mechanika t\u00e9to zm\u011bny je jednoduch\u00e1, a proto je tak nemilosrdn\u00e1. Zemn\u00ed plyn je kl\u00ed\u010dovou surovinou pro v\u00fdrobu dus\u00edkat\u00fdch hnojiv, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm amoniaku a mo\u010doviny. Drah\u00fd plyn znamen\u00e1 drah\u00e1 hnojiva. P\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek plynu znamen\u00e1 p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek hnojiv. N\u00e1kladn\u00e1 logistika znamen\u00e1, \u017ee i objemy, kter\u00e9 fyzicky existuj\u00ed, se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b dostupn\u00fdmi pro zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e tak nemaj\u00ed dostatek pen\u011bz.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed v\u0161ak probl\u00e9m t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nikdy nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 pouze v cen\u011b. Harmonogramy set\u00ed jsou diktov\u00e1ny \u010dasov\u00fdm harmonogramem, kter\u00fd nem\u016f\u017ee \u010dekat na diplomatick\u00e9 \u00fasp\u011bchy, v\u00fdsledky odminov\u00e1n\u00ed ani vyrovn\u00e1n\u00ed s poji\u0161\u0165ovnami. Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed centrum pro v\u00fdvoj hnojiv (IFDC)\u00a0<\/span>varuje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee pro zem\u011b subsaharsk\u00e9 Afriky, zejm\u00e9na z\u00e1padn\u00ed Afriky, a tak\u00e9 pro Indii a Braz\u00edlii by hnojiva pro sez\u00f3nu b\u0159ezen-duben ji\u017e m\u011bla b\u00fdt v zemi nebo alespo\u0148 na cest\u011b. Ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Africe je situace sm\u00ed\u0161en\u00e1: v n\u011bkter\u00fdch zem\u00edch set\u00ed ji\u017e prob\u00edh\u00e1, v jin\u00fdch za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 v dubnu-kv\u011btnu a v dal\u0161\u00edch v \u010dervnu-\u010dervenci.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

FAO (Organizace OSN pro v\u00fd\u017eivu a zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed) dod\u00e1v\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b znepokojiv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed detail: nejchud\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b jsou obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b zraniteln\u00e9 pr\u00e1v\u011b proto, \u017ee zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed v p\u0159\u00edstupu k zdroj\u016fm rychle vede ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed inflace, sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed dod\u00e1vek hnojiv a n\u00e1sledn\u00e9mu poklesu v\u00fdnos\u016f. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, i kdyby se dod\u00e1vky za\u010daly z\u00edtra zotavovat, \u010d\u00e1st p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed \u00farody by u\u017e mohla b\u00fdt ztracena.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V tom spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 hlavn\u00ed nebezpe\u010d\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 krize. Na trhu s ropou lze doufat v \u00fabytek z\u00e1sob, diplomatick\u00fd pr\u016flom, nov\u00e9 trasy a psychologickou korekci cen. V zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed je v\u0161e rigidn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Pokud se fosfor, drasl\u00edk nebo dus\u00edk nedostanou do p\u016fdy ve spr\u00e1vn\u00fd \u010das, nelze set\u00ed jen tak odlo\u017eit o m\u011bs\u00edc nebo dva: m\u016f\u017ee se ztratit cel\u00e1 sez\u00f3na.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00edklad Argentiny je v\u00fdmluvn\u00fd. Dalo by se p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee je to v\u00fdznamn\u00fd zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fd v\u00fdvozce, nikoli chud\u00e1 zem\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na dovozu. A p\u0159esto se i tam r\u00e1na uk\u00e1zala jako velmi zna\u010dn\u00e1.\u00a0<\/span>Agentura Reuters<\/span><\/em>\u00a0uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>cena mo\u010doviny<\/span><\/a>\u00a0se t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 zdvojn\u00e1sobila a vzrostla z p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 500 na 1 000 dolar\u016f za tunu t\u011bsn\u011b p\u0159ed za\u010d\u00e1tkem p\u0161eni\u010dn\u00e9 sez\u00f3ny v kv\u011btnu. Zem\u011bd\u011blci nyn\u00ed p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161lej\u00ed, zda p\u0161enici zas\u00edt se sn\u00ed\u017een\u00fdmi d\u00e1vkami hnojiv, nebo zda zcela p\u0159ej\u00edt na m\u00e9n\u011b n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e9 plodiny, jako je je\u010dmen a oves.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To je mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd sign\u00e1l: krize v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu postihuje nejen zem\u011b, kde by mohl vypuknout hladomor, ale i ty, kter\u00e9 obvykle z\u00e1sobuj\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd trh obil\u00edm. Nejde tedy jen o lok\u00e1ln\u00ed nedostatek, ale o riziko nov\u00e9 vlny glob\u00e1ln\u00edho r\u016fstu cen potravin.