{"id":103708,"date":"2026-04-04T00:12:18","date_gmt":"2026-04-03T22:12:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=103708"},"modified":"2026-04-03T13:33:39","modified_gmt":"2026-04-03T11:33:39","slug":"energeticky-sok-a-prerozdelovani-trhu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/04\/energeticky-sok-a-prerozdelovani-trhu\/","title":{"rendered":"Energetick\u00fd \u0161ok a p\u0159erozd\u011blov\u00e1n\u00ed trhu?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Irina Gaida, p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161ej\u00edc\u00ed na Fakult\u011b geografie a geoinforma\u010dn\u00edch technologi\u00ed N\u00e1rodn\u00ed v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9 univerzity ekonomie, rozeb\u00edr\u00e1 mo\u017en\u00e9 d\u016fsledky r\u016fzn\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00edho konfliktu pro sv\u011bt.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv u\u017e nen\u00ed jen \u00fazk\u00fdm hrdlem v glob\u00e1ln\u00ed logistice; je to d\u00fdka do srdce glob\u00e1ln\u00edch energetick\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b cel\u00e9 ekonomiky. Kdysi 150 tanker\u016f, kter\u00e9 j\u00edm denn\u011b proplouvaly, je nyn\u00ed obvykle nahrazeno pouze jednou nebo dv\u011bma des\u00edtkami lod\u00ed denn\u011b \u2013 za p\u0159emr\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 ceny. Ofici\u00e1ln\u011b je mo\u0159e otev\u0159en\u00e9, ale ve skute\u010dnosti je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u00fapln\u011b zablokovan\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

V reakci na \u00fatoky USA a Izraele \u00cdr\u00e1n systematicky pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 asymetrickou v\u00e1lku: \u00fatoky na infrastrukturu v zem\u00edch Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu a \u201etankerovou v\u00e1lku\u201c p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00edc\u00ed 80. l\u00e9ta, a\u017e na to, \u017ee dnes se pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed drony a kybernetick\u00e9 \u00fatoky. To v\u0161e se d\u011bje v situaci, kdy obj\u00ed\u017e\u010fky umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed p\u0159esm\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed pouze asi 25 procent ropy a m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 10 procent plynu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Situace je extr\u00e9mn\u011b obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e1 pro trh s ropou, kter\u00fd v posledn\u00edch deseti letech za\u017eil mnoho ot\u0159es\u016f. Naru\u0161en\u00ed tok\u016f ropy vede k v\u00fdpadku produkce p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 16 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b. Dodate\u010dn\u00e1 produkce v jin\u00fdch regionech, strategick\u00e9 a obchodn\u00ed rezervy dr\u017een\u00e9 r\u016fzn\u00fdmi zem\u011bmi a \u201eplovouc\u00ed rezervy\u201c nahromad\u011bn\u00e9 v tankerech do konce roku 2025 nemohou tento deficit kompenzovat, pokud by konflikt trval d\u00e9le ne\u017e 60 a\u017e 100 dn\u00ed. \u010c\u00edna a USA, kter\u00e9 disponuj\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi rezervami, up\u0159ednostn\u00ed ochranu sv\u00fdch spot\u0159ebitel\u016f a zachov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00fdch strategick\u00fdch rezerv. Nav\u00edc nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, kde le\u017e\u00ed technick\u00fd limit pro vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed rezerv, proto\u017ee nikdy p\u0159edt\u00edm nebylo nutn\u00e9 kompenzovat v\u00edce ne\u017e 1 a\u017e 2 miliony barel\u016f denn\u011b. Celkov\u011b by mohl vzniknout deficit dod\u00e1vek ve v\u00fd\u0161i 1 a\u017e 5 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b. D\u016fsledky budou r\u016fst cen, klesaj\u00edc\u00ed popt\u00e1vka a za\u010d\u00e1tek \u201em\u00edrn\u00e9\u201c, ale p\u0159esto skute\u010dn\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed recese.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ceny ropy dosud nedos\u00e1hly sv\u00fdch maxim z roku 2022, co\u017e pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bru trhu v rychl\u00e9 a bezbolestn\u00e9 vy\u0159e\u0161en\u00ed konfliktu. Pokud by k tomu v\u0161ak nedo\u0161lo, mohlo by doj\u00edt k bezprost\u0159edn\u00edmu n\u00e1r\u016fstu ceny na 150\u2013200 dolar\u016f za barel.<\/span><\/p>\n

