{"id":104580,"date":"2026-04-15T00:20:31","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T22:20:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=104580"},"modified":"2026-04-14T11:23:48","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T09:23:48","slug":"hrozna-namorni-blokada-v-hormuzskem-prulivu-profesor-john-mearsheimer-varuje-pred-strategickou-katastrofou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/15\/hrozna-namorni-blokada-v-hormuzskem-prulivu-profesor-john-mearsheimer-varuje-pred-strategickou-katastrofou\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201eHrozn\u00e1 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1da\u201c v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu \u2013 profesor John Mearsheimer varuje p\u0159ed strategickou katastrofou"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Sv\u011bt se zatajen\u00fdm dechem sleduje d\u011bn\u00ed. Nap\u011bt\u00ed v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu se d\u00e1le stup\u0148uje a dlouh\u00fd a velmi v\u00fdbu\u0161n\u00fd rozhovor s renomovan\u00fdm americk\u00fdm politologem profesorem Johnem Mearsheimerem se st\u00e1v\u00e1 vir\u00e1ln\u00edm.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Vlivn\u00fd realista z Chicagsk\u00e9 univerzity vykresluje pochmurn\u00fd obraz sou\u010dasn\u00e9 americk\u00e9 politiky za prezidenta Trumpa: n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1da Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed v Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du a hlubok\u00e1 strategick\u00e1 krize pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Mearsheimer hovo\u0159\u00ed o slep\u00e9 uli\u010dce, kterou si Amerika sama zp\u016fsobila, a v n\u00ed\u017e riskuje nejen prohru ve v\u00e1lce proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, ale tak\u00e9 v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 po\u0161kozen\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 ekonomiky a sv\u00e9ho vlastn\u00edho glob\u00e1ln\u00edho postaven\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ve sv\u00e9m podrobn\u00e9m rozhovoru s Danielem Davisem Mearsheimer nemilosrdn\u011b analyzuje nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Prezident Trump ozn\u00e1mil \u00faplnou blok\u00e1du Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu a pohrozil zni\u010den\u00edm ka\u017ed\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 lodi, kter\u00e1 se j\u00ed vzep\u0159e. Opat\u0159en\u00ed vstoupilo v platnost dnes r\u00e1no a jeho c\u00edlem je ekonomicky ochromit \u00cdr\u00e1n \u2013 pot\u00e9, co \u0161est t\u00fddn\u016f boj\u016f a n\u00e1sledn\u00fdch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed v Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du nevedlo k dohod\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Profesor John Mearsheimer: HROZIV\u00c1 N\u00c1MO\u0158N\u00cd BLOK\u00c1DA v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/fEAi0O4x7Hc?feature=oembed\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed v Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Mearsheimer popisuje jedn\u00e1n\u00ed veden\u00e1 viceprezidentem J. D. Vancem jako katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed selh\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">A\u010dkoli Trump zpo\u010d\u00e1tku signalizoval ochotu vyjedn\u00e1vat na z\u00e1klad\u011b \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho desetibodov\u00e9ho pl\u00e1nu, Vance nakonec p\u0159edlo\u017eil maximalistick\u00e9 po\u017eadavky USA (patn\u00e1ctibodov\u00fd pl\u00e1n). \u00cdr\u00e1nci je odm\u00edtli.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pro Mearsheimera to nebyla n\u00e1hoda: USA byly ve slab\u00e9 pozici, ve skute\u010dnosti hledaly \u201eodklon\u201c, ale pod siln\u00fdm izraelsk\u00fdm vlivem \u2013 mimo jin\u00e9 i prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm Netanjahuov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdch kontakt\u016f s Vancem \u2013 zast\u00e1valy tvrdou linii.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Profesor je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kritick\u00fd v\u016f\u010di roli Izraele a proizraelsk\u00e9 lobby.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Netanjahu se aktivn\u011b sna\u017eil sabotovat jedn\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee nechal Izrael pokra\u010dovat v \u00fatoc\u00edch na pozice Hizball\u00e1hu v Libanonu navzdory dohodnut\u00e9mu p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Mearsheimer hovo\u0159\u00ed o jasn\u00e9m pokusu zabr\u00e1nit jak\u00e9koli deeskalaci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1rove\u0148 v pozad\u00ed p\u016fsobily postavy jako Jared Kushner a dal\u0161\u00ed \u201ev\u00e1\u0161niv\u00ed sionist\u00e9\u201c jako dozor\u010d\u00ed psi, kte\u0159\u00ed m\u011bli Vancea udr\u017eet na uzd\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Blok\u00e1da \u2013 \u201ehrozn\u00e1 mo\u017enost\u201c<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Mearsheimer popisuje nyn\u00ed zavedenou blok\u00e1du Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu jako ze strategick\u00e9ho hlediska velmi problematickou.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n to sice nezlom\u00ed, ale p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm to zp\u016fsob\u00ed obrovsk\u00e9 \u0161kody glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomice.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 ropa je pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trh nepostradateln\u00e1 \u2013 dokonce i samotn\u00e9 USA zm\u00edrnily sankce, aby na trh dostaly v\u00edce ropy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Amerika si touto blok\u00e1dou st\u0159el\u00ed do nohy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ceny ropy a benzinu ji\u017e znateln\u011b rostou.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Mearsheimer varuje: Pokud by blok\u00e1da trvala d\u00e9le, hroz\u00ed t\u011b\u017ek\u00e1 recese nebo dokonce glob\u00e1ln\u00ed deprese srovnateln\u00e1 s rokem 1929.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b posti\u017eeny jsou v\u00fdchodoasijsk\u00e9 zem\u011b, jako je Japonsko (93 % dovozu ropy p\u0159es Hormuz) a Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea (45 %).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ekonomick\u00e9 ot\u0159esy by se roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ily po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch cen potravin v d\u016fsledku naru\u0161en\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek hnojiv.