{"id":103793,"date":"2026-04-05T00:19:11","date_gmt":"2026-04-04T22:19:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=103793"},"modified":"2026-04-04T12:44:02","modified_gmt":"2026-04-04T10:44:02","slug":"david-stockman-venujte-pozornost-skutecnym-penezum-proc-zlato-a-stribro-tak-prudce-roste","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/05\/david-stockman-venujte-pozornost-skutecnym-penezum-proc-zlato-a-stribro-tak-prudce-roste\/","title":{"rendered":"David Stockman: V\u011bnujte pozornost skute\u010dn\u00fdm pen\u011bz\u016fm \u2013 Pro\u010d zlato a st\u0159\u00edbro tak prudce roste"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Tohle asi nen\u00ed nic pro p\u0159\u00edznivce MAGA a fanou\u0161ky Fedu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo str\u00e1vil v\u00edce ne\u017e dva t\u00fddny sledov\u00e1n\u00edm finan\u010dn\u00edch \u010d\u00edsel, by to mohl vid\u011bt jinak. Pokud se v re\u00e1ln\u00e9m \u010dase d\u011bje n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed, existuj\u00ed siln\u00e9 n\u00e1znaky, \u017ee se pod povrchem schyluje k masivn\u00edmu ekonomick\u00e9mu zem\u011bt\u0159esen\u00ed:<\/span><\/p>\n

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  • Zlato ned\u00e1vno p\u0159ekro\u010dilo hranici\u00a0<\/span>5 000 dolar\u016f za unci<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, co\u017e je dvojn\u00e1sobek ceny 2 700 dolar\u016f v dob\u011b, kdy Trump slo\u017eil p\u0159\u00edsahu 20. ledna 2025.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Cena st\u0159\u00edbra ned\u00e1vno\u00a0<\/span>vzrostla na v\u00edce ne\u017e 100 dolar\u016f za unci<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, ne\u017e m\u00edrn\u011b klesla \u2013 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 na \u010dty\u0159n\u00e1sobek sv\u00e9 ceny 31 dolar\u016f p\u0159ed rokem.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Celkov\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh USA p\u0159ekro\u010dil\u00a0<\/span>39 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0a b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika t\u00fddn\u016f se bude pohybovat sm\u011brem k 40 bilion\u016fm dolar\u016f \u2013 oproti 36,4 bilion\u016fm dolar\u016f p\u0159ed rokem.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    To jsou siln\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly pro budouc\u00ed v\u00fdhled \u2013 ale zlat\u00fd v\u011bk prosperity nebo index S&P 500 na 10 000 bodech mezi n\u011b zjevn\u011b nepat\u0159\u00ed. Naopak: Vypad\u00e1 to velmi podobn\u011b jako pr\u016flom \u2013 drtiv\u00e9 vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed ned\u016fv\u011bry v orgii s utr\u00e1cen\u00edm, dluhy a tiskem pen\u011bz, kter\u00e9 z Washingtonu nad\u00e1le vych\u00e1zej\u00ed a dokonce se zrychluj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Jak ukazuje graf n\u00ed\u017ee, cena historick\u00fdch pen\u011bz \u2013 zlata \u2013 vstoupila do nov\u00e9, t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 parabolick\u00e9 f\u00e1ze. Trvalo dev\u011bt let, ne\u017e se cena zdvojn\u00e1sobila z 1 300 dolar\u016f za unci v roce 2016 na 2 700 dolar\u016f do ledna 2025 \u2013 za podm\u00ednek jednotn\u00e9 politiky dluh\u016f a tisku pen\u011bz obou stran.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Od za\u010d\u00e1tku \u201eTrump 2.0\u201c se v\u0161ak cena nejen znovu zdvojn\u00e1sobila, ale od srpna dokonce explodovala o 31 % \u2013 z 3 400 dolar\u016f na zhruba 4 440 dolar\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

