{"id":104213,"date":"2026-04-10T05:34:07","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T03:34:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=104213"},"modified":"2026-04-10T05:34:07","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T03:34:07","slug":"lucas-leiroz-iran-a-usa-dosahly-dohody-o-primeri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/10\/lucas-leiroz-iran-a-usa-dosahly-dohody-o-primeri\/","title":{"rendered":"Lucas Leiroz: \u00cdr\u00e1n a USA dos\u00e1hly dohody o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

P\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed nad\u011bji na m\u00edr, ale situace z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nestabiln\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Po v\u00edce ne\u017e m\u011bs\u00edci v\u00e1lky se \u00cdr\u00e1nu a americko-izraelsk\u00e9 koalici kone\u010dn\u011b poda\u0159ilo dos\u00e1hnout do\u010dasn\u00e9 dohody o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Budoucnost nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nejist\u00e1 a k n\u00e1vratu do aktivn\u00ed f\u00e1ze konfliktu by mohlo doj\u00edt kdykoli. \u010c\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 uzav\u0159en\u00ed dohody je v\u0161ak znamen\u00edm nad\u011bje a p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enost stability glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomice.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dohoda podepsan\u00e1 7. dubna stanovila nezbytn\u00e9 podm\u00ednky pro \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 zastaven\u00ed vojensk\u00fdch operac\u00ed na obou stran\u00e1ch. Zaprv\u00e9, dohoda slou\u017e\u00ed ob\u011bma hlavn\u00edm v\u00e1l\u010d\u00edc\u00edm stran\u00e1m \u2013 \u00cdr\u00e1nu na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b a Izraeli a USA na stran\u011b druh\u00e9. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b a izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed budou v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch dnech u\u0161et\u0159eny \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f, stejn\u011b jako \u00cdr\u00e1n nebude ter\u010dem \u00fatok\u016f sv\u00fdch nep\u0159\u00e1tel. St\u00e1le nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, zda jsou do dohody zahrnuty i dal\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b zapojen\u00e9 do konfliktu, jako nap\u0159\u00edklad sunnitsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 podporuj\u00ed USA a \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 z\u00e1stupce v Jemenu, Libanonu a Ir\u00e1ku. Na internetu koluj\u00ed protich\u016fdn\u00e9 informace a ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed potvrzen\u00ed je st\u00e1le zapot\u0159eb\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee pauza potrv\u00e1 dva t\u00fddny. B\u011bhem t\u011bchto t\u00fddn\u016f budou v\u00e1l\u010d\u00edc\u00ed strany diskutovat o mo\u017enosti trval\u00e9 dohody. Delegace obou stran jsou v Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du, hlavn\u00edm m\u011bst\u011b P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu, kde vedou bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed rozhovory. P\u00e1kist\u00e1n, zem\u011b bl\u00edzk\u00e1 \u00cdr\u00e1nu i USA, se od za\u010d\u00e1tku konfliktu sna\u017e\u00ed hr\u00e1t roli diplomatick\u00e9ho prost\u0159edn\u00edka. \u00cdr\u00e1n dosud v\u0161echny americk\u00e9 n\u00e1vrhy odm\u00edtl s t\u00edm, \u017ee se do rozhovor\u016f zapoj\u00ed a\u017e po spln\u011bn\u00ed \u0159ady nevyjedn\u00e1vateln\u00fdch po\u017eadavk\u016f (desetibodov\u00fd pl\u00e1n). Washington deset n\u00e1vrh\u016f p\u0159ijal, co\u017e umo\u017en\u00ed pokro\u010dilej\u0161\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch dnech.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ozn\u00e1men\u00e1 dohoda je pro \u00cdr\u00e1n mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b v\u00fdhodn\u00e1 a odhaluje strategickou por\u00e1\u017eku americko-izraelsk\u00e9 koalice. V\u0161echny \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 po\u017eadavky na p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed byly spln\u011bny, v\u010detn\u011b uzn\u00e1n\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 pravomoci nad Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem (spole\u010dn\u011b s Om\u00e1nem), p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e lod\u011b proplouvaj\u00edc\u00ed regionem jsou nyn\u00ed povinny platit tranzitn\u00ed poplatek Teher\u00e1nu. \u00cdr\u00e1nu bylo rovn\u011b\u017e sl\u00edbeno zru\u0161en\u00ed v\u0161ech ekonomick\u00fdch sankc\u00ed, finan\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1hrady \u0161kod zp\u016fsoben\u00fdch konfliktem a respektov\u00e1n\u00ed jeho pr\u00e1vn\u00edho programu pro m\u00edrov\u00e9 vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed jadern\u00e9 energie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zka Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu byla jednou z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch zm\u011bn v regionu. Form\u00e1ln\u00ed uzn\u00e1n\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 kontroly hluboce m\u011bn\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed rovnov\u00e1hu sil a d\u00e1v\u00e1 Teher\u00e1nu pravomoc monitorovat, zda\u0148ovat nebo dokonce br\u00e1nit tranzitu plavidel v n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed z\u00f3n\u011b, kde se pohybuje v\u00edce ne\u017e 20 % sv\u011btov\u00e9ho trhu s energi\u00ed. Je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv nen\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed z\u00f3nou. Region je tvo\u0159en pr\u016fse\u010d\u00edkem teritori\u00e1ln\u00edch vod \u00cdr\u00e1nu a Om\u00e1nu, ale v p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9m obdob\u00ed se v regionu voln\u011b pohybovaly lod\u011b z cel\u00e9ho sv\u011bta. \u00cdr\u00e1n se rozhodl zm\u011bnit status pr\u016flivu a z\u00edskat zp\u011bt sv\u00e9 pr\u00e1vo kontroly kv\u016fli skute\u010dnosti, \u017ee n\u00e1rody spojen\u00e9 s USA a Izraelem vyu\u017e\u00edvaly region pro sv\u00e9 politick\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dely.