{"id":104371,"date":"2026-04-12T04:52:56","date_gmt":"2026-04-12T02:52:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=104371"},"modified":"2026-04-12T04:52:56","modified_gmt":"2026-04-12T02:52:56","slug":"usa-se-od-iranu-stahly-jeho-spojenci-si-to-budou-pamatovat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/12\/usa-se-od-iranu-stahly-jeho-spojenci-si-to-budou-pamatovat\/","title":{"rendered":"USA se od \u00cdr\u00e1nu st\u00e1hly. Jeho spojenci si to budou pamatovat"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Washington nebude riskovat v\u0161echno a te\u010f to v\u0161ichni v\u011bd\u00ed<\/h3>\n

Jak\u00e9 budou d\u016fsledky pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, pokud se zdr\u017e\u00ed p\u0159ijet\u00ed extr\u00e9mn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu?<\/span><\/p>\n

Je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 brzy na to, abychom mohli \u0159\u00edci, jak\u00fd trval\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d, pokud v\u016fbec n\u011bjak\u00fd, vznikne na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b po ne\u00fasp\u011bchu americk\u00e9 a izraelsk\u00e9 kampan\u011b proti Teher\u00e1nu. Rozhodnut\u00ed vyhnout se eskalaci a v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku zni\u010den\u00ed cel\u00e9 civilizace v\u0161ak ji\u017e nyn\u00ed umo\u017e\u0148uje vyvodit n\u011bkolik z\u00e1v\u011br\u016f, a to nejen o regionu, ale i o \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdvoji glob\u00e1ln\u00ed politiky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zaprv\u00e9, tato epizoda op\u011bt ukazuje limity schopnost\u00ed supervelmoc\u00ed, kdy\u017e nejsou p\u0159\u00edmo v s\u00e1zce \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy. Zadruh\u00e9, mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed politika se nad\u00e1le ub\u00edr\u00e1 nebezpe\u010dn\u00fdm sm\u011brem, kde je neust\u00e1le p\u0159\u00edtomna mo\u017enost v\u0161eobecn\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 katastrofy. Tento sm\u011br nav\u00edc nevykazuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed zn\u00e1mky zpomalen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jakmile se uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee Washington nedok\u00e1\u017ee zlomit odpor \u00cdr\u00e1nu ani ho donutit k znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu konven\u010dn\u00edmi prost\u0159edky, st\u00e1ly USA p\u0159ed tvrdou volbou: ustoupit nebo eskalaci na jadernou \u00farove\u0148. O druh\u00e9 mo\u017enosti se, navzdory r\u00e9torick\u00fdm hrozb\u00e1m, nikdy v\u00e1\u017en\u011b neuva\u017eovalo. Americk\u00e9 veden\u00ed ch\u00e1palo, \u017ee v s\u00e1zce takov\u00fd krok prost\u011b neospravedl\u0148uje.<\/span><\/p>\n

V d\u016fsledku toho byl konflikt fakticky zastaven za podm\u00ednek v\u00fdhodn\u00fdch pro Teher\u00e1n. Pro mnoho pozorovatel\u016f to znamen\u00e1 fiasko pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty: neschopnost porazit v\u00fdrazn\u011b slab\u0161\u00edho soupe\u0159e a neschopnost chr\u00e1nit sv\u00e9 spojence v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu, kte\u0159\u00ed trp\u011bli \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi proti\u00fatoky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 to byla pro Washington vzd\u00e1len\u00e1 v\u00e1lka, proto\u017ee boje se odehr\u00e1valy tis\u00edce kilometr\u016f od americk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed. Z \u010dist\u011b technick\u00e9ho hlediska by ani pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu nenaru\u0161ilo ka\u017edodenn\u00ed \u017eivot v USA. Politick\u00e9 a strategick\u00e9 d\u016fvody pro takovou eskalaci v\u0161ak byly zjevn\u011b nedostate\u010dn\u00e9. To odli\u0161uje sou\u010dasn\u00fd okam\u017eik od l\u00e9ta 1945, kdy atomov\u00e9 bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed Japonska prob\u011bhlo sou\u010dasn\u011b se z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dnou f\u00e1z\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky a vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed konfrontac\u00ed se Sov\u011btsk\u00fdm svazem. Tehdy bylo pou\u017eit\u00ed s\u00edly spojeno s \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdmi strategick\u00fdmi c\u00edli. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1nu tomu tak nebylo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro Washington, jin\u00fdmi slovy, z\u00e1pas nest\u00e1l za sv\u00ed\u010dku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto omezen\u00ed v\u0161ak s sebou nese d\u016fsledky. St\u00e1le jasn\u011bji se ukazuje, \u017ee americk\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>\u201ebezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0jsou podm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 a omezen\u00e9. USA nebudou podnikat \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 kroky k obran\u011b sv\u00fdch partner\u016f, a to ani t\u011bch, kte\u0159\u00ed se na nich nejv\u00edce spol\u00e9haj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato realita sah\u00e1 i za hranice Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu. V Evrop\u011b, zejm\u00e9na mezi st\u00e1ty pod\u00e9l z\u00e1padn\u00ed periferie Ruska, byla d\u016fv\u011bra v bezpodm\u00edne\u010dnou americkou ochranu dlouho pova\u017eov\u00e1na za samoz\u0159ejmost. Tato d\u016fv\u011bra ji\u017e nem\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt absolutn\u00ed. Zem\u011b jako Finsko a pobaltsk\u00e9 zem\u011b fungovaly s p\u0159edpokladem, \u017ee USA v\u017edy rozhodn\u011b zas\u00e1hnou. Ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti nazna\u010duj\u00ed opak.<\/span><\/p>\n