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    Ned\u00e1vn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst hodnoty dal\u0161\u00ed \u201estar\u00e9 m\u011bny\u201c, st\u0159\u00edbra, byl je\u0161t\u011b pozoruhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Po letech, kdy se cena pohybovala kolem 20 dolar\u016f za unci nebo m\u00e9n\u011b, prudce vzrostla \u2013 o 65 % za pouh\u00fdch 30 dn\u00ed. Srovnateln\u00fd v\u00fdvoj se p\u0159edt\u00edm stal pouze jednou: mezi lety 1978 a 1980, kdy cena prudce vzrostla z 5 na 40 dolar\u016f za unci.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Jak je dob\u0159e zn\u00e1mo, inflace pot\u00e9 vzrostla na dvojcifern\u00e9 hodnoty, na\u010de\u017e n\u00e1sledovala \u201eVolckerova k\u00fara\u201c. V\u00fdnos desetilet\u00fdch americk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f vzrostl na 16 %, kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 \u00farokov\u00e1 sazba na v\u00edce ne\u017e 20 %, n\u00e1sledovaly dva roky siln\u00e9 stagfla\u010dn\u00ed turbulence.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Historie se samoz\u0159ejm\u011b \u010dasto r\u00fdmuje, ale jen z\u0159\u00eddka se opakuje p\u0159esn\u011b. A v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b ve Fedu nen\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd Volcker \u2013 a nikdo, kdo by se mu p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eil, nen\u00ed ani v dohledu.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Nebo\u0165 navzdory v\u0161em sv\u00fdm chyb\u00e1m Jimmy Carter v srpnu 1979 nev\u00e1hal jmenovat siln\u00e9ho a finan\u010dn\u011b stabiln\u00edho p\u0159edsedu Fedu, kter\u00fd zase nev\u00e1hal zastavit tiska\u0159sk\u00e9 stroje.<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u010casto opom\u00edjen\u00fdm aspektem Volckerova \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9ho boje proti inflaci na konci 70. let byla stabilizace dolaru, kdy\u017e byla omezena tvorba pen\u011bz. Mezi koncem let 1979 a 1985 se hodnota dolaru v\u00e1\u017een\u00e1 obchodn\u00edm r\u016fstem v\u00edce ne\u017e zdvojn\u00e1sobila.<\/span><\/p>\n

    To sn\u00ed\u017eilo dovozn\u00ed n\u00e1klady a z\u00e1rove\u0148 vyvinulo tlak na sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed cen americk\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed. Jednoduch\u00fdm faktem tehdy, stejn\u011b jako nyn\u00ed, je, \u017ee kdy\u017e oslab\u00edte dolar \u2013 v ekonomice, kter\u00e1 ro\u010dn\u011b dov\u00e1\u017e\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed v hodnot\u011b 3,5 bilionu dolar\u016f \u2013 sm\u011bnn\u00fd kurz v\u00fdznamn\u011b ur\u010duje v\u00fdvoj cen zbo\u017e\u00ed a surovin.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Inflace se tak sn\u00ed\u017eila z v\u00edce ne\u017e 13 % v roce 1980 na p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 3 % ro\u010dn\u011b do poloviny roku 1983 \u2013 a to d\u00edky siln\u00e9mu o\u017eiven\u00ed dolaru.<\/span><\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n

    Jak je dob\u0159e zn\u00e1mo, Donald Trump sleduje jeden hlavn\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd c\u00edl: ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby a slab\u0161\u00ed dolar. Ten druh\u00fd nab\u00fdv\u00e1 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 posedl\u00fdch rys\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Pravdou je, \u017ee Trump nikdy doopravdy nepochopil ani nerespektoval voln\u00fd trh. Jeho z\u00e1kladn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup se sp\u00ed\u0161e podob\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edstupu v\u0161emocn\u00e9ho velitele ekonomick\u00fdch z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed \u2013 a to v kombinaci s konspira\u010dn\u00edm sm\u00fd\u0161len\u00edm, kter\u00e9 ne\u017e\u00e1douc\u00ed v\u00fdvoj, jako je siln\u00fd dolar, p\u0159ipisuje zahrani\u010dn\u00edm machinac\u00edm sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e sil\u00e1m nab\u00eddky a popt\u00e1vky.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Nen\u00ed proto divu, \u017ee se i kurz dolaru za posledn\u00edch dvan\u00e1ct m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f v\u00fdrazn\u011b vych\u00fdlil \u0161patn\u00fdm sm\u011brem.<\/span><\/p>\n

    V minulosti politiku slab\u0161\u00edho dolaru alespo\u0148 prosazoval siln\u00fd ministr financ\u00ed jako James Baker, kter\u00fd sice tak\u00e9 cht\u011bl ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, ale st\u00e1le respektoval odborn\u00edky a ekonomick\u00fd mainstream.<\/span><\/p>\n

