{"id":104369,"date":"2026-04-12T04:47:39","date_gmt":"2026-04-12T02:47:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=104369"},"modified":"2026-04-12T04:47:39","modified_gmt":"2026-04-12T02:47:39","slug":"jiri-paroubek-maji-mirova-jednani-mezi-usa-a-iranem-vubec-sanci","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/12\/jiri-paroubek-maji-mirova-jednani-mezi-usa-a-iranem-vubec-sanci\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: Maj\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem v\u016fbec \u0161anci?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Kdy\u017e 28. \u00fanora za\u010dala v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 operace USA a Izraele proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, m\u00e1lokdo \u010dekal v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1pletku. V\u017edy\u0165 p\u0159ece USA je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vojenskou mocnost\u00ed sv\u011bta a Izrael je nepochybn\u011b minim\u00e1ln\u011b region\u00e1ln\u00ed vojenskou mocnost\u00ed. Oba st\u00e1ty maj\u00ed tak\u00e9 obrovskou technologickou p\u0159evahu nad \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Mo\u017en\u00e1 tak\u00e9 proto, \u017ee o \u00cdr\u00e1nu toho mnoho na Z\u00e1pad\u011b nev\u00edme. Prost\u011b, mnoh\u00e9 \u00cdr\u00e1n a m\u00edra jeho odporu p\u0159ekvapil.<\/strong><\/p>\n

M\u011b zase a\u017e tolik ne. Ve sv\u00fdch \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch jsem od prvn\u00edho dne agrese USA a Izraele upozor\u0148oval na to, co mn\u011b p\u0159ed 20 lety kladl na srdce b\u00fdval\u00fd egyptsk\u00fd prezident Mubarak. Ten m\u011b tehdy po\u017e\u00e1dal, abych varoval \u0161\u00e9fy st\u00e1t\u016f a vl\u00e1d zem\u00ed EU a NATO p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou vedenou USA a Izraelem proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Tak\u00e9 tehdy tento konflikt latentn\u011b hrozil.<\/p>\n

Po n\u00e1vratu do Prahy ze st\u00e1tn\u00ed n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvy v Egypt\u011b jsem proto sepsal memorandum a rozeslal jej, tak jak po\u017eadoval Mubarak, v\u0161em \u0161\u00e9f\u016fm st\u00e1t\u016f a vl\u00e1d zem\u00ed EU a NATO. Ne\u0159\u00edk\u00e1m, \u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b toto memorandum bylo t\u00edm rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edm faktorem, kter\u00fd zp\u016fsobil m\u00edrovou koexistenci USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nu po n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edc\u00edch 20 let. T\u011bch varovn\u00fdch sign\u00e1l\u016f, kter\u00e9 americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da tehdy dostala, bylo ale jist\u011b v\u00edce. Zejm\u00e9na na n\u00ed museli nal\u00e9hat jej\u00ed spojenci ze st\u00e1t\u016f kolem Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. Ale v ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b byla tehdej\u0161\u00ed americk\u00e1 administrativa schopn\u00e1 l\u00e9pe pracovat s informacemi, kter\u00e9 dost\u00e1vala. Naopak, sou\u010dasn\u00e1 americk\u00e1 administrativa, kter\u00e9 se poda\u0159ilo lv\u00edm skokem zlikvidovat venezuelsk\u00e9ho prezidenta Madura a\u00a0\u00a0dotla\u010dit Venezuelu po velmi efektivn\u00edm vojensk\u00e9m z\u00e1sahu do vazalsk\u00e9ho vztahu. Trumpova vl\u00e1da dok\u00e1zala tak\u00e9 sk\u0159\u00edpnout nen\u00e1vid\u011bnou Kubu, kter\u00e1 je od roku 1959\u00a0\u00a0p\u0159\u00edmo vosinou v pozad\u00ed Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. Bez ohledu na to, \u017ee v d\u016fsledku nez\u00e1konn\u00fdch sankc\u00ed obyvatelstvo Kuby nev\u00fdslovn\u011b trp\u00ed…<\/p>\n

\u00a0Plna optimismu se tak Trumpova administrativa rozhodla k dal\u0161\u00edmu avanturistick\u00e9mu poru\u0161en\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho pr\u00e1va a v\u0161ech zvyklost\u00ed ve vztaz\u00edch mezi st\u00e1ty \u00fatokem na \u00cdr\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

