{"id":104837,"date":"2026-04-18T00:28:03","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T22:28:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=104837"},"modified":"2026-04-17T20:12:21","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T18:12:21","slug":"uriel-araujo-vojska-na-kube-dalsi-bazina-pro-washington-krome-iranu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/18\/uriel-araujo-vojska-na-kube-dalsi-bazina-pro-washington-krome-iranu\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: Vojska na\u2026 Kub\u011b? Dal\u0161\u00ed ba\u017eina pro Washington, krom\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1nu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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S pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm konfliktem se zd\u00e1, \u017ee v americk\u00e9 strategii prob\u00edh\u00e1 pokus o zm\u011bnu. Zpr\u00e1vy nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee Kuba se v duchu o\u017eiven\u00e9 neo-monroistick\u00e9 logiky vrac\u00ed do washingtonsk\u00e9ho kalkulu zm\u011bny re\u017eim\u016f. USA se tak m\u00edsto toho mohou ocitnout v pasti dvou bahen z\u00e1rove\u0148.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee Washington mo\u017en\u00e1 p\u0159ipravuje p\u0159\u00edpady vojensk\u00e9 akce proti Havan\u011b, a to i p\u0159esto, \u017ee je st\u00e1le zapleten do n\u00e1kladn\u00e9 a st\u00e1le nepopul\u00e1rn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed konfrontace s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Lee Schlenker, v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk z Quincyho institutu,\u00a0<\/span>poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee Trumpova administrativa z\u0159ejm\u011b potichu p\u0159ipravuje p\u016fdu pro eskalaci na Kub\u011b, a to i p\u0159es absenci jak\u00e9koli bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed provokace, kter\u00e1 by takov\u00fd krok ospravedlnila. Na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt n\u00e1hodn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kub\u00e1nsk\u00fd prezident Miguel D\u00edaz-Canel v reakci na to zaujal vzdorovit\u00fd t\u00f3n a\u00a0<\/span>varoval<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee ostrov je p\u0159ipraven se br\u00e1nit jak\u00e9koli agresi, a to i za obrovsk\u00e9 n\u00e1klady. Havana se \u00fadajn\u011b\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159ipravuje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0na nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>\u00fatok<\/span><\/a>\u00a0uprost\u0159ed rostouc\u00edho tlaku USA a energetick\u00e9 blok\u00e1dy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia a politick\u00e9 kruhy za\u010daly\u00a0<\/span>tuto my\u0161lenku \u0161\u00ed\u0159it a<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ptaj\u00ed se, zda by Kuba skute\u010dn\u011b mohla b\u00fdt \u201e\u00a0<\/span>dal\u0161\u00ed na \u0159ad\u011b<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Takov\u00fd v\u00fdvoj, by\u0165 s\u00e1m o sob\u011b zd\u00e1nliv\u011b p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd, je logick\u00fdm roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00edm (\u00a0<\/span>neo-monroistick\u00e9<\/span><\/a>\u00a0) politick\u00e9 trajektorie, kter\u00e1 se odv\u00edj\u00ed ji\u017e m\u011bs\u00edce. Je\u0161t\u011b v \u00fanoru jsem\u00a0<\/span>tvrdil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee strategie Washingtonu se posunula od tradi\u010dn\u00edch sankc\u00ed k n\u011b\u010demu bli\u017e\u0161\u00edmu tot\u00e1ln\u00edmu ekonomick\u00e9mu udu\u0161en\u00ed. V t\u00e9to souvislosti Trumpovo vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed \u201en\u00e1rodn\u00ed nouze\u201c s c\u00edlem penalizovat zem\u011b dod\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed ropu na Kubu znamenalo kvalitativn\u00ed eskalaci, a t\u00edm ut\u00e1hlo smy\u010dku kolem ji\u017e tak k\u0159ehk\u00e9 ekonomiky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto jde nad r\u00e1mec tradi\u010dn\u00edho embarga, jeho\u017e c\u00edlem je syst\u00e9mov\u00fd kolaps. Washington s\u00e1z\u00ed na to, \u017ee omezov\u00e1n\u00edm dod\u00e1vek paliva, remitenc\u00ed a financ\u00ed povede nepokoje ke zm\u011bn\u011b re\u017eimu. Podobn\u00e1 logika\u00a0dosud\u00a0<\/a><\/span>selhala<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ve Venezuele\u00a0; Kuba nav\u00edc nab\u00edz\u00ed soudr\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed politick\u00fd syst\u00e9m a disciplinovan\u00fd bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed apar\u00e1t, co\u017e sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 rychl\u00e9ho kolapsu \u010din\u00ed nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00fdm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dosavadn\u00ed n\u00e1tlakov\u00e1 kampa\u0148 byla ekonomick\u00e9ho a psychologick\u00e9ho charakteru. Jak jsem v\u0161ak ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve uvedl, historie nazna\u010duje, \u017ee takov\u00e9 kampan\u011b \u010dasto p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011bj\u0161\u00edm form\u00e1m intervence.