{"id":104317,"date":"2026-04-12T00:16:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-11T22:16:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=104317"},"modified":"2026-04-11T10:02:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-11T08:02:32","slug":"hotovost-je-kralem-dowd-ocekava-cenu-zlata-na-10-000-dolarech-protoze-uverovy-trh-pomalu-konci-vecirek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/12\/hotovost-je-kralem-dowd-ocekava-cenu-zlata-na-10-000-dolarech-protoze-uverovy-trh-pomalu-konci-vecirek\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201eHotovost je kr\u00e1lem\u201c \u2013 Dowd o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 cenu zlata na 10 000 dolarech, proto\u017ee \u00fav\u011brov\u00fd trh \u201epomalu kon\u010d\u00ed ve\u010d\u00edrek\u201c"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Spr\u00e1vce aktiv a finan\u010dn\u00ed analytik z Wall Street Ed Dowd ze spole\u010dnosti PhinanceTechnologies.com\u00a0<\/span>na konci ledna varoval, \u017ee se v oblasti tzv. soukrom\u00fdch p\u016fj\u010dek za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 objevovat \u201ecyklus ni\u010den\u00ed \u00fav\u011br\u016f\u201c.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Dowd vyj\u00e1d\u0159il znepokojen\u00ed nad extr\u00e9mn\u00edmi riziky v ekonomice, zejm\u00e9na vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee ve\u0161ker\u00fd r\u016fst \u00fav\u011br\u016f za posledn\u00ed dva roky poch\u00e1zel ze soukrom\u00e9ho \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9ho sektoru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zlep\u0161ila se situace, nebo se zhor\u0161ila?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Dowd \u0159\u00edk\u00e1: \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Zhor\u0161ilo se to a roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ilo se to<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u2026\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201ePo\u010det soukrom\u00fdch \u00fav\u011brov\u00fdch fond\u016f, kter\u00e9 blokuj\u00ed v\u00fdplaty od sv\u00fdch investor\u016f, neust\u00e1le roste. To je v\u00fdznamn\u00e9, proto\u017ee bohat\u00ed jednotlivci, poji\u0161\u0165ovny a penzijn\u00ed fondy investovaly do t\u011bchto soukrom\u00fdch \u00fav\u011brov\u00fdch fond\u016f miliony dolar\u016f a nyn\u00ed cht\u011bj\u00ed sv\u00e9 prost\u0159edky vybrat, ale v\u00fdplaty jsou zmrazeny. R\u016fst \u00fav\u011br\u016f v ekonomice v posledn\u00edch dvou letech byl zp\u016fsoben t\u00edm, \u017ee banky p\u016fj\u010dovaly soukrom\u00fdm \u00fav\u011brov\u00fdm fond\u016fm. Ve sv\u011bt\u011b soukrom\u00fdch \u00fav\u011brov\u00fdch fond\u016f do\u0161lo k \u0161okuj\u00edc\u00edm ud\u00e1lostem. To spustilo \u0159et\u011bzovou reakci, kdy se lid\u00e9 za\u010dali ob\u00e1vat o sv\u00e9 soukrom\u00e9 \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9 fondy.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Pak za\u010daly zp\u011btn\u00e9 odkupy<\/span><\/em><\/strong>\u00a0a n\u011bkter\u00e9 fondy, jako nap\u0159\u00edklad Blue Owl, utrp\u011bly obrovsk\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty.\u00a0<\/span><\/em>Musely sv\u00e9 prost\u0159edky zmrazit.<\/span><\/em><\/strong>\u00a0Apollo zmrazil sv\u016fj fond. BlackRock zmrazil sv\u016fj fond a KKR zmrazil sv\u016fj fond.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee existuje \u0159ada uzav\u00edrek.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

V podstat\u011b to znamen\u00e1 za\u010d\u00e1tek obratu v \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9m cyklu.<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

To za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 v nejv\u00edce posti\u017een\u00e9m sektoru, kter\u00fdm je z\u0159ejm\u011b trh soukrom\u00fdch \u00fav\u011br\u016f.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\u00dav\u011brov\u00fd trh proto za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 kon\u010dit ve\u010d\u00edrek a uvid\u00edme, jak to ovlivn\u00ed celkovou ekonomiku.\u201c<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

V\u00e1lka s \u00cdr\u00e1nem jen d\u00e1le urychluje cel\u00fd negativn\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dowd \u0159\u00edk\u00e1:\u00a0<\/span>\u201ePokud k tomu p\u0159id\u00e1te v\u00e1lku s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, celou v\u011bc to jen urychl\u00ed, pokud se nenajde rychl\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f finan\u010dn\u011b ochromen? Dowd \u0159\u00edk\u00e1:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eZ finan\u010dn\u00edho hlediska ano, ale nem\u00e1me jak v\u011bd\u011bt, co se d\u011bje nebo s k\u00fdm vyjedn\u00e1vaj\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/em>Je to jako informa\u010dn\u00ed vakuum. Propaganda je z obou stran.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Douf\u00e1m, \u017ee se to vy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed co nejrychleji, ani\u017e by bylo nutn\u00e9 nasadit na m\u00edsto voj\u00e1ky.<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Pokud se to poda\u0159\u00ed a Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv bude relativn\u011b rychle znovu otev\u0159en, dojde k o\u017eiven\u00ed na\u0161ich trh\u016f,\u00a0<\/span><\/em>ale s\u00edly p\u016fsob\u00edc\u00ed na ekonomiku se projev\u00ed i tak.<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Dojde k do\u010dasn\u00e9mu o\u017eiven\u00ed, ale p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1m, \u017ee syst\u00e9m si t\u00edm st\u00e1le projde.<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Pokud nebude existovat rychl\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, v\u0161echno se t\u00edm urychl\u00ed, proto\u017ee dojde k celosv\u011btov\u00e9mu poklesu popt\u00e1vky.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

