{"id":104315,"date":"2026-04-12T00:15:20","date_gmt":"2026-04-11T22:15:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=104315"},"modified":"2026-04-11T09:59:22","modified_gmt":"2026-04-11T07:59:22","slug":"scott-ritter-a-larry-johnson-analyzuji-eskalaci","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/12\/scott-ritter-a-larry-johnson-analyzuji-eskalaci\/","title":{"rendered":"Scott Ritter a Larry Johnson analyzuj\u00ed eskalaci"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<h3><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n uzav\u0159el Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, Izrael torp\u00e9dou poru\u0161il Trumpovo p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 diskusi v podcastu Geopolitics s moder\u00e1torem Dannym Haiphongem osv\u011btlili b\u00fdval\u00fd inspektor OSN pro zbran\u011b a d\u016fstojn\u00edk americk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva Scott Ritter a b\u00fdval\u00fd analytik CIA Larry Johnson vysoce nestabiln\u00ed situaci na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">D\u016fraz byl kladen na neexistuj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed mezi USA za prezidenta Trumpa a \u00cdr\u00e1nem, t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u00fapln\u00e9 uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi silami a prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na Libanon, kter\u00e9 hroz\u00ed podkop\u00e1n\u00edm cel\u00e9ho procesu vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Scott Ritter a Larry Johnson: \u00cdr\u00e1n se mst\u00ed, Hormuzsk\u00e1 oblast UZAV\u0158ENA \u2013 Izrael UKON\u010cUJE Trumpovo p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/sySgSUEnpO4?feature=oembed\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dramatick\u00e1 v\u00fdchoz\u00ed situace podle Dannyho Haiphonga<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Danny Haiphong zah\u00e1jil vys\u00edl\u00e1n\u00ed prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm, \u017ee situace je dramatick\u00e1: \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd n\u00e1m\u011bstek ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed odlo\u017eil pl\u00e1novanou odvetu raketami a drony proti Izraeli, proto\u017ee Izrael pokra\u010duje v bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed Libanonu, p\u0159i kter\u00e9m za posledn\u00edch 24 hodin zahynulo p\u0159es 200 lid\u00ed a tis\u00edce dal\u0161\u00edch bylo zran\u011bno.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">P\u00e1kist\u00e1n se zav\u00e1zal, \u017ee vyu\u017eije prost\u0159edn\u00edk\u016f k tomu, aby Trumpa p\u0159im\u011bl k ovl\u00e1dnut\u00ed Izraele.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Haiphong se odvol\u00e1val na zpr\u00e1vy, \u017ee Trump telefonoval Netanjahuovi a nal\u00e9hal na deeskalaci v Libanonu, aby ochr\u00e1nil jedn\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 p\u0159esto\u017ee jak Trumpova administrativa, tak Izrael zd\u016fraz\u0148ovali, \u017ee Libanon se p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed ne\u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Izrael nicm\u00e9n\u011b pl\u00e1nuje samostatn\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s libanonskou vl\u00e1dou pod palbou kritiky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Haiphong se Scotta Rittera konkr\u00e9tn\u011b zeptal na \u00edr\u00e1nskou kontrolu nad Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem, kter\u00e1 byla zjevn\u011b siln\u011b omezena nebo \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b uzav\u0159ena: Za posledn\u00edch 24 hodin proplula pr\u016flivem pouze jedin\u00e1 lo\u010f a cel\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed bylo na pokraji ohro\u017een\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Scott Ritter: \u201eNeexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u201c<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Scott Ritter okam\u017eit\u011b objasnil:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eZa prv\u00e9, neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. P\u0159esta\u0148me mluvit o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Neexistuje. Existuj\u00ed p\u0159edzv\u011bsti mo\u017en\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Konflikt byl od za\u010d\u00e1tku chaotick\u00fd \u2013 Izrael bombardoval Bejr\u00fat a Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty za\u00fato\u010dily na \u00edr\u00e1nskou ropnou infrastrukturu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V \u00cdr\u00e1nu existuje 31 autonomn\u00edch vojensk\u00fdch okruh\u016f, z nich\u017e n\u011bkter\u00e9 nemus\u00ed optim\u00e1ln\u011b komunikovat s \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed vl\u00e1dou, a proto nad\u00e1le funguj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Politicky je situace minov\u00e9 pole: USA a \u00cdr\u00e1n p\u0159edlo\u017eily ka\u017ed\u00fd 15, respektive 10 kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch bod\u016f, kter\u00e9 budou porovn\u00e1ny b\u011bhem dvou t\u00fddn\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Nic se p\u0159edem vlastn\u011b nedohodlo, krom\u011b pot\u0159eby promluvit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ritter ozna\u010dil ud\u00e1losti v Libanonu za \u201eabsolutn\u011b tragick\u00e9\u201c, ale zd\u016fraznil:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eJe to Izrael. Co \u010dek\u00e1\u0161?