{"id":104915,"date":"2026-04-19T05:12:30","date_gmt":"2026-04-19T03:12:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=104915"},"modified":"2026-04-19T05:33:18","modified_gmt":"2026-04-19T03:33:18","slug":"pavel-sik-iransky-narativ-padl-a-je-zajimave-jak-to-velci-hraci-prechazeji-mlcenim","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/19\/pavel-sik-iransky-narativ-padl-a-je-zajimave-jak-to-velci-hraci-prechazeji-mlcenim\/","title":{"rendered":"Pavel \u0160ik: \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd narativ padl a je zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, jak to velc\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010di p\u0159ech\u00e1zej\u00ed ml\u010den\u00edm\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 propaganda n\u00e1s od za\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dovala o jednom: \u00cdr\u00e1n je monolitick\u00fd syst\u00e9m s jedn\u00edm mocensk\u00fdm centrem, jednou v\u016fl\u00ed a jednou strategi\u00ed. V\u0161echno ostatn\u00ed jsou pr\u00fd dezinformace nep\u0159\u00e1tel.<\/p>\n

V\u010dera v\u00a0pln\u00e9 nahot\u011b padla opona<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Nic jako jeden \u00cdr\u00e1n neexistuje. Je\u0161t\u011b jednou k\u00a0zopakov\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Arag\u010d\u00ed v\u010dera zve\u0159ejnil anglick\u00fd tweet o\u00a0svobod\u011b plavby Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem a\u00a0Trump to okam\u017eit\u011b p\u0159iv\u00edtal jako d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 gesto.<\/p>\n

A pak se stalo n\u011bco, co v\u00a0\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m medi\u00e1ln\u00edm prostoru prakticky nem\u00e1 precedens. Na Arag\u010d\u00edho se nevrhla jen agentura revolu\u010dn\u00edch gard Fars, jak jsem v\u010dera psal, sesypaly se na n\u011bj krom\u011b samotn\u00fdch gard hned t\u0159i agentury najednou \u2013 Fars, Mehr a\u00a0Tasnim. Tasnim, rovn\u011b\u017e bl\u00edzk\u00e1 IRGC, ozna\u010dila tweet za \u201c\u0161patn\u00fd a\u00a0ne\u00fapln\u00fd\u201d a\u00a0podle Mehr News pr\u00fd \u201cposkytl Trumpovi nejlep\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost p\u0159ekonat realitu a\u00a0prohl\u00e1sit se za v\u00edt\u011bze v\u00e1lky.\u201d<\/p>\n

T\u0159i agentury, t\u0159i r\u016fzn\u00e9 institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed vazby se stejn\u00fdm c\u00edlem zpochybnit navenek pragmatick\u00e9 k\u0159\u00eddlo, proto\u017ee sm\u011brem dovnit\u0159 internet prakticky nefunguje a\u00a0Twitter je blokovan\u00fd. A\u00a0to je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 si uv\u011bdomit, cel\u00e1 tato v\u00fdm\u011bna prob\u00edhala v\u00a0situaci, kdy \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 ve\u0159ejnost internet prakticky nem\u00e1. Arag\u010d\u00ed tedy nepsal pro \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ob\u010dany a\u00a0gardy zareagovaly v\u00a0per\u0161tin\u011b, skrze dom\u00e1c\u00ed agentury tak\u00e9 pro zahrani\u010d\u00ed, proto\u017ee dom\u00e1c\u00ed publikum jejich zpr\u00e1vy \u010d\u00edst\u00a0nem\u016f\u017ee.<\/p>\n

D\u016fvod jejich reakce nen\u00ed t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 pochopit, gardy byly s\u00a0velkou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed mimo rozhodovac\u00ed proces.<\/p>\n

Byl to sign\u00e1l?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Arag\u010d\u00ed nen\u00ed komunika\u010dn\u00ed nov\u00e1\u010dek. Je to zku\u0161en\u00fd diplomat, kter\u00fd pro\u0161el jadern\u00fdm vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm v\u00a0roce 2015 i\u00a0n\u011bkolika politick\u00fdmi cykly. Musel tu\u0161it, co se stane, kdy\u017e zve\u0159ejn\u00ed anglick\u00fd tweet bez p\u0159edchoz\u00ed konzultace s\u00a0gardami. Nemohl nev\u011bd\u011bt.<\/p>\n