Situace je je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed u plynu, zejm\u00e9na LNG, proto\u017ee krom\u011b blok\u00e1d byla po\u0161kozena i v\u00fdrobn\u00ed infrastruktura. Z\u00e1vod v Kataru (nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na v\u00fdrobu LNG na sv\u011bt\u011b) byl uzav\u0159en kv\u016fli zni\u010den\u00ed dvou ze 14 v\u00fdrobn\u00edch linek. Katar ji\u017e uplatnil vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed moc u kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch kontrakt\u016f s It\u00e1li\u00ed, Belgi\u00ed, Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreou a \u010c\u00ednou. Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty prakticky zastavily v\u00fdvoz LNG kv\u016fli nemo\u017enosti tranzitu p\u0159es pr\u016fliv. Izrael pozastavil produkci na sv\u00fdch pol\u00edch, co\u017e ji\u017e vedlo k zastaven\u00ed v\u00fdroby dus\u00edkat\u00fdch hnojiv v Egypt\u011b. P\u0159epravn\u00ed sazby pro tankery na LNG se zv\u00fd\u0161ily p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 600 procent, zat\u00edmco pojistn\u00e9 se zv\u00fd\u0161ilo z 0,25 na 3 procenta hodnoty plavidla.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdo profituje z utrpen\u00ed druh\u00fdch?<\/span><\/h3>\n

Zaprv\u00e9, USA a dal\u0161\u00ed producenti v Americe: Jako nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed producenti ropy a plynu mimo z\u00f3nu p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho konfliktu z\u00edsk\u00e1vaj\u00ed obrovskou geopolitickou a ekonomickou v\u00fdhodu. Nav\u00edc USA a Kanada, jako\u017eto nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvozci LNG s nov\u00fdmi kapacitami, kter\u00e9 budou spu\u0161t\u011bny v roce 2026, profituj\u00ed zejm\u00e9na z uzav\u0159en\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed v Kataru. Pro jejich trhy to v\u0161ak znamen\u00e1 prudk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst cen benzinu, hnojiv a surovin, co\u017e zat\u011b\u017euje jak pr\u016fmysl, tak spot\u0159ebitele. Ropn\u00fd a plyn\u00e1rensk\u00fd sektor p\u0159edstavuje jen malou \u010d\u00e1st ekonomik t\u011bchto zem\u00ed, zat\u00edmco sektory, kter\u00e9 budou trp\u011bt rostouc\u00edmi cenami energi\u00ed, jsou zna\u010dn\u00e9. To po\u0161kozuje rating vl\u00e1dy, zejm\u00e9na ve volebn\u00edm roce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Paradoxn\u011b se domn\u00edv\u00e1m, \u017ee mezi v\u00edt\u011bzi by mohla b\u00fdt i \u010c\u00edna. Disponuje nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi strategick\u00fdmi rezervami na sv\u011bt\u011b a relativn\u011b diverzifikovan\u00fdm dovozn\u00edm portfoliem, v\u010detn\u011b velk\u00fdch n\u00e1kup\u016f ropovod\u016f z Ruska a St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie. Zat\u00edmco zem\u011b chud\u00e9 na zdroje hledaj\u00ed zdroje energie a sna\u017e\u00ed se zv\u00fd\u0161it svou energetickou nez\u00e1vislost, \u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 co nab\u00eddnout: M\u016f\u017ee selektivn\u011b sd\u00edlet sv\u00e9 rezervy a tak\u00e9 poskytovat obnoviteln\u00e9 zdroje energie, \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed pro skladov\u00e1n\u00ed energie, elektromobily a dal\u0161\u00ed autonomn\u00ed energetick\u00e1 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. \u010c\u00edna je v\u0161ak nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm spot\u0159ebitelem \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy a obecn\u011bji dod\u00e1vek energie z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu. Tato z\u00e1vislost by se mohla sn\u00ed\u017eit, pokud se konflikt d\u00e1le vyhrot\u00ed. \u010c\u00edna je tak\u00e9 z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na