Jak se nyn\u00ed ukazuje, americk\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby d\u00e1valy sv\u00e9mu prezidentovi dosti p\u0159esn\u00e9 a realistick\u00e9 informace. Naopak, izraelsk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edtel Netanjahu, mo\u017en\u00e1 vyfutrovan\u00fd \u0161patn\u00fdmi \u010di fale\u0161n\u011b chybn\u00fdmi informacemi Mossadu, p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dil Trumpa, pr\u00fd na hodinov\u00e9 prezentaci modelov\u00e9ho \u00fatoku na \u00cdr\u00e1n v B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b,\u00a0\u00a0\u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n sfouknou jako sv\u00ed\u010dku. A tak ob\u011b vl\u00e1dy do\u0161ly k n\u00e1zoru, \u017ee je mo\u017en\u00e9 vyvra\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm prakticky cel\u00e9 \u0161pi\u010dky v\u016fdc\u016f \u00cdr\u00e1nu doj\u00edt v t\u00e9to zemi k jak\u00e9musi p\u0159evratu zven\u010d\u00ed. Upozor\u0148oval jsem ji\u017e v po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edch f\u00e1z\u00edch agrese na to, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n je sv\u00e9ho druhu \u00fastavn\u00ed re\u017eim, ve kter\u00e9m se osoby ve veden\u00ed mohou m\u011bnit, nebo\u0165 upr\u00e1zdn\u011bn\u00e9 funkce ve veden\u00ed st\u00e1tu podle\u00a0\u00a0\u00fastavy\u00a0\u00a0mohou b\u00fdt okam\u017eit\u011b dopln\u011bny nov\u00fdmi lidmi. A tak se tak\u00e9 stalo. Byla sice vyvra\u017ed\u011bna prakticky cel\u00e1 prvn\u00ed garnitura \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch v\u016fdc\u016f (a\u017e na n\u011bkolik v\u00fdjimek) a p\u0159esto se st\u00e1t nepono\u0159il do chaosu. A uk\u00e1zalo se, \u017ee je neoby\u010dejn\u011b stabiln\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Konec konc\u016f americk\u00fd prezident p\u0159ed p\u00e1r dny ve\u0159ejn\u011b p\u0159iznal, \u017ee lednov\u00e9 protivl\u00e1dn\u00ed demonstrace v \u00cdr\u00e1nu, kter\u00e9 p\u0159ech\u00e1zely na mnoha m\u00edstech do n\u00e1silnost\u00ed, byly \u017eiveny ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed (tedy Ameri\u010dany). M\u016f\u017eeme dedukovat, \u017ee nejsp\u00ed\u0161e prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm CIA a jej\u00edch\u00a0\u00a0dod\u00e1vek zbran\u00ed \u00fadajn\u011b p\u0159es\u00a0\u00a0kurdsk\u00e9 zprost\u0159edkovatele. Tak\u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a Izrael se p\u0159ipravovaly na celou akci dlouhodob\u011b. P\u0159edst\u00edraly s \u00cdr\u00e1nem vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a uprost\u0159ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se podle om\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho zprost\u0159edkovatele vyv\u00edjelo uspokojiv\u011b, perfidn\u011b ude\u0159ily. B\u011bhem n\u011bkolika dn\u016f bylo zni\u010deno obstaro\u017en\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 letectvo a tak\u00e9 z v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo. Byly zni\u010deny t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161echny strategick\u00e9 c\u00edle v zemi. USA a Izrael jakoby se zhl\u00e9dly ve sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i, kter\u00fd kdysi uplat\u0148ovaly USA v\u016f\u010di br\u00e1n\u00edc\u00edmu se severn\u00edmu Vietnamu. Rozbombardovan\u00e1 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 infrastruktura, \u010detn\u00e9 civiln\u00ed ob\u011bti (a samoz\u0159ejm\u011b tak\u00e9 po\u010detn\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty mezi voj\u00e1ky), ale neochota Ameri\u010dan\u016f k z\u00e1sahu pozemn\u00edch vojsk\u00a0\u00a0(a nemo\u017enost toho, aby zas\u00e1hly izraelsk\u00e9 pozemn\u00ed jednotky), zp\u016fsobila, \u017ee konflikt se ocitl v patov\u00e9 situaci. To p\u0159inutilo Donalda Trumpa spolu s trpk\u00fdm pozn\u00e1n\u00edm, \u017ee nen\u00ed schopen vojensky porazit \u00cdr\u00e1n, k jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o m\u00edrov\u00e9 dohod\u011b. Podm\u00ednky, kter\u00e9 si p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u011b navz\u00e1jem p\u0159edlo\u017eily ob\u011b strany\u00a0\u00a0nasv\u011bd\u010duj\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e tomu, \u017ee dohody o m\u00edru nebude brzy dosa\u017eeno.<\/p>\n