Pokud to byl z\u00e1m\u011br, logika by se v\u00a0tom dala naj\u00edt. Navenek to byl vzkaz Washingtonu, Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du, Rij\u00e1du, pot\u0159eboval sv\u011btu uk\u00e1zat, \u017ee pragmatick\u00e1 linie v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu existuje, je funk\u010dn\u00ed a\u00a0z\u00e1rove\u0148 doc\u00edlil, \u017ee hardline\u0159i i\u00a0gardy sami ve\u0159ejn\u011b demonstrovali, \u017ee nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed velen\u00ed v\u00a0podob\u011b v\u016fdce neexistuje.<\/p>\n

Zaj\u00edmav\u00fd je v tomto ohledu no\u010dn\u00ed Tweet Ghalibafa. Jeho post byl konstruov\u00e1n mistrn\u011b vzhledem k teher\u00e1nsk\u00e9mu divadlu propagandy. Sice Trumpovy tvrzen\u00ed ozna\u010dil za l\u017ei a zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee pr\u016fliv otev\u0159ou a zav\u0159ou \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly a ne soci\u00e1ln\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b. Ale nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je posledn\u00ed bod, kter\u00fd uvedl. Jako autoritativn\u00ed zdroj informac\u00ed o jedn\u00e1n\u00edch ozna\u010dil mluv\u010d\u00edho ministerstva zahrani\u010d\u00ed, tedy Arag\u010d\u00edho resort. Ghalibaf zachra\u0148oval situaci, ale zachra\u0148oval ji t\u00edm, \u017ee se p\u0159ihl\u00e1sil ke stejn\u00e9 pragmatick\u00e9 linii, jej\u00ed\u017e komunikaci pr\u00e1v\u011b kritizoval.<\/p>\n

V\u0161ichni hr\u00e1\u010di v\u00a0regionu to v\u011bd\u00ed<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Za\u010d\u00e1tkem dubna byla vypu\u0161t\u011bna rafinovan\u00e1 informace, \u017ee Mod\u017etaba je na\u017eivu, je zapojen do rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed a\u00a0byl to on, kdo na\u0159\u00eddil jednat v\u00a0Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du. Z\u00a0dne\u0161n\u00edho pohledu jsme byli sv\u011bdky z\u0159ejm\u011b zpravodajsk\u00e9 hry, jak dostat gardy pod tlak, aby nesabotovaly jedn\u00e1n\u00ed a\u00a0lze p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee nikoli bez v\u011bdom\u00ed pragmatick\u00e9ho k\u0159\u00eddla v\u00a0Teher\u00e1nu, kter\u00e9 m\u011blo stejn\u00fd z\u00e1jem. Velen\u00ed gard nemohlo p\u0159iznat, \u017ee Mod\u017etaba nefunguje, proto\u017ee to jsou gardy, kdo ho \u00fadajn\u011b ochra\u0148uj\u00ed, kdo psal jeho tweety a\u00a0kdo k\u00a0n\u011bmu necht\u011bl pustit ani samotn\u00e9ho prezidenta.<\/p>\n

V\u0161ichni kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010di v\u00a0regionu tedy ji\u017e del\u0161\u00ed dobu v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00a0Teher\u00e1nu chyb\u00ed jednotn\u00e9 velen\u00ed a\u00a0pragmatici opatrn\u011b soupe\u0159\u00ed s\u00a0hardlinery tak, aby situaci zvl\u00e1dli bez vojensk\u00e9ho pu\u010de, kter\u00fd by pragmatickou linii zcela vy\u0159adil. Z\u00a0tohoto pohledu je tak\u00e9 mnohem srozumiteln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, pro\u010d \u0161\u00e9f gard Vahidi \u201cvnutil\u201d do isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1dsk\u00e9 delegace sv\u00e9ho \u0161peha Zolghadra, tajemn\u00edka SNSC i\u00a0p\u0159es v\u00fdhrady samotn\u00e9ho Ghalibafa a\u00a0Arag\u010d\u00edho k\u00a0jeho absenci diplomatick\u00fdch zku\u0161enost\u00ed, kter\u00fd i\u00a0\u00fadajn\u011b isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1dsk\u00e9 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1sledn\u011b sabotoval a\u00a0pod\u00e1val zpr\u00e1vy gard\u00e1m do Teher\u00e1nu.<\/p>\n

