{"id":104819,"date":"2026-04-18T00:24:48","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T22:24:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=104819"},"modified":"2026-04-17T12:33:55","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T10:33:55","slug":"iran-a-cina-masivne-prolomily-americkou-namorni-blokadu-trump-v-krizi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/18\/iran-a-cina-masivne-prolomily-americkou-namorni-blokadu-trump-v-krizi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00cdr\u00e1n a \u010c\u00edna masivn\u011b prolomily americkou n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1du \u2013 Trump v krizi"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V tomto ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m rozhovoru hovo\u0159\u00ed zku\u0161en\u00fd analytik a b\u00fdval\u00fd \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edk CIA a ministerstva zahrani\u010d\u00ed Larry Johnson s moder\u00e1torem Dannym Hiongem \u017eij\u00edc\u00edm v \u010c\u00edn\u011b o prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed americk\u00e9 blok\u00e1d\u011b v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. Johnson hodnot\u00ed situaci jako strategickou katastrofu pro Trumpovu administrativu, co\u017e jasn\u011b ukazuje limity americk\u00e9 moci.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"\u00cdr\u00e1n a \u010c\u00edna pr\u00e1v\u011b tvrd\u011b zas\u00e1hly americkou n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1du, Trump v panice | Larry Johnson\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/50jhZ7JH6yU?feature=oembed\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 situace: \u00cdr\u00e1n si dr\u017e\u00ed sv\u00e9 pozice, \u010c\u00edna blok\u00e1du ignoruje<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Trumpova administrativa uvalila na \u00cdr\u00e1n n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1du, aby zastavila dod\u00e1vky ropy p\u0159es Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv \u2013 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm za \u00fa\u010delem st\u0159etu s \u010c\u00ednou. Po pouh\u00fdch \u010dty\u0159ech dnech se v\u0161ak zd\u00e1, \u017ee opak je pravdou: \u00cdr\u00e1n \u00fadajn\u011b p\u0159epravil p\u0159es Om\u00e1nsk\u00fd z\u00e1liv ji\u017e p\u0159es 9 milion\u016f barel\u016f ropy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem za jedin\u00fd den pro\u0161lo v\u00edce ne\u017e 20 obchodn\u00edch lod\u00ed, zat\u00edmco pod \u00edr\u00e1nskou kontrolou je p\u0159es 800 lod\u00ed v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. \u00cdr\u00e1n se odm\u00edt\u00e1 vzd\u00e1t a nad\u00e1le kontroluje tuto \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eitou vodn\u00ed cestu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna Trumpovy hrozby jasn\u011b odm\u00edtla a prohl\u00e1sila, \u017ee bude dodr\u017eovat st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed dohody o dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch. \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00edsto slabosti demonstruje suverenitu a ekonomickou nez\u00e1vislost.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Larry Johnson p\u0159irovn\u00e1v\u00e1 situaci k odchodu dosp\u011bl\u00e9ho syna z domova: \u00cdr\u00e1n u\u017e nen\u00ed z\u00e1visl\u00fd a \u017eije si vlastn\u00edm \u017eivotem.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Nedostatek strategie a iluze blok\u00e1dy<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Johnson ost\u0159e kritizuje absenci jak\u00e9koli ucelen\u00e9 strategie ve Washingtonu. USA neust\u00e1le m\u011bn\u00ed taktiku \u2013 od hrozeb p\u0159es navy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed po\u010dtu voj\u00e1k\u016f a\u017e po nab\u00eddky k vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Blok\u00e1da je fas\u00e1da, \u201evtip\u201c pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fd k oklam\u00e1n\u00ed americk\u00e9 ve\u0159ejnosti. Ve skute\u010dnosti je prakticky nemo\u017en\u00e9 efektivn\u011b monitorovat rozs\u00e1hlou oblast Arabsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e a Indick\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Lod\u011b se mus\u00ed dr\u017eet daleko od pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed, aby se vyhnuly z\u00e1sahu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch pob\u0159e\u017en\u00edch obrann\u00fdch raket, balistick\u00fdch raket kr\u00e1tk\u00e9ho doletu, podvodn\u00edch dron\u016f, hladinov\u00fdch dron\u016f a leteck\u00fdch dron\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00fdrazn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edklad: letadlov\u00e1 lo\u010f USS George H.W. Bush se ze strachu z \u00fatoku plavila kolem Afriky, m\u00edsto aby vyu\u017eila Suezsk\u00fd pr\u016fplav a Rud\u00e9 mo\u0159e. To vypov\u00edd\u00e1 v\u0161e o skute\u010dn\u00e9 mocensk\u00e9 pozici americk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Johnson poukazuje na historick\u00e9 srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s 66letou blok\u00e1dou Kuby: i tam, kde m\u011bly USA mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed geografickou kontrolu, tato strategie selhala. \u00cdr\u00e1n tak\u00e9 t\u011b\u017e\u00ed ze sousedn\u00edch zem\u00ed, Kaspick\u00e9ho mo\u0159e a sm\u011bnn\u00fdch dohod s Ruskem.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky: Ropn\u00fd \u0161ok teprve p\u0159ijde<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Sv\u011bt dosud nepoc\u00edtil pln\u00fd dopad 20procentn\u00edho poklesu dod\u00e1vek ropy, proto\u017ee tankery nalo\u017een\u00e9 p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou teprve nyn\u00ed dor\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed do sv\u00fdch destinac\u00ed (tankery denn\u011b uraz\u00ed jen asi 200 mil).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ceny ji\u017e prudce rostou \u2013 barel ropy \u00fadajn\u011b v Singapuru dos\u00e1hl 210 dolar\u016f. Johnson varuje p\u0159ed kask\u00e1dov\u00fdmi dopady: vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi cenami paliv, nedostatkem hnojiv, naru\u0161en\u00edm dod\u00e1vek zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu (25 % sv\u011btov\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek poch\u00e1z\u00ed z tohoto regionu) a hnojiv (35 % sv\u011btov\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V USA ji\u017e zem\u011bd\u011blci hl\u00e1s\u00ed trojn\u00e1sobn\u00e9 ceny hnojiv a masivn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na seno, co\u017e by mohlo v\u00e9st ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed po\u010dtu hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch zv\u00ed\u0159at \u2013 a v dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu k vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm cen\u00e1m masa.