h\u00e9liu a s\u00ed\u0159e z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu. To pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b motivuje Peking k hled\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00fdch partnerstv\u00ed a prohlouben\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce s Ruskem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud jde o pora\u017een\u00e9, ty lze rozd\u011blit do t\u0159\u00ed skupin. EU, ji\u017e tak oslaben\u00e1 vysok\u00fdmi cenami energi\u00ed v d\u016fsledku odm\u00edtnut\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ce s Ruskem, nyn\u00ed ztr\u00e1c\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed zdroje ropy a plynu (stejn\u011b jako hnojiv a dal\u0161\u00edch surovin). Afrika a jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie se spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na dovoz z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, ale maj\u00ed omezen\u00e9 geologick\u00e9 z\u00e1soby a rafin\u00e9rsk\u00e9 kapacity, m\u00e1lo strategick\u00fdch a obchodn\u00edch rezerv a t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed zdroje k zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed energetick\u00e9 sob\u011bsta\u010dnosti. Ceny benzinu ji\u017e dramaticky vzrostly: o 50 procent ve Vietnamu a o 40 procent v Nig\u00e9rii. Samotn\u00e9 st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu budou trp\u011bt nejen ztr\u00e1tou p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f z ropy a plynu, ale tak\u00e9 poklesem hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 aktivity, cestovn\u00edho ruchu a region\u00e1ln\u00edho obchodu. Zranitelnost jejich ekonomik v\u016f\u010di naru\u0161en\u00ed logistiky a v\u00fdroby energie (a\u017e po dod\u00e1vky potravin a vody) je st\u00e1le z\u0159eteln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co n\u00e1s \u010dek\u00e1 a co to znamen\u00e1 pro Rusko?<\/span><\/h3>\n

Pokud krize skon\u010d\u00ed do jednoho a\u017e dvou m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f s minim\u00e1ln\u00edm po\u0161kozen\u00edm v\u00fdrobn\u00ed infrastruktury, lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat n\u00e1vrat k p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm podm\u00ednk\u00e1m. Ho\u0159k\u00e1 pachu\u0165 v\u0161ak z\u016fstane a t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 na v\u0161ech trz\u00edch budou p\u0159ijata opat\u0159en\u00ed k diverzifikaci logistiky a zdroj\u016f dod\u00e1vek a tak\u00e9 k zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed energetick\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti a sob\u011bsta\u010dnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud krize bude p\u0159etrv\u00e1vat, sv\u011bt bude \u010delit podstatn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdzv\u00e1m. V\u00fdrazn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst cen a \u00fazk\u00e1 m\u00edsta v dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch jsou pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9 u t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161ech surovin, nejen u energi\u00ed, ale i u hnojiv, potravin, petrochemik\u00e1li\u00ed, kov\u016f a textili\u00ed. To povede k recesi a poklesu hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 aktivity. Struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed deficit v ropn\u00e9m pr\u016fmyslu a mo\u017en\u00e1 i v plynu bude n\u011bjakou dobu p\u0159etrv\u00e1vat. V\u00e1\u017en\u00e1 recese by mohla v\u00e9st k poklesu popt\u00e1vky. Popt\u00e1vka klesne tak\u00e9 v d\u016fsledku zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9ho vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed autonomn\u00edch \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed (obnoviteln\u00e9 zdroje energie + skladov\u00e1n\u00ed, uhl\u00ed + elektromobily, jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny + elektromobily), proto\u017ee v\u0161echna tato \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed sni\u017euj\u00ed pot\u0159ebu nep\u0159etr\u017eit\u00e9 