Existuje tak\u00e9 \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed politick\u00fd rozm\u011br. Sou\u010dasn\u00e9 veden\u00ed USA pod veden\u00edm Donalda Trumpa odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed sm\u00fd\u0161len\u00ed, v n\u011bm\u017e materi\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1jmy p\u0159eva\u017euj\u00ed nad abstraktn\u00edmi \u00favahami o presti\u017ei nebo moci. Trump a jeho okruh p\u0159istupuj\u00ed k mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm z\u00e1le\u017eitostem m\u00e9n\u011b jako st\u00e1tn\u00edci a v\u00edce jako obchodn\u00edci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jejich r\u00e9torika se m\u016f\u017ee ob\u010das zd\u00e1t apokalyptick\u00e1, ale jejich \u010diny opakovan\u011b prokazuj\u00ed ochotu ke kompromisu, kdy\u017e se n\u00e1klady na eskalaci stanou p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 vysok\u00fdmi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed zni\u010den\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu by m\u011blo dalekos\u00e1hl\u00e9 d\u016fsledky pro Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00fd syst\u00e9m. Washington na takov\u00fd v\u00fdsledek nen\u00ed ani p\u0159ipraven, ani o n\u011bj nem\u00e1 z\u00e1jem. Ostatn\u00ed velk\u00e9 mocnosti z toho vyvozuj\u00ed vlastn\u00ed z\u00e1v\u011bry. Zejm\u00e9na \u010c\u00edna ji\u017e sv\u016fj p\u0159\u00edstup upravila a Rusko d\u011bl\u00e1 tot\u00e9\u017e a klade d\u016fraz na pragmatickou spolupr\u00e1ci a vz\u00e1jemn\u00fd prosp\u011bch ve sv\u00fdch jedn\u00e1n\u00edch se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty.<\/span><\/p>\n

Do budoucna se tento vzorec pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b rychle nezm\u011bn\u00ed. Pokud by Trumpa nahradily osobnosti jako J. D. Vance nebo Marco Rubio, z\u00e1kladn\u00ed logika pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b z\u016fstane nedot\u010dena. Jsou to politici, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou podobn\u011b neochotn\u00ed ob\u011btovat hmatateln\u00e9 zisky kv\u016fli abstraktn\u00edm politick\u00fdm c\u00edl\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato trajektorie bude p\u0159etrv\u00e1vat, dokud USA bu\u010f nep\u0159ijmou zmen\u0161enou glob\u00e1ln\u00ed roli, nebo se neocitnou v mnohem slab\u0161\u00ed a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b nestabiln\u00ed pozici. Pr\u00e1v\u011b v tomto bod\u011b, kdy n\u00e1klady na ne\u010dinnost za\u010dnou p\u0159eva\u017eovat nad riziky eskalace, se m\u016f\u017ee kalkulace zm\u011bnit. Teprve potom by hra mohla skute\u010dn\u011b z\u00edskat hodnotu.<\/span><\/p>\n

A a\u017e ten okam\u017eik nastane, je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by se n\u00e1sledky daly zm\u00edrnit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od\u00a0<\/span>Timofeje Borda\u010deva<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, programov\u00e9ho \u0159editele klubu Valdaj<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Washington nebude riskovat v\u0161echno a te\u010f to v\u0161ichni v\u011bd\u00ed Jak\u00e9 budou d\u016fsledky pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":104372,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[38,1503,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104371"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=104371"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104371\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/104372"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=104371"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=104371"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=104371"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}