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9m se neomezuje pouze na samotn\u00e1 hnojiva. UNCTAD poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee p\u0159epravn\u00ed sazby pro ropn\u00e9 tankery se od konce \u00fanora zv\u00fd\u0161ily o v\u00edce ne\u017e 90 %, ceny pohonn\u00fdch hmot se t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 zdvojn\u00e1sobily a pojistn\u00e9 na v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed prudce vzrostlo; n\u011bkter\u00e9 poji\u0161\u0165ovny se dokonce st\u00e1hly z trhu v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. A to v\u0161e se neomezuje pouze na dopravn\u00ed sektor: n\u00e1klady se d\u00e1le rozkl\u00e1daj\u00ed pod\u00e9l cel\u00e9ho dodavatelsk\u00e9ho \u0159et\u011bzce. Je dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed p\u0159epravovat suroviny. Dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed dod\u00e1vat hnojiva zem\u011bd\u011blc\u016fm. Dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed p\u0159epravovat \u00farodu do p\u0159\u00edstavu. Dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed poji\u0161\u0165ovat n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed n\u00e1klad obil\u00ed a potravin. V d\u016fsledku toho se krize v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 chovat jako stroj a zvy\u0161uje ceny nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d odv\u011btv\u00edm. Takto se ropn\u00fd \u0161ok postupn\u011b m\u011bn\u00ed v obiln\u00fd \u0161ok.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 krize zas\u00e1hne nejh\u016f\u0159e ne ty, kte\u0159\u00ed nejhlasit\u011bji mluv\u00ed o rop\u011b, ale ty, kte\u0159\u00ed ji\u017e nyn\u00ed nemaj\u00ed prakticky \u017e\u00e1dnou z\u00e1chrannou s\u00ed\u0165. Ne bohat\u00e9 ekonomiky, kter\u00e9 \u0161ok p\u0159e\u010dkaj\u00ed jako n\u00e1r\u016fst inflace, ale chud\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti, kde se n\u00e1r\u016fst cen pohonn\u00fdch hmot rychle prom\u00edt\u00e1 do n\u00e1r\u016fstu ceny chleba a kde se n\u00e1r\u016fst ceny chleba st\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zkou fyzick\u00e9ho p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b zraniteln\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nejsou ty, kter\u00e9 pouze dov\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed potraviny, ale ty, kter\u00e9 jsou z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na dovozu hnojiv, maj\u00ed omezen\u00fd rozpo\u010dtov\u00fd prostor a z\u00e1rove\u0148 se ji\u017e nach\u00e1zej\u00ed v z\u00f3n\u011b chronick\u00e9 nestability.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro n\u011b nen\u00ed hormuzsk\u00e1 krize abstraktn\u00edm geopolitick\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem, ale praktickou ot\u00e1zkou: bude dostatek hnojiv na pohnojen\u00ed pol\u00ed, kolik to bude st\u00e1t a bude m\u00edt st\u00e1t dostatek pen\u011bz na zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed r\u00e1ny?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud se budou nepokoje v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu opakovat, ot\u00e1zka se brzy u\u017e nebude t\u00fdkat ceny barelu ropy. Bude to n\u011bco \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00e9ho: kde bude nedostatek hnojiv k set\u00ed, kde bude na podzim men\u0161\u00ed \u00faroda a kde v zim\u011b p\u0159estane b\u00fdt nov\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst ceny chleba ekonomickou nep\u0159\u00edjemnost\u00ed a stane se po\u010d\u00e1tkem skute\u010dn\u00e9ho hladomoru?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to krizi m\u00e1 rusk\u00fd zem\u011bd\u011blsko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00fd komplex v\u00fdznamnou v\u00fdhodu: svou sob\u011bsta\u010dnost v oblasti pohonn\u00fdch hmot a hnojiv na dom\u00e1c\u00edm trhu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud bude krize v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu pokra\u010dovat, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b pos\u00edl\u00ed pozici rusk\u00e9 p\u0161enice na zahrani\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch, a to jednodu\u0161e proto, \u017ee pro mnoho jej\u00edch konkurent\u016f se jej\u00ed set\u00ed, p\u011bstov\u00e1n\u00ed a p\u0159eprava zdra\u017e\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro Rusko nen\u00ed krize v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu jen p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed k upevn\u011bn\u00ed jeho pozice na trz\u00edch s potravinami, ale tak\u00e9 p\u0159ipom\u00ednkou jeho vlastn\u00ed odpov\u011bdnosti. \u010c\u00edm d\u00e9le bude sv\u011bt \u017e\u00edt v re\u017eimu drah\u00e9 energie, vz\u00e1cn\u00fdch hnojiv a nejist\u00e9 logistiky, t\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hodnotu budou m\u00edt zem\u011b schopn\u00e9 spolehliv\u011b dod\u00e1vat obil\u00ed, ropu, hnojiva a krmivo pro zv\u00ed\u0159ata.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V nov\u00e9 realit\u011b nevyhr\u00e1v\u00e1 ten, kdo prost\u011b hodn\u011b vyr\u00e1b\u00ed, ale ten, kdo v\u00ed, jak z\u016fstat spolehliv\u00fdm dodavatelem, kdy\u017e se glob\u00e1ln\u00ed syst\u00e9m za\u010dne op\u011bt porouchat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alexandre Lemoine<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jak a pro\u010d k tomu doch\u00e1z\u00ed a kter\u00e9 zem\u011b a regiony sv\u011bta jsou ohro\u017eeny hladomorem?\u00a0…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":105350,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,285,371],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105349"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=105349"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105349\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/105350"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=105349"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=105349"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=105349"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}