{"id":104271,"date":"2026-04-11T00:28:35","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T22:28:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=104271"},"modified":"2026-04-10T17:25:48","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T15:25:48","slug":"iran-ctyri-ponauceni-z-krehkeho-primeri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/11\/iran-ctyri-ponauceni-z-krehkeho-primeri\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00cdr\u00e1n: \u010cty\u0159i ponau\u010den\u00ed z k\u0159ehk\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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P\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed mezi Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a \u00cdr\u00e1nem s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed nebude trvat dlouho: nahromad\u011bn\u00e9 rozpory z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nevy\u0159e\u0161eny, zejm\u00e9na s ohledem na pozici Izraele. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b je vhodn\u00e9 ji\u017e nyn\u00ed vyvodit n\u011bkter\u00e9 p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u011bry, kter\u00e9 by se mohly uk\u00e1zat jako u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e9 v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 \u00e9\u0159e.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Zaprv\u00e9<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, a to je nejz\u0159ejm\u011bj\u0161\u00ed: ve v\u00e1lce v\u017edycky p\u0159evy\u0161uje kvantita kvalitu. Ani velmi vysok\u00e1 koncentrace nejlep\u0161\u00edch americk\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany nedok\u00e1zala ochr\u00e1nit ropnou rafinerii v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu p\u0159ed n\u00e1sledn\u00fdmi \u00fatoky levn\u00fdch a nemodern\u00edch dron\u016f: zasa\u017eeny byly samotn\u00e9 syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany, jejich\u017e radary byly vy\u0159azeny z provozu, a tak\u00e9 pr\u016fmysl, kter\u00fd chr\u00e1nily.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V takov\u00e9 konfrontaci se rozd\u00edl mezi vojensk\u00fdmi rozpo\u010dty st\u00e1v\u00e1 m\u00e9n\u011b rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edm.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Raketa Shahed stoj\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nskou ekonomiku m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e protiletadlov\u00e1 st\u0159ela Patriot americkou ekonomiku a lze je hromadit mnohem rychlej\u0161\u00edm tempem.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e se nejedn\u00e1 o v\u0161el\u00e9k, dal\u0161\u00ed reakc\u00ed za t\u011bchto okolnost\u00ed by bylo ud\u011blat krok zp\u011bt na technologick\u00e9m \u017eeb\u0159\u00ed\u010dku protiletadlov\u00e9 obrany, a to obnoven\u00edm v\u00fdroby a masivn\u00edm nasazen\u00edm automatick\u00fdch protiletadlov\u00fdch kan\u00f3n\u016f r\u00e1\u017ee 20 a\u017e 76 mm a protiletadlov\u00fdch kulomet\u016f. To plat\u00ed zejm\u00e9na vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee pokroky v robotice mohou v\u00fdrazn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161it \u00fa\u010dinnost t\u011bchto zbran\u00ed, a to i v noci a za \u0161patn\u00e9ho po\u010das\u00ed, a to s mnohem men\u0161\u00edm po\u010dtem person\u00e1lu, ne\u017e jak\u00fd vy\u017eadovalo protiletadlov\u00e9 d\u011blost\u0159electvo na vrcholu sv\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje ve 40. a na za\u010d\u00e1tku 50. let. Lasery se st\u00e1le objevuj\u00ed na obzoru, ale vzhledem k omezen\u00edm t\u00e9to technologie, kter\u00e1 je pro mise protiletadlov\u00e9 obrany st\u00e1le relativn\u011b neosv\u011bd\u010den\u00e1, lze d\u011blost\u0159electvo nasadit mnohem rychleji.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Za druh\u00e9<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 aliance, a\u0165 u\u017e sebesiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, nezaru\u010duje \u00fa\u010dast partner\u016f ve v\u00e1lk\u00e1ch veden\u00fdch v\u016fdcem aliance, pokud nec\u00edt\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00e1lka je jejich vlastn\u00ed. A co se t\u00fd\u010de schopnosti p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit sv\u00e9 spojence o v\u00fdhod\u00e1ch takov\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dasti, Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty jsou dnes mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b efektivn\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159ed 25 lety. To je v\u00e1\u017en\u00fd probl\u00e9m, vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee koali\u010dn\u00ed strategie je ji\u017e dlouho z\u00e1kladem americk\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed. Dnes je zpochyb\u0148ov\u00e1na.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd ze spojenc\u016f Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, s v\u00fdjimkou Izraele, se v\u00e1lky ne\u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed a existuje jen m\u00e1lo zp\u016fsob\u016f, jak je k tomu donutit.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se cht\u011bj\u00ed i nad\u00e1le spol\u00e9hat na Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, pokud jde o \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed hrozeb, kter\u00e9 se jich p\u0159\u00edmo t\u00fdkaj\u00ed. Uv\u011bdomuje si to Donald Trump? Velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ano, jinak by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nemluvil o vystoupen\u00ed z NATO.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Za t\u0159et\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lek s vyu\u017eit\u00edm um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence (AI) je z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e1 chyba. AI dok\u00e1\u017ee vypo\u010d\u00edtat materi\u00e1ln\u00ed aspekty probl\u00e9mu, ale kdy\u017e je po\u017e\u00e1d\u00e1na o p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f lidsk\u00fdch reakc\u00ed, nedok\u00e1\u017ee to spolehliv\u011b ud\u011blat.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdsledek: operace, kter\u00e1 m\u011bla v\u00e9st ke zm\u011bn\u011b re\u017eimu ihned po smrti nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho v\u016fdce, se zm\u011bnila v prodlou\u017eenou v\u00e1lku s dosud nejist\u00fdm v\u00fdsledkem.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A jeliko\u017e nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 zak\u00e1zat pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence v opera\u010dn\u00edm pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed dekretem, bude st\u00e1le v\u00edce v\u00e1lek, v nich\u017e se st\u00e1ty pust\u00ed do podce\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed jak vlastn\u00edch schopnost\u00ed, tak i schopnost\u00ed sv\u00fdch potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch protivn\u00edk\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Za \u010dtvrt\u00e9<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, vlastnit prost\u0159edky k v\u00fdrob\u011b jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, ale nikdy tak neu\u010dinit, je nejhor\u0161\u00ed mo\u017en\u00fd postup. Dnes se v mnoha hrani\u010dn\u00edch st\u00e1tech jasn\u011b klade ot\u00e1zka: co d\u011blat s touto v\u00fdhodou? Zejm\u00e9na proto, \u017ee chov\u00e1n\u00ed Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f se st\u00e1v\u00e1 st\u00e1le nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ilja Kramnik<\/a>, v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk \u00dastavu sv\u011btov\u00e9 ekonomiky a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch vztah\u016f Rusk\u00e9 akademie v\u011bd (IMEMO RAS)<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

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P\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed mezi Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a \u00cdr\u00e1nem s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed nebude trvat dlouho: nahromad\u011bn\u00e9 rozpory z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":104272,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[7327,1042,4199,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104271"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=104271"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104271\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/104272"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=104271"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=104271"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=104271"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}