\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">USA p\u0159ijaly Libanon jako sou\u010d\u00e1st p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, proto\u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n si to stanovil jako podm\u00ednku.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">P\u00e1kist\u00e1n dal jasn\u011b najevo, \u017ee Washington to ch\u00e1pe.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Probl\u00e9mem v\u0161ak byla nedostate\u010dn\u00e1 koordinace s Izraelem: Netanjahu byl \u201evelmi ne\u0161\u0165astn\u00fd\u201c a ozna\u010dil Libanon a Hizball\u00e1h za \u201ezvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed probl\u00e9m\u201c, se kter\u00fdm je t\u0159eba d\u00e1le bojovat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Izrael nyn\u00ed hraje hru t\u00edm, \u017ee po\u017eaduje samostatn\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s libanonskou vl\u00e1dou \u2013 to v\u0161e je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho taktick\u00e9ho man\u00e9vru.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Limity eskalace a prostor pro vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Scott Ritter d\u00e1le analyzoval: \u00cdr\u00e1n i USA dos\u00e1hly maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b sv\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00fdch eskala\u010dn\u00edch \u017eeb\u0159\u00ed\u010dk\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Dal\u0161\u00ed kroky by znamenaly \u201etrval\u00e9 \u0161kody\u201c pro ob\u011b strany \u2013 pro Trumpa politicky, proto\u017ee ho zaj\u00edm\u00e1 jen jeho vlastn\u00ed odkaz a listopadov\u00e9 volby (\u201enejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed narcista\u201c).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n by zase nem\u011bl zaj\u00edt tak daleko, aby nebyl schopen splnit sv\u016fj 47let\u00fd z\u00e1vazek v\u016f\u010di vlastn\u00edmu lidu a vytvo\u0159it ekonomickou prosperitu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Jadern\u00fd spor je ot\u00e1zkou hrdosti, nikoli nutnosti; Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv je naopak ot\u00e1zkou p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Nicm\u00e9n\u011b prostor pro jedn\u00e1n\u00ed existuje, nap\u0159\u00edklad ohledn\u011b spole\u010dn\u00e9 spr\u00e1vy pr\u016flivu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ritter optimisticky uzav\u0159el:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eNeexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, ale jsem velmi optimistick\u00fd, \u017ee k n\u011bmu dojde.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Larry Johnson: \u201e\u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd prostor pro vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Larry Johnson oponoval my\u0161lence skute\u010dn\u00e9ho vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edho prostoru drastickou metaforou:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eJe to jako vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed mezi dv\u011bma lidmi o tom, co cht\u011bj\u00ed j\u00edst. Jedna strana \u2013 \u0159\u00edkejme tomu USA \u2013 chce sn\u00edst kus kravsk\u00e9ho hnoje zamo\u0159en\u00fd \u010dervy. Druh\u00e1 strana, \u00cdr\u00e1n, chce steak.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 st\u0159edn\u00ed cesta.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Deset \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch bod\u016f nen\u00ed p\u0159edm\u011btem vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, ale jedn\u00e1 se o nevyjedn\u00e1vateln\u00e9 po\u017eadavky, kter\u00e9 mus\u00ed b\u00fdt spln\u011bny je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed zah\u00e1jen\u00edm rozhovor\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n nebude vyjedn\u00e1vat o m\u00ed\u0159e uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ajatoll\u00e1h objasnil:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">&#8222;Je pod novou spr\u00e1vou.&#8220;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Nejd\u0159\u00edve mus\u00ed b\u00fdt zru\u0161eny sankce \u2013 \u00cdr\u00e1n u\u017e byl jednou podveden s JCPOA, splnil v\u0161echny po\u017eadavky, povolil inspekce a st\u00e1le nic nedostal, kdy\u017e Trump dohodu zru\u0161il.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Johnson pochyboval, \u017ee by \u00cdr\u00e1n z\u00edtra do m\u00edstnosti v\u016fbec vpustil z\u00e1stupce jako Witoff a Jared Kushner.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159ipomn\u011bl, \u017ee USA se ji\u017e zav\u00e1zaly k Libanonu, Jemenu a Ir\u00e1ku, ale Trump po masivn\u00edm tlaku Izraele a sionistick\u00fdch kruh\u016f n\u00e1hle v\u0161e st\u00e1hl.