{"id":104601,"date":"2026-04-15T00:25:59","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T22:25:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=104601"},"modified":"2026-04-14T12:17:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T10:17:32","slug":"jiri-paroubek-kam-az-dozene-trumpa-frustrace-z-hroziciho-debaklu-v-iranu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/15\/jiri-paroubek-kam-az-dozene-trumpa-frustrace-z-hroziciho-debaklu-v-iranu\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: Kam a\u017e do\u017eene Trumpa frustrace z hroz\u00edc\u00edho debaklu v \u00cdr\u00e1nu?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Americk\u00fd prezident p\u0159es sil\u00e1ck\u00e9 \u0159e\u010di, kter\u00e9 vede a p\u0159es sil\u00e1ck\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly, je\u017e vys\u00edl\u00e1 na v\u0161echny strany (do Ir\u00e1nu, do \u010c\u00edny i jinam), je v prek\u00e9rn\u00ed situaci. Americk\u00e1 ve\u0159ejnost si jen t\u011b\u017eko dovede – podle pr\u016fzkum\u016f – p\u0159edstavit, \u017ee by americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da spolu s Izraelci pokra\u010dovala po krat\u0161\u00ed p\u0159est\u00e1vce v \u00fatoc\u00edch na \u00cdr\u00e1n. Tedy v \u00fatoc\u00edch v podstat\u011b na civiln\u00ed infrastrukturu a tedy v \u00fatoc\u00edch na civiln\u00ed obyvatelstvo. Z tohoto hlediska p\u0159edstavuje rozhodnut\u00ed prezidenta Trumpa o blok\u00e1d\u011b Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu dal\u0161\u00ed dobrodru\u017en\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 potenci\u00e1l rozpoutat v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd konflikt nedoz\u00edrn\u00fdch rozm\u011br\u016f.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Mluv\u010d\u00ed vl\u00e1dy \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 lidov\u00e9 republiky, jak jsme se dozv\u011bd\u011bl ze soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00ed a nikoliv z \u010desk\u00fdch mainstreamov\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00ed, sd\u011blil Ameri\u010dan\u016fm a sv\u011btu, \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 tankery se prost\u011b nezastav\u00ed p\u0159ed blok\u00e1dou a pojedou si pro \u00edr\u00e1nskou ropu. Co bude potom, a\u017e americk\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 lod\u011b zamez\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9mu tankeru napln\u011bn\u00e9mu ropou, proplout Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem? Nedovedu si to p\u0159edstavit. Stejn\u011b tak si t\u011b\u017eko dovedu p\u0159edstavit, co se stane a\u017e se americk\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 lodi pokus\u00ed proplout \u00fa\u017einou. Za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed na n\u011b opravdu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 \u010dluny, se kter\u00fdmi se americk\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 lodi zat\u00edm p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 konfrontaci vyh\u00fdbaly? Nejsp\u00ed\u0161e ano a konflikt se znovu rozho\u0159\u00ed jasn\u00fdm plamenem. Americk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia budou sice tvrdit, \u017ee konflikt zah\u00e1jil Ir\u00e1n. Ale kdo tomu je\u0161t\u011b bude v\u011b\u0159it? Bude tomu v\u011b\u0159it sv\u011btov\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed a nebo alespo\u0148 to americk\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed? V muslimsk\u00fdch st\u00e1tech Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty prohr\u00e1vaj\u00ed ve ve\u0159ejnosti na pln\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1\u0159e. Izraelsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 akce v Ji\u017en\u00edm Libanonu sm\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed k obsazen\u00ed co nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti zem\u011b izraelskou arm\u00e1dou. Na \u00fat\u011bku v Libanonu jsou nyn\u00ed dva miliony lid\u00ed. Ti lid\u00e9 ut\u00edkaj\u00ed ze sv\u00fdch domov\u016f a pot\u00e9\u00a0 izraelsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da ni\u010d\u00ed jejich domy podobn\u011b, jako to \u010dinila v Gaze. To povzbuzuje odpor v\u016f\u010di Izraeli i v \u0159ad\u011b st\u00e1t\u016f Z\u00e1padu. M\u00e1m te\u010f na mysli zj. \u0160pan\u011blsko a It\u00e1lii i jin\u00e9 zem\u011b. A ten odpor nen\u00ed zdaleka soust\u0159ed\u011bn jen na muslimsk\u00e9 men\u0161iny v t\u011bchto zem\u00edch. Prost\u011b, na \u00fazem\u00ed Libanonu, ale tak\u00e9 na \u00fazem\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu doch\u00e1z\u00ed k v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm zlo\u010din\u016fm. A americk\u00fd prezident bezosty\u0161n\u011b hovo\u0159\u00ed o mo\u017enosti dal\u0161\u00edch v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch zlo\u010din\u016f, kter\u00fdmi nesporn\u011b \u00fatoky na civiln\u00ed infrastrukturu, jako jsou elektr\u00e1rny,\u00a0 jsou. Podle d\u016fv\u011brn\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v, kter\u00e9 se zat\u00edm \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed, viceprezident USA J.D. Vance m\u011bl velkou snahu v Isl\u00e1mab\u00e1du uzav\u0159\u00edt s \u00cdr\u00e1nem realistickou dohodu. A byl t\u00e9 dohod\u011b pr\u00fd bl\u00edzko. Dohodu ale znemo\u017enili dal\u0161\u00ed vyjedn\u00e1va\u010di, kte\u0159\u00ed bohu\u017eel nepracuj\u00ed v americk\u00e9m z\u00e1jmu. M\u00e1m na mysli p\u00e1ny Witkoffa a Kushnera. K t\u011bmto lidem m\u00e1 prezident Trump ov\u0161em velkou d\u016fv\u011bru.