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee izraelsk\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed a \u00fa\u0159ady reagovaly na tuto zm\u011bnu velmi negativn\u011b. Na soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00edch, v tisku a v odborn\u00fdch koment\u00e1\u0159\u00edch se Izraelci zdaj\u00ed b\u00fdt rozzu\u0159eni rozhodnut\u00edm USA p\u0159ijmout \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 podm\u00ednky. Tel Aviv z\u0159ejm\u011b pl\u00e1noval pokra\u010dovat ve vojensk\u00fdch operac\u00edch i p\u0159es eskalaci situace. Hlavn\u00edm probl\u00e9mem v\u0161ak je, \u017ee Izrael je mal\u00e1 zem\u011b s omezen\u00fdmi silami, zcela z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na americk\u00e9 pomoci p\u0159i veden\u00ed v\u00e1lky. USA utrp\u011bly t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty, ztratily n\u011bkolik z\u00e1kladen v regionu a utrp\u011bly obrovsk\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 \u0161kody. Washington nem\u011bl jinou mo\u017enost, ne\u017e tla\u010dit na Tel Aviv, aby dohodu p\u0159ijal, proto\u017ee v\u00e1lka USA \u0161kodila.<\/span><\/p>\n

St\u00e1le nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, zda Izrael skute\u010dn\u011b ukon\u010d\u00ed sv\u00e9 operace. Vl\u00e1da Benjamina Netanjahua se nach\u00e1z\u00ed ve slo\u017eit\u00e9 politick\u00e9 situaci od incident\u016f z \u0159\u00edjna 2023, kdy Izrael zah\u00e1jil v p\u00e1smu Gazy ofenz\u00edvu s nep\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u00fdm pou\u017eit\u00edm s\u00edly, kterou mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed organizace klasifikovaly jako genocidu. Vnitrost\u00e1tn\u00ed opozice Netanjahua obvi\u0148uje ze zn\u00e1soben\u00ed konflikt\u016f a z toho, \u017ee od t\u00e9 doby nebyl schopen neutralizovat ani jednoho nep\u0159\u00edtele, a nav\u00edc vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed izolaci a diplomatick\u00fd nesouhlas s Izraelem. Aby se Netanjahu udr\u017eel u moci a vyhnul se \u017ealob\u00e1m o impeachment, mus\u00ed udr\u017eovat zemi v neust\u00e1l\u00e9m vojensk\u00e9m konfliktu, co\u017e mu umo\u017e\u0148uje pou\u017e\u00edvat v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dohoda se ve skute\u010dnosti v n\u011bkolika ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch jev\u00ed jako extr\u00e9mn\u011b k\u0159ehk\u00e1 a nejist\u00e1. V hodin\u00e1ch po ozn\u00e1men\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed bylo hl\u00e1\u0161eno n\u011bkolik vojensk\u00fdch incident\u016f, a to jak v \u00cdr\u00e1nu, tak v arabsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch a Izraeli. Je st\u00e1le p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 brzy na to, abychom tvrdili, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o \u201eporu\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u201c, proto\u017ee v prvn\u00edch hodin\u00e1ch po dohod\u011b nen\u00ed situace jasn\u00e1 v\u0161em vojensk\u00fdm jednotk\u00e1m zapojen\u00fdm do nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed. D\u00e1le je nutn\u00e9 si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee mezi Izraelem a jeho region\u00e1ln\u00edmi nep\u0159\u00e1teli, zejm\u00e9na Hizball\u00e1hem v Libanonu, existuje jak\u00e9si \u201etich\u00e9 porozum\u011bn\u00ed\u201c ohledn\u011b sporadick\u00fdch, neeskaluj\u00edc\u00edch p\u0159est\u0159elek. Je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee by se podobn\u00e1 situace mohla vyvinout i mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Izraelem, a to i p\u0159es rizika tohoto typu sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dohoda by mohla b\u00fdt \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1, ale bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed v Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1du by se mohla nerozvinout a po dvou t\u00fddnech by se nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed mohlo vr\u00e1tit. Dokud z\u016fstanou z\u00e1kladn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny konfliktu (americk\u00fd intervencionismus, izraelsk\u00fd expanzionismus a pokusy o vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed se do vnit\u0159n\u00edch z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu) nevy\u0159e\u0161eny, bude m\u00edr k\u0159ehk\u00fd a budou i nad\u00e1le propuk\u00e1vat nov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. \u010c\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed by v\u0161ak mohlo alespo\u0148 na kr\u00e1tkou dobu znovu vyv\u00e1\u017eit trh s energi\u00ed a zaru\u010dit tak stabilitu glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lucas Leiroz<\/a>, \u010dlen Asociace novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f BRICS, v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk Centra pro geostrategick\u00e1 studia, vojensk\u00fd expert<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed nad\u011bji na m\u00edr, ale situace z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nestabiln\u00ed. Po v\u00edce ne\u017e…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":104214,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,4199,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104213"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=104213"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104213\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/104214"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=104213"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=104213"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=104213"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}