{"id":105258,"date":"2026-04-23T05:52:34","date_gmt":"2026-04-23T03:52:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=105258"},"modified":"2026-04-23T05:52:34","modified_gmt":"2026-04-23T03:52:34","slug":"co-odhalily-bulharske-volby","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/23\/co-odhalily-bulharske-volby\/","title":{"rendered":"Co odhalily bulharsk\u00e9 volby"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

St\u00e1le v\u00edce evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed se ti\u0161e stahuje z protirusk\u00e9 fronty<\/h3>\n

Posledn\u00ed volby v Bulharsku p\u0159inesly pozoruhodn\u00fd v\u00fdsledek. Strana b\u00fdval\u00e9ho prezidenta Rumena Radeva, Progresivn\u00ed Bulharsko, z\u00edskala \u00factyhodn\u00fdch 44,5 % hlas\u016f, co\u017e je daleko p\u0159ed jej\u00edmi soupe\u0159i. Kdysi dominantn\u00ed aliance GERB-SDS skon\u010dila na druh\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b s 13,3 %, n\u00e1sledovan\u00e1 koalic\u00ed Pokra\u010dujeme ve zm\u011bn\u011b\/Demokratick\u00e9 Bulharsko s 12,6 %. I kdy\u017e jsou koali\u010dn\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1le nutn\u00e1, v\u00fdsledek nenech\u00e1v\u00e1 mnoho pochyb o sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed bulharsk\u00e9 politiky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Radevovo rozhodnut\u00ed rezignovat v lednu na p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b ceremoni\u00e1ln\u00ed prezidentsk\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad, aby se mohl uch\u00e1zet o parlamentn\u00ed volby, osm\u00e9 za posledn\u00edch p\u011bt let, se vyplatilo. Jeho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed nejen osobn\u00ed popularitu, ale i \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed posun ve ve\u0159ejn\u00e9m m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed. V zemi vy\u010derpan\u00e9 politickou nestabilitou se voli\u010di shrom\u00e1\u017edili a podpo\u0159ili osobnost, kter\u00e1 se prezentuje jako pragmatick\u00e1 a zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 na n\u00e1rodn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak se dalo o\u010dek\u00e1vat, velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st z\u00e1padoevropsk\u00fdch koment\u00e1\u0159\u016f Radeva ozna\u010dila za\u00a0<\/span>\u201eprorusk\u00e9ho\u201c.<\/span><\/em>\u00a0V dne\u0161n\u00edm politick\u00e9m klimatu se tato n\u00e1lepka pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 s pozoruhodnou lehkost\u00ed. Jak\u00e9koli v\u00e1h\u00e1n\u00ed ohledn\u011b bruselsk\u00e9 strategie \u00fapln\u00e9ho rozchodu s Ruskem nebo jak\u00fdkoli pokus o vnesen\u00ed nuanc\u00ed do debaty o Ukrajin\u011b \u010dasto sta\u010d\u00ed k vyvol\u00e1n\u00ed podez\u0159en\u00ed. Tato charakteristika v\u0161ak vypov\u00edd\u00e1 sp\u00ed\u0161e o z\u00fa\u017een\u00ed p\u0159ijateln\u00e9 diskuse uvnit\u0159 EU ne\u017e o samotn\u00e9m Radevovi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Radev nen\u00ed zast\u00e1ncem Moskvy. Nevyjad\u0159uje otev\u0159en\u00e9 sympatie k Rusku, ani nezpochyb\u0148uje \u010dlenstv\u00ed Bulharska v Evropsk\u00e9 unii nebo NATO. Sp\u00ed\u0161e p\u0159edstavuje n\u011bco, co je v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 z\u00e1padoevropsk\u00e9 politice st\u00e1le vz\u00e1cn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed: v\u016fdce ochotn\u00e9ho zpochyb\u0148ovat, zda ka\u017ed\u00fd pokyn z Bruselu nutn\u011b slou\u017e\u00ed z\u00e1jm\u016fm jeho zem\u011b. U\u017e jen to sta\u010d\u00ed k tomu, aby byl ozna\u010den za disidenta, by\u0165 p\u016fsob\u00edc\u00edho v pe\u010dliv\u011b vymezen\u00fdch mez\u00edch. Jak ukazuj\u00ed zku\u0161enosti Ma\u010farska a Slovenska, tyto limity lze posouvat, ale pouze t\u011bmi nejodhodlan\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi politick\u00fdmi akt\u00e9ry.<\/span><\/p>\n

