{"id":104925,"date":"2026-04-20T00:14:05","date_gmt":"2026-04-19T22:14:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=104925"},"modified":"2026-04-19T14:49:59","modified_gmt":"2026-04-19T12:49:59","slug":"larry-c-johnson-hormuzsky-pruliv-je-opet-uzavren-iran-to-mysli-vazne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/20\/larry-c-johnson-hormuzsky-pruliv-je-opet-uzavren-iran-to-mysli-vazne\/","title":{"rendered":"Larry C. Johnson: Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv je op\u011bt uzav\u0159en\u2026 \u00cdr\u00e1n to mysl\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Dva obr\u00e1zky vlo\u017een\u00e9 n\u00ed\u017ee ukazuj\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, kdy\u017e byl \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b otev\u0159en\u00fd, a nyn\u00ed, kdy\u017e je uzav\u0159en\u00fd. Na kr\u00e1tk\u00fd okam\u017eik v p\u00e1tek 17. dubna 2026 Donald Trump pronesl polopravdu\u2026 Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv byl otev\u0159en pro lodn\u00ed dopravu \u2013 ale pouze plavidl\u016fm, kter\u00e1 byla koordinov\u00e1na s \u00edr\u00e1nskou revolu\u010dn\u00ed gardou a kter\u00e1 k tomu m\u011bla povolen\u00ed.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv 17. dubna 2026<\/span><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"Hormuzsk\u00fd
Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, 18. dubna 2026<\/span><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

To v\u0161e n\u00e1hle skon\u010dilo v sobotu 18. dubna pot\u00e9, co Donald Trump pohrozil blok\u00e1dou v\u0161ech \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f. V posledn\u00edch hodin\u00e1ch jejich setk\u00e1n\u00ed v Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du dal \u00cdr\u00e1n J. D. Vanceovi jednozna\u010dn\u011b najevo, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd desetibodov\u00fd pl\u00e1n je nevyjedn\u00e1vateln\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Naru\u0161en\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edho dodavatelsk\u00e9ho \u0159et\u011bzce zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nskou blok\u00e1dou si v\u011bt\u0161ina lid\u00ed pln\u011b neuv\u011bdomuje. P\u0159irovn\u00e1v\u00e1m to k nemoci z oz\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed: P\u0159edstavte si, \u017ee n\u011bkdo p\u0159e\u017eije v\u00fdbuch atomov\u00e9 bomby, ale pot\u00e9 je bombardov\u00e1n radiac\u00ed. M\u016f\u017ee trvat dny nebo t\u00fddny, ne\u017e se smrt\u00edc\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinky za\u010dnou projevovat. V tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je ob\u011bt\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd, finan\u010dn\u00ed a pr\u016fmyslov\u00fd syst\u00e9m. N\u00e1vrat v\u00fdvozu z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu na p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dnou \u00farove\u0148 bude trvat m\u011bs\u00edce (\u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 obnoven\u00ed dod\u00e1vek ropy) a\u017e n\u011bkolik let (\u00fapln\u00e1 normalizace dod\u00e1vek LNG, mo\u010doviny a h\u00e9lia). To je zp\u016fsobeno kombinac\u00ed fyzick\u00e9ho ni\u010den\u00ed, logistick\u00fdch \u00fazk\u00fdch m\u00edst, bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch rizik a politick\u00fdch d\u016fsledk\u016f \u00edr\u00e1nsko-ir\u00e1ck\u00e9 v\u00e1lky z roku 2026 (\u00fanor a\u017e duben 2026). N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed text vysv\u011btluje faktory, kter\u00e9 br\u00e1n\u00ed okam\u017eit\u00e9mu n\u00e1vratu k objem\u016fm v\u00fdvozu z 27. \u00fanora.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 fyzick\u00e9 po\u0161kozen\u00ed kritick\u00e9 infrastruktury<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Americk\u00e9 a izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky, stejn\u011b jako \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 proti\u00fatoky, zas\u00e1hly rafinerie, skladovac\u00ed n\u00e1dr\u017ee, ropovody, ropovody, ropn\u00e1 a plynov\u00e1 pole a zpracovatelsk\u00e9 z\u00e1vody v nejm\u00e9n\u011b dev\u00edti zem\u00edch Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu.<\/span><\/p>\n

