{"id":104227,"date":"2026-04-10T06:03:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T04:03:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=104227"},"modified":"2026-04-10T06:03:00","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T04:03:00","slug":"amerika-dosahla-hranic-sve-moci","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/10\/amerika-dosahla-hranic-sve-moci\/","title":{"rendered":"Amerika dos\u00e1hla hranic sv\u00e9 moci"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Washingtonsk\u00fd \u00fastup a zrod nov\u00e9 \u00e9ry<\/h3>\n

Donald Trump vyhl\u00e1sil za\u010d\u00e1tek nov\u00e9ho\u00a0<\/span>\u201ezlat\u00e9ho v\u011bku\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b pot\u00e9, co ozn\u00e1mil p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. V\u00e1lka byla, alespo\u0148 prozat\u00edm, pozastavena. A i kdy\u017e jsou p\u0159edpov\u011bdi v tomto B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b v\u017edy riskantn\u00ed, existuje alespo\u0148 \u0161ance, \u017ee boje nebudou okam\u017eit\u011b obnoveny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jedin\u011b na tom z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed. Dlouhodob\u00e1 v\u00e1lka by p\u0159inesla rizika pro v\u0161echny, ale p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm pro Washington. Navzdory ve\u0161ker\u00e9 bombastick\u00e9 kritice americk\u00e9 administrativy se Amerika v\u017edy c\u00edtila hluboce nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u011b z dlouhodob\u00e9 nejistoty a strategick\u00e9ho rizika. Jedna v\u011bc je vyhro\u017eovat. Druh\u00e1 v\u011bc je sn\u00e1\u0161et n\u00e1sledky, kdy\u017e hrozby sel\u017eou.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esn\u00e9 podm\u00ednky p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nejasn\u00e9 a mo\u017en\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b nebyly pln\u011b dohodnuty. \u00dast\u0159edn\u00ed politick\u00fd fakt je v\u0161ak ji\u017e patrn\u00fd: tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 rozhodn\u00e9mu odporu USA ustoupily.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd z rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch po\u017eadavk\u016f stanoven\u00fdch na za\u010d\u00e1tku operace nebyl spln\u011bn. Trump\u016fv po\u017eadavek na \u00cdr\u00e1nskou\u00a0<\/span>\u201eBEZPODM\u00cdNE\u010cNOU KAPITULACI!\u201c,<\/span><\/em>\u00a0napsan\u00fd velk\u00fdmi p\u00edsmeny , nyn\u00ed vypad\u00e1 sp\u00ed\u0161e jako politick\u00e9 divadlo ne\u017e strategick\u00e1 doktr\u00edna. Za dramatem na soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00edch v\u0161ak ve Washingtonu p\u0159evl\u00e1dlo n\u011bco racion\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00edho: kdy\u017e tlak sel\u017ee, je lep\u0161\u00ed ustoupit, ne\u017e eskalovat do situace, kterou u\u017e mo\u017en\u00e1 nem\u00e1te pod kontrolou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hore\u010dn\u00e1 r\u00e9torika p\u0159ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm slou\u017eila sv\u00e9mu \u00fa\u010delu. Umo\u017enila Washingtonu tvrdit, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n zamrkal, a z\u00e1rove\u0148 vytvo\u0159ila takov\u00fd pocit hroz\u00edc\u00ed katastrofy, \u017ee jak\u00e9koli p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed boj\u016f mohlo b\u00fdt vyd\u00e1no za \u00falevu. B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm se nyn\u00ed bude sna\u017eit prezentovat zdr\u017eenlivost jako v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento konflikt je nepochybn\u011b miln\u00edkem v \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed transformaci mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu. Nen\u00ed to v\u0161ak konec tohoto procesu. Ani nen\u00ed to posledn\u00ed kapitola v boji o Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm prok\u00e1zal odolnost. Zcela podkopal z\u00e1kladn\u00ed p\u0159edpoklad americko-izraelsk\u00e9 kampan\u011b: \u017ee dostate\u010dn\u011b siln\u00fd \u00fader by sta\u010dil k p\u00e1du Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky nebo k jej\u00edmu donucen\u00ed k podroben\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Teher\u00e1nsk\u00e1 reakce nebyla v konven\u010dn\u00edm vojensk\u00e9m smyslu nijak velkolep\u00e1, ale byla \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e1. \u00cdr\u00e1n roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159il pole nap\u011bt\u00ed a signalizoval, \u017ee n\u00e1klady na eskalaci se neomez\u00ed pouze na vojensk\u00e9 c\u00edle. Donutil sv\u00e9 oponenty po\u010d\u00edtat nejen s \u00edr\u00e1nskou odvetou, ale i s k\u0159ehkost\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho region\u00e1ln\u00edho syst\u00e9mu.<\/span><\/p>\n