p\u0159epravy nosi\u010d\u016f energie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kupuj\u00edc\u00ed budou podporovat urychlen\u00fd p\u0159echod na alternativn\u00ed trasy, aby se sn\u00ed\u017eila logistick\u00e1 rizika. Severov\u00fdchodn\u00ed trasa, Transsibi\u0159sk\u00e1 a Transkaspick\u00e1 trasa by mohly zaznamenat prudk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst rozvoje. To povede k obnoven\u00fdm investic\u00edm do energetick\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti a ochrany kritick\u00e9 infrastruktury. V d\u016fsledku toho porostou ceny energi\u00ed pro spot\u0159ebitele.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro Rusko to otev\u00edr\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost na trz\u00edch s ropou, plynem a uhl\u00edm, co\u017e funguje jako jak\u00e9si \u201epoji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed\u201c v energetick\u00e9m sektoru, stejn\u011b jako u kritick\u00fdch miner\u00e1l\u016f a hnojiv. Roste tak\u00e9 role Ruska jako relativn\u011b bezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho logistick\u00e9ho tranzitn\u00edho koridoru. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 Rusko \u010del\u00ed rostouc\u00edmu tlaku ohledn\u011b bezpe\u010dnosti sv\u00e9ho exportu na Z\u00e1pad. Rychl\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu produkce br\u00e1n\u00ed tak\u00e9 stav jeho surovinov\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny, kter\u00e1 obsahuje vysok\u00fd pod\u00edl obt\u00ed\u017en\u011b t\u011b\u017eiteln\u00fdch z\u00e1sob, a absence dom\u00e1c\u00ed tankerov\u00e9 flotily (p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm pro LNG).<\/span><\/p>\n

Abychom tyto p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti vyu\u017eili, je nutn\u00e9 vytvo\u0159it nezbytn\u00e9 infrastrukturn\u00ed, finan\u010dn\u00ed a politick\u00e9 podm\u00ednky. Je nutn\u00e9 urychlit rozvoj obchodn\u00ed logistiky pod\u00e9l Severn\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed cesty a V\u00fdchodn\u00edho koridoru, jako\u017e i transkontinent\u00e1ln\u00edch ropovod\u016f, \u017eelezni\u010dn\u00edch a silni\u010dn\u00edch spojen\u00ed. Jsou nutn\u00e9 investice do dal\u0161\u00edho pr\u016fzkumu a zkoum\u00e1n\u00ed nerostn\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny s ohledem na nov\u00e9 zdroje popt\u00e1vky, zejm\u00e9na po vz\u00e1cn\u00fdch zemin\u00e1ch a surovin\u00e1ch pro pota\u0161 a fosf\u00e1tov\u00e1 hnojiva. V dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu, po skon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu, je nezbytn\u00e9 vytvo\u0159en\u00ed transkontinent\u00e1ln\u00edho ji\u017en\u00edho koridoru na trhy v Indii a dal\u0161\u00edch zem\u00edch. Mus\u00edme roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it na\u0161i flotilu a servisn\u00ed infrastrukturu (tankov\u00e1n\u00ed, opravy, poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed) a budovat strategick\u00e9 vztahy se z\u00e1kazn\u00edky, kter\u00e9 n\u00e1m umo\u017en\u00ed nejen kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b zvy\u0161ovat ceny, ale tak\u00e9 dlouhodob\u011b zajistit nov\u00e9 dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Irina Gaida, p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161ej\u00edc\u00ed na Fakult\u011b geografie a geoinforma\u010dn\u00edch technologi\u00ed N\u00e1rodn\u00ed v\u00fdzkumn\u00e9 univerzity ekonomie, rozeb\u00edr\u00e1 mo\u017en\u00e9…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":103709,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,6382,371,310,276],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103708"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=103708"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103708\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/103709"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=103708"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=103708"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=103708"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}