K nejv\u00e1\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00edm \u0161kod\u00e1m do\u0161lo v pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9m m\u011bst\u011b Ras Laffan v Kataru, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm p\u0159ekladi\u0161ti LNG na sv\u011bt\u011b. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 \u00fatoky v b\u0159eznu 2026 znemo\u017enily 17 procent katarsk\u00e9 exportn\u00ed kapacity LNG (12,8 milionu tun ro\u010dn\u011b). Gener\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159editel spole\u010dnosti QatarEnergy uvedl, \u017ee opravy budou trvat t\u0159i a\u017e p\u011bt let, \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b proto, \u017ee kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 komponenty \u2013 jako jsou turb\u00edny \u2013 jsou vysoce specializovan\u00e9 a obt\u00ed\u017en\u011b se rychle vym\u011b\u0148uj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato jedin\u00e1 elektr\u00e1rna tak\u00e9 produkuje velkou \u010d\u00e1st sv\u011btov\u00e9 produkce h\u00e9lia (jako vedlej\u0161\u00ed produkt p\u0159i zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed zemn\u00edho plynu) a v\u00fdznamn\u011b ovliv\u0148uje produkci mo\u010doviny a amoniaku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pomal\u00e9 odminov\u00e1n\u00ed a ov\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n b\u011bhem konfliktu polo\u017eil rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch min. I p\u0159es pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed americkou podporu odminov\u00e1n\u00ed jsou profesion\u00e1ln\u00ed protiminov\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed ze sv\u00e9 podstaty \u010dasov\u011b n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e1 a vy\u017eaduj\u00ed opakovan\u00e9 prohl\u00eddky, aby byla zaji\u0161t\u011bna bezpe\u010dnost.<\/span><\/p>\n

K 18. a 19. dubnu 2026 z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 lodn\u00ed doprava minim\u00e1ln\u00ed, a to i p\u0159es \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed o \u201eotev\u0159en\u00ed se\u201c. Velk\u00e9 p\u0159epravn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b BIMCO a norsk\u00fdch pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch sdru\u017een\u00ed \u2013 i nad\u00e1le trvaj\u00ed na prok\u00e1z\u00e1n\u00ed schv\u00e1len\u00fdch tras, dodr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed smluv \u00cdr\u00e1nem a sn\u00ed\u017een\u00fdch rizik p\u0159ed nasazen\u00edm plavidel.<\/span><\/p>\n

Poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, rizikov\u00e9 pr\u00e9mie a p\u0159epravn\u00ed logistika<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Pojistn\u00e9 na poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch rizik prudce vzrostlo (z p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 0,125 na 0,2 a\u017e 0,4 procenta hodnoty lodi na jednu plavbu). Mnoho poji\u0161\u0165oven se na vrcholu krize zcela st\u00e1hlo od poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tankery a pos\u00e1dky byly rozpt\u00fdleny po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b; standardn\u00ed trasou se stalo obeplut\u00ed Afriky. Obnoven\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bry, nov\u00e9 vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed smluv a odvol\u00e1n\u00ed zku\u0161en\u00fdch pos\u00e1dek trv\u00e1 m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010casov\u00e9 r\u00e1mce specifick\u00e9 pro suroviny<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ropa:<\/span><\/em>\u00a0N\u011bkter\u00e9 vrty lze znovu zprovoznit b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika dn\u00ed nebo t\u00fddn\u016f, ale \u00fapln\u00e1 obnova z\u00e1sobovac\u00edho syst\u00e9mu v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu \u2013 po\u0161kozen\u00e1 pole a logistika \u2013 bude trvat n\u011bkolik m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f a\u017e jeden a\u017e dva roky.<\/span><\/p>\n

LNG:<\/span><\/em>\u00a0Dominuje Katar; kompletn\u00ed oprava Ras Laffan: t\u0159i a\u017e p\u011bt let.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mo\u010dovina (hnojivo):<\/span><\/em>\u00a0Souvis\u00ed se zemn\u00edm plynem; Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv dod\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 45 a\u017e 46 procent sv\u011btov\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edho obchodu s mo\u010dovinou. Obnoven\u00ed provozu v kombinaci se zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm lodn\u00ed dopravy znamen\u00e1 nedostatek trvaj\u00edc\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/span><\/p>\n

H\u00e9lium:<\/span><\/em>\u00a0Katar dod\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 30 a\u017e 33 procent sv\u011btov\u00e9 produkce. \u0160kody v Ras Laffan znamenaj\u00ed t\u0159i a\u017e p\u011bt let nebo i v\u00edce prostoj\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd dopad naru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