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fsledky by mohly vyvolat hospod\u00e1\u0159skou krizi srovnatelnou s Velkou hospod\u00e1\u0159skou kriz\u00ed ve 30. letech 20. stolet\u00ed. \u010c\u00edna je naproti tomu z 85 % energeticky sob\u011bsta\u010dn\u00e1; \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 ropa tvo\u0159\u00ed jen malou \u010d\u00e1st jej\u00edho dovozu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Vojensk\u00e1 realita a rizika eskalace<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Navzdory r\u00e9torice o \u201ezni\u010den\u00fdch\u201c \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch raketov\u00fdch odpalovac\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edch z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 schopnost kontrolovat Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv nedot\u010dena.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">USA pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed po\u010dtu voj\u00e1k\u016f (v\u010detn\u011b 10 000 dal\u0161\u00edch voj\u00e1k\u016f) a zva\u017eovaly \u00fatoky na jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny, ale tyto pl\u00e1ny z\u0159ejm\u011b odlo\u017eily. M\u00edsto toho se diskutuje o speci\u00e1ln\u00edch operac\u00edch k zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed vysoce obohacen\u00e9ho uranu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Johnson pova\u017euje sou\u010dasn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed (kter\u00e9 by mohlo vypr\u0161et v pond\u011bl\u00ed) za k\u0159ehk\u00e9. Izrael blokuje pokrok v jedn\u00e1n\u00edch s Hizball\u00e1hem pokusem o dobyt\u00ed m\u011bsta v ji\u017en\u00edm Libanonu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Skute\u010dn\u00fd pr\u016flom by byl mo\u017en\u00fd pouze tehdy, kdyby Izrael souhlasil s p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm s Hizball\u00e1hem \u2013 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b kv\u016fli t\u011b\u017ek\u00fdm ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m do dvou t\u00fddn\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Trump ned\u00e1vno ozn\u00e1mil desetidenn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed mezi Libanonem a Izraelem, co\u017e Johnson skepticky vn\u00edm\u00e1 jako pokus mobilizovat libanonskou vl\u00e1du proti Hizball\u00e1hu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Historick\u00fd kontext: Ko\u0159eny konfliktu v Libanonu<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Johnson pod\u00e1v\u00e1 podrobn\u00fd historick\u00fd p\u0159ehled libanonsk\u00e9 ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky od roku 1975, roli USA, Izraele a r\u016fzn\u00fdch n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fdch skupin (k\u0159es\u0165an\u016f, sunnit\u016f, \u0161\u00edit\u016f, dr\u00faz\u016f).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Hizball\u00e1h vznikl v roce 1982 v reakci na \u00fatoky na \u0161\u00edity, podporovan\u00fd \u00edr\u00e1nskou pomoc\u00ed, zat\u00edmco USA podporovaly Sadd\u00e1ma Husajna v \u00edr\u00e1nsko-ir\u00e1ck\u00e9 v\u00e1lce zbran\u011bmi, pen\u011bzi a zpravodajsk\u00fdmi informacemi \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b chemick\u00fdch zbran\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pozd\u011bji p\u0159i\u0161la af\u00e9ra \u00cdr\u00e1n-Contras, v n\u00ed\u017e USA sou\u010dasn\u011b prodaly zbran\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Tyto rozpory zanechaly hlubok\u00e9 r\u00e1ny.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Dlouhodob\u00e9 ponau\u010den\u00ed: Konec unipol\u00e1rn\u00edho sv\u011bta<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Johnson zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee zem\u011b jako \u00cdr\u00e1n, \u010c\u00edna a Rusko maj\u00ed alternativy a jsou p\u0159ipraveny na tlak. USA masivn\u011b p\u0159ece\u0148uj\u00ed sv\u016fj vliv.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ne\u00fasp\u011bch blok\u00e1dy demonstruje novou multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed realitu. Pozitivn\u011b poukazuje na zotaven\u00ed Ruska po rozpadu Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu za Putina jako na p\u0159\u00edklad toho, \u017ee i v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 krize mohou v\u00e9st k obnov\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, konverzace vykresluje obraz zahlcen\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho imp\u00e9ria, kter\u00e9 pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 zastaral\u00e9 metody (sankce, blok\u00e1dy, hrozby) proti suver\u00e9nn\u00edm st\u00e1t\u016fm, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e nelze zastra\u0161it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ekonomick\u00e9 ne\u00fasp\u011bchy zasahuj\u00ed obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b tvrd\u011b samotn\u00fd Z\u00e1pad, zat\u00edmco \u00cdr\u00e1n posiluje svou pozici a \u010c\u00edna z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 klidn\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed t\u00fddny a m\u011bs\u00edce uk\u00e1\u017eou, zda se Washington z t\u00e9to lekce pou\u010d\u00ed, nebo zda ud\u011bl\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1kladn\u00e9 chyby.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V tomto ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m rozhovoru hovo\u0159\u00ed zku\u0161en\u00fd analytik a b\u00fdval\u00fd \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edk CIA a ministerstva zahrani\u010d\u00ed Larry&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":104820,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,569,30,6382,38],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104819"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=104819"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104819\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/104820"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=104819"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=104819"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=104819"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}