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Strategick\u00e1 por\u00e1\u017eka USA<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">J\u00e1dro Mearsheimerovy anal\u00fdzy je zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed: Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty ji\u017e strategicky prohr\u00e1ly v\u00e1lku proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd ze \u010dty\u0159 p\u016fvodn\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f nebyl dosa\u017een:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 zm\u011bna re\u017eimu v \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">\u017d\u00e1dn\u00e9 zni\u010den\u00ed balistick\u00fdch raket.<\/span><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">\u017d\u00e1dn\u00e9 ukon\u010den\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho programu.<\/span><br \/>\n<span dir=\"auto\">\u017d\u00e1dn\u00e9 ukon\u010den\u00ed podpory Hizball\u00e1hu, Ham\u00e1su a H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">M\u00edsto toho nyn\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n fakticky kontroluje Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv \u2013 co\u017e je pozice, kterou p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou nem\u011bl.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nci jsou dnes v lep\u0161\u00ed strategick\u00e9 pozici ne\u017e p\u0159ed 27. \u00fanorem 2026.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Mearsheimer zd\u016fraz\u0148uje: Nikdo mu nem\u016f\u017ee p\u0159edlo\u017eit v\u011brohodn\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, jak by USA mohly situaci je\u0161t\u011b zvr\u00e1tit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ani jadern\u00e1 varianta \u2013 kterou z\u0159ejm\u011b n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed Izraelci zva\u017euj\u00ed \u2013 by podle jeho odhadu nevedla k po\u017eadovan\u00e9mu v\u00fdsledku, jeliko\u017e velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 infrastruktury se nach\u00e1z\u00ed v podzem\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Vliv Izraele a dom\u00e1c\u00ed politick\u00e1 dynamika<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Mearsheimer vid\u00ed Netanjahua v zoufal\u00e9 situaci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pot\u00e9, co \u00fatok na \u00cdr\u00e1n selhal vojensky i politicky, \u00cdr\u00e1n \u201eml\u00e1t\u00ed rukama\u201c a hled\u00e1 radik\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pro Netanjahua je \u00cdr\u00e1n jeho \u201eMoby Dickem\u201c \u2013 posedlost\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Profesor z\u00e1rove\u0148 ost\u0159e kritizuje skute\u010dnost, \u017ee vysoce postaven\u00ed ameri\u010dt\u00ed politici jako Lindsey Graham a gener\u00e1l Jack Keane nad\u00e1le prosazuj\u00ed eskalaci, ani\u017e by p\u0159edlo\u017eili realistickou strategii.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fsledky: Rozpad alianc\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Dopad na americk\u00e9 aliance je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Trump urazil Evropu, Japonsko, Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreu a st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu t\u00edm, \u017ee je ve\u0159ejn\u011b kritizoval za nedostatek podpory.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Mearsheimer varuje: USA ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost jako spolehliv\u00fd partner.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Zem\u011b v Asii a Evrop\u011b ji\u017e za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed zva\u017eovat alternativy \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b vlastn\u00edho jadern\u00e9ho odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed (Japonsko, Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea) nebo nez\u00e1visl\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektury.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Naproti tomu se \u010c\u00edna a Rusko jevily jako zodpov\u011bdn\u00ed akt\u00e9\u0159i, zat\u00edmco USA se zd\u00e1ly b\u00fdt st\u00e1le izolovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00fdhled: Titanic na sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00e9 dr\u00e1ze<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Mearsheimer p\u0159irovn\u00e1v\u00e1 sou\u010dasnou situaci k Titanicu m\u00ed\u0159\u00edc\u00edmu k ledovci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Trump je pod obrovsk\u00fdm tlakem: Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b Izrael a lobby, kter\u00e1 odm\u00edt\u00e1 jak\u00e9koli kompromisn\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b hroz\u00edc\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomick\u00e1 katastrofa.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Kl\u00ed\u010dovou ot\u00e1zkou pro nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed t\u00fddny je: Bude m\u00edt Trump odvahu odtrhnout se od Izraele a uzav\u0159\u00edt dohodu, nebo bude z vnitropolitick\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f d\u00e1le eskalovat a t\u00edm zat\u00e1hne glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku do propasti?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Profesor kon\u010d\u00ed rozhovor st\u0159\u00edzliv\u00fdm prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm: Je to \u201ezcela depresivn\u00ed\u201c anal\u00fdza \u2013 ale nezbytn\u00e1 k tomu, aby se dala pravd\u011b zazn\u00edt \u0159e\u010d.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V tomto rozhovoru profesor John Mearsheimer p\u0159edkl\u00e1d\u00e1 jednu z nejost\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed a nejsouvisl\u011bj\u0161\u00edch kritik sou\u010dasn\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky USA.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Zda budou jeho varov\u00e1n\u00ed respektov\u00e1na, nebo bude eskalace pokra\u010dovat, se rozhodne v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch dnech a t\u00fddnech.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Sv\u011bt se d\u00edv\u00e1 \u2013 a hodiny tikaj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sv\u011bt se zatajen\u00fdm dechem sleduje d\u011bn\u00ed. Nap\u011bt\u00ed v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu se d\u00e1le stup\u0148uje a dlouh\u00fd&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":104581,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,10882,6382],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104580"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=104580"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104580\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/104581"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=104580"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=104580"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=104580"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}