V\u00fdpadek \u2013 kter\u00fd ve sv\u00e9m vrcholu postihl p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 20 procent sv\u011btov\u00e9 ropy, zhruba 20 procent LNG a v\u00fdznamn\u00fd pod\u00edl mo\u010doviny a helia \u2013 spustil nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u0161ok v dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch v modern\u00ed historii energetiky a m\u00e1 d\u016fsledky daleko za hranice cen paliv.<\/span><\/p>\n

Riziko inflace cen energi\u00ed a stagflace:<\/span><\/em>\u00a0Ceny ropy prudce vzrostly (Brent kr\u00e1tce p\u0159ekro\u010dil 120 dolar\u016f za barel); ceny LNG v Asii vzrostly o v\u00edce ne\u017e 140 procent. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady na dopravu, elekt\u0159inu a v\u00fdrobu se odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed v obecn\u00e9 inflaci a z\u00e1rove\u0148 tlum\u00ed r\u016fst.<\/span><\/p>\n

R\u016fst cen potravin v d\u016fsledku nedostatku mo\u010doviny:<\/span><\/em>\u00a0Oblast Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu dod\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 20 a\u017e 46 procent sv\u011btov\u00e9 produkce komer\u010dn\u00edch hnojiv. Nedostatek ji\u017e vedl k zastaven\u00ed v\u00fdroby v Indii, Banglad\u00e9\u0161i a P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu. Zem\u011bd\u011blci v zem\u00edch z\u00e1visl\u00fdch na dovozu \u2013 Indii, Braz\u00edlii a \u010d\u00e1stech Afriky \u2013 \u010del\u00ed men\u0161\u00ed plo\u0161e obd\u011bl\u00e1van\u00e9 p\u016fdy nebo vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm n\u00e1klad\u016fm, co\u017e povede k vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm celosv\u011btov\u00fdm cen\u00e1m potravin v letech 2026 a 2027.<\/span><\/p>\n

Naru\u0161en\u00ed technologi\u00ed a zdravotnictv\u00ed v d\u016fsledku nedostatku h\u00e9lia:<\/span><\/em>\u00a0H\u00e9lium je nezbytn\u00e9 pro v\u00fdrobu polovodi\u010d\u016f (chlazen\u00ed a v\u00fdroba \u010dip\u016f), p\u0159\u00edstroje pro magnetickou rezonanci (supravodiv\u00e9 magnety), optick\u00e9 kabely, sva\u0159ovac\u00ed technologii a leteck\u00fd pr\u016fmysl. Nedostatek ji\u017e nyn\u00ed ovliv\u0148uje dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce; v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch letech se o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed ve zdravotnictv\u00ed a zpomalen\u00ed v\u00fdroby \u010dip\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezi dalekos\u00e1hl\u00e9 d\u016fsledky pat\u0159\u00ed<\/span><\/em>\u00a0naru\u0161en\u00ed dodavatelsk\u00e9ho \u0159et\u011bzce, vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 ceny (paliva, potraviny, l\u00e9ka\u0159sk\u00e9 z\u00e1kroky), utlumen\u00fd r\u016fst HDP v Asii a Evrop\u011b (nejv\u00edce zasa\u017een\u00fdch regionech) a potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed recesn\u00ed tlak ve zraniteln\u00fdch ekonomik\u00e1ch. USA tak\u00e9 poci\u0165uj\u00ed nep\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 dopady prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm glob\u00e1ln\u00edch komoditn\u00edch trh\u016f, a to i p\u0159es svou ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edmou z\u00e1vislost.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno: I kdyby USA splnily po\u017eadavky \u00cdr\u00e1nu a Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv byl v pond\u011bl\u00ed 20. dubna znovu otev\u0159en pro pravidelnou lodn\u00ed dopravu, kombinace v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch \u0161kod (zejm\u00e9na v Ras Laffan), p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch a pojistn\u00fdch obav a politick\u00fdch d\u016fsledk\u016f znamen\u00e1, \u017ee \u00fapln\u00e1 normalizace v\u00fdvozu je proces, kter\u00fd bude trvat n\u011bkolik \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed a\u017e n\u011bkolik let \u2013 nikoli rychl\u00fd obrat. V\u00fdhled glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiky je bez\u00fat\u011b\u0161n\u00fd a bude se zhor\u0161ovat, \u010d\u00edm d\u00e9le bude tato v\u00e1lka trvat.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dva obr\u00e1zky vlo\u017een\u00e9 n\u00ed\u017ee ukazuj\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, kdy\u017e byl \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b otev\u0159en\u00fd, a nyn\u00ed, kdy\u017e je…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":101544,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[6382,38,1503],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104925"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=104925"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104925\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101544"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=104925"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=104925"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=104925"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}