To je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, proto\u017ee odolnost USA a jejich region\u00e1ln\u00edch partner\u016f je omezen\u00e1. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 naopak historicky vydr\u017eela mnohem v\u00edce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Takzvan\u00e1 Osa odporu se tak\u00e9 uk\u00e1zala b\u00fdt odoln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e mnoz\u00ed p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dali. Navzdory v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdm \u0161kod\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 Izrael v posledn\u00edch dvou letech zp\u016fsobil, z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed pro\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 s\u00edly v Libanonu, Jemenu a Ir\u00e1ku strategick\u00fdm faktorem. I tam, kde p\u0159\u00edmo nezas\u00e1hly, zv\u00fd\u0161ily teplotu a donutily \u00fato\u010dn\u00edky z\u016fstat napjat\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0160ir\u0161\u00ed snaha o neutralizaci \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho vlivu se proto obr\u00e1tila proti nim. \u00cdr\u00e1n z toho vy\u0161el zkrvaven\u00fd, ale st\u00e1le na nohou. I kdy\u017e jsou teher\u00e1nsk\u00e1 tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee jak\u00e9koli urovn\u00e1n\u00ed mus\u00ed prob\u011bhnout za jeho podm\u00ednek, \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00ed taktikou, jedna v\u011bc je ji\u017e jasn\u00e1: region\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1ha \u00cdr\u00e1nu se nesn\u00ed\u017eila tak, jak to Washington a z\u00e1padn\u00ed Jeruzal\u00e9m zam\u00fd\u0161lely.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s Teher\u00e1nem jsou nyn\u00ed nevyhnuteln\u00e1. Skute\u010dnou ot\u00e1zkou je, co chce samotn\u00fd \u00cdr\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jeho p\u0159edchoz\u00ed strategie region\u00e1ln\u00ed expanze p\u0159isp\u011bla k mnoha kriz\u00edm, kter\u00e9 nyn\u00ed zachvacuj\u00ed Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod. Existuje tak\u00e9 nevy\u0159e\u0161en\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka jeho jadern\u00e9ho programu: co p\u0159esn\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1n usiluje a jakou cenu je ochoten zaplatit? Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n tak\u00e9 vstoupil do nov\u00e9 vnit\u0159n\u00ed f\u00e1ze, kdy se moc v\u00edce p\u0159esouv\u00e1 k bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm instituc\u00edm. Toto veden\u00ed nyn\u00ed bude muset zv\u00e1\u017eit ambice s realitou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed region jsou d\u016fsledky hlubok\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Monarchie v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu za\u017eily st\u0159\u00edzlivou zku\u0161enost. Nebude se muset vracet k pohodln\u00e9mu star\u00e9mu sch\u00e9matu, kdy by bezpe\u010dnost mohla b\u00fdt jednodu\u0161e outsourcov\u00e1na Washingtonu v\u00fdm\u011bnou za pen\u00edze a loajalitu. Toto uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 bylo z\u00e1kladem regionu od studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, bylo t\u011b\u017ece ot\u0159eseno.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve\u0159ejn\u011b st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b neud\u011blaj\u00ed dramatick\u00e1 gesta. V soukrom\u00ed se v\u0161ak jejich hled\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00fdch z\u00e1bran a partner\u016f zintenzivn\u00ed. \u010c\u00edna, ji\u017en\u00ed Asie, Rusko a v men\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e i z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evropa v jejich kalkulac\u00edch nabudou na v\u00fdznamu.<\/span><\/p>\n

To neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv akceptuje \u00edr\u00e1nskou dominanci. Monarchie nebudou tolerovat nekontrolovan\u00fd vliv Teher\u00e1nu nad Persk\u00fdm z\u00e1livem ani mo\u017enost diktovat podm\u00ednky v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu. Jejich politika se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b stane slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed: bude \u00cdr\u00e1n omezovat, kde je to mo\u017en\u00e9, a v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u0159eby s n\u00edm jednat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Izrael mezit\u00edm tak\u00e9 nedos\u00e1hl sv\u00fdch deklarovan\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f. A\u0165 u\u017e je v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed jakkoli hlasit\u011b prohla\u0161ov\u00e1no, z\u00e1kladn\u00ed strategick\u00e1 realita se nezm\u011bnila. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd faktor z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1. Nebyl eliminov\u00e1n ani dostate\u010dn\u011b oslaben, aby se Izrael c\u00edtil skute\u010dn\u011b bezpe\u010dn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dom\u00e1c\u00ed d\u016fsledky pro USA je t\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed posoudit. Trumpovo sebeblahop\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed u\u017e te\u010f zn\u00ed pr\u00e1zdn\u011b, ale hodn\u011b bude z\u00e1viset na ekonomice. Pokud se trhy s ropou stabilizuj\u00ed, B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm se bude sna\u017eit rychle jednat a trvat na tom, \u017ee katastrof\u011b se poda\u0159ilo odvr\u00e1tit d\u00edky Trumpovu veden\u00ed. Zda to pom\u016f\u017ee republik\u00e1n\u016fm v listopadov\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch v polovin\u011b volebn\u00edho obdob\u00ed, nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump v\u0161ak v\u017edycky m\u011bl jeden instinkt, kter\u00fd jeho kritici \u010dasto podce\u0148uj\u00ed: v\u00ed, jak p\u0159e\u017e\u00edt ne\u00fasp\u011bchy a p\u0159ehodnotit je.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0160ir\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1v\u011br v\u0161ak jde za hranice Trumpa. USA z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nesm\u00edrn\u011b mocn\u00e9. Jejich vojensk\u00fd dosah, finan\u010dn\u00ed p\u00e1ka a schopnost ovliv\u0148ovat ud\u00e1losti jsou st\u00e1le impozantn\u00ed. Nejsou v\u0161ak neomezen\u00e9. Amerika sice st\u00e1le m\u016f\u017ee ovliv\u0148ovat v\u00fdsledek, ale u\u017e nem\u016f\u017ee jednodu\u0161e vnucovat svou v\u016fli za ka\u017edou cenu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto ponau\u010den\u00ed se nyn\u00ed vst\u0159ebalo daleko za hranicemi Teher\u00e1nu. Spojenci i protivn\u00edci si z toho vyvod\u00ed vlastn\u00ed z\u00e1v\u011bry. \u00cdr\u00e1n sice m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpadem, ale precedent byl vytvo\u0159en.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto je dal\u0161\u00ed krok k jin\u00e9mu sv\u011btu, v n\u011bm\u017e je n\u00e1tlak m\u00e9n\u011b rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed a star\u00e9 p\u0159edpoklady o americk\u00e9 v\u0161emohoucnosti st\u00e1le v\u00edce zastaral\u00e9. Trump si mo\u017en\u00e1 p\u0159eje nahradit liber\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159\u00e1d veden\u00fd Amerikou neliber\u00e1ln\u00edm \u0159\u00e1dem pod dominanc\u00ed USA. Ud\u00e1losti posledn\u00edch t\u00fddn\u016f v\u0161ak nazna\u010duj\u00ed n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho: sv\u011bt se posouv\u00e1 za hranice jak\u00e9hokoli \u0159\u00e1du, kter\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee Washington pln\u011b ovl\u00e1dat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od\u00a0<\/span>Fjodora Lukjanova<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, \u0161\u00e9fredaktora \u010dasopisu Rusko v glob\u00e1ln\u00edch z\u00e1le\u017eitostech, p\u0159edsedy prezidia Rady pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed a obrannou politiku a \u0159editele v\u00fdzkumu Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho diskusn\u00edho klubu Valdaj.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\"Fjodor<\/a><\/div>\n
\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Washingtonsk\u00fd \u00fastup a zrod nov\u00e9 \u00e9ry Donald Trump vyhl\u00e1sil za\u010d\u00e1tek nov\u00e9ho\u00a0\u201ezlat\u00e9ho v\u011bku\u201c\u00a0na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b pot\u00e9,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":104228,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1669,1042,2181,220,1749],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104227"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=104227"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104227\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/104228"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=104227"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=104227"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=104227"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}