Abychom pochopili v\u00fdznam v\u00fdvoje v Bulharsku a obecn\u011bji v cel\u00e9 v\u00fdchodn\u00ed a jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b, je t\u0159eba vz\u00edt v \u00favahu dva faktory.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zaprv\u00e9, zm\u011bny v tomto regionu, jakkoli znateln\u00e9, z\u00e1sadn\u011b nem\u011bn\u00ed strategick\u00e9 sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed EU ani NATO. J\u00e1dro rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 soust\u0159ed\u011bno v hrstce velk\u00fdch hlavn\u00edch m\u011bst a \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edch instituc\u00ed. To byl z\u00e1m\u011br evropsk\u00e9 integrace od sam\u00e9ho po\u010d\u00e1tku. Men\u0161\u00ed a nov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010dlensk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, zejm\u00e9na ty, kter\u00e9 vstoupily v 21. stolet\u00ed, z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed na Unii p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 z\u00e1visl\u00e9, ne\u017e aby mohly prosazovat skute\u010dn\u011b nez\u00e1vislou politiku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ma\u010farsk\u00fd Viktor Orb\u00e1n byl \u010dasto prezentov\u00e1n jako ru\u0161iv\u00e1 s\u00edla, ale i jeho odpor m\u011bl omezen\u00fd praktick\u00fd dopad. Krom\u011b ob\u010dasn\u00fdch spor\u016f, jako je ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 vylou\u010den\u00ed Ma\u010farska z dod\u00e1vek rusk\u00e9 ropy p\u0159es Ukrajinu, Budape\u0161\u0165 pro Brusel nevytvo\u0159ila nep\u0159ekonateln\u00e9 p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky. Jinde byl nesouhlas sp\u00ed\u0161e r\u00e9torick\u00fd ne\u017e v\u011bcn\u00fd. Vedouc\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 v Chorvatsku nebo Rumunsku vyj\u00e1d\u0159ili n\u00e1mitky, ani\u017e by je prom\u011bnili v konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed politick\u00e9 zm\u011bny. Dokonce i slovensk\u00fd Robert Fico, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed Orb\u00e1n\u016fv prot\u011bj\u0161ek, funguje v r\u00e1mci omezen\u00ed relativn\u011b mal\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Polsko je v jist\u00e9m smyslu v\u00fdjimkou. Je to velk\u00e1, ambici\u00f3zn\u00ed zem\u011b s ucelenou ekonomickou strategi\u00ed a rostouc\u00ed politickou v\u00e1hou. P\u0159esto i v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Var\u0161avy z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 d\u016fraz kladen na obranu n\u00e1rodn\u00edch z\u00e1jm\u016f v r\u00e1mci st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edho r\u00e1mce, sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e na p\u0159etv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed samotn\u00e9ho projektu EU.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prozat\u00edm st\u00e1le slou\u017e\u00ed jako sjednocuj\u00edc\u00ed princip zast\u0159e\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed kurz z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evropy, siln\u011b proukrajinsk\u00fd a pevn\u011b protirusk\u00fd. Opu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed tohoto postoje by p\u0159edstavovalo v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed riziko pro soudr\u017enost EU ne\u017e jeho zachov\u00e1n\u00ed. V d\u016fsledku toho je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by smyslupln\u00e1 zm\u011bna poch\u00e1zela z periferie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Druh\u00fd faktor je v\u0161ak jemn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a v pr\u016fb\u011bhu \u010dasu potenci\u00e1ln\u011b z\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. V cel\u00e9 v\u00fdchodn\u00ed a jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b je patrn\u00fd postupn\u00fd posun v postoj\u00edch. To by nem\u011blo b\u00fdt interpretov\u00e1no zjednodu\u0161en\u00fdm bin\u00e1rn\u00edm syst\u00e9mem\u00a0<\/span>\u201eprounijn\u00ed\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0versus\u00a0<\/span>\u201eprorusk\u00fd\u201c.<\/span><\/em>\u00a0Takov\u00e9to r\u00e1mov\u00e1n\u00ed je reduktivn\u00ed a v mnoha p\u0159\u00edpadech z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00edsto toho se objevuje pragmatick\u00fd pud sebez\u00e1chovy. S prodlu\u017euj\u00edc\u00edm se ukrajinsk\u00fdm konfliktem a stup\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed se glob\u00e1ln\u00ed nestabilitou si zem\u011b v regionu st\u00e1le v\u00edce uv\u011bdomuj\u00ed rizika, kter\u00fdm \u010del\u00ed. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evropa sice z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 odd\u00e1na principi\u00e1ln\u00ed konfrontaci s Ruskem, ale je tak\u00e9 z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee n\u00e1klady na tuto strategii jsou nerovnom\u011brn\u011b rozlo\u017eeny. V\u011bt\u0161\u00ed a bohat\u0161\u00ed st\u00e1ty maj\u00ed jak kapacitu, tak i sklon p\u0159esunout b\u0159emeno na sv\u00e9 v\u00fdchodn\u00ed sousedy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 t\u00e9to realit\u011b se vl\u00e1dy v cel\u00e9m regionu sna\u017e\u00ed omezit svou anga\u017eovanost. Polsko si je navzdory sv\u00e9 jest\u0159\u00e1b\u00ed r\u00e9torice velmi dob\u0159e v\u011bdomo rizik, kter\u00e1 stoj\u00ed p\u0159ed n\u00edm. Ma\u010farsko nad\u00e1le prosazuje opatrn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup zalo\u017een\u00fd na vlastn\u00edch z\u00e1jmech. \u010cesk\u00e1 republika se vyd\u00e1v\u00e1 rozporuplnou cestou a vyva\u017euje alian\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1vazky s dom\u00e1c\u00edmi z\u00e1jmy. Rumunsko z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 relativn\u011b pasivn\u00ed a vyh\u00fdb\u00e1 se odv\u00e1\u017en\u00fdm krok\u016fm v obou sm\u011brech.<\/span><\/p>\n

