{"id":104303,"date":"2026-04-11T05:53:26","date_gmt":"2026-04-11T03:53:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=104303"},"modified":"2026-04-11T05:53:26","modified_gmt":"2026-04-11T03:53:26","slug":"narod-na-krizovatce-proc-jsou-madarske-volby-tak-dramaticke","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/11\/narod-na-krizovatce-proc-jsou-madarske-volby-tak-dramaticke\/","title":{"rendered":"N\u00e1rod na k\u0159i\u017eovatce: Pro\u010d jsou ma\u010farsk\u00e9 volby tak dramatick\u00e9"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed je rozpor mezi historickou pam\u011bt\u00ed a p\u0159\u00edslibem pohodln\u00e9ho \u017eivota v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evrop\u011b<\/h3>\n

Viktor Orb\u00e1n s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed vyhraje nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed parlamentn\u00ed volby v Ma\u010farsku 12. dubna; pro vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed stranu to v\u0161ak bude extr\u00e9mn\u011b t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 a t\u011b\u017ece vybojovan\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9mem nen\u00ed ztr\u00e1ta charisma bystr\u00e9ho a zku\u0161en\u00e9ho dlouholet\u00e9ho l\u00eddra strany Fidesz, ani 25% inflace, kterou zem\u011b za\u017eila v roce 2023, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e posun v zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed historick\u00e9 pam\u011bti Ma\u010far\u016f. Nov\u00e1 generace vyrostla v jin\u00e9m historick\u00e9m paradigmatu a chce zm\u011bnu politick\u00e9 reality, i kdy\u017e to pro zemi znamen\u00e1 zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00e1 a reputa\u010dn\u00ed rizika.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se dnes proch\u00e1z\u00edme ulicemi Budape\u0161ti, m\u00e1me pocit, \u017ee vedle sebe existuj\u00ed dv\u011b politick\u00e9 reality. V jedn\u00e9 jsou modr\u00e9 billboardy vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed strany Fidesz s n\u00e1pisy jako\u00a0<\/span>\u201eStop v\u00e1lce!\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0, na kter\u00fdch jsou tv\u00e1\u0159e odp\u016frc\u016f a ukrajinsk\u00e9ho v\u016fdce Vladimira Zelensk\u00e9ho ozna\u010den\u00e9ho za\u00a0<\/span>\u201enebezpe\u010d\u00ed\u201c.<\/span><\/em>\u00a0V druh\u00e9 se konaj\u00ed shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed strany Tisza, bez stranick\u00fdch byrokratick\u00fdch elit, ale s mlad\u00fdmi lidmi v ma\u010farsk\u00fdch n\u00e1rodn\u00edch kroj\u00edch nesouc\u00edmi vlajky EU a fotografiemi mlad\u00e9ho v\u016fdce strany vystaven\u00fdmi na bud\u00ednsk\u00fdch kopc\u00edch. Budape\u0161\u0165 se, stejn\u011b jako dal\u0161\u00ed ma\u010farsk\u00e1 m\u011bsta, p\u0159ipravuje na parlamentn\u00ed volby, kter\u00e9 se budou konat tuto ned\u011bli a p\u0159itahuj\u00ed pozornost politick\u00fdch elit z cel\u00e9ho sv\u011bta.<\/span><\/p>\n