To urychl\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed recesi, kterou podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru tak \u010di onak p\u0159ijde.\u201c<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Dowd zve\u0159ejnil zpr\u00e1vu, ve kter\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 budoucnost pro rok 2026. A\u0165 se na to d\u00edv\u00e1te jakkoli, jen m\u00e1lokdo vyv\u00e1zne bez \u00fahony a Dowdova progn\u00f3za pro rok 2026 s sebou nese mnohem v\u00edce. Dowd \u0159\u00edk\u00e1:\u00a0<\/span>\u201eJsem velmi opatrn\u00fd\u2026\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201eN\u00e1\u0161 z\u00e1v\u011br z na\u0161\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy je, \u017ee vysoce rizikov\u00e9 investice se ocitnou pod tlakem.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

V tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i jsou kr\u00e1lem hotovost… O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me, \u017ee inflace klesne. A\u010dkoli to ozna\u010dujeme jako \u0161ok z ceny ropy, nejedn\u00e1 se o infla\u010dn\u00ed \u0161ok, proto\u017ee to nakonec povede k poklesu popt\u00e1vky.<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Inflace kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b poroste, ale sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed se, jakmile se stabilizuj\u00ed ceny i v jin\u00fdch oblastech, zejm\u00e9na slo\u017eka indexu spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen v\u011bnovan\u00e1 bydlen\u00ed. Tato slo\u017eka je ji\u017e nyn\u00ed pod tlakem.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

N\u00e1jemn\u00e9 kleslo a ceny nemovitost\u00ed s t\u00edm v\u017edy jdou ruku v ruce.<\/span><\/em><\/strong>\u00a0Pronajmout si d\u016fm je nyn\u00ed levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e ho vlastnit.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Ceny nemovitost\u00ed klesnou a to samo o sob\u011b spust\u00ed recesi.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

P\u0159ipo\u010dt\u011bte k tomu prasklou bublinu um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence a \u010d\u00ednskou ekonomiku, kter\u00e1 letos jde dol\u016f, a m\u00e1te glob\u00e1ln\u00ed recesi…<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

…R\u00e1d bych v\u00e1m p\u0159ipomn\u011bl, \u017ee trh se soukrom\u00fdmi \u00fav\u011bry m\u011bl probl\u00e9my u\u017e p\u0159ed za\u010d\u00e1tkem v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem a trh se soukrom\u00fdmi \u00fav\u011bry je jako kan\u00e1rek v uheln\u00e9m dole.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Dowd nad\u00e1le p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1, \u017ee cena zlata v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch n\u011bkolika letech (do roku 2030) vzroste na 10 000 dolar\u016f za unci a v dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 optimistick\u00fd ohledn\u011b st\u0159\u00edbra.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Dowd podrobn\u011b rozeb\u00edr\u00e1 v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 probl\u00e9my, kter\u00fdm \u010del\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 ekonomika, a nevid\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dnou mo\u017enost, \u017ee by se zem\u011b v dohledn\u00e9 budoucnosti stala glob\u00e1ln\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed supervelmoc\u00ed. Toto je fascinuj\u00edc\u00ed anal\u00fdza finan\u010dn\u00ed situace \u010c\u00edny, kterou by si m\u011bl ka\u017ed\u00fd poslechnout.\u00a0<\/span>(Celou zpr\u00e1vu o \u010c\u00edn\u011b si m\u016f\u017eete objednat zde.)<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Stejn\u011b jako Martin Armstrong je Dowd\u00a0<\/span>siln\u00fdm zast\u00e1ncem vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed z\u00e1sob potravin a vody pro p\u0159\u00edpad naru\u0161en\u00ed dodavatelsk\u00e9ho \u0159et\u011bzce.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

V\u00edce se dozv\u00edte v 47minutov\u00e9m rozhovoru.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159ipojte se k Gregu Hunterovi z USAWatchdog v jeho individu\u00e1ln\u00edm rozhovoru se spr\u00e1vcem majetku a investi\u010dn\u00edm expertem Edem Dowdem, kter\u00fd vysv\u011btluje, pro\u010d \u010del\u00edme velk\u00fdm probl\u00e9m\u016fm pro americkou ekonomiku. Dowd to p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl ji\u017e v lednu ve sv\u00e9 zpr\u00e1v\u011b s n\u00e1zvem \u201eV\u00fdhled americk\u00e9 ekonomiky pro rok 2026\u201c.<\/p>\n

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