    V\u00fdsledkem byla nakonec \u00faprava sm\u011bnn\u00e9ho kurzu dolaru na \u00farove\u0148 podobnou t\u00e9 p\u0159ed infla\u010dn\u00ed f\u00e1z\u00ed na konci 70. let.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Ale dnes se nejedn\u00e1 o kontrolovan\u00e9 \u00fapravy, ale o chaotick\u00fd \u00fatok na dolar \u2013 poh\u00e1n\u011bn\u00fd ekonomicky nekompetentn\u00edm veden\u00edm v B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

    To se uk\u00e1zalo obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b patrn\u00e9, kdy\u017e ministr financ\u00ed USA Scott Bessent ned\u00e1vno na\u0159\u00eddil tzv. \u201ekontrolu sazeb\u201c \u2013 vz\u00e1cn\u00e9 opat\u0159en\u00ed, v jeho\u017e r\u00e1mci byly banky dotazov\u00e1ny na sm\u011bnn\u00fd kurz USD\/JPY.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Takov\u00e9 akce obvykle signalizuj\u00ed hroz\u00edc\u00ed intervenci na devizov\u00fdch trz\u00edch \u2013 a varuj\u00ed p\u0159ed nep\u0159ipravenost\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Jin\u00fdmi slovy, Washington je zjevn\u011b p\u0159ipraven z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b oslabit sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed dolar, aby podpo\u0159il oslaben\u00fd jen \u2013 v nad\u011bji, \u017ee t\u00edm usnadn\u00ed prodej obrovsk\u00e9ho mno\u017estv\u00ed nov\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f k financov\u00e1n\u00ed rostouc\u00edho deficitu.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno: Americk\u00fd trh s dluhopisy \u010del\u00ed masivn\u00ed krizi, zat\u00edmco u moci je skupina ekonomick\u00fdch \u201ekovboj\u016f\u201c, kte\u0159\u00ed by se mohli uch\u00fdlit ke st\u00e1le extr\u00e9mn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm opat\u0159en\u00edm, aby se vyhnuli d\u016fsledk\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Pl\u00e1novan\u00e1 m\u011bnov\u00e1 intervence ve prosp\u011bch jenu ukazuje, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e1 politika se kone\u010dn\u011b vymkne kontrole.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Pokud existuje jedna rozvinut\u00e1 ekonomika, kter\u00e1 se vyzna\u010duje extr\u00e9mn\u00edm zadlu\u017een\u00edm a nadm\u011brn\u00fdm tiskem pen\u011bz, je to Japonsko. P\u0159esto se zd\u00e1, \u017ee americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s t\u00edm, \u017ee Japonsko bude i nad\u00e1le skupovat americk\u00fd dluh.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Pozn\u00e1mka editora:<\/span><\/strong>
    \nPohyby, jako je cena zlata p\u0159esahuj\u00edc\u00ed 5 000 dolar\u016f a trojcifern\u00e9 ceny st\u0159\u00edbra, nejsou \u201etr\u017en\u00edm \u0161umem\u201c, ale jasn\u00fdm projevem ned\u016fv\u011bry v syst\u00e9m dluh\u016f a tisku pen\u011bz \u2013 a varovn\u00fdm sign\u00e1lem, \u017ee politi\u010dt\u00ed \u010dinitel\u00e9 by mohli reagovat je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed devalvac\u00ed m\u011bny.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Pokud chcete v\u011bd\u011bt, jak se p\u0159ipravit na mo\u017en\u00fd kolaps finan\u010dn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu, na\u0161e speci\u00e1ln\u00ed zpr\u00e1va nab\u00edz\u00ed konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed strategie pro p\u0159\u00edpad, \u017ee dolar ztrat\u00ed sv\u016fj status sv\u011btov\u00e9 rezervn\u00ed m\u011bny nebo p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 kontroly kapit\u00e1lu.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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    Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

     <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Tohle asi nen\u00ed nic pro p\u0159\u00edznivce MAGA a fanou\u0161ky Fedu. Ale ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo str\u00e1vil v\u00edce…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":98503,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,45,6928,693],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103793"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=103793"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103793\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/98503"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=103793"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=103793"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=103793"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}