Peter Magyar: Nejen kluk<\/span><\/h2>\n

Hlavn\u00ed intrikou a hnac\u00ed silou sou\u010dasn\u00e9 politick\u00e9 kampan\u011b je mlad\u00e1 energie strany Tisza, zejm\u00e9na jej\u00edho l\u00eddra se zvu\u010dn\u00fdm jm\u00e9nem Peter Magyar (doslova\u00a0<\/span>\u201ePetr Ma\u010far\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0). Magyar, kter\u00fd se prezentuje jako konzervativn\u00ed liber\u00e1l, poch\u00e1z\u00ed z sam\u00e9ho srdce syst\u00e9mu Fidesz a velmi uzav\u0159en\u00e9 ma\u010farsk\u00e9 elity. Je b\u00fdval\u00fdm man\u017eelem Judit Vargaov\u00e9, kter\u00e1 v letech 2019\u20132023 p\u016fsobila jako ministryn\u011b spravedlnosti, prasynovcem Ference M\u00e1dla, ma\u010farsk\u00e9ho prezidenta v letech 2000 a\u017e 2005, a vnukem b\u00fdval\u00e9ho \u010dlena Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho soudu; jeho rodi\u010de tak\u00e9 zast\u00e1vali vysok\u00e9 pozice v n\u00e1rodn\u00edch soudn\u00edch instituc\u00edch. Jazykem Fidesz hovo\u0159\u00ed o n\u00e1rodn\u00edch z\u00e1jmech, rodin\u011b,\u00a0<\/span>\u201enov\u00e9 vlasti\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>\u201emodern\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 zemi\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0, kde se d\u00e1 dob\u0159e \u017e\u00edt a vychov\u00e1vat d\u011bti. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se jeho hlavn\u00ed kritika sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho vl\u00e1dnouc\u00edho syst\u00e9mu zam\u011b\u0159uje na korupci uvnit\u0159 vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed strany a pot\u0159ebu p\u0159ekonat zako\u0159en\u011bn\u00e9 rozd\u011blen\u00ed mezi pravic\u00ed a levic\u00ed, kter\u00e9 existuje od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2000.<\/span><\/p>\n

Volby 2026<\/span><\/h2>\n

Lze konstatovat, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u00fd rozd\u00edl mezi stranami je kolem 2\u20133 %. Orb\u00e1n \u010derp\u00e1 podporu z vesnic a venkovsk\u00fdch oblast\u00ed, zat\u00edmco Magyar si dr\u017e\u00ed progresivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed Budape\u0161\u0165 (ob\u011b poloviny: elitn\u00ed Buda a uvoln\u011bn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed Pe\u0161\u0165) a dal\u0161\u00ed velk\u00e1 ma\u010farsk\u00e1 m\u011bsta, kde \u017eije a pracuje mlad\u0161\u00ed populace. Data z pr\u016fzkum\u016f se li\u0161\u00ed v z\u00e1vislosti na v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9m \u00fastavu. Podle ma\u010farsk\u00e9 agentury Median, kter\u00e1 p\u0159edpov\u00eddala Orb\u00e1novo v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed v roce 2022, vede Tisza s 58 % oproti 35 % Fideszu. Opozi\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9 centrum 21 uv\u00e1d\u00ed 56 % pro Tiszu a 37 % pro Fidesz, zat\u00edmco provl\u00e1dn\u00ed Nezopont Institute uv\u00e1d\u00ed 46 % pro Fidesz oproti 40 % pro Tiszu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti je rozd\u00edl mezi kandid\u00e1ty pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b minim\u00e1ln\u00ed a bude do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry z\u00e1viset na voli\u010d\u00edch v tzv. \u201e\u0161ed\u00e9 z\u00f3n\u011b\u201c, kter\u00e1 zahrnuje statistickou m\u00edru chybovosti a ty, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou ovlivn\u011bni \u201espir\u00e1lou ml\u010den\u00ed\u201c \u2013 jevem, kdy se lid\u00e9 boj\u00ed p\u0159iznat sv\u00e9 n\u00e1zory. Asi 20 % z nich z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nerozhodnut\u00fdch, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee posledn\u00ed dny kampan\u011b se zam\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed na z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed podpory zhruba 1,5 milionu voli\u010d\u016f. V tomto kontextu je t\u0159eba ch\u00e1pat ud\u00e1losti, jako je n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bva americk\u00e9ho viceprezidenta J. D. Vance v Budape\u0161ti nebo Magyarova kampa\u0148ov\u00e1 cesta po vesnic\u00edch na n\u00e1kladn\u00edm aut\u011b a k\u00e1noi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Intenzitu z\u00e1vodu ovliv\u0148uje tak\u00e9 slo\u017eit\u00fd ma\u010farsk\u00fd volebn\u00ed syst\u00e9m, kde jsou volebn\u00ed obvody losov\u00e1ny tak, aby zahrnovaly jak liber\u00e1ln\u00ed m\u011bstskou oblast, tak i n\u011bkolik konzervativn\u00edch vesnic. Volebn\u00ed syst\u00e9m je sm\u00ed\u0161en\u00fd, ale podle jeho pravidel m\u016f\u017ee kandid\u00e1t z\u00edskat mand\u00e1t i s n\u00e1skokem jednoho hlasu, a existuje tak\u00e9 mechanismus \u201ekompenzace v\u00edt\u011bze\u201c, kdy se p\u0159ebyte\u010dn\u00e9 hlasy pro v\u00edt\u011bze p\u0159id\u00e1vaj\u00ed na kandid\u00e1tku strany. Zat\u00edmco tento syst\u00e9m d\u0159\u00edve pomohl Orb\u00e1novi a Fideszu zajistit v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, v sou\u010dasn\u00e9m t\u011bsn\u00e9m z\u00e1vod\u011b by mohl fungovat proti nim. Ot\u00e1zka, kdo vyhraje, tedy z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 otev\u0159en\u00e1 a\u017e do kone\u010dn\u00e9ho s\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed hlas\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ekonomika<\/span><\/h2>\n