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 situace je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b nestabiln\u00ed, proto\u017ee se prot\u00edn\u00e1 s jin\u00fdm, mnohem nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm d\u011bji\u0161t\u011bm: Bl\u00edzk\u00fdm v\u00fdchodem.\u00a0<\/span>Katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0americko-izraelsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, zejm\u00e9na v oblasti Hormuzu, odhalila limity americk\u00e9 mocensk\u00e9 projekce, m\u00edrn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, s rostouc\u00edmi n\u00e1klady a nejasn\u00fdmi zisky z pohledu kohokoli. Je v\u0161ak pravda, \u017ee navzdory v\u0161em ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m se \u00cdr\u00e1n pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b\u00a0<\/span>st\u00e1v\u00e1 velmoc\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, nebo se p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm st\u00e1v\u00e1 takovou, kter\u00e1 se teprve st\u00e1v\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za t\u011bchto podm\u00ednek se poku\u0161en\u00ed otev\u0159\u00edt novou frontu bl\u00ed\u017ee domovu st\u00e1v\u00e1 pon\u011bkud srozumiteln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm. Aby Trump neztratil tv\u00e1\u0159 a odvr\u00e1til pozornost od \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 katastrofy, m\u016f\u017ee se sv\u00fdmi charakteristick\u00fdmi zp\u016fsoby vr\u00e1tit ke sv\u00e9mu p\u0159edchoz\u00edmu neo-monroeistick\u00e9mu sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i. Kuba nab\u00edz\u00ed dostate\u010dn\u011b zn\u00e1mou sc\u00e9nu: geograficky bl\u00edzkou, politicky symbolickou a historicky zakotvenou v americk\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 p\u0159edstavivosti \u2013 slovy americk\u00e9ho prezidenta \u201e\u010dest\u00a0<\/span>dobyt\u00ed Kuby<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c. V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by takov\u00fd krok nesl obrovsk\u00e1 rizika.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ji\u017e existuje dostatek zn\u00e1mek tohoto posunu. V Kongresu se\u00a0<\/span>znovu objevuj\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0diskuse o \u00fadajn\u00fdch vazb\u00e1ch Kuby na Rusko a \u0161ir\u0161\u00edch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch obav\u00e1ch a zpr\u00e1vy nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee Pentagon by mohl\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159ezkoum\u00e1vat opera\u010dn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e<\/span><\/a>\u00a0pro ostrov. S\u00e1m Trump ve sv\u00e9m typicky neomalen\u00e9m \u017eargonu\u00a0<\/span>nazna\u010dil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee Kuba by se mohla dostat na program po uklidn\u011bn\u00ed konfliktu s \u00cdr\u00e1nem: \u201eKuba je selh\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed n\u00e1rod a my to ud\u011bl\u00e1me a mo\u017en\u00e1 se na Kub\u011b zastav\u00edme, a\u017e s t\u00edm [\u00cdr\u00e1nem] skon\u010d\u00edme.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Trumpova politick\u00e1 z\u00e1kladna mezit\u00edm vykazuje zn\u00e1mky nap\u011bt\u00ed. Jeho agresivn\u00ed postoj v\u016f\u010di Mexiku a dal\u0161\u00edm latinskoamerick\u00fdm zem\u00edm\u00a0<\/span>ji\u017e odcizuje hisp\u00e1nsk\u00e9 voli\u010de<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Situaci d\u00e1le komplikuje\u00a0<\/span>prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed spor se samotn\u00fdm pape\u017eem<\/span><\/a>\u00a0: Latinskoameri\u010dan\u00e9 jsou drtiv\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina katol\u00edk\u016f a takov\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed hroz\u00ed odcizen\u00edm nejen Latinoameri\u010dan\u016f, ale i katol\u00edk\u016f obecn\u011b. To, co kdysi b\u00fdvala siln\u00e1 koalice (s\u00a0<\/span>bezprecedentn\u00ed hisp\u00e1nskou podporou<\/span><\/a>\u00a0na prezidenta Republik\u00e1nsk\u00e9 strany), se tak\u00a0<\/span>rozpad\u00e1<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Kub\u00e1nsk\u00e1 nehoda by klidn\u011b mohla b\u00fdt posledn\u00ed ranou pro trumpismus.