{"id":104167,"date":"2026-04-10T00:17:06","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T22:17:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=104167"},"modified":"2026-04-09T12:15:55","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T10:15:55","slug":"seyed-m-marandi-izrael-porusuje-primeri-iran-reaguje-raketovymi-utoky-a-mozne-scenare","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/10\/seyed-m-marandi-izrael-porusuje-primeri-iran-reaguje-raketovymi-utoky-a-mozne-scenare\/","title":{"rendered":"Seyed M. Marandi: Izrael poru\u0161uje p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u00cdr\u00e1n reaguje raketov\u00fdmi \u00fatoky a mo\u017en\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">V ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m rozhovoru s americk\u00fdm novin\u00e1\u0159em Glennem analyzuje \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd profesor Seyed Mohammad Marandi nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b. Marandi, p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161ej\u00edc\u00ed na Teher\u00e1nsk\u00e9 univerzit\u011b a b\u00fdval\u00fd poradce \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edho t\u00fdmu, popisuje poru\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed Izraelem, odvetn\u00e9 akce \u00cdr\u00e1nu a slo\u017eit\u00e9 pozad\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s USA.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Seyed M. Marandi: Izrael poru\u0161uje p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u00cdr\u00e1n reaguje raketov\u00fdmi \u00fadery\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/4JLpmWX_Eu8?feature=oembed\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Sou\u010dasn\u00fd konflikt a poru\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Podle Marandiho Izrael masivn\u011b poru\u0161il ned\u00e1vno dohodnut\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. B\u011bhem nahr\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed rozhovoru 8. dubna byly \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 rakety odp\u00e1leny sm\u011brem k Izraeli v p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 reakci na prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na Libanon. Izrael bombarduje libanonsk\u00e1 m\u011bsta a civilisty kobercem, co\u017e m\u00e1 za n\u00e1sledek stovky ob\u011bt\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b mnoha \u017een a d\u011bt\u00ed. To se d\u011bje navzdory dohod\u011b o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Marandi zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r jasn\u011b tweetoval, \u017ee Libanon je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Americk\u00fd prezident Trump nicm\u00e9n\u011b tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o \u201esamostatnou \u0161arv\u00e1tku\u201c. Tyto rozpory demonstruj\u00ed Trumpovu slabost a Netanjahu\u016fv z\u00e1m\u011br \u00famysln\u011b sabotovat m\u00edrov\u00fd proces. \u00datoky slou\u017e\u00ed k podkop\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed a k dosa\u017een\u00ed jeho vlastn\u00edch politick\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f dal\u0161\u00ed radikalizac\u00ed izraelsk\u00e9ho obyvatelstva.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Pozad\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed a \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd pl\u00e1n<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Rozhovor osv\u011btluje pozad\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. USA p\u016fvodn\u011b po\u017eadovaly \u201ebezpodm\u00edne\u010dnou kapitulaci\u201c \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 podobn\u011b jako v p\u0159edchoz\u00ed dvan\u00e1ctidenn\u00ed v\u00e1lce. Tento postoj se vyvinul v 15bodov\u00fd pl\u00e1n, kter\u00fd \u00cdr\u00e1n odm\u00edtl. M\u00edsto toho \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed rada n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti za \u00fa\u010dasti nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho v\u016fdce Al\u00edho Chamene\u00edho vypracovala vlastn\u00ed 10bodov\u00fd pl\u00e1n. Ten byl prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu p\u0159ed\u00e1n USA a nakonec jej Trump p\u0159ijal jako z\u00e1klad pro jedn\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Marandi popisuje tento krok jako symbolicky v\u00fdznamn\u00fd: Arogantn\u00ed \u0159\u00ed\u0161e, jako jsou USA, byla nucena uznat pr\u00e1va suver\u00e9nn\u00edho n\u00e1roda. Skepticismus je nicm\u00e9n\u011b na m\u00edst\u011b. USA jsou extr\u00e9mn\u011b arogantn\u00ed \u0159\u00ed\u0161e a Trump je nejarogantn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed z \u201ec\u00edsa\u0159\u016f\u201c. Jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s n\u00edm jsou nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e1, proto\u017ee neust\u00e1le m\u011bn\u00ed sv\u00e9 postoje.