P\u0159i zp\u011btn\u00e9m pohledu tak komunikace Sa\u00fad\u016f, Turk\u016f o\u00a0Egyp\u0165an\u016f jako i\u00a0n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bva p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho velitele arm\u00e1dy Munira p\u0159edev\u010d\u00edrem v\u00a0Teher\u00e1nu, p\u0159i\u00a0kter\u00e9 jednal s\u00a0Arag\u010d\u00edm a\u00a0Ghalibafem bez jedin\u00e9ho setk\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0gardami, d\u00e1v\u00e1 mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed smysl.<\/p>\n

Jin\u00fdmi slovy \u2013 cel\u00e1 region\u00e1ln\u00ed diplomacie posledn\u00edch t\u00fddn\u016f byla vedena s\u00a0tich\u00fdm v\u011bdom\u00edm, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 centrum moci je pr\u00e1zdn\u00e9 a\u00a0Mod\u017etaba neexistuje. V\u0161ichni \u2013 P\u00e1kist\u00e1nci, Sa\u00fadov\u00e9, Egyp\u0165an\u00e9, Turci, Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 a\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b i\u00a0\u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 to v\u00ed a\u00a0velmi opatrn\u011b a\u00a0koordinovan\u011b pracuj\u00ed na tom, aby gardy byly postupn\u011b fakticky odstaveny od rozhodovac\u00edho procesu.<\/p>\n

To je historicky mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e1 situace. \u00cdr\u00e1n po\u00a0desetilet\u00ed prezentoval obraz monolitick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu s\u00a0jedn\u00edm nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edm v\u016fdcem jako z\u00e1rukou stability a\u00a0p\u0159edv\u00eddatelnosti. V\u010dera tento narativ nezboural \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd nep\u0159\u00edtel. Zbouraly ho gardy v\u00a0afektu na vlastn\u00edch platform\u00e1ch a\u00a0potvrdily zp\u016fsob, jak\u00fdm cel\u00fd region ti\u0161e reorganizuje svou diplomatickou choreografii kolem pr\u00e1zdn\u00e9ho m\u00edsta v\u00a0teher\u00e1nsk\u00e9m centru moci.<\/p>\n

Dodatek \u2013 zaj\u00edmav\u00e1 situace vznikla v pr\u016flivu, n\u011bkolik tanker\u016f projelo, ale tucet lod\u00ed se po Arag\u010d\u00edho ozn\u00e1men\u00ed rozjelo sm\u011brem ze Z\u00e1livu, aby se vz\u00e1p\u011bt\u00ed oto\u010dilo a zam\u00ed\u0159ilo zp\u011bt. Do regionu m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed dle zpr\u00e1v t\u0159et\u00ed americk\u00e1 letadlov\u00e1 lo\u010f, Trump na palub\u011b Air Force One odm\u00edtl jak\u00e9koliv m\u00fdtn\u00e9 nebo \u00edr\u00e1nskou spr\u00e1vu pr\u016flivu a nazna\u010dil, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt ve st\u0159edu prodlou\u017eeno. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 agentura Mehr News p\u0159ed n\u011bkolika minutami ozn\u00e1mila, \u017ee pr\u016fliv se vrac\u00ed do p\u0159edchoz\u00edho stavu vojensk\u00e9 kontroly \u00fadajn\u011b kv\u016fli Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm, kter\u00e9 svou blok\u00e1du neodvolaly.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed mocensk\u00e1 bitva se tedy odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00a0samotn\u00e9m Teher\u00e1nu<\/p>\n

Pavel \u0160ik<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 propaganda n\u00e1s od za\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dovala o jednom: \u00cdr\u00e1n je monolitick\u00fd syst\u00e9m s jedn\u00edm…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":104916,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[38,1503,1051],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104915"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=104915"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104915\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/104916"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=104915"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=104915"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=104915"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}