{"id":103754,"date":"2026-04-04T05:56:09","date_gmt":"2026-04-04T03:56:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=103754"},"modified":"2026-04-04T05:56:09","modified_gmt":"2026-04-04T03:56:09","slug":"mlha-valky-probihaji-nebo-budou-probihat-jednani-usa-s-iranem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/04\/mlha-valky-probihaji-nebo-budou-probihat-jednani-usa-s-iranem\/","title":{"rendered":"Mlha v\u00e1lky: Prob\u00edhaj\u00ed nebo budou prob\u00edhat jedn\u00e1n\u00ed USA s \u00cdr\u00e1nem?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Kr\u00e1tk\u00e1 odpov\u011b\u010f zn\u00ed \u201ene\u201c. Trump si vym\u00fd\u0161lel, kdy\u017e prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee ji\u017e vede jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s \u201ed\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdmi\u201c \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi p\u0159edstaviteli.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201eP\u0159\u00edb\u011bh o jedn\u00e1n\u00edch\u201c USA m\u00e1 svou historii. V d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch kolech \u201ejedn\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdch na konflikt na Ukrajin\u011b Trump pravideln\u011b nazna\u010doval, \u017ee politick\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s Ruskem prob\u00edhaj\u00ed, zat\u00edmco ve skute\u010dnosti se Witkoff a Kushner pouze \u00fa\u010dastnili s\u00e9rie nekone\u010dn\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f s Evropany o zaveden\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed a domn\u011bl\u00e9 \u201em\u00edrov\u00e9\u201c roli pod veden\u00edm Evropan\u016f, kterou Evropan\u00e9 po\u017eadovali.<\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti tyto \u201em\u00edrov\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny\u201c nebyly nikdy sd\u00edleny ani p\u0159edlo\u017eeny rusk\u00e9mu ministru zahrani\u010d\u00ed Sergeji Lavrovovi.<\/p>\n

Dlouhodob\u00e9 \u201ep\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u201c pak B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm vn\u00edmal jako obchvatnou strategii k pokusu o vy\u0159e\u0161en\u00ed zako\u0159en\u011bn\u00fdch ot\u00e1zek bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektury mezi NATO a sf\u00e9rou bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1jm\u016f Ruska. Rusko jednodu\u0161e \u0159eklo \u201ene\u201c Trumpovu pokusu \u201eodsunout \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektury na pozd\u011bji\u201c.<\/p>\n

Stejn\u00fd vzorec p\u0159etv\u00e1\u0159ky byl patrn\u00fd i p\u0159i jedn\u00e1n\u00edch o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed v Gaze: Byla navrhov\u00e1na p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, ani\u017e by byly up\u0159esn\u011bny jak\u00e9koli podrobnosti o tom, co by mohlo n\u00e1sledovat ve druh\u00e9 f\u00e1zi p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Minul\u00fd v\u00edkend Witkoff a Kushner sepsali sv\u016fj seznam p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed pro dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed \u2013 tentokr\u00e1t v \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 s dal\u0161\u00edmi \u201eprobl\u00e9my\u201c, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed b\u00fdt odsunuty k pozd\u011bj\u0161\u00ed diskusi. Stejn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh. Stejn\u00e1 konfabulace.\u00a0Patn\u00e1ctibodov\u00fd m\u00edrov\u00fd pl\u00e1n<\/a>, vypracovan\u00fd Witkoffem a Kushnerem, byl p\u0159edlo\u017een zprost\u0159edkovatel\u016fm \u2013 p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e jeho po\u017eadavky Trump oslavoval jako \u201evelmi dobr\u00e9 a produktivn\u00ed rozhovory o \u00fapln\u00e9m a tot\u00e1ln\u00edm ukon\u010den\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed<\/i>\u201d \u2013 a s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, kter\u00fd \u201ezoufale tou\u017e\u00ed po dohod\u011b<\/i>\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n, k Trumpov\u011b nelibosti,\u00a0\u0159ekl<\/a>\u00a0\u201ev \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b<\/i>\u201c na tento n\u00e1vrh: Ebrahim Zolfaghari, mluv\u010d\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy, \u0159ekl: \u201eNa\u0161e prvn\u00ed i posledn\u00ed slovo je od prvn\u00edho dne stejn\u00e9 a tak to i z\u016fstane<\/i>\u201c.<\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n v tuto chv\u00edli nem\u00e1 z\u00e1jem o kompromis, proto\u017ee nedos\u00e1hl sv\u00e9\u00a0(odv\u00e1\u017en\u00e9) strategick\u00e9 ambice<\/a>\u00a0zvr\u00e1tit dlouholetou vojenskou a finan\u010dn\u00ed dominanci USA a Izraele v oblasti Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu \u2013 a p\u0159etvo\u0159it ji v \u0161irokou \u00edr\u00e1nskou ekonomickou a vojenskou sf\u00e9ru z\u00e1jm\u016f (\u201ehemisf\u00e9ru\u201c, chcete-li).<\/p>\n