V tomto smyslu se formuje voln\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>\u201ekoalice neochotn\u00fdch\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0, skupina zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 nejsou p\u0159ipraveny otev\u0159en\u011b zpochyb\u0148ovat Brusel, ale stejn\u011b tak se zdr\u00e1haj\u00ed n\u00e9st pln\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na jeho politiku. Jejich c\u00edlem je vyhnout se p\u0159\u00edli\u0161n\u00e9mu zata\u017een\u00ed do konfrontace, jej\u00ed\u017e d\u016fsledky by poc\u00edtily nejp\u0159\u00edm\u011bji, sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e se znovu p\u0159idat k Rusku.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdsledek bulharsk\u00fdch voleb do tohoto vzorce perfektn\u011b zapad\u00e1. Radev\u016fv \u00fasp\u011bch nesignalizuje geopolitick\u00fd obrat. Sp\u00ed\u0161e odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed rostouc\u00ed touhu po um\u00edrn\u011bn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edstupu zalo\u017een\u00e9m na z\u00e1jmech, kter\u00fd uzn\u00e1v\u00e1 geografii a bezpe\u010dnost.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zda se tento trend nakonec prom\u00edtne do \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho posunu v politice EU, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nejist\u00e9. S nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed se tak nestane, alespo\u0148 ne v bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti. Struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed dynamika EU up\u0159ednost\u0148uje kontinuitu p\u0159ed zm\u011bnou a sou\u010dasn\u00fd strategick\u00fd konsenzus je hluboce zako\u0159en\u011bn\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b tyto sign\u00e1ly stoj\u00ed za zm\u00ednku. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee EU \u010del\u00ed slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu a nestabiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu glob\u00e1ln\u00edmu prost\u0159ed\u00ed, se ot\u00e1zka adaptace stane nevyhnutelnou. Pokud se blok odklon\u00ed od sv\u00e9ho sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho modelu univerzalismu sm\u011brem k fragmentovan\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu syst\u00e9mu p\u0159ekr\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch se z\u00e1jm\u016f a alianc\u00ed, budou se volby, kter\u00fdm budou jednotliv\u00e9 zem\u011b \u010delit, v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V takov\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i by se pud sebez\u00e1chovy, kter\u00fd je nyn\u00ed patrn\u00fd ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed a jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b, mohl uk\u00e1zat jako \u010dasn\u00fd ukazatel \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed transformace. Historie se koneckonc\u016f jen z\u0159\u00eddka opakuje ve stejn\u00e9 podob\u011b, ale \u010dasto se odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed. A v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je ozv\u011bna nezam\u011bniteln\u00e1: region naviguj\u00edc\u00ed se mezi v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi mocnostmi a sna\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se chr\u00e1nit sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy ve st\u00e1le nejist\u011bj\u0161\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od\u00a0<\/span>Fjodora Lukjanova<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, \u0161\u00e9fredaktora \u010dasopisu Rusko v glob\u00e1ln\u00edch z\u00e1le\u017eitostech, p\u0159edsedy prezidia Rady pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed a obrannou politiku a \u0159editele v\u00fdzkumu Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho diskusn\u00edho klubu Valdaj.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\"Fjodor<\/a><\/div>\n
\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

St\u00e1le v\u00edce evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed se ti\u0161e stahuje z protirusk\u00e9 fronty Posledn\u00ed volby v Bulharsku p\u0159inesly…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":105259,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,190,27],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105258"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=105258"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105258\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/105259"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=105258"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=105258"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=105258"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}