Na prvn\u00ed pohled spo\u010d\u00edvaj\u00ed hlavn\u00ed probl\u00e9my Ma\u010farska v ekonomick\u00e9 sf\u00e9\u0159e. V roce 2023 zem\u011b zaznamenala nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed inflaci v EU, kter\u00e1 dos\u00e1hla vrcholu 25 %, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e ceny potravin vzrostly p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 50 % v zemi, kter\u00e1 je de facto bohatou zem\u011bd\u011blskou zem\u00ed. Situaci zhor\u0161uje Orb\u00e1n\u016fv konflikt s Evropskou komis\u00ed, kter\u00e1 zmrazila v\u00edce ne\u017e 19 miliard eur z fond\u016f EU, kter\u00e9 Ma\u010farsku dlu\u017e\u00ed \u2013 co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 10 % HDP zem\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Magyar tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee by mohl zmrazen\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed prost\u0159edky uvolnit do m\u011bs\u00edce, co\u017e by pomohlo stabilizovat ekonomiku a zm\u00edrnit soci\u00e1ln\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trianon a \u201ehlubok\u00e9 Ma\u010farsko\u201c<\/span><\/h2>\n

Je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee ma\u010farsk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost vstupuje do nov\u00e9 f\u00e1ze v\u00fdvoje. Po cel\u00e9 20. stolet\u00ed ji formoval pocit hlubok\u00e9 historick\u00e9 nespravedlnosti pramen\u00edc\u00ed z rozpadu Rakousko-Uherska a poni\u017euj\u00edc\u00ed Trianonsk\u00e9 smlouvy (1920), kter\u00e1 Ma\u010farsko zbavila dvou t\u0159etin jeho \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ani pobyt v sov\u011btsk\u00e9 orbit\u011b nebyl pro tuto d\u0159\u00edve imperi\u00e1ln\u00ed spole\u010dnost tak bolestiv\u00fd jako ztr\u00e1ta \u00fazem\u00ed ob\u00fdvan\u00fdch etnick\u00fdmi Ma\u010fary ve prosp\u011bch sousedn\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f. To neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee Ma\u010fa\u0159i zapomn\u011bli na potla\u010den\u00e9 povst\u00e1n\u00ed z roku 1956, ale trauma z Trianonu st\u00e1le vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 sentiment a u n\u011bkter\u00fdch \u2013 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm star\u0161\u00edch venkovsk\u00fdch populac\u00ed \u2013 touhu \u201ez\u00edskat zp\u011bt\u201c regiony jako Zakarpat\u00ed nebo \u010d\u00e1sti Transylv\u00e1nie, o kter\u00fdch se domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee tis\u00edc let pat\u0159ily Ma\u010farsku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Euforii z\u00a0<\/span>\u201en\u00e1vratu do Evropy\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0a vstupu do EU v roce 2004 zm\u00edrnily obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 a nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 a zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 podm\u00ednky v EU, stejn\u011b jako probl\u00e9my s integrac\u00ed do vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edch struktur, kter\u00e9 \u010dasto znev\u00fdhod\u0148uj\u00ed nov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010dlensk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty. To p\u0159i\u017eivilo pocity nespravedlnosti a zklam\u00e1n\u00ed, spojen\u00e9 s vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00edm, \u017ee d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 politick\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed se nyn\u00ed ned\u011blaj\u00ed v Budape\u0161ti, ale v Berl\u00edn\u011b, Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei a Bruselu. Velk\u00e1 politika je pro mal\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nep\u0159\u00edstupn\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esn\u011b