V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b m\u00e1 \u00cdr\u00e1n v tomto konfliktu eskaluj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159evahu \u2013 d\u00edky desetilet\u00edm p\u0159\u00edprav a pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1n ji\u017e prok\u00e1zal, \u017ee ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 dvacet procent sv\u011btov\u00e9 ropy vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00e9 p\u0159es Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv. M\u00e1 tedy n\u00e1stroje (regulace pr\u016fjezdu plavidel touto vodn\u00ed cestou) k \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed objemu vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00e9 ropy a, co je nem\u00e9n\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, schopnost ovliv\u0148ovat jej\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u011b citliv\u00e9 ceny (co\u017e kdysi b\u00fdvalo v\u00fdsadou pouze USA).<\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 pod kontrolou nejen jednu z hlavn\u00edch slo\u017eek glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiky (ropu), ale fakticky i velkou \u010d\u00e1st sv\u011btov\u00fdch z\u00e1sobovac\u00edch tras a produkce komodit: helium, hnojiva, potraviny a kyselina s\u00edrov\u00e1 jsou v\u0161echny do ur\u010dit\u00e9 m\u00edry z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na Hormuzu a jeho uzav\u0159en\u00ed na v\u00edce ne\u017e t\u0159i t\u00fddny by zp\u016fsobilo paralyzuj\u00edc\u00ed nedostatek, kter\u00fd by se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b jen t\u011b\u017eko rychle vy\u0159e\u0161il.<\/p>\n

Manipulace s ekonomickou p\u00e1kou ropy, spolu s \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm trv\u00e1n\u00edm na tom, aby plavidla proplouvaj\u00edc\u00ed pr\u016flivem platila tu\u010dn\u00e9 poplatky a dok\u00e1zala, \u017ee jejich n\u00e1klad byl zakoupen v juanech, zasahuje tak\u00e9 do j\u00e1dra Trumpovy politick\u00e9 zranitelnosti \u2013 americk\u00e9 ekonomiky, a to v obdob\u00ed p\u0159ed americk\u00fdmi volbami do Kongresu.<\/p>\n

Jedna region\u00e1ln\u00ed zpr\u00e1va varuje:<\/p>\n

\u201e\u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 trval\u00fd pl\u00e1n na z\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed kontroln\u00edch stanovi\u0161\u0165 v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu, aby kompenzoval ztr\u00e1ty. Pokud by se \u00fatoky, kter\u00fdmi Trump vyhro\u017euje, uskute\u010dnily, \u00cdr\u00e1n by zablokoval Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, uzav\u0159el trasy v Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i a jemensk\u00e1 fronta by zas\u00e1hla, aby uzav\u0159ela Bab al-Mandeb. \u00cdr\u00e1n je tak\u00e9 p\u0159ipraven znovu obsadit bahrajnsk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstavy, pokud to situace bude vy\u017eadovat\u201c.<\/em><\/p>\n

Trump kdysi \u0159ekl, \u017ee ztr\u00e1ta hegemonie dolaru by pro Ameriku byla hor\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e prohra ve velk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce. P\u0159esn\u011b o to v\u0161ak jde v t\u00e9to \u201eh\u0159e na nervy\u201c, kterou Trump s \u00cdr\u00e1nem zah\u00e1jil, ale z n\u00ed\u017e nyn\u00ed nev\u00ed, jak vystoupit, ani\u017e by utrp\u011bl poni\u017euj\u00edc\u00ed por\u00e1\u017eku.<\/p>\n