<\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee konflikt mezi USA a Izraelem, tedy agresory, a \u00cdr\u00e1nem bude brzo pokra\u010dovat. Pokud\u00a0\u00a0arm\u00e1dy USA a Izraele za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed na \u00edr\u00e1nskou civiln\u00ed infrastrukturu \u010di dokonce za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, kter\u00e9 zaji\u0161\u0165uje odsolov\u00e1n\u00edm mo\u0159sk\u00e9 vody pitnou vodu pro \u00edr\u00e1nskou populaci, za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 rakety na stejn\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed v arabsk\u00fdch st\u00e1tech Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. Tedy v t\u011bch, kter\u00e9 pokra\u010duj\u00ed v podpo\u0159e vojensk\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. A oblast Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu bude zni\u010dena. Co\u017e ve sv\u00fdch d\u016fsledc\u00edch bude znamenat humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed katastrofu nedoz\u00edrn\u00fdch rozm\u011br\u016f. To tedy na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b.\u00a0\u00a0Na stran\u011b druh\u00e9 se to t\u00fdk\u00e1 cel\u00e9ho sv\u011bta, proto\u017ee ceny ropy vyb\u011bhnou na dnes naprosto nep\u0159edstavitelnou \u00farove\u0148. Bude to 150 dolar\u016f za barel anebo v\u00edce? \u010ci o n\u011bco m\u00e9n\u011b? V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b to bude m\u00edt dopad na \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 lid\u00ed v\u00a0\u00a0Evrop\u011b a tedy i u n\u00e1s. A v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm probl\u00e9mem bude celkov\u00e1, tedy glob\u00e1ln\u00ed nedostupnost ropy a zemn\u00edho plynu.<\/p>\n

Ale zp\u011bt k prezidentu Trumpovi. Pokud se zaplete nevratn\u011b do konfliktu s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, \u010dek\u00e1 jej politick\u00e1 katastrofa monument\u00e1ln\u00edch rozm\u011br\u016f, srovnateln\u00e1 nebo dokonce je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e byla ta, kterou za\u017eily Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty ve Vietnamu. Ostatn\u011b vojensky vy\u0159\u00eddit zemi s v\u00edce ne\u017e 90 miliony obyvatel, kte\u0159\u00ed jak se zd\u00e1, nemaj\u00ed \u00fapln\u011b pitomou politickou elitu,\u00a0\u00a0nebude v\u016fbec jednoduch\u00e9. Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 projevili p\u0159i odhadu sv\u00fdch mo\u017enost\u00ed \u0159e\u0161it “ \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd probl\u00e9m“ bezmeznou aroganci a hloupost. Tedy, jejich politick\u00e9 veden\u00ed. Pokud bude sou\u010dasn\u00e1 situace eskalovat, bude to znamenat pro Trumpa politick\u00fd konec. Pro republik\u00e1ny por\u00e1\u017eku ve volb\u00e1ch do Kongresu po\u010d\u00e1tkem listopadu. A pro Trumpa impeachment nebo alespo\u0148 pokus o n\u011bj, ji\u017e za rok touto dobou. Tedy pot\u00e9, co za\u010dne Kongres USA fungovat po volb\u00e1ch v nov\u00e9m slo\u017een\u00ed. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Trump se po \u00fasp\u011b\u0161\u00edch, spojen\u00fdch s poru\u0161en\u00edm mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho pr\u00e1va, ve Venezuele (a do jist\u00e9 m\u00edry tak\u00e9 na Kub\u011b) pova\u017eoval za neporaziteln\u00e9ho.<\/p>\n

A te\u010f \u010del\u00ed Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty potenci\u00e1ln\u011b nejv\u00e1\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed politick\u00e9 krizi v novodob\u00fdch d\u011bjin\u00e1ch sv\u00e9 zem\u011b. A\u0165 ud\u011blaj\u00ed,\u00a0\u00a0co ud\u011blaj\u00ed, bude v\u0161echno \u0161patn\u011b. A v\u0161echno pos\u00edl\u00ed jejich glob\u00e1ln\u00ed rivaly. Tedy v prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b \u010c\u00ednu, ale tak\u00e9 Rusko. Zkr\u00e1tka, necht\u011bl bych b\u00fdt te\u010f v k\u016f\u017ei americk\u00e9ho prezidenta.<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Americk\u00fd prezident p\u0159es sil\u00e1ck\u00e9 \u0159e\u010di, kter\u00e9 vede a p\u0159es sil\u00e1ck\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly, je\u017e vys\u00edl\u00e1 na v\u0161echny…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":101815,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[569,38,1503,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104601"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=104601"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104601\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101815"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=104601"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=104601"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=104601"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}