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Vojensk\u00e1 situace a \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 s\u00edla<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Navzdory p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed se \u00cdr\u00e1n p\u0159ipravuje na nejhor\u0161\u00ed. Marandi, kter\u00fd s\u00e1m v 80. letech bojoval jako dobrovoln\u00edk v \u00edr\u00e1nsko-ir\u00e1ck\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, poukazuje na dlouhodob\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpravy \u00cdr\u00e1nu: Zem\u011b ji\u017e v\u00edce ne\u017e 25 let vyv\u00edj\u00ed a hromad\u00ed rakety a drony \u2013 mnohem v\u00edce, ne\u017e druh\u00e1 strana podez\u0159\u00edv\u00e1. B\u011bhem posledn\u00edch 40 dn\u016f \u00cdr\u00e1n nep\u0159etr\u017eit\u011b \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na c\u00edle v Izraeli, americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny a dal\u0161\u00ed akt\u00e9ry zapojen\u00e9 do konfliktu, ani\u017e by jakkoli ztratil sv\u00e9 schopnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">USA \u010del\u00ed z\u00e1va\u017en\u00fdm probl\u00e9m\u016fm: jejich jednotky byly do regionu narychlo nasazeny, z\u00e1kladny byly zni\u010deny a extr\u00e9mn\u00ed klimatick\u00e9 podm\u00ednky (horko, vlhkost, p\u00edse\u010dn\u00e9 bou\u0159e) v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu v\u00e1\u017en\u011b ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed vybaven\u00ed a logistiku. N\u00e1klady na opravy v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch v\u00e1lk\u00e1ch dos\u00e1hly stovek miliard dolar\u016f. K tomu se p\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 vnitropolitick\u00fd tlak v USA a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed kritika. Uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu \u00cdr\u00e1nem tento tlak d\u00e1le zesiluje.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Role Izraele, USA a z\u00e1padn\u00edch m\u00e9di\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Marandi ost\u0159e kritizuje dvoj\u00ed metr Z\u00e1padu. Zat\u00edmco Izrael bombarduje libanonsk\u00e9 civiln\u00ed oblasti podle \u201edoktr\u00edny Dahiya\u201c (systematick\u00e9 ni\u010den\u00ed cel\u00fdch \u010dtvrt\u00ed) \u2013 srovnateln\u00e9 se \u201esek\u00e1n\u00edm tr\u00e1vn\u00edku\u201c v Gaze \u2013 z\u00e1padn\u00ed tisk ml\u010d\u00ed nebo \u00fatoky ospravedl\u0148uje jako z\u00e1sahy na \u201ez\u00e1kladny Hizball\u00e1hu\u201c. Ani Washington Post, New York Times, Guardian, ani liber\u00e1ln\u00ed \u010di konzervativn\u00ed koment\u00e1to\u0159i nevyj\u00e1d\u0159ili pobou\u0159en\u00ed nad Trumpov\u00fdmi hrozbami \u201ebombardovat \u00cdr\u00e1n zp\u011bt do doby kamenn\u00e9\u201c nebo vyhladit \u00edr\u00e1nskou civilizaci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1padu vl\u00e1dne \u201eEpsteinova t\u0159\u00edda\u201c \u2013 oligarchick\u00e1 elita bez mor\u00e1ln\u00edho kompasu. \u00cdr\u00e1nci a muslimov\u00e9 jsou vn\u00edm\u00e1ni jako \u201eAmalekiti\u201c (biblick\u00e9 nep\u0159\u00e1tele) a podlid\u00e9. Tento postoj podkop\u00e1v\u00e1 humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed a demokratickou legitimitu samotn\u00e9ho Z\u00e1padu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv a jeho ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm bodem jedn\u00e1n\u00ed je kontrola nad Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem. \u00cdr\u00e1n do\u010dasn\u011b uzav\u0159el tuto strategickou vodn\u00ed cestu a nyn\u00ed po\u017eaduje spole\u010dnou spr\u00e1vu nebo dohody o poplatc\u00edch, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b spole\u010dn\u011b s Om\u00e1nem. To nebyl p\u016fvodn\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd z\u00e1m\u011br, ale p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd d\u016fsledek \u00fatoku USA. Kontrola nad pr\u016flivem by \u00cdr\u00e1n v\u00fdrazn\u011b pos\u00edlila, zat\u00edmco by se USA jevil jako oslaben\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Uzav\u0159en\u00ed ropovodu v\u00e1\u017en\u011b br\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159eprav\u011b ropy, LNG a hnojiv a hroz\u00ed spu\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm glob\u00e1ln\u00ed recese. Zem\u011b jako Indie ji\u017e poci\u0165uj\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky. Marandi to vn\u00edm\u00e1 jako ztr\u00e1tu moci pro USA: st\u00e1ty glob\u00e1ln\u00edho Jihu by nyn\u00ed mohly jednat asertivn\u011bji.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Budouc\u00ed vyhl\u00eddky: jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, nebo nov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka?<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Marandi je pesimistick\u00fd ohledn\u011b dosa\u017een\u00ed komplexn\u00ed dohody v pl\u00e1novan\u00fdch dvou t\u00fddnech. Je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee se vy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed jednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed ot\u00e1zky a lh\u016fta se prodlou\u017e\u00ed. Deset kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch bod\u016f \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 dohody \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed uranu, raketov\u00e9ho programu a region\u00e1ln\u00edch vztah\u016f \u2013 je pro arogantn\u00ed imp\u00e9rium obt\u00ed\u017en\u011b akceptovateln\u00fdch.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Mo\u017en\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed izraelsk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f na Libanon a \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 odvety.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">\u00da\u010dast st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu (nap\u0159. SAE) je mo\u017en\u00e1, ale ty jsou vojensky bezmocn\u00e9. Jejich kritick\u00e1 infrastruktura je odkryt\u00e1 na pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed a v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b konfliktu by byla okam\u017eit\u011b ohro\u017eena.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159echod k \u010dist\u011b \u00edr\u00e1nsko-izraelsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, do kter\u00e9 USA z\u016fstaly nep\u0159\u00edmo zapojeny (tankov\u00e1n\u00ed, pr\u016fzkum).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Diktatury v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu ohrozily svou pozici podporou USA. \u00cdr\u00e1n bude b\u011bhem tranzitu p\u0159es Hormuz up\u0159ednost\u0148ovat sp\u0159\u00e1telen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty (\u010c\u00ednu, Rusko) a diskriminovat sv\u00e9 odp\u016frce.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Region\u00e1ln\u00ed aliance a dlouhodob\u00e9 d\u016fsledky<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">S\u00edla \u00cdr\u00e1nu spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v partnerstv\u00ed s Ir\u00e1kem, Jemenem a Hizball\u00e1hem, kter\u00e9 jednaj\u00ed autonomn\u011b. Tato spojenectv\u00ed v\u00e1lku komplikuj\u00ed. Z dlouhodob\u00e9ho hlediska by se hranice mohly zm\u011bnit, pokud budou st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu pokra\u010dovat v konfronta\u010dn\u00ed politice.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Marandi uzav\u00edr\u00e1 historickou reflex\u00ed: Konfliktu se dalo p\u0159edej\u00edt, kdyby USA naslouchaly hlas\u016fm, jako byly ty od Flynta a Hillary Leverettov\u00fdch (autorek knihy \u201eGoing to Tehran\u201c). M\u00edsto toho sionistick\u00fd vliv zabr\u00e1nil m\u00edru. \u00cdr\u00e1n dokonce po 11. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed nab\u00eddl spolupr\u00e1ci, ale byl zklam\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Rozhovor zobrazuje sebev\u011bdom\u00fd \u00cdr\u00e1n, kter\u00fd z konfliktu vych\u00e1z\u00ed pos\u00edlen\u00fd vojensky, strategicky i symbolicky. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 zd\u016fraz\u0148uje nestabilitu zp\u016fsobenou izraelsk\u00fdmi provokacemi a nep\u0159edv\u00eddatelnost\u00ed USA. Zda se p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed udr\u017e\u00ed, z\u00e1vis\u00ed do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry na schopnosti USA krotit Izrael \u2013 o \u010dem\u017e Marandi siln\u011b pochybuje. Nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed dny a t\u00fddny rozhodnou o tom, zda jedn\u00e1n\u00ed pokro\u010d\u00ed, nebo zda se konflikt vyhrot\u00ed. Uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu a \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 \u00fatoky vys\u00edlaj\u00ed jasn\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly: \u00cdr\u00e1n je p\u0159ipraven br\u00e1nit svou suverenitu a pr\u00e1va regionu v\u0161emi nezbytn\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m rozhovoru s americk\u00fdm novin\u00e1\u0159em Glennem analyzuje \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd profesor Seyed Mohammad Marandi nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":104168,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,4199,1052,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104167"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=104167"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/104167\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/104168"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=104167"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=104167"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=104167"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}