\u201eWashington je v \u0161oku<\/i>\u201c,\u00a0napsala<\/a>\u00a0Anna Barsky, hlavn\u00ed politick\u00e1 korespondentka (hebrejsky psan\u00e9ho) den\u00edku Ma\u2019ariv, v reakci na Wall Street Journal, kter\u00fd\u00a0p\u0159edstavil<\/a>\u00a0seznam protipo\u017eadavk\u016f, kter\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed z\u00e1stupci prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm zprost\u0159edkovatel\u016f p\u0159edali Trumpovu t\u00fdmu jako \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00e9 podm\u00ednky pro urovn\u00e1n\u00ed:<\/p>\n

\u201e\u00da\u0159edn\u00edci B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu popsali tyto po\u017eadavky jako \u201aseznam p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00fd nem\u00e1 nic spole\u010dn\u00e9ho s realitou na m\u00edst\u011b\u2018\u201c.<\/em><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n ji\u017e dr\u017e\u00ed tyto ekonomick\u00e9 trumfy v rukou a je p\u0159ipraven reagovat na eskalaci bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed ze strany Izraele a USA vlastn\u00edmi odvetn\u00fdmi raketov\u00fdmi \u00fadery na infrastrukturu st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu,\u00a0pari passu<\/i>, se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt z podstaty v\u011bci nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by Trump dos\u00e1hl jak\u00e9hokoli p\u0159ijateln\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodiska z v\u00e1lky \u2013 a to nejen proto, \u017ee v t\u00e9to v\u011bci m\u00e1 \u201eIzrael hlas\u201c, a Izrael nyn\u00ed p\u0159e\u0161el od nad\u011bje na \u201azm\u011bnu re\u017eimu\u2018 k nal\u00e9h\u00e1n\u00ed, aby USA obsadily ostrov Kharg v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu.<\/p>\n

Izrael\u00a0uznal<\/a>, \u017ee jeho vytou\u017een\u00fd c\u00edl zm\u011bny re\u017eimu v \u00cdr\u00e1nu selhal, p\u00ed\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edn\u00ed izrael\u0161t\u00ed koment\u00e1to\u0159i (Ronen Bergman a Anna Barsky). Proto p\u0159ehodnocuje sv\u00e9 c\u00edle \u2013 \u201eJeruzal\u00e9m [nyn\u00ed] v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee cesta k [izraelsk\u00e9mu] v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed vede p\u0159es kontrolu nad ostrovem Kharg<\/i>\u201c, p\u00ed\u0161e Barsky.<\/p>\n

\u201ePodle t\u00e9to \u00favahy, pokud [americko-izraelsk\u00e1] kampa\u0148 nepovede ke svr\u017een\u00ed re\u017eimu, je zapot\u0159eb\u00ed mnohem konkr\u00e9tn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed krok \u2013 takov\u00fd, kter\u00fd zbav\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n jak schopnosti vyv\u00e1\u017eet ropu v b\u011b\u017en\u00e9m m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku, tak schopnosti \u00fa\u010dinn\u011b ohro\u017eovat n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dopravu\u201c.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201eTato diskuse vede k dal\u0161\u00edmu z\u00e1v\u011bru: Bez fyzick\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edtomnosti na kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b je velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 zabr\u00e1nit \u00cdr\u00e1nu v opakovan\u00e9m n\u00e1vratu ke stejn\u00e9mu vzoru \u2026 Aby se zm\u011bnila realita, je t\u0159eba vytvo\u0159it skute\u010dnou kontrolu. V tomto kontextu je Kharg prezentov\u00e1n jako c\u00edl, jeho\u017e p\u0159evzet\u00ed by mohlo \u00cdr\u00e1nu sou\u010dasn\u011b zbavit jak strategick\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f, tak prostoru pro jedn\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

Barsky v\u0161ak poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1: \u201eOdhaduje se v\u0161ak, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u00e1 obt\u00ed\u017e nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v opera\u010dn\u00ed str\u00e1nce \u2026 Je ve Washingtonu<\/i>\u201c:<\/p>\n

\u201eOt\u00e1zkou nen\u00ed, zda USA dok\u00e1\u017eou dos\u00e1hnout Khargu a p\u0159evz\u00edt kontrolu nad ostrovem. Ot\u00e1zkou je, zda je Trump ochoten tam dlouhodob\u011b udr\u017eovat vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly s mo\u017enost\u00ed ztr\u00e1t na \u017eivotech mezi americk\u00fdmi voj\u00e1ky\u201c.<\/em><\/p>\n