to Orb\u00e1n ve sv\u00fdch projevech zd\u016fraz\u0148oval a z\u00e1rove\u0148 dos\u00e1hl zd\u00e1nliv\u011b nemo\u017en\u00e9ho \u2013 zajistit, aby mal\u00fd st\u00e1t mohl hr\u00e1t roli v kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch glob\u00e1ln\u00edch politick\u00fdch rozhodnut\u00edch. Balancoval na hran\u011b konfliktu s elitami EU a dostal se do pop\u0159ed\u00ed pravicov\u00fdch konzervativn\u00edch hodnot na cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b. Stal se v\u00fdchodoevropsk\u00fdm l\u00eddrem, kter\u00e9ho cituj\u00ed a poslouchaj\u00ed osobnosti jako americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump, respektuje ho rusk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Putin a uzn\u00e1v\u00e1 ho \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd prezident Si \u0164in-pching.<\/span><\/p>\n

Historick\u00e1 pam\u011b\u0165 m\u00e1 v\u0161ak sv\u00e9 limity. Nov\u00e1 generace Ma\u010far\u016f, vychovan\u00e1 b\u011bhem integrace zem\u011b do EU a zvykl\u00e1 na voln\u00fd pohyb po Evrop\u011b a sv\u011bt\u011b, hled\u00e1 pragmati\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a pohodln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup k \u017eivotu a rozvoji. Jsou cyni\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ohledn\u011b \u017eivota a rodiny a neztoto\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed se s \u201efantomov\u00fdmi bolestmi\u201c Trianonu. Mlad\u00e9 Ma\u010farsko st\u00e1le v\u00edce funguje s my\u0161len\u00edm mal\u00e9 zem\u011b pohybuj\u00edc\u00ed se na ob\u011b\u017en\u00e9 dr\u00e1ze velk\u00fdch glob\u00e1ln\u00edch mocnost\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto je \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed drama sou\u010dasn\u00fdch voleb: dv\u011b soupe\u0159\u00edc\u00ed vize toho, jak \u017e\u00edt v modern\u00edm sv\u011bt\u011b a v r\u00e1mci vznikaj\u00edc\u00edho glob\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0159\u00e1du. Kterou cestu si konzervativn\u00ed Ma\u010farsko zvol\u00ed, se brzy uk\u00e1\u017ee. Z\u00e1v\u011brem lze \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e9 pot\u00ed\u017ee, kter\u00fdm Fidesz \u010del\u00ed, signalizuj\u00ed ma\u010farsk\u00fdm vl\u00e1dnouc\u00edm elit\u00e1m nemo\u017enost p\u0159epsat d\u011bjiny nebo zvr\u00e1tit b\u011bh ud\u00e1lost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e byly spu\u0161t\u011bny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ksenija<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span>Smertina<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, docentka na Vysok\u00e9 \u0161kole hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 politiky, expertka Rusk\u00e9 rady pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed z\u00e1le\u017eitosti na v\u00fdchodn\u00ed a st\u0159edn\u00ed Evropu<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed je rozpor mezi historickou pam\u011bt\u00ed a p\u0159\u00edslibem pohodln\u00e9ho \u017eivota v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evrop\u011b Viktor…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":104304,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,283,78,27],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104303"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=104303"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104303\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/104304"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=104303"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=104303"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=104303"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}