{"id":103690,"date":"2026-04-03T00:40:04","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T22:40:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=103690"},"modified":"2026-04-02T17:24:41","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T15:24:41","slug":"andrew-korybko-ukrajinske-utoky-na-ruske-ropne-rafinerie-riskuji-zhorseni-globalni-energeticke-krize","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/04\/03\/andrew-korybko-ukrajinske-utoky-na-ruske-ropne-rafinerie-riskuji-zhorseni-globalni-energeticke-krize\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na rusk\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 rafinerie riskuj\u00ed zhor\u0161en\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00e9 krize"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Dal\u0161\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho exportu ropy by mohlo v\u00e9st k prudk\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu cen, kter\u00fd destabilizuje glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku a v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku oslab\u00ed i tu americkou, ale nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, zda Trump Zelensk\u00e9ho za to potrest\u00e1, nebo zda si cynicky p\u0159eje, aby tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 v r\u00e1mci glob\u00e1ln\u00edho resetu usnadnil.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ropnou rafinerii Slavn\u011bft-YANOS v rusk\u00e9 Jaroslavlsk\u00e9 oblasti, kter\u00e1 pat\u0159\u00ed mezi p\u011bt nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch a je schopna zpracovat 15 milion\u016f tun ropy ro\u010dn\u011b,\u00a0<\/span>\u00fadajn\u011b\u00a0<\/span><\/a>v sobotu brzy r\u00e1no zas\u00e1hly ukrajinsk\u00e9 drony. Toto opat\u0159en\u00ed n\u00e1sleduje\u00a0<\/span>po bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed ropn\u00e9 rafinerie a p\u0159\u00edstavu v Us\u0165-Luze minul\u00fd t\u00fdden\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, kter\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>vyvolalo spekulace\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, \u017ee ru\u0161t\u00ed producenti ropy by brzy mohli vyhl\u00e1sit vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed moc. Kr\u00e1tce pot\u00e9 Rusko\u00a0<\/span>ozn\u00e1milo\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, \u017ee na neur\u010ditou dobu zakazuje v\u00fdvoz benzinu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uprost\u0159ed v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 posloupnosti ud\u00e1lost\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>agentura Reuters\u00a0<\/span><\/a>vypo\u010d\u00edtala, \u017ee 40 % rusk\u00e9 exportn\u00ed kapacity ropy bylo zastaveno, co\u017e zahrnuje i d\u016fsledky d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch \u00fatok\u016f na dal\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00e9 rafinerie. P\u0159esto\u017ee Kreml tuto statistiku nepotvrdil, nem\u011blo by b\u00fdt pochyb o tom, \u017ee tyto pravideln\u00e9 \u00fatoky p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm do ur\u010dit\u00e9 m\u00edry sn\u00ed\u017eily jeho exportn\u00ed kapacitu. Z ofici\u00e1ln\u00edho pohledu USA je to znepokojiv\u00e9, proto\u017ee si p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed, \u017ee rusk\u00fd export zm\u00edrn\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetickou krizi\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Koneckonc\u016f, pr\u00e1v\u011b s t\u00edmto c\u00edlem ministr financ\u00ed Scott Bessent\u00a0<\/span>do\u010dasn\u011b zru\u0161il\u00a0<\/span><\/a>sankce USA na n\u00e1kup rusk\u00e9 ropy pro v\u0161echny, pot\u00e9 co\u00a0<\/span>tak nejprve u\u010dinil s indickou.\u00a0<\/span><\/a>Kombinace ukrajinsk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f na indick\u00e9 rafinerie v\u0161ak tyto pl\u00e1ny zna\u010dn\u011b zkomplikuje. V d\u016fsledku toho by se glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dod\u00e1vky mohly d\u00e1le sn\u00ed\u017eit, co\u017e by vedlo k dlouhodob\u00fdm cenov\u00fdm v\u00fdkyv\u016fm, kter\u00e9 by mohly zv\u00fd\u0161it ceny nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d zem\u011bmi, sn\u00ed\u017eit spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 v\u00fddaje po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b a t\u00edm nep\u0159\u00edmo oslabit americkou ekonomiku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jist\u011b,\u00a0<\/span>zde se argumentovalo\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, \u017ee USA by mohly cynicky cht\u00edt zhor\u0161it glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetickou krizi, proto\u017ee si vypo\u010d\u00edtaly, \u017ee