B\u00fdval\u00fd d\u016fstojn\u00edk CIA Larry Johnson\u00a0p\u00ed\u0161e<\/a>, \u017ee intervence USA v Hormuzu je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b na spadnut\u00ed a byla by katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed (tj. vedla by k mnoha americk\u00fdm ob\u011btem):<\/p>\n

\u201ePokud Donald Trump nezm\u011bn\u00ed n\u00e1zor, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b uvid\u00edme pokus USA o obsazen\u00ed ostrov\u016f Kharg i Qeshm. Pokud jste \u010detli m\u016fj p\u0159edchoz\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nek (zde), zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Trump k obsazen\u00ed ostrov\u016f nasad\u00ed jak Delta Force, tak Seal Team 6, spolu se dv\u011bma prapory Ranger\u016f a 1. brig\u00e1dn\u00edm bojov\u00fdm t\u00fdmem 82. v\u00fdsadkov\u00e9 divize.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201e31. vojensk\u00e1 expedi\u010dn\u00ed jednotka (MEU) bude v p\u00e1tek na m\u00edst\u011b v Arabsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i \u2026 [Nyn\u00ed] jsem se dozv\u011bd\u011bl, \u017ee \u2026 Trump zru\u0161il svou \u00fa\u010dast na CPAC tento v\u00edkend a \u017ee se v p\u00e1tek ve\u010der nez\u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed benefi\u010dn\u00ed akce v Mar-a-Lago \u2026\u201c.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201eVypad\u00e1 to, \u017ee [Trump] bude od p\u00e1tku zanepr\u00e1zdn\u011bn n\u011b\u010d\u00edm jin\u00fdm\u201c, spekuluje Larry Johnson.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201eAle co pak? Tyto jednotky budou snadn\u00fdm ter\u010dem a budou \u010delit v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9mu riziku, \u017ee budou od\u0159\u00edznuty od z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed. Pokud \u00cdr\u00e1n vypust\u00ed z\u00e1plavu min, jedinou mo\u017enost\u00ed bude z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed ze vzduchu, co\u017e pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b znamen\u00e1, \u017ee tato letadla budou \u010delit drtiv\u00e9 palb\u011b z \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch pob\u0159e\u017en\u00edch bateri\u00ed a syst\u00e9m\u016f protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany. M\u00edsto otev\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu zp\u016fsob\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 akce USA, \u017ee bude prakticky nemo\u017en\u00e9, aby jak\u00e1koli lo\u010f vplula do Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu nebo z n\u011bj vyplula. \u00dapln\u00e9 uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce zhor\u0161\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 \u0161kody na sv\u011btov\u00e9 ekonomice\u201c.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd admir\u00e1l Ali Akbar Ahmadian\u00a0reagoval<\/a>\u00a0na hrozbu americk\u00e9ho \u201evstupu pozemn\u00edch jednotek<\/i>\u201c do Hormuzu:<\/p>\n

\u201eNa [americkou invazi] \u010dek\u00e1me u\u017e roky. Nyn\u00ed m\u00e1me pro americk\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky jen jednu zpr\u00e1vu: Poj\u010fte bl\u00ed\u017e<\/i>\u201c.<\/p>\n

\u201ePoj\u010f se pod\u00edvat do m\u00e9 pavu\u010diny<\/i>,\u201c \u0159ekl pavouk mou\u0161e.<\/p>\n

Alastair\u00a0<\/span><\/a>Crooke, b<\/span>\u00fdval\u00fd britsk\u00fd diplomat, zakladatel a \u0159editel F\u00f3ra pro konflikty se s\u00eddlem v Bejr\u00fatu.<\/span><\/div>\n
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Kr\u00e1tk\u00e1 odpov\u011b\u010f zn\u00ed \u201ene\u201c. Trump si vym\u00fd\u0161lel, kdy\u017e prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee ji\u017e vede jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s \u201ed\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdmi\u201c…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":103755,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,452,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103754"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=103754"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103754\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/103755"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=103754"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=103754"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=103754"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}