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Izrael pot\u00e9 bombardoval Bejr\u00fat \u201ezp\u011bt do doby kamenn\u00e9\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Eskalaci zastavily pouze intervence P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu a \u010c\u00edny.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Vojensk\u00e1 realita a pochybnosti o s\u00edle USA<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Scott Ritter ozna\u010dil Trumpovy ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 hrozby za pr\u00e1zdn\u00e9 \u0159e\u010di:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eKdokoli mus\u00ed \u0159\u00edkat, \u017ee je kr\u00e1l, kr\u00e1lem nen\u00ed.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">USA vy\u010derpaly v\u0161echny vhodn\u00e9 c\u00edle; dal\u0161\u00ed \u00fatoky by byly \u010dist\u00fdmi v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdmi zlo\u010diny a kolektivn\u00edm trestem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da z\u0159ejm\u011b dala Trumpovi jasn\u011b najevo, \u017ee takov\u00e9 nez\u00e1konn\u00e9 rozkazy nebudou plnit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Nebyla u\u017e munice pro smyslupln\u00e9 \u00fatoky na dlouhou vzd\u00e1lenost, \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana nebyla pora\u017eena, n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo bylo neporu\u0161en\u00e9, stejn\u011b jako letectvo.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1 operace v Isfah\u00e1nu byla \u201ekatastrofou typu Desert One\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n pln\u011b ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv a mohl by kdykoli u\u0161krtit glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Ritter uzav\u0159el:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eUSA jsou pap\u00edrov\u00fd tygr. U\u017e nem\u00e1me \u017e\u00e1dnou vojenskou kapacitu.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Varoval, \u017ee USA \u010c\u00edn\u011b pr\u00e1v\u011b dok\u00e1zaly, \u017ee ani ony nemohou br\u00e1nit Tchaj-wan.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Larry Johnson: Vojensk\u00e1 struktura je zastaral\u00e1<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Larry Johnson p\u0159idal historick\u00e1 srovn\u00e1n\u00ed:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Americk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly jsou zam\u011b\u0159eny na model 20. stolet\u00ed; letadlov\u00e9 lod\u011b a oboj\u017eiveln\u00e9 operace ji\u017e nefunguj\u00ed proti modern\u00edm hypersonick\u00fdm zbran\u00edm a dron\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Mari\u0148\u00e1ci zru\u0161ili sv\u00e9 tanky; arm\u00e1da byla p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mal\u00e1 na velk\u00e9 invaze.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1n p\u0159esunul v\u0161echny d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 v\u011bci do podzem\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00e1lka u\u017e nem\u00e1 jasn\u00fd c\u00edl pro USA; \u00cdr\u00e1n dos\u00e1hl sv\u00e9ho jedin\u00e9ho c\u00edle: p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed a donucen\u00ed nep\u0159\u00edtele k jednac\u00edmu stolu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Johnson p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl, \u017ee Izrael bude muset brzy st\u00e1hnout sv\u00e1 vojska a \u017ee sobotn\u00ed rozhovory uk\u00e1\u017eou, zda to mysl\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u011b \u2013 nebo zda z\u016fstane nep\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n\u00edm p\u0159es P\u00e1kist\u00e1n, kter\u00e9 nic neznamen\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Scott Ritter podrobn\u011b popsal sest\u0159elen\u00ed letounu F-15 a n\u00e1slednou \u201ez\u00e1chrannou misi\u201c, kter\u00e1 ve skute\u010dnosti byla ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdm n\u00e1letem na Isfah\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Americk\u00e1 ve\u0159ejn\u00e1 dezinforma\u010dn\u00ed kampa\u0148, nab\u00edjen\u00ed C-130 bombami Little-B\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00cdr\u00e1n uzav\u0159el Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, Izrael torp\u00e9dou poru\u0161il Trumpovo p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed V ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 diskusi v podcastu Geopolitics&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":104316,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,107,220,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104315"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=104315"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104315\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/104316"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=104315"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=104315"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=104315"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}