by mohly zvl\u00e1dnout jej\u00ed syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 d\u016fsledky \u00fastupem\u00a0<\/span>do Ameriky\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, a to v\u0161e za sou\u010dasn\u00e9 destabilizace\u00a0<\/span>a\u00a0<\/span><\/a>n\u00e1sledn\u00e9ho rozd\u011blen\u00ed a vl\u00e1dy USA v Afro-Eurasii. I kdy\u017e je to mo\u017en\u00e9, Trump 2.0 tuto mo\u017enost v tuto chv\u00edli z\u0159ejm\u011b nepreferuje, jak nazna\u010duje jeho do\u010dasn\u00e9 zru\u0161en\u00ed sankc\u00ed na n\u00e1kup rusk\u00e9 ropy pro v\u0161echny, ale i tak by se mohly tomuto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i flexibiln\u011b p\u0159izp\u016fsobit, pokud by k n\u011bmu do\u0161lo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z t\u011bchto d\u016fvod\u016f on a jeho t\u00fdm mo\u017en\u00e1 p\u0159edem neschv\u00e1lili ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 \u00fatoky Ukrajiny na ruskou energetickou infrastrukturu, v takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by se jednalo o jednostrann\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed Zelensk\u00e9ho na \u00fakor d\u0159\u00edve popsan\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f USA. V takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by se mohl pokusit vyu\u017e\u00edt Trumpovy hyper-zam\u011b\u0159enosti na\u00a0<\/span>t\u0159et\u00ed v\u00e1lku v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu\u00a0<\/span><\/a>k tomu, aby i nad\u00e1le zat\u011b\u017eoval kremelskou pokladnu sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm jeho exportu energie a t\u00edm i rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f, kter\u00e9 z nich Kreml z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1, a to v\u0161e ve snaze donutit ho k \u00fastupk\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

USA sice podle\u00a0<\/span>ned\u00e1vn\u00e9ho rozhovoru ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed Sergeje Lavrova vyv\u00edjej\u00ed tlak na Rusko, \u201eaby ud\u011blalo v\u00edce \u00fastupk\u016f\u201c\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, ale z d\u016fvod\u016f, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e byly vysv\u011btleny, to nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt jeden z prost\u0159edk\u016f, kter\u00e9 m\u011bly na mysli. Je tedy mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee Trump Zelensk\u00e9ho potrest\u00e1, a dokonce ho dokonce ztrest\u00e1, pokud nep\u0159estane. Trest by mohl m\u00edt podobu pozastaven\u00ed prodeje zbran\u00ed NATO za \u00fa\u010delem dovozu na Ukrajinu, vzhledem k jeho\u00a0<\/span>ostr\u00e9\u00a0<\/span><\/a>kritice\u00a0<\/a>bloku v posledn\u00edch dnech kv\u016fli jeho\u00a0odm\u00edtnut\u00ed pomoci\u00a0<\/a>USA s otev\u0159en\u00edm Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump se proto mus\u00ed rozhodnout, zda je d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, aby rusk\u00fd v\u00fdvoz ropy pomohl zvl\u00e1dnout glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetickou krizi, nebo aby Ukrajina zv\u00fd\u0161ila tlak na Rusko pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edmi \u00fatoky na jeho rafinerie za cenu zhor\u0161en\u00ed t\u00e9to krize. Pokud plat\u00ed prvn\u00ed mo\u017enost, pak mus\u00ed proti Zelensk\u00e9mu podniknout n\u011bjak\u00e9 kroky, zat\u00edmco druh\u00e1 mo\u017enost nazna\u010duje, \u017ee se p\u0159ikl\u00e1n\u00ed k d\u0159\u00edve zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9mu cynick\u00e9mu v\u00fdpo\u010dtu, kter\u00fdm je katalyzovat glob\u00e1ln\u00ed reset t\u00edm, \u017ee nech\u00e1 energetickou krizi zhor\u0161it. P\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed t\u00fdden by m\u011bl objasnit, kter\u00e9 z t\u011bchto dvou mo\u017enost\u00ed d\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159ednost.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dal\u0161\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho exportu ropy by mohlo v\u00e9st k prudk\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu cen, kter\u00fd destabilizuje glob\u00e1ln\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":103691,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,2856,371,3388,22,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103690"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=103690"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103690\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/103691"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=103690"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=103690"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=103690"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}