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ameri\u010dt\u00ed jest\u0159\u00e1bi tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee vnit\u0159n\u00ed zranitelnost Kuby ji p\u0159edur\u010duje ke zm\u011bn\u011b. P\u0159esto se podobn\u00e9 argumenty opakuj\u00ed ji\u017e po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed a opakovan\u011b se podce\u0148uje odolnost kub\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu.\u00a0<\/span>V Teher\u00e1nu nedo\u0161lo k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 \u201ezm\u011bn\u011b re\u017eimu\u201c<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 z\u00e1ruka, \u017ee k n\u00ed dojde i v Havan\u011b. Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed agrese naopak posiluje napaden\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy, zejm\u00e9na pokud zem\u011b za\u010dne situaci interpretovat jako existen\u010dn\u00ed hrozbu. Pojem n\u00e1rodn\u00edho osvobozen\u00ed je hluboce zako\u0159en\u011bn v kub\u00e1nsk\u00e9 (socialistick\u00e9) politick\u00e9 p\u0159edstavivosti, stejn\u011b jako mu\u010dednictv\u00ed a odpor v \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 (\u0161\u00editsk\u00e9) mentalit\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc je v s\u00e1zce na americk\u00e9m kontinentu dostate\u010dn\u011b mnoho: Kuba nen\u00ed izolovan\u00e1. \u010c\u00edna roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ila svou ekonomickou p\u0159\u00edtomnost v Karibiku a jak\u00fdkoli \u00fatok na infrastrukturu propojenou s \u010c\u00ednou by riskoval eskalaci. Region\u00e1ln\u00ed akt\u00e9\u0159i, jako je Mexiko a Braz\u00edlie, by tak\u00e9 \u010delili tlaku na diplomatickou nebo ekonomickou reakci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Blok\u00e1da nebo vojensk\u00e1 akce na Kub\u011b by m\u011bla v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed n\u00e1sledky: nedostatek pohonn\u00fdch hmot by mohl ochromit slu\u017eby a hn\u00e1t migraci k hranic\u00edm USA. To je sv\u00e9ho druhu paradox, kter\u00fd je j\u00e1drem t\u00e9to strategie: chaos, kter\u00fd se sna\u017e\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edt, se m\u016f\u017ee nakonec odrazit od sv\u00e9ho vlastn\u00edho tv\u016frce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Washington je nav\u00edc na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b dostate\u010dn\u011b p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00fd, m\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>vy\u010derpan\u00fd arzen\u00e1l<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(a\u00a0<\/span>kv\u016fli \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce dokonce zpo\u017e\u010fuje dod\u00e1vky zbran\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edm spojenc\u016fm<\/span><\/a>\u00a0); \u010delit i latinskoamerick\u00e9mu divadlu by v tomto kontextu atlantickou supervelmoc d\u00e1le zat\u00ed\u017eilo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se krize m\u00e1 v\u0161ak i nedostate\u010dn\u011b informovan\u00fd rozm\u011br, jeliko\u017e se v USA stup\u0148uj\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed i vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed tlaky, kter\u00e9 mohou formovat zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed \u201eproizraelsk\u00fdm\u201c zp\u016fsobem: znovu se objevila af\u00e9ra s Epsteinem, kter\u00e1 d\u00e1le nazna\u010duje, jak jsem ji\u017e\u00a0<\/span>psal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee n\u011bkter\u00e9 prvky v administrativ\u011b, konkr\u00e9tn\u011b samotn\u00fd prezident a prvn\u00ed d\u00e1ma, by mohly b\u00fdt p\u0159edm\u011btem politick\u00e9ho vyd\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee m\u00edsto \u00fastupu z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu a obratu na z\u00e1padn\u00ed polokouli se Washington m\u016f\u017ee ocitnout v pasti dvou ba\u017ein.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm konfliktem se zd\u00e1, \u017ee v americk\u00e9 strategii prob\u00edh\u00e1 pokus o zm\u011bnu. Zpr\u00e1vy…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":104838,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,135,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104837"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=104837"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104837\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/104838"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=104837"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=104837"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=104837"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}