A co bude d\u00e1l? Pokud se \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 elity a analytici pou\u010dili pr\u00e1v\u011b z vietnamsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, nebudou s uzav\u0159en\u00edm m\u00edrov\u00e9 dohody posp\u00edchat.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Sv\u011btov\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed, i pod tlakem dopadu konfliktu do sv\u011btov\u00e9 ekonomiky, se bude \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l v\u00edc obracet proti Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm. A stejn\u00e1 nespokojenost bude eskalovat tak\u00e9 v samotn\u00fdch Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech. To v\u0161e v situaci, kdy se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed listopadov\u00e9 dopl\u0148ovac\u00ed volby do Kongresu a volby guvern\u00e9r\u016f v \u0159ad\u011b st\u00e1t\u016f. Republik\u00e1nsk\u00e1 strana prezidenta Trumpa m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt v\u00e1\u017en\u00fd probl\u00e9m. Tedy, pokud bude v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd konflikt d\u00e9le trvat.\u00a0\u00a0Kdy\u017e bude uzav\u0159en b\u011bhem dvou t\u00fddn\u016f, do listopadu se na n\u011bj zapomene.<\/p>\n

Oba znep\u0159\u00e1telen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty si vym\u011bnily jak\u00e9si p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00e9 pozdravy. Prezident Trump vyhro\u017euje pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00edm v\u00e1lky. J\u00e1 dod\u00e1m jen, \u017ee zbyte\u010dn\u011b drah\u00e9 a nevyhrateln\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. V\u00e1lky, ve kter\u00e9 krom\u011b sv\u011btov\u00e9ho p\u00e1rii, tedy Izraele, nebude m\u00edt na sv\u00e9 stran\u011b nikoho. Tedy, nikoho ze z\u00e1padn\u00edch spojenc\u016f. Mo\u017en\u00e1 tak Estonsko anebo n\u011bkoho je\u0161t\u011b bezv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho.<\/p>\n

Naopak, \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 delegace p\u0159ivezla v letadle, kter\u00e9 pou\u017eila k cest\u011b do Isl\u00e1mab\u00e1du na sedadlech letadla fotografie anebo osobn\u00ed p\u0159edm\u011bty 165 d\u011bv\u010d\u00e1tek, kter\u00e9 byly zabity americk\u00fdmi \u010di izraelsk\u00fdmi raketami anebo pumami v prvn\u00edch des\u00edtk\u00e1ch hodin v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho konfliktu. Sv\u011btov\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed to jist\u011b vn\u00edm\u00e1. Osobn\u011b si mysl\u00edm, \u017ee by se rovnalo z\u00e1zraku, kdyby nyn\u00ed do\u0161lo k dojedn\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00e9 smlouvy. Viceprezident USA JD Vance by jist\u011b takovou v\u011bc uv\u00edtal. Nen\u00ed nejsp\u00ed\u0161 p\u0159\u00edtelem v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch anga\u017em\u00e1. Prezident Trump z\u0159ejm\u011b podlehl p\u0159i sv\u00e9m rozhodnut\u00ed za\u00fato\u010dit na \u00cdr\u00e1n zd\u00e1n\u00ed vlastn\u00ed velikosti a nep\u0159emo\u017eitelnosti. Ale znovu opakuji, pokud se \u00cdr\u00e1n pou\u010dil ze strategie severovietnamsk\u00fdch vyjednava\u010d\u016f z p\u0159elomu 60. a 70. let, bude to pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty strategick\u00e1 prohra monument\u00e1ln\u00edch rozm\u011br\u016f. By\u0165 v pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm konfliktu spln\u00ed jejich arm\u00e1da v\u0161echny sv\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 c\u00edle. To se koneckonc\u016f poda\u0159ilo americk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b i ve Vietnamu. A p\u0159esto Vietnam zv\u00edt\u011bzil.<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kdy\u017e 28. \u00fanora za\u010dala v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 operace USA a Izraele proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu, m\u00e1lokdo \u010dekal v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1pletku….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":100518,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[38,1060,1503,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104369"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=104369"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104369\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/100518"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=104369"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=104369"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=104369"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}